because of her courage and how she thinks most rain. so today wise mother annoyed for nearly 4 decades. she's for peace for the for brace of freedoms in your home, then they run in spite of bob berry covent prizes. our children should not inherit science from us the an income. if you look into the nice just the stats, july 29th on t. w. put disarray in russia. mean gain for ukraine. although it's cut or offensive has made slow progress. moreau rose following the failed march. on moscow, by the wagner group, whose brutal tactics have spilled much ukrainian blood, the longer term fate of wagner's mercenaries could well be decided the neighboring villa roofs, where the groups leader in thousands of its forces appear to have set

a cap with explicit approval from its on for a tarion leader, alexander lucas jacob. so we're asking nuclear weapons and wagner in belarus, a threats to ukraine and data, the hello, and a very warm welcome to to the point. it's a pleasure to introduce our guest beginning with called on my scholar. he is professor of international relations at the board of despair, university in munich, and a member of the nato defense college. it's also a pleasure to welcome maxime at some of the k is a fellow at the carnegie rushing. you raise your center. you previously covered russian foreign policy, eastern europe, and the balkans for the independent russian use website sloan dot r u. and finally, it's a pleasure to welcome my rena rector. why she is senior officer at the german marshall

fund, or an in the bell or risk capital against she has written extensively about her homeland. so let us talk briefly, 1st of all about where ukraine's counter offensive stands at this point, and carlo the well known russia expert is on cost of said not too long ago that last year, every day that russia wasn't winning, it was losing. but that today, the same could be said of ukraine. would you say that's true or so does it simply reflect elevated and perhaps unrealistic expectations on the part of many nato allies? i think the letter is true. i mean, everyone expects that the condo offenses going as good and this quickly as in september, last year, is that led to the liberation of the house on executive. but russia had 4 to 5 months of time. uh, 4 to 5 months time to prepare against the condo offensive and defensive position.

so very well and build up there are more than 30000 minds late in the sales of, of ukraine. and ukraine simply is at the beginning of the comprehensive, i mean, we see for live pre gates trying to destroy as much as possible russian equipment and going into what we call you a got com, which is a special form of tactics. so there is no quick progress to be expected. this will take long. we are right just at the beginning. and actually right now at the moment the russian on forces and do you planning on forces? i like higher bit like 2 restaurants. i mean that basically crashing against is out and trying to push everyone, you know, a bit further away and we will see how this will develop. but it's too early to say that the counsel offensive has failed. we are very, very beginning. and the next week, some months will show basically whether the ukrainians are able to pursue a successful cancer offensive, or whether we will end up in a kind of the trench war of for the next months and used to come. maxime,

did you expect the situation on the battlefield to be influenced by the turmoil that we've been witnessing in russia since the wagner group of mercenaries attempted an insurrection of failed march on moscow? will that, or is that already having an impact? nowhere to actually, surprisingly, even viewing them you today, there was a very little impact on the situation on the ministry front and ukraine. and now when the mutiny is already settled, and actually the whole crisis is sorted out more or less sorted out even inside russia. not expected to cause any problems for russian army actions in, in ukraine. because wagner was not pato freshman between careful to, since may more less. it does though seem to have boosted ukrainian morales somewhat because apparently as it was happening, soldiers were sending each other messages that indicated a certain a certain germans would say shot. and for the true true,

because the russian demonstrated the strong internal divisions where i'm actually some possible for russian security establishment is ready to white other pods was it, we see that these hoops or fails to realize the situation is already resolved without causing any major problems for russian army and marina mits, this turmoil in russia, there was one a parents, and rather surprising winner named me beller. this is for terry and liter, alexander the cushion co who in fact in his eyes helped us save the day by uh, by brokering a kind of a, a solution to the stand off between the wagner group and put in what if anything, do you think will change going forward to do to lucas shank goes intervention or for bella, who's um i don't think that much can change. yes, we've seen some very symbolic various here. it was symbolic gains that location

comp personally received. she can patrice himself now as a um, independent regional axa. he is back to the display of the, from pages of international media. but basically what that means internally is that she is becoming more dependent on a russia and on. she has a relationship your own. he has in he has a that's there, lies on poor, tend to, uh, to stay in power and is russia more dependent on him? i know i wouldn't seize this this way. i'm afraid that this is a, this is a relationship where one pod and that is a you can only cold the spot in a junior one. and we'll come back to that a little bit later at any rate, thanks to what lucas shenker is portraying us is peace making efforts. if any

precaution, the leader of the wagner mercenary force and long a close associate of 14, is now reported lee in exile in bel, i was following his groups aboard as march on moscow. whether that makes him a less or threat, or a greater one to both 14 and ukraine, remains unclear whether you have get any precaution himself is still in bel air bruce. and how many of his allegedly 25000 wagner mercenaries will follow him, is still unclear. the satellite images allegedly shows that around $300.00 tents had been set up for up to 50 men each on a former military base. there also unconfirmed reports of 2 further accounts. strong men lucas shane co wants to benefit from the wagner fighters. yes. but it definitely is still, their instructors come and pass their combat experience along to us. we will accept it with premium with the is countries neighbors are alarmed. ukraine fears the 2nd

front and the north end is strengthening its border with beller, bruce, the baltic states and poland. all nato members also feel that their security is increasingly threatened to g. issue. what has been happening in russia lately? i mean, the complete subjugation of bella rouge a little. she says the transport of nuclear weapons developers, but also the transfer of thought their troops to bill every scene. soil. that's what it all of this shows that the threat is real as that goes on. you have chose so well. wagner, soldiers and bill over is a growing threat to nato and ukraine. the straight over to carlo. would you say this is very earnest and growing threat? no, absolutely not. i mean, 1st of all, we don't know what precaution is right now. look, i think i said this morning that he's still in russian. 2 days ago he said that

he's in bella was we have no idea how many voc, not a soul just will basically go to the levels if they may, if they will go to battles and the stationing of new tale weapons, tactical nuclear weapons and launch us in, in battles is not the new kind of threat because russia already had them in cleaning it up. so i mean, this doesn't pose in use you kind of all threats from natal to ukraine. the, the big issue. everyone is expecting that voc might open a 2nd front from, from the noise to go to kia. and it's like this is a scenario the ukrainians have since the very 1st day of the world. so they have prepared for that. and to 1000 buckner soldiers won't change the threat level with regard to that ukraine has 45, even if they are one of the most bloody groups that has been fighting. right. but they have to cross the boulder, they have to cross the mine fields. the credit is not prepared because they were expecting from the very 1st day and i mean rush or went from from bellows and tried

to, to go to p if from the very 1st day they have this scenario that they might be basically a 2nd front. so they're prepared for that. it's not the new threat level. let me ask maxine if he has anything to add to that assessment, but also i would like to know how much of the value of the threat the wagner group and precaution remained to put to himself. i think we have to look at 2 things, mani and arguments. and while the door has last accessed both to russian states, subsidies and to russian arguments. and without that what, what would be able to do? it's very do bits. yeah. because of the past success of walking or was very much based on huge russian subsidies which wouldn't admit of himself and was accept full excess to russian ministry. industrial complex for sure. lucas shank is not able to provide precaution in his walk in or even if they're allowed to go with this same level of support. so i don't think that and why nor should be treated as a seed risk wrapped. and inside the country, we see that the opponent has already been resolved precautions approval. reagan has

collapsed his original. your country inside the pressure inside rush. right? yeah. inside russia, he is no longer popular. is oregon. the russians just several days of tv propaganda? um, can you uh, organize in the right way or in his rate? uh wagner. so what do you remember as a walk northside join in the russian ministry over your fans ranks? they have no longer again access to our romance or they are handed in the heavy arm of meals to rush in. when you scroll through fast, we have almost nothing left. and so we shouldn't exaggerate precautions, personal careers, my and the ability to cause trouble to everybody on the global scale. and maxine, just briefly, it's essentially, as you have said, the wagner group acted as a kind of the putting outsourced to him functions that often would normally be carried out by the regular army under the defense department. he's now trying to close that pandora's box again. but will he succeed?

this is by no means the only private militia in russia are yeah, it's awful. well, all the probably with maybe malicious. i'll only kwasic probably with the fact that we financed in directly or indirectly by the state. and actually of course, there was some problems in this process of regaining state monopoly and violence and the mutiny. it was the biggest one, but now it's behind us. so it's not the only question which remains open is what is the future of voc, not in africa. i mean the russian state used voc not to pursue de interest in africa and they are still there and molly and central africa. so the question is supporting local warlords in those executives, will they be now part of the regular russian armed forces which will be a new situation because then russia officially is actively engage military. and some of these countries all basically will voc not be re named out like was a black rock who basically changed name every 55 months and be another private

village. every company acting. so the i was thinking like water. nope, thankful. and now the private printed every company acting for the russian states in, in africa. and i think it's an important aspect because you're saying a technical nuclear weapons the reckoning, riots are coming to the levels being most of the levels. it's not that the bill of the senior regina is going to control annual center and this is still russia that utilizes below the level sim period. 3rd, basically for its military purposes, none of us. let me ask you this, because if you're here, the remarks that a or terry and leaders because shank a made a in our report there is very much sounded like he was thinking or trying to convey the impression that the wagner group mercenaries in his country would somehow bolster his own power and you know, i wonder whether that's just bluster or whether there might be something to that, that lucas shank was looking at this as a card that he could possibly play. these are the proteins. um, i'm not sure how the,

if location that is involved in any kind of planning or console patients with the kremlin. uh, what's going to happen to the wagner group. so he might be, uh, this might be his wishful thinking. that since this very well trained and very experienced, a troop is point is going to be embed levels that he can. um, again, have some gains from it. and because the bill ocean, what comes to belittle so now? i mean, it's not that the equipment is the most mode and it's not that they are very that, that, that the numbers uh big and they basically have no experience. and miranda you said a moment ago when i was asking you about all this, you said that in fact, there is one of the country that is very much the junior partner here and that is bell. i rose. some observers go farther and say, actually it's a vassal state now to russia, and possibly russia has aspirations to simply swell up bill. i bruce,

at some point, would you agree with that? and would you say that what we're seeing now? what's happening makes that more or less likely. what we're observing now is definitely further erosion of solvency and the territorial integrity of barrels as an independent country. um, we can definitely, let's say that the, both the dictators look, i shrink it in fulton on the call on a lot of things because we're still see them visiting each other. that there are loans coming from russia to the levels of meaning that puts them as not interested in the bellows and folks, for example, joining the russian soul just on the your premium. but battlefield, if there are plans of any further or more formal code for incorporation of bilo scheme to russia, the appropriate not on the table yet. because otherwise,

if the i could probably be too easy. and if the color, if i can come back to your um, your last remarks about you were pretty sanguine that there isn't a big new stretch here now due to bel, the risk. but if i can just push back on that a little bit of a stage allow its territory to be used for staging the initial russian invasion. because like into you create bella roost as also allowed his territory to be used as the side of summer caps for ukrainian children who has been abducted by russian forces and brought a, essentially to val evers. and now those tactical nuclear weapons. i know you said this is nothing new. nonetheless, those are 3 areas in which some of the neighboring countries, including 1st and foremost, poland are growing at g. b. s. villages say this is not really a big threat. no, it's not in use, right? i mean, we got to look so the russian, i'm forces use the territory to get into ukraine and they failed. since then,

we have reports that put in this trying to convince google shankar to become actively engaged. and ukraine was his own armed forces. and this guy for, for various reasons refused as money. she said everything, no, come, but experience, bad equipment. you know, i'm not very more than i'm forced to and the public is against. yeah. there's also in do is quite some resistance within the armed forces to, to be, to become engaged in ukraine. so, nuclear weapons, these weapons are not in professional from crushing. these are russian nuclear weapons stations in battle. if they are stationed, we even have no confirmation about that. so yes, if i were a poll i would, i wouldn't feel comfortable to have, you know, now leaving that off and grayed out, it was, was technically in the weapons. but the situation hasn't deteriorated and insecurity . turns out these are still russian, tactical new russia could hit colon from russia, from colleen and got so the poles on the these kinds of threats by texting because

you could have weapons already since a long time. yeah, this is basically a very stable instability. this has been submitted for that. the we've been observing for no, for the last 10 years program. nonetheless, you said uh just no under your breath when i asked, does that make bell or was a threat to poland. you said, i believe under your breath. well, you know, no wonder they're worried. and the other thing that poland says it's witnessing is the weapons ization of migrants by bella roo speller was shaking migrants across the border again to destabilize that shared border with poland, which is a data. well yeah, was sent a lot of crazy things and the last 2 years with cash and cars, stop the ryan. they have play and coming from athens to many as the rest of the one to 6 year old journalist. so again, this is, this is just nothing new and it's, it's probably a part of a, of a cy up the that's, that, that's a blackmail coming from russia. and i think timing is also attending that next week

and nato summit that's taken place for the columbus as away from the little some border. and then again, this is nothing new. but a of the, the then if sheets fee keeps the, the, the, the discussion, stephanie. so let's talk about that nato summit. it actually is going to be taking place in lithuania again, right there in the middle of this stable we and unstable region. and there are some big challenges on the agenda, maxine including both turkey and hungry, holding up swedish accession and also many member countries wish that ukraine would now get a firm offer a firm invitation to become a nato member. do you think we'll see any kind of breakthrough on either of those? i don't think it we're praying. going to get to the firm commitment from native from nate, with that to ukraine will be comments member, it's 2 will be conditional all the and all the war. and the end of the war is

somewhere in the future in a certain future and planning the ball with the end of the war just now has no sense. and so i guess you created will get some new assurance that is probably the transformation of the, of the creation of the nature of creating costs. they learn some of the perks to enhance that the state are. so a copy of coal duration between nato and you're creating but any membership, i think it's still not on the table. let me ask you carlo. also in your capacity as a, as a diplomatic expert. some of the arguments that are being made are on the one hand, look, if we make a definitive offer to ukraine, that will create more clarity and thereby detour or proteins from prolonging this conflict. that's one argument on one side. the other side says that the sort of vague provision, no promise that was made to ukraine, back in 2008 out of nato's summit,

was one of the most destabilizing factors that help to prompt the current conflict. how does those 2 arguments play out in your mind? do you think ukraine should be given a firm offer? no, no, i don't. i mean, i agree totally. ukraine won't get a firm offer. no ukraine at the best will get the message that once the war is over, the native will start negotiating for membership with with the ukrainians. and i think this then is the did the turing effect. if now ukraine gets a firm date, this will not deter putting, it might even contribute to an escalation because he wants to get the job done before the confirmed date of, of an open date on membership. let me say secondly, this whole thing about 2008 is one of the russian spelled, and this will be dismissed. 2008. the formula was the attendant of a macro and total. and i think at the time to prevent as

a nato membership of ukraine and georgia because the den bush administration wanted them to be member. and it was about georgia less than been in ukraine, but the wanted them to give them membership right away. and this was basically the, the, the compromised formula that they all could agree on, on, on, on the final communicate. but it was intended to basically postpone ukraine your membership. let me ask you um, maureen, their president lucas, shank lucas shank has called the strengthening of nato's eastern flank. the greatest ever threat for of global conflict. should nato hear those words? should nato actually try to kind of damp down any actions that could heighten tensions with uh, with press with lucas echo if it's never help before? why it's going to work this time? can i ask a question? what to, to do? i mean, what's with this guy? do which basically really destabilize will,

threatens nato. he doesn't have the armed forces. he has nothing at this is disposal to really create a kind of security threats to the lines exec speaking to a domestic audience. he's not speaking basically to, to the international audience. he has no kind of a window of opportunity due to the mutiny. he portrays himself in front of his people as the guy who's not pollutants photo. whatever i want is also demonstrating, speaking to, to the crown that as well as the domestic audience. so you must write and write the loyalty that hands on the sides of the crown, and the criminal has nothing to worry about special dismissal. next audience, marina, and let's bring it back briefly to lucas chateau. he and his disputed election in 2020 prompted mass protests that went on for many, many months. the opposition by lead estimate lynette's you have given that sky is working tirelessly from exile to try to challenge him how stable is, is up there before a terry as well. so far, so good, so stable, so as with any,

all sorts are also retire and structures. it's very as because they also in transparent this very difficult to say how um, how long will look a shock, a survivor if for instance, fulton is out of criminal and the story with, if it goes and then use any on one single day, revealed a lot about the russia that probably even for the russian leadership, what's quite new. um, they're also rooms that look, i think that might be terminally ill. i don't know how much of this is again, wishful thinking. uh, but we are looking into it into a black box on the one hand. on the other hand, we're talking about the leadership and regional trends. but what is often times overlooked that since 2020 and the mass pro this mess repressions never stopped. 1500 people,

we got the nicest place to go present this and this is not visited by font, not, not the, the real number. if people receive draconian sentences all the pen 1720 years for joining a peaceful protest which was being accessing the co trustee and supporting the independence of the country that uh, basically the, the, the greatest danger. but the look of shank is posing nowadays. this is a to his own people and carlo very briefly. a few was apparently look to shake a likes the peace making world because he is now saying he could help to broker peace between preteen and bite, and then inviting them to come to bella roost. in fact, he did host talks earlier that produced the minutes accords in 2014. so should we so i'm hoping negotiating with this man. no different than off because the situation in ukraine is not the rightful negotiation. as long as rush, i believe that can win more by pursuing this war, then running the risk of flu,

things. there is no way even for kind of serious peace negotiations like same great, yes or no. no, no, no, no, no stance in negotiating with him. we can just look at the way he did great over the past few years from being a means can negotiate that to be in any located between ground and pretty good. thank you very much. talk with you for being with us. thanks to our audience. so you said the

enters the conflicts. how wrong did you have any precaution really go in his wagner uprising, my guess is to be done comp facility is russian, investigative journalist and security services expert. andrea full data is added to our website tracks the russian intelligence center. how long include pulled up about the

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