practice at the base and will clock police away. 7 months before russia attacked ukraine, a field team, documents, daily life, the town. how are the people from the clock dealing with the growing tension? change their world. hold on. we are with, you know, when i me insight starts going on dw, the for a short moment. it looked like vladimir putin and his russian empire were beginning to falter, triggered not by the courage of crating and counter offensive, but by its own mercenaries. the wagner group, we usually to stabilize museums and far away countries. ukrainian army assurance. we're trying to harness the momentum generated by this instability for it's counter offensive. but it is

a complex operation on several fronts. the same time there was growing concerned that couldn't. and the russian army could escalate further well backed into a corner. and there's the wrong result matter of what is to be done with the estimated remaining $25000.00 block number scenario from the uprising. so on to the point we ask, after pretty guardians results how strange is put in the system, the very world. welcome to this week's to the point time, have you had a guess? and i'd like to introduce my guess for today's program. like say, uso boss is a rush, the expert at germany's fleet is about stiff. don't me? quoted on the is a political consultant and security expert and not that yes, moly and say, why is my colleagues from dw russian service to all of you? thank you very much for being here. thank you for taking the time. try and make

sense of all that has happened and is happening. and alex, i'd like to start with you. there's pretty much 2 versions depending on who you listen to about what happened and rush, i wonder, is that tutoring successfully stopped an interaction and consolidated his power? the other one is that the version actually expose just how fragile the pollutant regime is. what do you make of that? which one is when the more time will pass up to the actual events, the more legends and myths, but also conspiracy is we're going to hear. so i think it's important to sorts and to actually spell out what we've seen. we've seen that is possible in the core territory, so the russian federation to seize a military headquarter, responsible for the war effort and ukraine, and soon it's possible to march towards moscow. and it's possible to not bear any visible consequences for it. after having killed the russian military service man, so to be honest, i don't see how you can frame this. we can see the attempt of the kremlin and let them important to react to the frame it as a national test. and actual challenge that the russians have overcome altogether.

and that sort of thing is that we haven't seen, not even a lot. we haven't seen any actual gen and resistance in favor of the system in the regime. and so put in an attempt to, to, to frame this as a moment of unity as part of the crisis response. clearly. and the crisis actually means that some of the assumptions we've had about the russian stability are flawed . and definitely there's a lot going on in the background that you probably don't understand right now. but just from a military perspective, how is it even possible to seize control of military headquarters in russia so quickly as going back a good bit as possible? because the forces for interior security and also the military forces inside of russia on not present any more. to me, it was a huge surprise that the headquarters in the last of which is the headquarters that controls all of the rest of the organs to train seem to be totally unpredicted protected. so progress and came in with his man. good morning. we have this on the control now all without any resistance with any,

without any single shot fired. this is from the perspective of security. this is a terrifying perspective and also then the from the board of gods to the traffic police, all the national guard into armed forces in all stuff and involved in this both cities with huge garrison's, nobody stopped developing a group. this is, i think, a bad sign for the stability of the rest of the states. and certainly for a military that is supposed to be so powerful, no natalia, we solve to organize what looked like an effort to showcase popular support. but with way less people than we're used to and in arrows to fund done, we saw people actually cheering the voc now troops when they came in. how do you explain that? well, this is a clear demonstration, what this public support of buildings, politics and the work extra looks like this people are just basically supporting what's going on. but you know, when there is going wasn't as much of the real estate as it's easy for them to

switch the band and cheer to this other. no, to regroup, they are just, they just looking at what's happening and don't be the we know for the supports investigation and if they didn't really march with them doesn't, doesn't mean that they wouldn't in the future. one, there is more and more military, more support from that. so i think and here in the west, everybody or a lot of people are saying, yeah, you know, the majority of russians are behind this war behind which we had there was, you know, i don't think they're behind. they're just, they're just waiting to see what happened and in this clear moment of, as we've now seeing them, the system is now. maybe they're corrects the more than we expected. we don't really know how they're going to react. and this is a clear picture of that. it seems like they simply go with the flow if you will, depending on who comes to their towns. now, you might have seen an armed insurrection coming in russia. the conflict between your guinea, pig, gordon, and the russian government, especially the military or nothing new. the revolt set the spotlight on the leader of the wagner group more than ever before. and this is what

a victor actually looks like. do you have any precaution after his aborted march on moscow? while he's been hailed as a hero by some, he's also hated and feared by the army leadership in the kremlin establishment. one's a favorite of food and a key player in the ukraine war until recently. he has turned against his benefactor, whether because of his frustration with a lack of support in the war or calculated power grab, his motivation, remains unclear. precaution is calling for a change and army leadership. and once brushes real motivations for the board to be exposed, according to precaution, it's about recognition and not suspected natal sabotage. you just almost the war was not needed to bring russian citizens back into our fold. nor to demilitarize indeed notify ukraine. experts say this statement isn't outrages provocation that wouldn't be possible without powerful supporters. is key gozine

acting on his own? or is he a mere carpet in the power struggle unfolding behind the scenes to succeed vladimir putin? that's a question many have asked. i would like to pass that directly onto you alex, is he a puppet? is he acting on his own? do we know what the problem with russian politics for a while? is that so much is staged on purpose that people start to actually get lost and what's going on. and i think what the thought is mentioned is people also in the rush to look at this whole thing and say, what is going on? equities in the west puppet is going too far. i would say she's definitely an interrupt printer, so he's a very, very talented actor who has learned that she can generate loyalty and success by accomplishing special projects. and so his history goes back to the learning, right. in st. peter's book time of both wasn't gonna put you in and if you need to, go ahead and get started as someone who was in the casino business and she moved onto the find mental conglomerates. then he was tasked with

a very important mission to more than nice russian state propaganda is created micro media and to the grim channels on the so called trail fact control factors. and the fact that was the next big thing for him to manage. if he's a manager who's not a field commander, she presents himself is one because he's very talented to understand. so there was a sympathy and there was a need in some parts of the russian population, including specifically the military part and the nationalist part to see an earnest war effort. because things are not sufficient thing that i'm going well. everyone knows that things are going well and so he feels this mish, so there is agency behind, they're getting pretty good and, but he's part of the system of setting up which is not an outside act or with his own. so we, again, it is our base, and so i think this whole thing was a play for a good deal for a better deal, or even to elevate himself pretty garden in the rings of the put into the youth. and she failed and obviously failed to realize can use a way off and maybe this is what we witnessed. so it's very interesting to have this perspective off because as a businessman now, because i would like to,

to ask if he agree with that perception that he is in line with land recruiting that there's basically no big deal between them. right now, do, do you agree? do you see that the same way? i think for some time now nobody can be really sure of is putting anymore his closest friends from former times to not have success. nobody seems to really know what he's thinking. and if you see the pictures of the security council sitting, it doesn't look like those people working closely to get our for 10 know 20 years or more every everybody is very distance from put in. and maybe this is also part of put into a power game to keep everybody a little bit in limbo. and nobody can be really secure in this position. but certainly many people fault because it has that kind of cover for important, at least for a long time. and he was an important instrument and rushed us war against a train. and this instrument is not available now anymore. we would see what this does to russians war effort, but i think most of all,

it was important that goes in as a former ally of put in clear you said, put into the reason for the war was a lie. it's all wrong and it's, i mean we knew that, but if it's coming from somebody like pickers, and i think that makes a big difference. and they also make clear that the rest of the state is by far not as stable as it looked like, especially to us. and also by the way to the chinese was seemed also be very shocked with what is going on. and uh, we have seen that uh, put in person, the power is by far not as consolidated as many people, but the inside russia and also outside russia. disagree. it's not a situation where we cannot really predict what is happening next. and it seems to me that the events unfolding now a day by day notice talk about the general generalize will begin. but maybe one point a does result during all of this administer of defend struggle who

is criticized a lot because he is more effort just not going well, because he is not really a military mazda mind. seems to be 100 percent loyal. he has one more even in professional military man. yes. but he has one more metal. no. or because he is 100 percent loyal. this has been is reputation since the you have seen time. so it seems to be the case that loyalty is more important than competence now, which might be good news for you, chris. we definitely will have to talk about what's next for you right now. and i thought i would like to just live on the point of the garden actually saying, or contradicting the very necessity of this war, which has been in the narrative of the kremlin. what impact do you think that has when you hear precautions say, this was not needed to save the russians and russia? i think it was actually one of the most interesting points and everything that happened because i would remind the whole logic of why the progression do this.

because if she only needed to like gain some benefits and then come back to the battle field, or maybe as somebody would say, replace. so who there or both ways get by some of them. why would she undermine the whole logical if this were, this doesn't, wouldn't make any sense. so we still remains to be seen what she's gamma was, but i think it was just and i came probably out of out of fear for she's life or for a future of 2 o'clock in there. and that's why she's extra is kind of be logically explained. but i think this is, this is, this is where it's coming from the gordon from a man who's been fighting, they're on the phone twice. the team doesn't see the reason of assisted you for this, for this can resonate with lots in they leave a lot of people who think the same, but they're not brave enough to say this. and maybe you can give them some ideas and how to challenge this, though. so those who are against the war actually found a voice there. now instead of a punishment or a death sentence, putting had surprisingly soft words for the very same soldiers who had called the

traitors just the day before. believe it, i do have sold the thing. so soldiers and commanders of the wagner group who made the only right decision, they did not go into fratricidal bloodshed. they stopped at the last line to see what and what to do. you have the opportunity to continue serving russia by entering into a contract with the ministry of defense or other law enforcement agencies. you but going to return to your family and friends, questions. it's more than anyone who wants to can go to bella roost. i will keep my promise we're just pulling in and that is something that kept a lot of people and a lot of experts guessing. and of course, we do not know what's gonna happen with the mercenaries, and with regard him himself, nico, when we talk about integrating all those troops into the russian military, just from a very practical perspective, is it easy to do? no. and to be honest, i think this is far from over. so,

just because to declare the 3 options now for them doesn't mean that they will go this way. they return to the base, but they still have to weapons to munitions and material. everybody will think for themselves what's best for them, but we are talking about soldiers that have been removed from the i'm false as before, and then found a home and box in a group. we have talking about fighters that have been fighting criminal was all over the world that are responsible for crimes against humanity and outrages uh dimensions. uh so i'm not sure if they have family and friends want them back home . we have talking about the people that were recruited out of prison prison. and that's, i mean that speaks against the alleged strategic genius of letting me put in to have people out of prison recruited for a brutal a troop like voc in a group. and now he has the problem of them being with weapons in the country. if they go to battle rose i am, i'm sure, because it's not clear what will be the business model,

or will the business model be taken over by somebody else? i mean, those business group is up for higher maybe they are also others in russia who have an interest of making the money that goes and made so far. so the, all those questions i think is we won't even understand the answers over a period of time, but for the process of rush for themselves to have people like dr. group or who has been fighting, not according to rules, that you have in a normal ami, who has their own understanding of discipline and older. i mean, they killed traitors with a hammer. so integrating them into the armed forces. it's more of a problem than really creating additional betsel value. so i think to combine those of the russian, i'm false as especially shall i go get him off and the top rouse, they will try to formally integrate them, but keep them out of sensitive areas because i think they see a problem to them. however, from the perspective of them,

your message that students trying to send alex, it does sounds quite simple. you know everything's over or you can either go there or you can be integrated into our forces and it's over. do you think this was a logic step to think uh, put in even have a choice of 22 bucks to do this. or the deal was announced by the founder location . and these baron meters will also given to the audiences later on. and so, putting, coming to the cameras, actually with the spelling about saving himself for me is a little bit also a guarantee to the recipients of the message to this is actually a real way all the extra legal. everything about this event is extra legal. there are no other precautions for those who killed. no russian got your service man. in the 6 helicopters and the one recognizance and planning claim, they shut down. they've been people killed on the ground or so there is nothing legally speaking. as a consequence, it's a deal to go ahead and phase apparently the families of those pilots and soldiers auto from his own pocket blood money. so it's

a quick existence of this world of personal deals between 14 and the members of he's a lead and the world is the, the world of the russian state institutions. and now they've collided. and one of the reasons for me that we haven't seen so much resistance is that in so many, many bureaucratic organizations, people thought this was a, this has an internal fight. so it's, we're not even let them find it out. and so the deal, i think is part of this part of the messaging on it for me. it is for me is putting, has completed a series of public statements now in a very short time, all of them, or even intensifying the narrative that this is something short or for civil war. that this was a national and national challenge. and then unity is the answer and so you can see even this deal and to play down and to say, look, this is not an issue. actually. you can go to a battleship with the home. you can go to the armed forces. it's dumpling, the actual problem, and at the same time, exaggerating the event of credit,

the amount of crisis management that the crown and investment would have successfully completed. this seems to be the strategy and i, i can batch that in the future. we'll see. she will travel around the country. she will meet with an orthotic church. she will maybe even go to the front lines. what we're seeing now is last electro complained kicking off. she's supposed to be elective next year, and everyone saw it. that's not going to be a big deal because you know elections. but at the current moment you can just not do it without any alterations. he needs to renew his image as a guarantor of internal stability underneath consensus because it's in question. so we're going to see a lot of more of this semester. we certainly will. the other big question and which also depends on that is what's gonna happen with the war and ukraine. whoever joins the russian military knows the likelihood of ending up and ukraine is greater than ever. on the other side of the border, ukraine is trying to take advantage of the domestic distraction of the enemy and move forward with its counter offensive. the pictures from the front near zap,

alicia, here the war is very close and any mistake could be fatal. tony, the ukrainian army is poking tiny holes in the russian army as we use the momentum caused by the wagner of 2. 2, we gain terrain on several sections of the front. however, rushing ariel supremacy is causing problems for ukrainian soldiers. the oceans, that's fire out a area every day. so the time to sell something just as important for the ukrainian army, however, is the battle in depth. far behind enemy lines. this includes a tax on transport hub like the recent incursion on the premium bridge, as well as munition depots and command posts. these are also part of the counter

offensive. the ukranian president, news about the pressure of his soldiers face to succeed in this counter offensive. can ukrainian army take advantage of the short term instability on the russian side? i'd like to ask that question to you. is you creating a better position? does the enemy have any weaknesses right now or did nothing really change? well, i think that was a big hope and key when they were looking at what's, what's happening in the stove and then last call. but well, i'm not a military analyst, but i don't think they've been, they've been lot of momentum there because the forces that were fighting on the phone line didn't go back to defend small school from for gordon, or anything that was not the big movement of troops the parsons, this, the precautions troops. so i don't think there has been a change, but certainly what did a change is the perception of a russian regime, which is really something solid. that's something that will be there long term

forever. and i think this is a good signal with use both. ok, but also for the west because it helps you know, equations with their, with their message that you know, give us what funds and they were losing the trauma which would crumble. it's a weight of crumbling, so this is now the moment to extra support us even more good news where you create and for the west, but there's also fear in eco, that rush, i might attack even more intensively. now, as a result of this, to keep up that image, what do you think of that? i wouldn't worry about that. i think it's a mis, especially the drum and debate, all the time to make the argument or something happens, then that will be escalation. i think putting this problem is he has no instruments to escalate just trying everything he can, but he's not achieving has been to tell the goals in ukraine. and he has to be afraid to lose ground now in ukraine because they are creating contents of offensive might be slow, but it's methodical. and it's preparing for great a brake shoes. put in the, as i think already at the moment is strategic defense position where he considers

it and it's cheaper meant if he can keep the lines more or less where they are now . so i wouldn't very much about escalation. what i would very is to systemic support from partners of your training, including germany and other western countries. because we are now at the point in time because of the long well where we need more industrial supports is not production, output, immunization in spare parts equipment and to production direct to ship to ukraine so that your brain can keep up the systematic methodical approach to discount or offensive? i think if we could fix that now and have understood that if putting comes under pressure, then he would fold. we have seen that because it did that. and then i think there's a good chance to for ukraine to uh, move forward. but it would not be a quick ending to do more. and i think also the instability, we're not contribute to the russian front. breaking down. so their mental dakota

approach has to continue. but the chances for your brain are quite good. and the fact that group alex was not officially involved in the war anymore even before this whole thing happened. but what do you think? does it mean for the training war to have the guardian in bella ruse to have potentially mercenaries in the room as well? do you see any impact of that? or 1st of all, we need to wait have to go to an extra. we're going to stay in the lowest business because eggs and door, but you can go further on if you might join some of the theaters to vacaville patients and start countries. but you, but i will suggest, you know, disappear from the visible sphere. so i wouldn't be too worried about him with wagner, let's see. that might be re branding. we have to see how many people actually take the deal because the deal was not for the whole group of dealers for every individual member of the doctor. so let's see about that. i see however, a much better chance for ukraine to over stretch the russian military. because one of the takeaways from put in science obviously is to strengthen the russian god, the national guard, to give them actually heavy weaponry in order to prevent the future scenario.

because now, even if they would have been willing to go in front of wagner and to stop them, but they, they are not the guys. we have a machinery as with heavy equipment, it's all on the front. so if you want to strengthen your national guard foot into security for domestic security, you need to take it from somewhere in whenever you're taking it from be at the front of the switch as a result for the russian nodes, which is good for the ukraine war effort, so this immediate effect is definitely going to be there. we don't have too much time left, but we do have time for a brief conclusion. i would like to go to the beginning of the show and the, and ask you how speaking is put in the system from nurse perspective then. well, i think this little instance actually shows that this is not as sold as we thought . and i think what we hear in the west have to be thinking about what comes after put in and whether we're prepared. sure, politically. but also like who is going to come next and or what is the rest of the position doing there? i think it's very interesting to see how different opposition leaders we access to the situation,

whether they were kind of supporting ben garza and or like cheering for this. he's a 1st all the we're just sitting in wait and didn't really post anything. so i think that's just kind of strategic planning has been lacking because nobody was actually thinking that this machine can fumble so easily to think there is a before and after alex we're in a new world. we're in a world where russia doesn't have the time. they thought the long term strategy is going to be just to sit it out and wait because your greens going to collapse the population is tired. the europeans are either a little bit sophistic on, maybe not willing to pay for it. the americans have an election. we can just sit out and wait the strategies over. so we are gonna complete the new phase of this work. a very brief intervention from you. a few seconds left. how striking a splitting system to, to turn systems are stable until they are not the russian without put in as possible. that we should not be afraid of that. and where is the worst of people? i know thank you also to natalia and alex and of course to you for watching.

remember, you can always watch our shows on our youtube channel and comment on this weeks and oliver sims, i'm call you and i guess until next time, take care. goodbye. the, the, the

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