is of her courage and how she thinks, now serene. so today wise mother annoyed for nearly 4 decades. she's for peace for me, for brace of freedoms in their home, then they run in spite of love buried trifles. our children should not inherit science from us. the an income, if you look into the nice task, july 29th on t. w. put disarray in russia. mean gain for ukraine. although it's cut her offensive has made slow progress. moreau rose, following the failed march on moscow by the wagner group, whose brutal tactics have spilled much ukrainian blood. the longer term fate of wagner's mercenaries could well be decided in neighboring philip bruce, where the groups leader in thousands of its forces appear to have set accounts. and

that's not the only threat developers is housing to the consternation of eastern european nato members. russia is also deploying tactical nuclear weapons in belarus, with explicit approval from it's on for a terry and leader, alexander lucas jacob. so we're asking nuclear weapons and wagner in belarus, a threats to ukraine and data, the hello, and a very warm welcome to to the point. it's a pleasure to introduce our guess beginning with cause on was found out. he is professor of international relations at the board of despair, university in munich, and a member of the nato defense college. it's also a pleasure to welcome maxime of some of the of he is a fellow with the carnegie rushing. you raise your center. he previously covered russian for an st. eastern europe and the balkans for the independent russian news

website. sloane dot r u. and finally it's a pleasure to welcome marina class. she is senior officer at the german marshall fund, born in the bella risk capital mintz. she has written extensively about her home lout. so let us talk briefly, 1st of all about where ukraine's counter offensive stance at this point, and carlo the well known russia expert is on cost of said not too long ago that last year, every day that russia wasn't winning, it was losing. but that today the same could be said of ukraine. would you say that's true or so does it simply reflect elevated and perhaps unrealistic expectations on the part of many nato allies? i think the letter is true. i mean, everyone expects that the council fence is going as good and this quickly as in september last year, is that led to the liberation of cassandra?

exactly. but russia had 4 to 5 months time. uh, 4 to 5 months time to prepare against the condo, offensive, and defensive positions a very well and build up. there are more than 30000 minds late in the sales of, of ukraine. and ukraine simply is at the beginning of the comprehensive. i mean, we see for light pre gates trying to destroy as much as possible russian equipment and going into what we call yegell come, which is a special form of tactics. so there is no quick progress to be expected. this will take long, we are right just at the beginning and actually right now at the moment the russian on forces and do you planning on forces? i like higher bit like 2 restaurants. i mean that basically crashing against is out there and trying to push everyone, you know, a bit further away. and we will see how this will develop. but it's too early to say that the account offensive has failed. where is the very, very beginning,

and the next week, some months will show basically whether the ukrainians are able to pursue a successful cancer offensive or whether we will end up in the kind of you trench war of for the next month. and you have to come, maxine, did you expect the situation on the battlefield to be influenced by the turmoil that we've been witnessing in russia since the wagner group of mercenaries attempted an insurrection of failed march on moscow? will that, or is that already having an impact? no, to extra surprising, even due in the you today, there was a very little impact on the situation on the ministry of rock and ukraine. and now the mutiny is already settled. and actually, the whole crisis is sorted out more or less sorted out, even inside russia. don't expect it to cause any problems for russian army actions in, in ukraine. because wagner was not pato freshman, between careful to seems way more as it does though, seem to have boosted ukrainian morales somewhat. because apparently,

as it was happening, soldiers were sending each other messages that indicated a certain a certain germans would say, shot and forward to a true true because russian demonstrated the strong internal divisions where i'm actually some possible for russian security establishment is ready to white. other pods was it we, we see that these hoops or fails to realize the situation is already resolved without causing any major problems for russian army. and marina mits, this turmoil in russia, there was one a parent and rather surprising winner named me beller, was october terry and leader alexander of the cushion co, who in fact in his eyes helped us save the day by uh, by brokering a kind of a solution to the stand off between the wagner group and put in what if anything, do you think will change going forward to do to lucas shank because intervention.

as for bella, who's um i don't think that much can change. yes, we've seen some very symbolic various here. it was symbolic gains, the location comp personally received. she can patrice himself now as a independent regional actor. he is back to the display of the, from pages all the international media. but basically, what that means internally is that she is becoming more dependent on a russia and on. she has a relationship it on he's in, he has a that's their lives on puts in to uh, to stay in power. and is russia more dependent on him? i know i wouldn't seize in this this way. i'm afraid that this is a this is the relationship where one pop and that is the you can only hold the spot

in a junior one. and we'll come back to that a little bit later. at any rate, thanks to what look shanker is portraying us as peace making efforts. if danny precaution, the leader of the wagner mercenary force and longer close associate of 14, is now reported lee in the exile in bel, i was following his groups aboard as march on moscow. whether that makes him a less or threat or a greater one to both put in and ukraine remains unclear whether you have get any pre, goshen himself, is still in beller bruce. and how many of his allegedly 25000 wagner mercenaries will follow him, is still unclear. the satellite images allegedly shows that around $300.00 tents have been set up for up to 50 men each on a former military base. there are also unconfirmed reports of 2 further accounts. strong men lucas shane co wants to benefit from the wagner fighters. yes. but it definitely is still their instructors. com and pass their combat experience along

to us. we will accept it. premium with the is countries. neighbors are alarmed. ukraine fears the 2nd front and the north end is strengthening its border with beller. bruce, the baltic states and poland. all nato members also feel that their security is increasingly threatened to g. issue. what has been happening in russia lately? i mean, the complete subjugation of bella rouge a little. she says the transport of nuclear weapons to bela roost, but also the transfer of thought their troops to bella. ricin soil. that's what it's all of this shows that the threat is real, that as that goes on, you have chose so well. wagner, soldiers and bell over is a growing threat to nato and ukraine. the straight over to carlo, would you say this is and very earnest and growing threat?

no, absolutely not. i mean, 1st of all, we don't know what precaution is right now. lucas hancock said this morning that he's still in russian. 2 days ago. he said that he's in bella was we have no idea how many voc, not a soul just will basically go to the levels if they make, if they will go to bundles and the stationing of nuclear weapons, tactical nuclear weapons and launch us in in barrels is not the new kind of threat because russia already had them in cleaning it up. so i mean, this doesn't pose in use you kind of all threats from natal or to ukraine the the big issue. everyone is expecting that voc now might open a 2nd front from, from the noise to go to kia. and i said this is a scenario do ukraine's have since the very 1st day of the world. so they have prepared for that. and to 1000 bucks and sold joe's won't change the threat level with regard to that ukraine is 45 even if they are one of the most bloody groups

that has been fighting sponges, they have to cross the boulder, they have to cross the mine fields. the credit is up prepare because they were expecting from the very 1st day and i mean rush or went from from bellows and tried to, to go to key if from the very 1st day they have this scenario that they might be basically a 2nd front. so they're prepared for that. it's not the new threat level. let me ask maxine if he has anything to add to that assessment. but also i would like to know how much of the value of the threat, the wagner group and precaution, we need to put in himself. i think we have to look at 2 things, money and our women's. and while the door has last accessed, both the russian states subsidies and to russian arguments. and without that what, what would be able to do? it's very dubious. yeah. because of the past success of walking or was very much based on huge russian subsidies which wouldn't admit of himself. andrews except full excess to russian ministry. industrial complex for sure. lucas shank is not able to provide precaution in his walk in or even if they're allowed to go with

this same level of support. so i don't think that and why nor should be treated as a serious wrapped and inside the country. we see that the opponent has already been resolved precautions approval. reagan has collapsed his original, your country inside the pressure inside rush. right? yeah. inside russia, he's no longer popular. is oregon. the russians just several days of tv propaganda? i'm scared of organizing the right way or in his rate wagner. so what do you remember as a walk into a side join in the rush and the history of your fans ranks? they have no longer again access to our one man. so they are handed in the heavy arm romance to russian menu, scroll defense, we have almost nothing left. so we should things we to read precautions, personal careers, my and the ability to cause trouble to everybody on the global scale. and maxine, just briefly it's essentially as you have said. 3 the wagner group acted as a kind of the putting outsourced to him functions that often would normally be

carried out by direct taylor army. under the defense department. he's now trying to close that pandora's box again. but will he succeed? this is by no means the only private militia in russia. i, it's all for all the pride with me, we should malicious. i'll only kwasic pride what the fact that we financed in directly or indirectly by the state. and actually of course there was some problems in this process of regaining state monopoly and violence. and the mutiny it was the biggest one. but now it's behind us. so it's not the only question which remains open is what is the future of voc, not in africa. i mean the russian state used voc not to proceed a interest in africa and they are still there and molly and central africa. so the question is, supporting local warlords and those executives will they be now part of the regular russian on forces which will be a new situation because then rochelle officially is actively engaged military. and some of these countries all basically will voc not be re named out like was

a black rock who basically changed name every 55 months. and the be another private college, every company acting. so the i was thinking like, want to know that grow and other private attendants, every company acting for the russian states in, in africa. and i think it's an important aspect because you're saying a technical nuclear weapons, the vector riots are coming to belittle being most of the levels. it's not that the bilo seniors in is going to control annual center. and this is still russia that utilizes bill. it'll be a little sim pair. 3rd, basically for it's me to serve purposes. none of us. let me ask you this, because if you're here, the remarks that authoritarian leader lucas shank a made in our report there is very much sounded like he was thinking or trying to convey the impression that the wagner group mercenaries in his country would somehow bolster his own power and you know, i wonder whether that's just bluster or whether there might be something to that at

that lucas shank was looking at this as a card that he could possibly play. these would be poor to um, i'm not sure how the, if location that is involved in any kind of planning or console patients with the kremlin. uh, what's going to happen to the wagner group. so he might be, uh, that might be his wishful thinking. that since this very well trained and very experienced, uh, troop is point is going to be in the levels that he can. um, again, have some gains from it and because the bill ocean, what comes to bills to nami? it's not that the equipment is the most mode and it's not that they have a that, that, that the numbers uh the big and they basically have no experience. and miranda you said a moment ago when i was asking you about all this, you said that in fact, there is one of the country that is very much the junior partner here and that is

bell. i rose. some observers go farther and say, actually it's a vassal state now to russia, and possibly russia has aspirations to simply swell up bill. i bruce, at some point, would you agree with that? and would you say that what we're seeing now? what's happening makes that more or less likely. what we're observing now is definitely further erosion of solvency and the territorial integrity of the levels as an independent country. um, what can definitely, let's say that the, both the dictators look, i think it in fulton on the call on a lot of things because we're still see them visiting each other. that there are loans coming from a rush at the to builders. meaning that which is not interested in the below. some folks, for example, joining the russian soul just on the your premium, but battlefield, um, if there are plans of any further or

a form of calls or incorporation of bilo scheme for russia. they are probably not on the table yet, because otherwise, if the i could probably be too easy. and if the color, if i can come back to your, um, your last remarks about your pretty sanguine that there isn't a big new scratch here now due to valid risk. but if i can just push back on that a little bit of a stage allow its territory to be used for staging the initial russian invasion because like into you create bela bruce as also allowed as territory to be used as the site of summer caps for ukrainian children who have been abducted by russian forces and brought a, essentially to val evers and now those tactical nuclear weapons, i know you said this is nothing new. nonetheless, those are 3 areas in which some of the neighboring countries, including 1st and foremost, poland, are growing at g. b. s. villages say this is not really a big threat. no,

it's not in use, right? i mean, we got, look the russian on forces use the territory to get into ukraine and they failed. since then we have reports that put in this trying to convince google shane got to become actively engaged in ukraine. was his own armed forces. and this guy for, for various reasons, refused as much as she said everything. no, come, but experience bad equipment, you know, and not very more than i'm forced. jan the lesson probably because again, yeah, there's also in there is quite some resistance within the on forces to, to be, to become engaged in ukraine. so nuclear weapons, these weapons are not in processional percussion. these are russian nuclear weapons stations in battle. if they are station we even have no confirmation about that. so yes, if i were poll i would, i'm, i wouldn't feel comfortable to have, you know, now colleen and get off and they thought it was, was technically in the weapons. but the situation hasn't deteriorated. and

insecurity. turns out these are still russian tactical nukes russia could hit colon from roger from cleaning that. so the polls on the, these kinds of threats by texting to nuclear weapons already since a long time. yeah, this is basically a very stable instability. this has been submitted for that. we have been observing for no, for the last 10 years program. nonetheless, you said just now under your breath, when i asked, does that make bell or was a threat to poland? you said, i believe under your breath. well, you know, no wonder they're worried. another thing that poland says it's witnessing is the weapons ization of migrants by bela roo speller was shaking migrants across the border again to destabilize that shared border with poland. which is anita. well yeah, was sent a lot of crazy things. and last yes, what question? does this stop, say a brian they have play and coming from athens to many as the rest of 26 year old journalist. so again, this is, this is just nothing new. and it's, it's,

it's probably a part of a, of a sy up that, that's, that, that's a blackmail coming from russia. and i think timing is also attending that next week . and they to summit of taking place for the kilometers away from the little some border. and then again, this is nothing new, but a, the, the then if sheets the, keeps the, the, the, the discussion stephanie. so let's talk about that need to somebody. it actually is going to be taking place in lithuania again, right there in the middle of this stable lee and unstable region. and there are some big challenges on the agenda, maxine including both turkey and hungry, holding up swedish accession and also many member countries wish that ukraine would now get a firm offer a firm invitation to become a nato member. do you think we'll see any kind of breakthrough on either of those? i don't think it,

we're praying going to get to the firm commitment from need to go from need with that to ukraine will become each member. it still will be conditional all the and all the war and the end of the war is sound way or in the future in a certain future and planning the ball with the end of the war just now have no sense. and so i guess you created will get some new assurance, is probably the transformation of the, of the creation of the nature ukraine comstock alone. some of the perks to enhance the state are so copy of coal duration between nato and you're creating, but any membership, i think it's still not on the table. let me ask you carlo. also in your capacity as a, as a diplomatic expert. and some of the arguments that are being made are, on the one hand, look, if we make a definitive offer to ukraine, that will create more clarity and thereby detour, or put in from pro longing this conflict. that's one argument on one side. the

other side says that the sort of big provisional promise that was made to ukraine back in 2008 out of nato summit was one of the most destabilizing factors that help to prompt the current conflict. how does those 2 arguments play out in your mind? do you think your credit should be given a firm offer? no, no, i don't. i mean, so i agree, totally. ukraine won't guide the firm offer no ukraine at the best will get the message that once the wars over the native will stop negotiating for membership with, with the ukrainians. and i think this then is the detouring effect. if now you can gets a firm date, this will not deter putting, it might even contribute to an escalation because he wants to get the job done before the confirmed date of, of an open date on membership. let me say secondly, this whole thing about 2008 is one of the russian spelled,

and this will be dismissed. 2008, the formula was the attendant of macklin and portal. and i think at the time to prevent the nato membership of ukraine in georgia because the dennis bush administration wanted them to be member and this was about georgia less and then you know, ukraine, but wanted them to give them membership right away. and this was basically the, the, the compromised formula that they all could agree on, on, on, on the final communicate. but it was intended to basically postpone ukraine your membership. let me um, ask you um, maureen, their president lucas, shank lucas shanker. has called the strength ending of nato's eastern flank. the greatest ever threat for of global conflict. should nato hear those words? should nato actually try to kind of damp down any actions that could heighten tensions with a, with pressure with lucas echo if it's never help before?

why it's going to work this time? can i ask a question? what you, what to do? i mean, what's with this guy do, which basically really destabilize will, threatens nato. he doesn't have the armed forces. he has nothing at this is disposal to really create a kind of security threats to the lines exec speaking to a domestic audience. he's not speaking basically to, to the international audience. he has no kind a window of opportunity due to the mutiny. people trace himself in front of his people as the guy who's not pollutants, poodle. but everyone is also demonstrating, speaking to, to the ground and as well as the domestic audience. so you must write and write the loyalty that stands on the sides of the crime in the criminal has nothing to worry about special dismissal. thanks audience, marina. and let's bring it back briefly to lucas shank of he and his disputed election in 2020 prompted mass protests that went on for many, many months. the opposition by lead estimate lynette's you have given that sky is

working tirelessly from exile to try to challenge him how stable is, is up there before a terry and so far, so good. so stable at sam as with any, all sorts or also retire and structures. it's very as, because they also in transparent this very difficult to say how um, how long will look a shoak, a survivor if for instance, fulton is out of permanent. and the story with, if it goes and then use any on one single day, revealed a lot about the russia that probably even for the russian leadership, what's quite new. um, they're also rooms that look, i think of my, the terminally ill. i don't know how much of this is again, wishful thinking, uh, but we are looking into it into a black box on the one hand on the other hand. so we're talking about the leadership and regional trends. but what is often times overlooked that since 2020

and the mass pro this mess repressions never stopped. 1500 people are we good the nicest place to go present this and this is not visited by far not, not the, the real number. if people receive draconian sentences all the pen 1720 years for joining a peaceful protest which was being ex, if in the co trustee, and supporting independence of the country that uh, basically the, the, the greatest danger. but the look i think is posing nowadays. this is a tool for them. people and carlo very briefly. a few was apparently lucas jacob likes the piece making world because he is now saying he could help to broker piece between preteen and bite, and then inviting them to come to bella. ruth. in fact, he did host talks earlier that produced the minutes accords in 2014. so should we so i'm hoping negotiating with this man. no different than optical

situation in ukraine is not the rightful negotiation. as long as rush, i believe that can we move by pursuing this war? then running the risk of flu, things. there is no way even for kind of serious peace negotiations that same a great yes. or no, no, no, no, no, no stance in negotiating with him. we can just look at the way he degrade over the past 2 years from being a means can negotiate. that would be negotiating between the ground in regard. thank you very much. talk with you for being with us. thanks to our audience. so you said the,

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