in via the black sea to spice rushman, a tax on the port of odessa and despite the kremlin withdrawing security guarantees to ship of course cobra rub comes with the program. strong consumption means developing asia is on track to grow fast on the sea. or even though global demand is weak, that is the latest assessment from the asian development back. the manila based lender has updated the ticket on the outlook for 46 countries of the region from april and it's keeping it's 2023 growth forecast. a 4.8 percent. it has revise its forecast for next year down to 4.7 percent because of risk such as russia's war on ukraine. and the b says inflation is heading back towards pre covered levels. the bank has cut it's inflation forecast to 3.6 percent this year. let's take a closer look at the report with the agent development banks, chief economist,

albert park, albert, welcome back to the w. so a be has caught his inflation forecast. the 3.6 percent this year. what does that mean for the people living in the 46 economies you're keeping an eye on as well relative to earlier this year. we're now forecasting energy prices to come down a bit. so our forecast is for oil prices to be 80 dollars this year, 84 dollars next year, which is lower than before. and so with lower energy prices also following food prices, we think it will provide lower inflation than we had previously predicted. and levels that are starting to get back to pre pandemic level. so unlike many other parts of the world, inflation is much more modest. here, china in particular, is reaching very low levels, has been very steady at us as showing very low levels of inflation. and there's even the risk of deflation there. and china, some are saying there will be more monetary tightening though in the u. nighted

states, i'll be moderate tightening, and the european central bank wants to keep raising interest rates as well. what will be the knock on effects for developing asia as well? obviously, higher interest rates in the us or europe put financial pressure on the region. so it leads to money kind of worth of funds flowing away from asia and back to the west. it creates pressure for depreciation of currencies. so because there's so much uncertainty about how much tightening is really needed in the us and in europe, i think we'll just have to take a weight and see we're certainly priced in some continued increases. but if the core inflation remains stubbornly high in the us in europe, and the fed and, and the european central bank continue to be aggressive in raising hikes more than expected. then that will certainly create financial pressures in the region is or

which will not be good for growth because eventually it may lead central banks. and the reason to want to raise their interest rates and response, which will kind of cut off investment in growth right now. we already see monetary policy and asian economies, moderating much fewer rate hikes, even a couple of countries starting to kind of interest rates to continue and support the recovery from the pandemic. now you're expected china to reach its growth target of 5 percent. uh, ged bureaus to see what makes you so optimistic a given the latest rather lukewarm economic data coming from badging a well actually in our april forecast we said 5 percent in our update. that was least today we're sticking to 5 percent fired present is actually lower than most other organization does. we're forecasting 3 months ago and still even today. so i wouldn't say we're overly bull. this is just that. um, you know, there are reasons to expect,

continue to recovery from the pen to make it amazing. many asian countries, you know, after countries moved away from locked down 6 cetera, we saw a pretty steady increase in demand and recovery. and that is still supporting growth in many countries in the region. it's really, it's been domestic demand story, robust demand, as well as robust investment that's driving the 4 point a forecast we have for the reason it's china, the recovery is very sluggish. we see that the day the numbers don't look great, they're still high unemployment. import demand from china has been very disappointing. which would be of course, a boon to other countries in the region. if it meant that the china would be a better export market. that's still not really developing the property sector and china is also having some challenges. and so for all those reasons, the recovery is sluggish, but we still are optimistic that you know the government will provide some modest supports. and then eventually we're hoping the chinese consumers and investors in

that, in terms of the businesses, we'll start to re getting confidence and was start to see some of the recovery momentum of the park chief economist at the asian development bank over thank the same with the chinese property sector, financial markets are still trying to digest that real estate developer ever grad disclosed a net loss of over 113000000000 dollars 420212022 nearly $340000000000.00 in liabilities. staggering losses. highlight however, grams massive debts remaining serious concern for the financial health of the chinese property sector and the world's 2nd largest economy. overall, the real estate sector makes up about a quarter of the chinese economies. growth and ever ground is one of china's largest builders of apartments. for more let's cross over to the w correspondent, the thoughts on hand and ty paid so loss of $113000000000.00 over 2 years.

how syria is the situation forever grand. the company that the chinese government has tried so hard to keep alive for it is very serious. evergreen's. net loss is around the number of global average of g d p. and they set a record for the highest last ever recorded by hong kong listed company, evergreen's, cash and equivalent assets almost amounts to nothing in the face of such a huge hole. and everyone has to be spending too fast in reason, years. so it's too big to fall. if ever grant goes on bankrupt, it will cost a domino effect, which will affect the credibility in financing at all the whole real estate developers and paralyzed the real estate market. like germany's 50 percent home ownership rate, china is home ownership rate is 87 percent. when the real estate market calls private investment will definitely follow. so it will have

a huge impact on chinese economy. china's property sector is incredibly important to do the country's economy. what do evergreen's problems tell us about the state of the sector overall? as well before corvette, the real estate market was an important driver all about china's economy, big success. so in the past 2 years, the officials to launch a series of policies to guarantee the delivery delivery of buildings hoping to reduce the impact on the housing market. multiple damage has now emerged, not just the construction industry and services related to home viewed in itself. as i mentioned, the home owners also come back on spending for fear of losing the most valuable asset, which in turn impact private consumption. more to that many enterprises in china use real estate as collateral for their loans. overall, the shadow of the real estate market is likely to continue to loom over china economy for not just an hour to the end of this year. but for a long, long time,

no, not staying with the bigger picture here. so ever grands struggle prompting fears about possible shockwave. so the global financial system, the chinese central banks as well as problems can be controlled. and it's unlikely that they spill over. how reliable is that sort of an estimate? of course, we can totally expect that coming from the chinese central bank. but the impact on the global financial market and economy is unpredictable because everyone's longer involved in many international financial institutions, such as s, s, b, c, and credit suisse, etc. so it's bankruptcy may trick of financial risk and crisis that china can not control. so every brand is now look into the constructor, it's offshore debt and provide more help to its creditors. if it works, it could allow everyone to act quickly to avoid a potential crisis due to actual lawsuits over default. and we can observe that if

they think will increase, do more, less measures, like cutting interest rates, any increase in support to local governments. other than that, we'll have to wait and see you w correspondence, old song hand and tie paid. so thank you. are you currently and presidents are loading theres lensky says, reason russian attacks on the port of a desk deliberately targeted infrastructure necessary to export grain on monday, the kremlin halters in agreement to ship. your brain in grain across the black sea, germany says will support your crane and finding other export roads is key is wants to uphold the shipments as the source of revenue. the sam some the last ship that will bring agricultural goods out of ukraine into the rest of the world. moscow has forbidden further exports and says the safety of cargo ships will no longer be guaranteed. it issued a warning against shipping exports without russian permission. he said to the

combat zones outright, nearby, there are certain risk there. you know, maybe the blockage is especially bad for people in east africa. afghanistan or young men who rely on these goods. the u. n. world food program warns less grain coming from ukraine could cause a shortage. increasing price is world wide ones because it, though, for us it just means extremely difficult. decisions that i had been, who did give haul for actions to that was all, can you cut out all together for i? the answer should be no ones. and these are really heartbreaking decisions that my colleagues then have to make on the ground. samsung's last load is 15000 tons of rapes, he'd headed for the netherlands. not one of ukraine's main buyers is taught purchases are china, followed by spain and turkey. these 3 countries alone, import half of ukraine's grain ukrainian presidents lensky now wants to explored more without russian approval. from the you ones perspective, it's wishful thinking. it was this 75. you were,

you shipping companies are willing to take such a risk line, which the insurance company is insure merchant ships passing through a boss on as a samsung left the black sea, the port city of odessa faced russian attacks during the night. under the reminder of a tough story for you at this hour, the asian development bank says strong consumption means developing agent is on track to grow faster this year. even though global demand is weak databases, inflation is heading back towards pre co that's our show for now. for more check out our website at www dot. com slash business. and of course, the dw used youtube channel. chris kolber on the link from me and the entire team. thanks for watching. every successful the

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in our series guardians of curious, watching on youtube dw documentary, the you're watching the w news live from berlin. south africa says vladimir putin a won't attends next month break summit in person. south africa would have been obligated to arrest the russian president under international law. also coming up on the show, ukraine describes a seconds night of russian missile strikes on odessa as hellish. the port city.