karen g, more people than ever on the news world volume in such a fashion, life? facile, jessica admitted god. castle. josh: the piano, is it a mac on the car? battery or something then that's okay. that's the nanda foundation. one book sitting on, find out about me being a story in some language, reliable news for migraines. wherever they may be. put disarray in russia mean gain for ukraine. although it's cut or offensive has made slow progress. merot rose following the failed march on moscow by the wagner group, who's brutal tactics of spilled much ukrainian blood. the longer term fate of wagner's mercenaries could well be decided the neighboring villa roost,

where the groups leader in thousands of its forces appear to have set accounts. and that's not the only threat developers is housing. to the consternation of eastern european nato members, russia is also deploying tactical nuclear weapons and belarus with explicit approval from it's on for a terry and liter, alexander lucas. shank. so we're asking nuclear weapons and wagner in belarus, a threats to ukraine and data, the hello, and a very warm welcome to to the point. it's a pleasure to introduce our guest beginning with carlo masala. he is professor of international relations at the board of sphere university in munich, and a member of the nato defense college. it's also a pleasure to welcome maxime at some of the p as a fellow at the carnegie russia eurasia center. you previously covered russian

foreign policy, eastern europe, and the balkans for the independent russian news website sloan dot r u. and finally, it's a pleasure to welcome marina over at clyde, she is senior officer at the german marshall fund, or in the bell or risk capital mince. she has written extensively about her homeland. so let us talk briefly, 1st of all about where ukraine's counter offensive stands at this point, and carlo the well known russia expert is on cost of said not too long ago that last year, every day that russia wasn't winning, it was losing. but that today, the same could be said of ukraine. would you say that's true or so does it simply reflect elevated and perhaps unrealistic expectations on the part of many nato allies? i think the letter is true. i mean, everyone expect that the condo fences going as good and this quickly, a as in, in september last year is that led to the liberation of the house on executive. but

the rush i had 4 to 5 months of time. uh, 4 to 5 months time. to prepare against the condo offensive and defensive position, so very well and build up there are more than 30000 minds late in this house of, of ukraine. and ukraine simply is at the beginning of the comprehensive, i mean we see for live pre gates trying to destroy as much as possible russian equipment and going into what we call yet got come, which is a special form of tactics. so there is no quick progress to be expected. this will take long, we are right joseph the beginning and actually right now at the moment the russian on forces and do you planning on forces? i like higher bit like 2 restaurants. i mean that basically crashing against is out and trying to push everyone, you know, a bit further away and we will see how this will develop. but it's too early to say that to counter fences has failed with the very, very beginning. and the next week,

some months will show basically whether the ukrainians are able to pursue a successful cancer offensive, or whether we will end up in a kind of you trench war of for the next months. and you have to come, maxine, did you expect the situation on the battlefield to be influenced by the turmoil that we've been witnessing in russia since the wagner group of mercenaries attempted an insurrection of failed march on moscow? will that, or is that already having an impact? nowhere to actually, surprisingly, even viewing them you today, there was a very, at least impact on the situation on the ministry front and ukraine. and now, when the mutiny is already settled, and actually the whole crisis is sorted out more or less sorted out even inside russia. not expected to cause any problems for russian army actions in, in ukraine. because wagner was not possible for us to meet with careful to, since may was, it does though seem to have boosted ukrainian morales somewhat because apparently

as it was happening, soldiers were sending each other messages that indicated a certain a certain germans would say shot. and for the true true, because the russian, you must make it there are strong internal divisions where i'm actually some possible for russian secuity is tablet you meant is ready to fly out of the pots. was it we, we see that these hoops or fails to realize the situation is already resolved without causing any major problems for russian army. and marina mits, this turmoil in russia, there was one a parent and rather surprising winner. and then the beller was of thor terry. and leader, alexander of the cushion co, who in fact in his eyes helped us save the day by, uh, by brokering a kind of a solution to the stand off between the wagner group and put in what if anything, do you think will change going forward to do to lucas shank because intervention as

for variables. um i don't think that much can change. yes, we've seen some very symbolic various here. it was some bullet gains that location car personally received. she can patrice himself now as a independent regional act. so he is back to the display of the, from pages all the international media. but basically what that means internally is that he is becoming more dependent on is russia and on. he has a relationship your own. he has in his a that's their lives on ports in to the staying power and is russia more dependent on him? i know i wouldn't seize this this way. i'm afraid that this is a, this is the relationship where one pod and that is a you can only cold the spot in

a junior one. and we'll come back to that a little bit later, at any rate, thanks to what lucas shanker is portraying us as peace making efforts. if any precaution, the leader of the wagner mercenary force and long a close associate of 14, is now reported lee in exile in bel, i was following his groups aboard as march on moscow. whether that makes him a less or threat or a greater one to both put in and ukraine remains unclear whether you have get any pre, goshen himself, is still in bell or bruce. and how many of his allegedly 25000 wagner mercenaries will follow him, is still unclear. the satellite images allegedly shows that around $300.00 tents have been set up for up to 50 men each on a former military base. they are also unconfirmed reports of to further accounts. strong men. lucas shane co wants to benefit from the wagner fighters. yes. but it

definitely is still their instructors. com and pass their combat experience along to us. we will accept it with premium with the is countries. neighbors are alarmed . ukraine fears the 2nd front and the north end is strengthening its border with beller, bruce, the baltic states and poland. all nato members also feel that their security is increasingly threatened to g issue. what has been happening in russia lately? i mean, the complete subjugation of bella rouge a little. she says the transport of nuclear weapons to bela roost. but also the transfer of thought their troops to bela re seeing soil. that's what it all of this shows that the threat is real, the cause then you have chose so well. wagner, soldiers and bell over is a growing threat to nato and ukraine. the straight over to carla, would you say this is an very earnest and growing threat?

no, absolutely not. i mean, 1st of all, we don't know what precaution is right now. look, i think i said this morning that he's still in russia 2 days ago. he said that he's in bella was we have no idea how many voc, not a soul just will basically go to the levels if they may, if they will go to. but it was the stationing of nuclear weapons, tactical nuclear weapons and launch us in, in barrels is not the new kind of threat because russia already had them in cleaning that up. so, i mean, this doesn't pose in use you kind of all threat to natal or to ukraine the, the big issue. everyone is expecting that the box might open a 2nd front from, from the noise to go to kia. and it's like this is a scenario the ukrainians have since the very 1st day of the world. so they have prepared for that and to 1000 box. and so will just won't change the threat level with regard to that. ukraine has 45 even if they are one of the most bloody groups

that has been fighting a sponges. they have to cross the bulls are they have to cross the mine fields. the credit is not prepared because they were expecting from the very 1st day and i mean rush or went from from bellows and tried to, to go to p if from the very 1st day they have this scenario that they might be basically a 2nd front. so they're prepared for that. it's not in use rep level. let me ask maxine if he has anything to add to that assessment. but also i would like to know how much of the value of the threat, the wagner group and precaution we made to put in himself. i think we have to look at 2 things, money and arguments. and while the door has last accessed, both the russian states subsidies and to russian arguments. and without that what, what would be able to do? it's very do bits. yeah. because of the past success of walking or was very much based on huge russian subsidies which put in admit of himself and was accept full excess to russian ministry industrial complex for sure. the question k is not able

to provide precaution in his walk in or even a very allow to go with this same level of support. so i don't think that and why nor should be treated as a seed risk wrapped. and inside the country, we see that the opponent has already been resolved precautions approval. reagan has collapsed his original, your country inside the restaurant, you're inside russia, you're inside russia. he is no longer popular as ordinary russians just several days of tv propaganda. um, can you uh, organize in the right way or in his rate? wagner or so what do you remember as a walk in those i joined in the rush in the history of your fans ranks. they have no longer again access to our romance. they are handed in the heavy arm of meals to rush in. when you scroll defense, you have almost nothing left with. and so we shouldn't exaggerate precautions, personal careers, my and the ability to cause trouble to everybody on the global scale. and maxine, just briefly it's essentially as you have said. 3 the wagner group acted as a kind of the putting out sourced to him functions that often would normally be

carried out by the regular army. under the defense department. he's now trying to close that pandora's box again. but will he succeed? this is by no means the only private militia in russia. i is also one of the pri, with maurice malicious only quasi, probably, with the fact that we financed him directly or indirectly by the state. and actually of course there was some problems in this process of regaining state monopoly and violence. and the mutiny it was the biggest one. but now it's behind us. so it's not the only question which remains open is what is the future of voc, not in africa. i mean the russian state used voc not to pursue de interest in africa and they are still there and molly and central africa. so the question is, supporting local warlords and those executives, will they be now part of the regular russian armed forces, which will be a new situation because then rush hour officially is actively engage military. and

some of these countries all basically will lock in a be re named out like was a black rock who basically changed name every 55 months. and be another private college, every company acting. so the think you mean like want to know thankful. and now the private printed every company acting for the russian states in, in africa. and i think it's an important aspect because you're saying a technical nuclear weapons, the wagner riots are coming to the level being most of the levels. it's not that the bilo seniors in of go into control annual center. and this is still russia that utilizes bill. it'll be a little sim territory basically for its military purposes. none of us, let me ask you this because if you're here, the remarks that of or terry and liter lucas shank a made in our report there. it's very much sounded like he was thinking or trying to convey the impression that the wagner group mercenaries in his country would somehow bolster his own power. and you know, i wonder whether that's just bluster or whether there might be something to that,

that lucas shank was looking at this as a cards that he could possibly play. these are the poor 10. um, i'm not sure how the, if location is involved. and so any kind of planning or consult patients with the kremlin, uh, what's going to happen to the wagner group and he might be uh, that might be his wishful thinking. that since this very well trained and very experienced, a troop is point is going to be embed levels that she can. so again, we have some gains from it and because the bill ocean, what comes to belittle sion? i mean, it's not that the equipment is the most mode and it's not that they are very that, that, that the numbers uh big and they basically have no experience. and miranda you said a moment ago when i was asking you about all this, you said that in fact, there is one of the country that is very much the junior partner here and that is

bell. i rose. some observers go farther and say, actually it's a vassal state now to russia, and possibly russia has aspirations to simply swallow up bill or bruce at some point. would you agree with that? and would you say that what we're seeing now? what's happening makes that more or less likely. what we're observing now is definitely further erosion of solvency and the territorial integrity of barrels as an independent country. um, what can definitely, let's say that the, both the dictators look, i think it in fulton, on the call on a lot of things because we're still see them visiting each other. that there are loans coming from a rush at the developers. meaning that which them is not interested in the billows. and folks, for example, joining the russian soldiers on the your premium, but battlefield if there are plans of any further or more

formal code for incorporation of the little scheme to russia. the appropriate not on the table yet, because otherwise, if the i could probably be too easy and it's a color so i can come back to your um your last remarks about you are pretty sanguine that there isn't a big new scratch here. now due to bel, the risk, but if i can just push back on that, a little bit of a stage allow its territory to be used for staging the initial russian invasion into ukraine. beller. bruce has also allowed his territory to be used as the site of summer caps for ukrainian children who has been abducted by russian forces and brought a centrally to val evers. and now those tactical nuclear weapons, i know you said this is nothing new. nonetheless, those are 3 areas in which some of the neighboring countries, including 1st and foremost, poland, are growing at g. b as those you say,

this is not really a big threat. no, it's not in use, right? i mean, we got, look the russian on forces use the territory to get into ukraine and they failed. since then we have reports that put in just trying to convince google shane got to become actively engaged in ukraine. was his own armed forces. and this guy for, for various reasons, refused as much as she said everything. no, come, but the experience bad equipment, you know, and not very more than i am forced. jan, the lowest in public is against. yeah. there's also in do is quite some resistance within the armed forces to, to be, to become engage in ukraine. so, nuclear weapons these weapons on not in professional percussion. these are russian nuclear weapons stations in battle. if they are stationed, we even have no confirmation about that. so yes, if i were a pole i would, i wouldn't feel comfortable to have, you know, now leaving it off and grayed out. it was was technically in the weapons. but the

situation hasn't deteriorated and insecurity. turns out these are still russian tactical nukes russia could hit colon from russia, from colleen and got so the poles on the these kinds of threat by texting because you have weapons already since a long time. yeah, this is basically a very stable instability. this has been submitted to that. the we've been observing for no, for the last 10 years, probing. nonetheless, you said just know under your breath, when i asked does that make beller was a threat to poland. you said, i believe under your breath. well, you know, no wonder they're worried. another thing that poland says it's witnessing is the weapons ization of migrants by bela roo speller was shaking migrants across the border again to destabilize that shared border with poland, which is a data. well, yeah, was sent a lot of crazy things. and the last 2 years with cash and cars, stop the ryan. they have play and coming from athens to many as the rest of the one to 6 year old journalist. so again, this is,

this is just nothing new. and it's if it's probably a part of a or a cy opposite. that's a, that's a blackmail coming from russia. and i think timing is also attending that next week and they to assignment of taking place for to columbus away from the little some border. and then again, this is nothing new, but a of the, the then if sheets fee um, keeps the, the, the, the discussion stephanie. so let's talk about that next as somebody actually is going to be taking place in lithuania again, right there in the middle of this stable, we in unstable region. and there are some big challenges on the agenda. maxime, including both turkey and hungry, holding up swedish accession, and also many member countries wish that ukraine would now get a firm offer a firm invitation to become a nato member. do you think we'll see any kind of breakthrough on either of those?

i don't think that we're creating, going to get to the firm commitment from need to go from nate, with that to ukraine will become its member. it still will be conditional all the and all the war and the end of the war is sound way or in the future in uncertain future and planning the ball with the end of the words just now have no sense. and so i guess you created will get some new assurance, is probably the transformation of the, of the creation of the nature of creating costs. they low some of the perks to enhance that the state are. so a copy of coal duration between the 2. do you agree, anybody, any membership? i think it's still not on the table. let me ask you carlo. also in your capacity as a, as a diplomatic expert. and some of the arguments that are being made are on the one hand, look, if we make a definitive offer to ukraine, that will create more clarity and thereby deterring proteins from pro longing. this

conflict, that's one argument on one side. the other side says that the sort of big provisional promise that was made to ukraine back in 2008 out of nato summit was one of the most destabilizing factors that help to prompt the current conflict. how does those 2 arguments play out in your mind? do you think you can should be given a firm offer? no, no, i don't. i mean, so i agree, totally. ukraine won't get to for often. no ukraine at best will get the message that once the war is over, the natal will start negotiating for membership with with the ukrainians. and i think this then is the, the deterring effect. if now you can gets a firm date, this will not deter reporting. it might even contribute to an escalation because he wants to get the job done before the confirmed date of, of an open data membership. let me say secondly, this whole thing about 2008 is one of the russian spelled. and this will be

dismissed. 2008, the formula was the attendant of malcolm and portal. and i think at the time to prevent as a nato membership of ukraine and georgia because of the den bush administration. want them to be member and it was about georgia less. and then you know, ukraine, but wanted them to give them membership right away. and this was basically the, the, the compromised formula that they all could agree on, on, on, on, on the final communicate. but it was intended to basically postpone ukraine your membership. let me ask you, miranda, have president lucas shank? look a shank has called the strengthening of nato's eastern flank. the greatest ever threat for of global conflict. should nato hear those words? should nato actually try to kind of damp down any actions that could heighten tensions with uh, with pressed with lucas echo?

if it's never how before, why it's going to work this time? can i ask the question, what you, what to do? i mean, what's with this guy do, which basically really destabilize will, threatens nato. he doesn't have the armed forces. he has nothing at this is disposal to really create the kind of security threats to the lines exec speaking to a domestic audience. he's not speaking basically to, to the international williams. he has now kind of a window of opportunity due to the mutiny. he portrays himself in front of his people as the guy who's not pollutants poodle. they might want is also the most raging speaking to, to the crown that as well as the domestic audience. so you must write and write the loyalty that hands on the sides of the crown. and the criminal has nothing to worry about. special dismissal arguments, marina, and let's bring it back briefly to lucas. shank, co. he and his disputed election in 2020 prompted mass protests that went on for many, many months. the opposition by leaders of atlanta to have come,

that sky is working tirelessly from exile to try to challenge him how stable is his off there before a terry and so far so good, so stable pets. um, as with any, all sorts are also a tire and structures. it's very as because they also in transparent this very difficult to say how um, how long will look a stroke. a survivor, if, for instance, fulton is out of kremlin and the story with the pin goes and then use any on one single day, revealed a lot about the russia that probably even for the russian leadership, what's quite new. um, they're also rooms that look, i think that might be terminally ill. i don't know how much of this is again, wishful thinking. uh, but we are looking into it into a black box on the one hand on the other hand. so we're talking about the leadership and regional trends,

but what is often times overlooked that since 2020 and the math pro, this mess repressions never stopped. 1500 people, we got the nicest click to go present this and this is not visited by font, not, not the, the real number. if people receive draconian sentences all the 101720 years for joining a peaceful protest which is being ex, if in the co trustee, and supporting independence of the country that uh, basically the, the, the greatest danger. but the look of shank is posing nowadays. this is a to his own people and carlo very briefly. if you would apparently look a shake of likes the peace making world because he is now saying he could help the broker piece between preteen and bite and then inviting them to come to bella roost . in fact, he did host talks earlier that produced the minutes accords in 2014. so

should we somehow be negotiating with this man? no different than off because the situation in ukraine is not the rightful negotiation. as long as rush, i believe that can win more by pursuing this war, then running the risk of flu, things. there is no way even for kind of serious peace negotiations like same great, yes or no. no, no, no, no, no stance in negotiating with him. we can just look at the way he did great over the past 2 years from being a means can negotiate that are being a negotiated between the ground in pretty good. thank you very much. talk with you for being with us. thanks to our audience. so you said the

entered the conflict. so how rogue did you get a precaution really go in his ladder uprising. my guess is to be done complet. soon as russian investigative journalist and security services expert andre full data is added to our website tracks. the russian intelligence,

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