for it and how she thinks most rain. so today wise mother annoyed for nearly 4 decades. she's for peace for me, for brace of freedoms in their homeland. they run in spite of love buried through trifles. our children should not inherit science from us. the, an income, if you look into the nice dots, july 29th on t w, the, it's nearly 3 weeks since russian lesson raised from the bottom. a group pointed that tags towards most go and go branded trait is in newton is by the government. and now there's a new twin sons out the 5 days off to the episode in which more than a 1000 russians were killed off this false. you've got any pre going and was having towards recruiting in the crime that what is it on me?

my guest is russian political scientists do catherine the showman. now based inputting the president is still in his place. the system has survived so far, no personal changes has occurred at all. so how many more surprises can we expect from this? so cold rebellion, how damage the power structures inside the kremlin, is putting really in charge of being dragged along by events that he no longer controls. this drum appears from over the showman. welcome to complex on. thank you. so now we learned that 5 days after he led to a suppose it rebellion set off in a convoy from moscow and got branded a trait to you have gave me pre goshen was sitting chatting with the president in the kremlin another day. another version for the whole question marks, contradictions. what do you make of all this to? well, it's not a habit topics to comment up on for me is either

a russian citizen or a form of russian civil servants, which are wars for quite some years. because it does seem rather an extraordinary meeting in all farms, as of the world also guards its extraordinary images. as soon it's also extraordinary in their informational wrapping. the criminal was denying the fact that he knew about the gardens whereabouts about the same day as it appears when he was actually in the kremlin. and the very fact of the present meeting with the leader of arm to rebels and not just to himself alone, like, you know, the pulldown going to visit george co darling. he's the true hughes. so that's uh, equipped with uh as kremlin says tony 5 of his fellow where's that does not look very much like the leader of the nation, the receiving the planet that asks you to, in the about to as a like the hands of 2 guns coming together to discuss them usual interest,

the business is the division of assets and such like my there was always saying that every chair of russian studies over the russian army until the think tank shoots have a criminal or just on it stuff it will help to clarify matters but what do you draw from all this? at least the celtic messaging that the system is in free, full, overcome by a panic or not sure, but it's being seriously we can, but the wheels are coming off. what should we be south and may be aware of up to strong language just to present, although in a couple of months time it may be much closer to the truth. the system, as i said, is certainly not going to get any stronger. the messaging for that matter is not getting more coherent at all. it is strange that days often. well, actually, almost immediately after this meeting in the kremlin, this may, i complain started on, uh, federal, state tvs against free goals and, and a very interesting,

interesting new oriented company. and that's that there was not much talk about the trees on or about that being the army at the back or about he's being connected with the west, which is usually the favorite topic of freshman propaganda. or even if he's being the queen in spite. but it was all about the money, and he was portrayed as a person who made the most profits from the washington state. and them literally be the have that's have him which is very much at cross purposes with the coal path through all the war messaging, unification of the nation messaging. they idea. that's why she's at some sort of existential struggle with the west for its very existence based on these values. so now we have and again, not just we, we perceive it. we've am at least with the rest of what you're bought. the tv watcher is supposed to see uh, a commercial park like in fact, and now the only gar, who has made himself reach on the state budget and then both emissions for

something political, in fact, something like another code, the key or bid results key with the with due respect to, to the military as must see or so it's like like cut up costs you with tax except that this on the golf has forces the probably better train than any of the in russia at the moment. and would be seen by putting those vital to the war effort to a new crime that's. that's who strong point isn't that that's pre goshen strong point. yes, i am not capable of judging of his meal. it 3. hey, the ability of the that's not that kind of thing. i understand very much about bob's hugh. so the leave has an army of his own, which is loyal to him and will to anyone else and for very valid reasons before is their very existence is illegal. in the eyes of the russian more, there was no lu, about private military companies. but there are a couple of criminal called articles exactly, describing what they're doing. and these involves quite heavy punishments from town

to 15 years of federal service. so again, for the russian law, for the russian, steve machine, these people are criminals, even the, the presidents received them in the criminal and based you have no legal folding. so of a low eltic can be only to the chief that pays them and protects them from the law . and this chief was strong enough to manage to get a meeting with the president in order to uh well bargain. evidently with him also about the fate of his followers. are you not surprised, but precaution is still alive? i am surprised at the whole thing. but once you've started doing crazy stuff like beginning a while with your neighbor, all sorts of crazy consequences in march. so i wish we started being surprised on the 24th of february and haven't finished yet. tatiana spun over from the county here, russia you raises center, says russian leads are in the state of silent shock. they're asking themselves,

how was it possible to get out of such a munich mute to me? i'm punished. do you have an answer to that? well, i don't do a psychological analysis at long distance bots again, being something old, federal pride, myself at heart, i can relate to the state of things. we don't know really much about the rush on the lights, it's. it's a closed community. they don't alter weatherly communicate, but certainly the things which are happening are wherever, all to out of the ordinary. but again, we are dealing with so many minutes. and so many propaganda concepts have made illusions that i am wondering whether the illusion of this idea of this tone, i'm vindictive, rather than who does never uh, forgive 3 threes then who is ever ready to adventure, humiliation. what i was kind of through during peaceful times when oil prices were

high and relations with outside world were good. whether it's to hold true. during this time when it seems that he's only goal is political survival. we think that this is the go of them. everything else becomes rational and explainable. you're talking about how are you talking about a new person who's political opponents don't for some reason, jump out of the upstairs windows with quite the frequency with which they have in recent to use. uh, we'll have to wait and see. but so far, well, yes, time people have jumped out of windows. have a people have emigrated and believed rather peacefully abroad. all the people have been killed or otherwise molest at the world. so i don't know if exactly see any human policy here either. but of course, a very open face wrapped like them are you to me is something different from even attempting to buy your own problem, answer reflection, which is what,

how the costs you was actual like use though, in political terms. uh, this is something you will have a sweats, received threats from the military side. we're in the punishable by death. when we could remember the cases of the general limits to could have been perceived as something of arrival. there was a less known case of general russell, him who was found dead in she's bad and his wife used the mother. so military was always perceived by extremely soviet political leadership as potentially dangerous and not to be of trust. but this is a 3rd edition stay coming from the end of the 2nd world war. when styling was afraid of the popularity of marshal's recalls and of extreme political importance of the army, that just one of the historic victory seems to them. it has been a tradition that secret service is optical actors, but the army and the navy on not even in the war, even during the war. we have not seen any change in this direction. pre gordon and

his boys do not to represent the military. exactly, but they certainly are present the military force and you see that while a peaceful, political opposition is being systematically crushed. if you have a town and a couple of gums them, you can gather yourself up and i'm invited to the kremlin. and so you get talked with him quite respectful, my though, i'm not some of that. that's the, that's a risky precedent to set that the list and the exactly the point. yes. but once you'll find yourself as a spade, as a leader, you the troubled waters of the wards, if you can neither whim, multiple time ma'am, to, you'll get all sorts of queered guests and your cabinets when, when all the spin and exaggeration, the strip to way what do you think was really behind pre goshen, so cold march for just it was, it was an opportunistic to believe that despite his assurances, he had an intention that back to me ousting proved him when we

story pulls the pressure. malia away from this, we see a very typical event that happens in africa about every 6 months in africa, but not in russia that we should, we think ourselves so different because we're the territories bigger because the climate is different. well, because we have more citizens universities, but sadly, this seems to be no obstacle to well political degradation, to put it in simple terms. so this things happened in the country that kind of hold their legal violence together. so they emerges, ave alternative forces, which them demand something from the government. usually the beginning of such a revolt, which can or cannot terminate in a change of power, is destroy this faction with payment with liberal shape, with working conditions,

something to all the. so it's a kind of labor conflict, again, only with tax. so you'll start frightening your government wave yourself and your support us even the health is getting better working and living conditions or just getting more money. what do you have your grievances least some to so political science tells us that despite the very armed and violent appearance of such marches, the leaders, i actually anxious to avoid bloodshed whenever possible. because there go is bargaining knots extra and was even change. although e for resume is we can up at that point as people who organize them usually come of directly accessed on the stand. how we do to really is resume change might occur. your company, which one with one of the most extraordinary aspects of the saga is that's pretty goshen, was able to trash pollutants and todd justification for invading ukraine calling.

it's a lie. how damaging, what are those comments? he hasn't been throwing them, and now he has not ads in his recent, most recent of use public appeal. we also sold those voice voice mails. he's been sending to the nation through a telegram that happened before them you to meet. he went from attacking the minister, have to cancel the ship to actually attacking well, not the prison by name, but him as the had of the system. the justification for the march was seeking for justice protesting against corruption and the need to change this whole system which is not affected. the system is the president or the president exemplifies and symbolizes the system. so you cannot say that it was just an appeal for the presidents arbitrage him. his quarter old way of the minister of defense and the head of generals had for those he, when pray of them that he has. it was extraordinary to hear him saying that made it

was not actually planning to attack russia, that your queen was not playing tooth ext, uh, planning to attack russia. that it was all it to spammed by the army leadership for the president in order to get more metals and little bunch of money. this message has been heard by those that get the information from telegram. this is a big girl, wink chunk of russian population. it has not been heard at all, but that by those whose main source of information is tv we, we talked a little bit about how the effects of all this on the, on the system. can you, to any extent, quantity 5, the damage that the system has sustained with this episode? and what uh, the signs would you be looking for if the system where to unravel for how might that manifest itself? the 1st things 1st, the president is still in his place. the system has survived so far,

no personal changes has occurred at all. even a, i don't know the kremlin broadway on dispute or in the ministry of defense or for that's uh for the metro of that in wagner. so it looks like for the moment we have this amazing, really room where everyone got their own pretty good and seems to be losing hughes media. and prior or at least putting it on hold. because the information is really very modeled, we cannot be sure for the wrong from here what, what would we ever see? what? so again, we have a, i, me z, i need to state is code just for the moment. what do we will be of the signs that on the rambling goes further? well, i would expect um, in this case, the bad example of precaution to be followed by somebody else. you may start low key with, for example, video tape, the dresses of some military personnel to the president out or to the minister of

defense. again, the listing some grievances and asking to billy some to who are we may perceive we may witness leave defections on the high level them previously. for example, somebody from the government or formerly from the government may disappear and them appear on the other side of the board. are ready maybe to talk about something to make some public declarations or to make them on public communications with their author, which is office that your pm junior or united states. or we may see somebody leaks on the level of this leaked phone conversation between mister x from you sir, is that um saying something uh, by the way, speaking about the lakes which are assign of the system not being able to do what is most prides itself on doing reserve, the secrecy, the information about the meeting of all for the present with the wagner people was leaked by, was published by the french newspaper only addressing them. and after the kremlin,

have to again, it's not clear for me why they could have kept denying it. it's no problem for them to do right and your thing, but they for some reason, pulled themselves blige to ex. truly confirmed at the meeting to please it means that somebody over there in a very close circle now in the kremlin, is talking to, well, somebody who is down talking to the mainstream, your press, this is assign. you characterize the russian state recently as a system, mostly based on limitation, make believe hypocrisy lip service isn't about pretty much the way it was in soviet times. so could this system collapse the way the soviet union did? this is totally up to you and i've had a couple of for the fast like for here and probably do all legit. absolutely close boulders and sounds to realize the quality of these made it at once durable and

brutal. it happens with such a metro systems our current system in joyce m. morales market. the cool i me and more or less functional system of civic brokerage see, which actually holds the complete together. and the advantage of open borders, which allows to get rid of the stamped without now direct and widespread violence. so it is not us for the system, but it has quite a lot of similarities with the late version of soviets. originally, when it was almost all 3 pounds, no believe at in either what would you any longer, not much violence exercised by the state of absolutely no infused e as on the part of the people about and your thing. and the last but not least, dissatisfaction of their leads with the way they leave out. the spreading idea of f change may be to the advantage. dissatisfaction with the lead to, according to some reports, a number of security personnel called in sick on the 24th of june. not wanting to

show which side they were on in case things got out of control. another report said these were, must go, police officers hedging that pets just as they had in 1991 during the attempted coup against me solve gorbachev. was that a lot of that happening on june the 24th. and there's, there's a police state but can't rely on it's police any longer as well. again, to an extent it can, as you see, there were no open defections, no one united himself or uh no, no our body united itself with them you 10 years, but they say how old they started. oh yes, yes they, they stay there. how, that's the very, very, a rush, something to do, and as a political side is, i'm kind of glad that we have this good example to demonstrate what is author theory and popularity. you remember all the talk about the support for the president. how the country is united behind him. so even compared to all the,

all the courts like ever the gum, the russian prism cannot rely on, well, any one, except perhaps the 1st. so people, the federal guardsman, a service, they are all seem to be still around him. who consulted, rely on who can booted rely on after these missteps. visit the white house that um, there is a body guard service. the facilities are evidently, he thinks he can rely on their own lives there and they'll look up because he's arming them, they are to receive and as a public promise on it, they have to receive heavy armament. which means that this argument will be taken from the front line. well, we will not go to the front line because the probably the realization that we actually need forces in moscow not somewhere out today. and you claim, because we need to defend ourselves or wherever them think about getting or when they boards learn. how far might this rebellion if that's what it was impact

russia's approach to the board and ukraine? that's a good question. east bed. yeah, that i have just tried to describe, we'll take roots in the minds of decision makers. it may lead to there. let's build it carefully to the great. so we have done this to at least try to freeze the conflict, or even to concede something, for the sake of being able to stop those costs. phillips is which operating the very system at risk the rest an expression for this is that is really we'd lose the war. we should not think about game. we have trouble enough keeping always self alive. that's a very good frame of mind for the beginning of any sort of peace folks. how far do you think putting his go back? is objectives in ukraine, or is he still dreaming of taking care of all taken care of at or say it's about installing a pro russian government in ukraine. that's why they were so much talk about it's

not being an occupational campaign. if there is a pro russian government them key, if there is absolutely no need for russia to take any any be though if you create them territory. because all the poignancy or through will be pro russian. that's their idea. i cannot say wherever it is still alive in the heads of any one or or not. but the very fact of an exciting territory was due to the realization of the fact that no pro russian government, them key of is forthcoming any time soon. and you don't see anybody still in the kremlin dreaming of that. i mean, they haven't been characterized by the a detailed knowledge or accurate knowledge of the situation in ukraine habit. i'm the mother of, i'll be very good. we don't up though. we don't have no, and of course i, we don't know whether anyone is dreaming about and you think i have the sounds that

the most optimistic scenario, which is now in the hands of russian decision makers, is this. we wait out to you premium concert or offensive pets or is out without tangible results. then we wait out, feel presidential elections in the states because we have all the time in the world . but the democracy is always chained to the electoral cycle. and then the receiver will probably step forward and save mother russia. that's the idea again to the best of my estimation i'm, i will not be defending it as a very realistic scenario, but i do suspect each of the favorites one. that's really what some of them are counting on the trump victory in the us next in the presidential elections. once you've started dreaming dream big will moscow being hoffman the to ukraine? watson's offered the time table for joining nato at the villages summit. cat, cat,

kenneth kenneth, really estimate that's, that's, these are military matters outside of the field with my expect this. all right, that's what i now is that they're watching this very closely and by no, it's not from some sort of inside their sources bought from their opened declarations that talking very much about it. so we can safely say that the eyes of moscow are now in vilnius, by the way, good time to do something in russia. maybe when the ios, our armies turned elsewhere, how long has proved to him got to put the right to re establish, use to, to re establish control. and let's try to imagine this best case scenario. suppose it all comes to come to the terms of achieves nothing. i'm veiling assignments and with some sort of aptitude declaration, donald trump williams, the presidential elections in 2024. and um, president's puts him a wins um presidential elections impressions for problem 24 and no protests occur

after the elections because the danger of all sorts of during the elections is not losing them. but um, encountering uh, public dissatisfaction cost to the results of being published like in bell or as in 2020. suppose all this happens. the conflict is frozen on the korea model, which is now such a favored with russian public speakers. and them, the regime has the time to readjust it's logistical chains to, for their revamp. it's relations with both china and india to isolate itself informational, leap from the global internet. and then well yes, it comes to vice for such time as the president has physically as, as a person. and them to try to re arrange matters once he is no longer among the group of leads, more or less of the same people who are now the holders of the russian federation

of the shareholders of this uh, great and partially successful, commercial and surprise. so this is the best case scenario. it is not an impossible one. you're covered in the showman. very good to talk to. thanks very much indeed for your time. thank you. thank you. the or the

stopping climate change? that's what they're aiming for. we want to achieve re thinking and society assume about commitment and hope about visions and the people behind

the learning catastrophe. climate change the 15 minutes on d w. rainbow branding, it's definitely trending. but not all companies are serious about their support areas. some companies can face harsh criticism brands today, the brace friction, they've gone up against the criticism, but this stood for something in the end of the one great deal of brand loyalty from the next generation aid in germany, 90 minutes on w. the . these places you of course, stepped into an old adventure. it's the treasure map for modern globetrotters.

discover some of us record breaking site on google back youtube and now also in book form. imagine so many portions of lots of turn out in the world climate change . the storage space is much less the way from just one week. how much was going to really get we still have time to act. i'm going to like this. the

the business dw news live from building joy biden's x rays that allies wind waiver in supposing ukraine's fight against russia. i mean that our committee will not stand for liberty and freedom today, tomorrow i for as long as it takes high stakes next.