what do you see? it really is possible to reverse the researchers and scientists all over the world for you know, race against time. they are peers and rivals with one daring goals to help smart nature. the more likes watching it on youtube dw documentary, the how role did you have any per goshen really go in his wagner uprising? has russia seen the last of him that looks like he goes and balls, skills and his people are still important for which in addition, several areas, for instance, in africa. my guess this week on complex own is russian investigative journalist and security services expert. andre still got off his odds and to our website

tracts, the russian intelligence services will put in perch the system which is really good at conducting repressions, especially against his own people who have several s. as the people in jail that have ministers sends out, governor sends out how long can put and hold onto our andre. so that. 8 welcome to the complex phone. thank you for having me. you are in contact with whistle blowers and the russian security services wanted precaution really stopped his march towards moscow. while, because it was never about trying to take power and to take moscow, it was about rand negotiator in his deal with foods and as a minister of defense. and the ones you understood that he miscalculated, that he wanted to still to get some figure out the best situation. so his son, his columns to most scowled, but it was most of that to apply for a time when find that he got what you wanted, or this, what he could gets out of the situation. his stuff. nevertheless,

he got quite far and it's being called the most dramatic challenge to put in his authority since he came to power 23 years ago is promotion. still a threat to putting things the biggest, the biggest uh, fraud is not. it goes into a said bob did reaction that was an army, and that was the russian security services. everybody understood that big wars and while he might be extremely adventurous, yes, he has a lot of people on the his come on several files and people bobs, xerox and of the army is what matters now and give us the fact that nobody wanted to stop recording and the security services that people have a put in charge of providing the political stability or follow up, which is great. gym did absolutely nothing as a f, as b local office. central stuff on don't does party candidates themselves and the headquarters that signed a very warning signal to puts an end to moscow bad. it's not all okay. and these

people who are in charge of, well protected him actually do nothing. then nevertheless, the kremlin has been trying to dismiss the uprising, calling it minor trouble. in contrast, you have the use top people, not warning the prudent has lost the monopoly of force and an unstable russia. it becomes a risk. how serious do you see the uprising and how fragile is the russian state? again, i think the problem is not the only bit because on here is uh, an extremely interesting color to bob's. uh, his, uh, the options are limits. he doesn't have any uh, law public support provided by other members selves. there are some that leads for instance, and ottoman didn't support hamilton late. bought several things to be happened during the visit prize. and reg seemed a warning, for instance, fizz um now infamous of asia aware a big was listed in together verify depth to me to self defense. yes. cor off. and

so is that, that you had that there are some military intelligence alex save and a shave in life. a bod, xyzzy off taking all gates and actually show you're going to rush them off. well, that's because opposite the shore can for me and i immediately contact with my source, i sense a rush and security to services and special forces and ask them what do they think? and the bozza idea of that you have to tell us how those there are some boots for intelligence. uh, basically saying, while you can have them, if you want. uh, and my people said, wow, actually i like say it was right. and i think that was even more worth some 4 points. and because in this case you have the most capable of madison's russian, middle tray and russian security services, publicly questionnaire, and uh, submit a tray, i dare say. given all of that, what you've just highlighted there, how much support do you think from corrosion might have had covertly from inside of

the security service? it is the military, the leads because i mean, it appeared that his human is wagner mercenaries that they meant no resistance. yes, absolutely. the once again, i just wanted to stress as a f, as be decided to do the opposite of to nothing. and they had and they control online, something like, why did they fail to stop if getting promotion is what wagner uprising earlier? why was the biggest uh, i think the answer is that separate goes on is, is it kind of, maverick, he's not part of the system. so for the system, for the russian system of intelligence, security, 10 minutes for instructors, that's where the difficult to understand his place. and position everybody understands that it's all about putting precaution personal connection. and the problem is nobody knows, for instance, uh, what is this connect soon as we speak. so maybe it's really bad, maybe is getting better, maybe is getting worse. so we don't now the general social,

they didn't know at the moment, those uprising what might be that connection. and they just decided to wait and see . you highlighted one particular point in your previous writing, um the fact that the security service in particular, in moscow, they called on wagner fighters to go and arrest your guinea per goes in their own leader. and this is especially extraordinary because the speeds, military counter intelligence, operatives are within wagner's ranks. how are you seeing this? because this is their job, isn't it isn't, isn't it a huge break and loyalty to the kremlin? how would this be being viewed right now by putting himself as a really good question because i was this office and for people like us from outside their selves, the system always acts as be off cost. it looks like a complete file. these people that put that to water into cumberland involved the problems which might come up out of, of the walk in a group as that was a primary drop. right? uh, and as i says be, is not only about to impressions. that's about prevention risk. i'm not saying

stuff happened and so they felt that there's up so it's there. but the same times a problem this puts in is that he is to some extent parts of the system. just remember that he is a trained kids, you'd be officer. and in the similar circumstances, so 2 years ago and that's and that's $11.00, is it kids you'd be in some wild people as a parent and they're all wanted to stage occluded, taught and topple gorbachev. most of the ranks are inside of the kitchen being decided to do exactly the same to wait and see what's in absolute in last thing. his friends, people, he now respects and who on now is a i'll on, is a key positions and as a russian security services the all the, the same be absolutely nothing, nothing and not to not to one. so you'll have this strange, emotional thing, shape and all false statement that actually when something really big is happening

is not up. there's a security services to decide when to opt, which is up, so that uh, concept protective. uh, but never said that. they have it up. senior pentagon officials have highlighted that the uprising highlights poor coordination between the military and other security services. can you give us a window into how deep the connections are, for example, between the military rushes security services and wagner in particular? well, 1st of all, i'm, i do not completely agree with this assessment. just remember that as a paid time off is uprising, the russian army kept finding that you're brand new and comprehensive. that it was no collapse of all is the russian forces as a bottle filled. so the only thing they failed to face and the auction to deal with was this particular mutant in offering garzon. and here you have all the problems. beller says lucas jenko said that he ultimately broke,

or the deal that sa precaution has wagner force has a band in their march toward moscow. is lucas shank over 2w2w colton. or did he save him? well, i think, oh, the whole think about bill are we sound? look, i think our participation of cause made puts and locus to me a week. just remember that for many, many years push it was promoted with things that idea and mac can ad sacrifice the idea of national southern see that was such a big thing that you can ball just to find all kinds of pressure on this. if you want to while to promote this thing, and that is why they got those refreshments in our country because it is a wake off national, southern, and mile one because a real problem. pushing got the kids a real problem. while he left his mind to pop that uh, alexander walker, son gotta go fix his internal program. so it does with look for pollution. really good lucas ankle also saying that promotion is now in bella roost. although there's been no independent confirmation. he also hasn't been heard for it from in more

than a week. what do you think is happening to per goshen is the soul lives? well, it's difficult to say, but i think he's still very much alive for us to fall. what as well as his grades, the situation is really difficult to understand what is going on bob's better of several interesting science plus default, the whole think about criminal charges. so it's changing. but as far as i guess on the side of as far as that everybody got it as a criminal charges find that adult, which is a big thing because one puts in and to come in wants to expel somebody for real. well, you have the criminal charges, it gets to be a spouse. and for instance, in my case, i'm a wanted man in russia and i have criminal charges against me. so if i ever get back to the county, i am facing up to 10 years in prison, and that is a guarantee i was never getting back. but for precaution, i decided to make an exception, so that has no criminal charges. so legally speaking, but as nothing to prevent him from getting back to the same pitch as vogue to

moscow to all that. now it's just safe at this pontiff, his business and pot for goes. you know, i mean he's, he's been promised this immunity. we have to say um, but he got, richard was as close ties to put in now put in his actually mentioned that the finances of precautions lucrative catering firm will be investigated. how do you see that? is this a signal that he could actually be prosecuted for financial crimes. busy or, you know, was put in just trying to take them down to notch. i think it's about some parts of precautions, business, business and bar. because of course it, there's some companies that are assigned. they've been that for years spot. they had no chance. now they got to his chance so that trying to win this, so contracts provided by the government times administer of defense. mothers looks like regardless ball skills and his people are still important for puts in addition in several areas, for instance, in africa. and it looks like uh you come in doesn't want to completely dis,

bond walk now. and was that activation say in the middle standing africa progression had been railing against the top military brass for months. ultimately, he said that the kremlin state of reasoning behind the war in ukraine was false. why did pruden allow the threat posed by promotion to fester for so long? well, pushing on the stands that is very clear that even in most or of unpopular wars could produce very popular generals. and these generals, at some moment my become a political fact that happens many times in russian history. pushing understands that he understands that he cannot do that to go. so he wanted to have some counterbalance to that, some sort of maverick from might expose the problems in submitted tray and to peep middle trade generals off balance. that's exactly what was the role of precaution

for all of these months. let's talk about the wagner motor scenario. griffin, what happens to them next? they've been thrown into disarray. the fight for control is said to have just begun . lucas tango has invited mercenaries to relocate to in a band into military base in the country. there are some reports of new satellite images appearing to show tents being set up in, in belarus, to that effect is that their best offer to go to bella roost. and are they likely to take it? well i think that that some moments put in just decided to relocate robin or to save his public image as someone who's still on uh in control of the situation. and then because it was stuck in relation to have well, by the soldiers, martian of the, they're all, it's in russia. so he decided to really catch him, him to bill our was. but that's cause, i mean, wagner has no other customers by the russian stage. biller, which is very much penetrated by a bunch of russians. uh so it's not like he was expelled to some independent

country and all the free shop lot. scott, that's not true. the us says that right now, they're continuing to see some elements of the wagner group in russian occupied territory. and ukraine. ukrainian intelligence says that wagner will not fight in ukraine any more. do you think that wagner in ukraine will go willingly. uh uh, it's about an interesting question that we have some reports uh recently actually today that uh, some wagner about offices. they use it as the states months that they stopped for truth and people uh right now for funds. and then ukraine bots um the language to be used as better and biggest is like we have stuff in for now. so maybe the outpatient for some of the office over to full, maybe they would get would be given, then you name. so, but i think somebody minutes of this group, the fonts and as they did before, let's talk a little bit more about how russians are viewing all of this ukranian presidents. the landscape says that moscow has been suffering full scale weakness. he calls it

for goes and has apparently tapped into the view that putting is a, is a corrupt system where the ruling, the lead had been emerging themselves and are more interested in please in put in then doing what is right for national interest to ordinary people. that that's a message which seems to have resonated how high is the dissatisfaction with bruton and food newsom as well, uh, in the middle of the tray. uh, the rear is a clear uh, spinning sized russian generals as old as on not extremely competent. and it's a, it's a very interesting in our wonderful situation because it is right now that the russian army is gazing, vision you fall and confidence in themselves. because actually is, are you crazy on the fence or physics seem to slow all that is the perception of the russian army is not my perception, but that's not how they sees a situation they, they fear that it could be a really big know of

a c it's not that big and not back horrible. uh so that gets in this sense alpha. uh, that sound not actually bad. bad. uh at the same time, but keep lame is age and you're all set and that is why they support that to some extent of silence. or they may be p gordon's criticism because they share the same feeling. but it does move that, that ready to just don't think about it. so they still got approval and the sit in class, they need to find visible federal for very long time. is that, but here's how the, the head of the c, i a, is framing the situation. he says that this affection with the world will continue to not away at the russian leadership. and that it creates a once in a generation opportunity for the c. i a to recruit spies in russia. you are very familiar with the security services. do you think that the c, i will find fertile ground for recruitment as well? i think rather be, as you know, there's a lot of wishful thinking. yeah. we're trying to audit to find every sign of,

of descent as a, as a signal that the system will inevitably collapse. and i know as a, in the model for several months, i would be extremely, i would be more cautious to be honest. it's not likely that lots of people accepted xyzzy. i was wor, includes as a rushing to, let's put you on this. what are you good at conducting repressions, especially against his own people. we have several s as the people in jail. they have ministers in jail governance in jail. so it is a big thing for the russian society and lots of people in their lives found the stands i. that's actually there is no way for them but to stay and to stay loyal to pruitt's. and so i would say, i would say that for c, i a, it's might be end up as soon as it uh, but i would be cautious also, the program is bad to say which one is the best people, but that it was a chance for defection with and right now for the rest of the lives, because a folder restrictions, so for travel, i mean the suck with easy to,

to make it through europe. all it isn't as a stays the chances that the same people as a russian, that is what the think ok, maybe now as thought spine. so there are many concerns about. so give me, give me a chance to, to move on to the events and not to stays that quite slim coating since the uprising he has been seeming to be bent on projecting normalcy and stability. we've seen him ramping on public appearances, and the week after the uprising, he gave a number of national addresses for training the rebellion. as a heroic episode, he travelled to the southern region of dag of san, where he sipped local cognac. he spoke about growing regional tourism, he even attended a technology fair in moscow. what are russians make of that? or are they buying it? well, no, not all of them off gums. so especially in big stages, bugs and proven, says you have lots of people who are still very supportive of boats and they accept as a russian propaganda adoption of the of. and so that puts you on my and your acid to

avoid blood shit on to some extent you did actually have that. it was no real big launched it. uh, except for this uh, unfortunate pilots and it is appropriate for the middle of tray. not for that population provision, i mean his rants. they really offer this alternative to the war propaganda. for many russians in unvarnished glimpse from the front lines you highlighted the useless and unjustified losses. convulsions really go back to regularly scheduled programming. well, that's a good question, but i think what the goal is really wanted to do, he wanted to become some sort of, uh, uh you will press it for since the russian society all we have is a license to uh, tags or us. and it leads to mobilize the rest of society, puts in, doesn't want that. he still thinks that it's possible to win the business war if filed the total mobilization. but we don't know what might happen if say you agree

on the offensive goes with the success of fall. we just don't know that might change the situation and well, if that changes, there might be new space and your own fault with doors and then people are, can, let's talk about prudent for us to shore up his power. first of all is a crack don't underway, as that is one thing to which is clear. uh, also it gives us services as army as a national gallery. they loan, is it less than that? why do you have a program is on a sort of circle of pollution is about to not to interfere. and i think it is a very bad signal for points and because, well what if tomorrow some of the guys say could do it? of all someone, all the rest of the security took on sale. now come opposite the russian television and say, wow, i'll wasn't sure why the manager will go to hell and we need to replace, give someone that would be a huge confusion by this class right now. you,

if you look at the overall situation, though, russia's most senior generals, they, they've dropped out of you since the uprising. i'm thinking about general ross him of, he's report the not appeared in public. he's of course, in charge of the war effort and ukraine. the kremlin has also been deflecting questions about the whereabouts of general so, or the can who is seen as aligned with precaution and believe to be detained. what do you think is happening to them? a while it's really difficult to understand. i've been checking the information about sort of a can for all these days. it looks like the reports about he was sent to prison, we kind of confirmed them, but he said it seems that he was at least until a gate as and it's quite interesting vibes we uh, hit and visit rumors. it bows and middle trick generals, but not about security services, which is a very interesting thing. while you have these people, i'm, is f as b as a national guard. all of the security services pulled in charge of putting his

personal security it, and political stability. it is yet all the questions that come to has it's all about the imagery. how much impact do you think these events of the past weeks are going to have on the war and ukraine? um, it's a good question because on the one hand we see that walk in our didn't participate directly. uh, at least in big numbers and uh, and trying to sell you brand new content offensive. it is a jump for the regular russian army. while at the same time walk, there is still a very capable force and they have his reputation ends. there are some miller trait yet there is new confusion. now because of the, obviously i'm using, it stays by longer because of this policy who upheld full opposite to nothing. well, which is of course, enough of as was about to be spiel of his pilots were killed because of a on another the russian heroes. but it was a middle track here and is that, that it would be no justice for the fall of his policy. and that samuel is,

nobody would be prosecuted for keeping this, this policy and that credit and you confusion, it means that it has a re, regular army still find in the bottle failed. you have a non boss product minutes. your company is as an ottoman now, is looking at risk product mutual company, as well as some suspicion because these guys over is approved frederick and kill russian soldiers and they can get away the fed. so these kind of confusing and long dollar my sites and situations about the felt the ukrainian counter offensive has, has not yet achieved significant success. according to nato's top commander in europe. do you think that now there is more pressure on putting to end the war? no, i don't think so. i think what which and understands is uh uh very was such a big investment in inside of your brand new encounter offensive. uh, wallace was a big thing for, for that you brand new on government's was that you bring and they just ship. it

was a big thing from h. f was a west in russia. it was played as assigned as a russian army. well, i have the and actually it was not extremely uh, great uh is the beginning of the war, but vegas and bats are. there's this, uh, there is a strange feeling now, especially because it's all about history and the 2nd world war and all of that. so there is these ideas shaded by man, yet by russian army over his dogs of war, and the very bad shape, but a different bassa on the way, and put you on this trying to capitalize on vis spelling. i'd like to ask you one last question about the uprising the wagner uprising because many are concerns that a food does fall. the concern is that a replacement leader could be worse crumbling, critical krakowski said the following. we glimpse how the regimes inevitable fall is likely to come about and the forces that we'll seek to take over so called national patriots, led by another sog. if you look at the big picture,

do you think that russia is ultimately doomed to have one sog replaced by another? after putting of all our thoughts into it might happen because as a more visible goes, is it more as the russians the sides is getting used to visible? and now the, i guess it is a motional argument and save opposite will because there's so many casualties. there's so many people killed and even the people who felt well confused about the beginning of the war. now they have visited in growl and my villas someone get killed by these ukrainian. so why should i feel story and balance of all. so and some, and some way the support for that was guessing all it's not big about it's, it's most stable and it means that the whole system of the society projection itself does idea that while it's going to be with a long war. and in the long war you get people like general sand, why,

while using very tough language, more and more and more popular pop law. and at some moment they might get some miles from position in depaula. now that's true. how long do you think putting has well, i think is we are talking about 2 years under so that definitely have to leave it there. thank you so much for joining us on conflicts on a thank you, the

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