in via the black sea to spice russian attacks on the port of a desk signs, despite the kremlin withdrawing security guarantees to shift chris kolber rub comes with the program. strong consumption means developing asia is on track to grow fast on the see. or even though global demand is week, that is the latest assessment from the asian development back. the manila based lender has updated the ticket on the outlook for 46 countries of the region from april and it's keeping it's 2023 growth forecast. a 4.8 percent. it has revise its forecast for next year down to 4.7 percent because of risk such as rushes war on ukraine. and the b says inflation is heading back towards pre covered levels. the bank has cut it's inflation forecast to 3.6 percent this year. let's take a closer look at the report with the agent development banks, chief economist,

albert park, albert, welcome back to the w. so a be, has caught his inflation forecast to 3.6 percent this year. what does that mean for the people living in the 46 economies you're keeping an eye on as well, relative to earlier this year. we're now forecasting energy prices to come down a bit. so our forecast is for oil prices to be 80 dollars this year, 84 dollars next year, which is lower than before. and so with lower energy prices also following food prices, we think it will provide a lower inflation than we had previously predicted. and levels that are starting to get back to pre pandemic level. so unlike many other parts of the world, inflation is much more modest. here, china in particular, is reaching very low levels, has been very steady at us as showing very low levels of inflation. and there's even the risk of deflation there. and china, some are saying there will be more monetary tightening though in the nighted states,

i'll be moderate tightening, and the european central bank wants to keep raising interest rates as well. what will be the knock on effects for developing asia as well? obviously higher interest rates in the us or europe put financial pressure on the region. so it leads to money kind of worth of funds flowing away from asia and back to the west. it creates pressure for depreciation of currencies . so because there's so much uncertainty about how much tightening is really needed in the us and in europe, i think we'll just have to take a weight and see we're certainly priced in some continued increases. but if the core inflation remain stubbornly high in the us in europe, and the fed and, and the european central bank continue to be aggressive in raising hikes more than expected. then that will certainly create financial pressures in the region in asia,

which will not be good for growth because eventually it may lead central banks. and the reason to want to raise their interest rates in response, which will kind of cut off investment in grow right now, we already see monetary policy and asian economies, moderating much fewer rate hikes, even a couple of countries starting to cut interest rates to continue and support the recovery from the pandemic. now you're expected china to reach its growth target of 5 percent. uh, ged, because this year what makes you so optimistic given the latest rather live warm economic data coming from badging a well actually in our april forecast we said 5 percent in our update. that was least today we're sticking to 5 percent fired present is actually lower than most other organization does. we're forecasting 3 months ago and still even today. so i wouldn't say we're overly bull. this is just that. um, you know, there are reasons to expect,

continue to recovery from the pen to make it amazing. many asian countries, you know, after countries moved away from locked down 6 cetera, we saw a pretty steady increase in demand and recovery. and that is still supporting growth in many countries in the region. it's really, it's been domestic demand story, robust demand, as well as robust investment that's driving the 4 point a forecast we have for the reason it's china, the recovery is very sluggish. we see that the day the numbers don't look great, they're still high unemployment. import demand from china has been very disappointing. which would be of course, a boon to other countries in the region. if it meant that the china would be a better export market. that's still not really developing the property sector and china is also having some challenges. and so for all those reasons, the recovery is sluggish, but we still are optimistic that you know the government will provide some modest supports. and then eventually we're hoping the chinese consumers and investors in

that, in terms of the businesses, we'll start to re getting confidence in was part to see some of the recovery momentum of the park chief economist at the asian development bank over thank the same with the chinese property sector, financial markets are still trying to digest that real estate developer. ever grad disclose the net loss of over $150000000000.00 420212022 nearly $340000000000.00 in liabilities. staggering losses. highlight however, grams masses, debts remaining serious concern for the financial health of the chinese property sector and the world's 2nd largest economy. overall, the real estate sector and makes up about a quarter of the chinese economies growth and ever ground is one of china's largest builders of apartments. for more, let's cross over to the w correspondent, the thoughts on hand and ty paid. so loss of $113000000000.00 over 2 years.

how syria is the situation forever grand. the company that the chinese government has tried so hard to keep alive what it is very serious. evergreen's. net loss is around the number of global average of g d p. and they set a record for the highest last ever recorded by hong kong listed company, evergreen's, cash and equivalent assets almost amounts to nothing in the face of such a huge hole. and everyone has to be spending too fast in recent years, so it's too big to fall. if advert, grant goes on bankrupt, it will cost a domino effect, which will affect the credibility in financing at all the whole real estate developers and paralyzed the real estate market. like germany's 50 percent home ownership rate, china has home ownership rate is 87 percent. when the real estate market calls private investment will definitely follow. so it will have

a huge impact on chinese economy. a ton of property sector is incredibly important to the country's economy. what do evergreen's problems tell us about the state of the sector overall? as well before corvette, the real estate market was an important driver of china's economy, big success. so in the past 2 years, the officials to launch a series of policies to guarantee the delivery delivery of buildings hoping to reduce the impact on the housing market. but multiple damage has now emerged, not just the construction industry and services related to home viewed in itself. as i mentioned, home owners also come back on spending for fear of losing the most valuable asset, which in turn impact private consumption. more to that many enterprises in china use real estate as collateral for their loans. overall, the shadow of the real estate market is likely to continue to loom over china economy for not just an hour to the end of this year. but for a long, long time,

no, not staying with the bigger picture here. so evergreen's struggle problem, the fears about possible shock waves for the global financial system. the chinese central bank says, well as problems can be controlled, and it's unlikely that they spill over. how reliable is that sort of an estimate? of course, we can totally expect that comment from the chinese central bank, but the impact on the global financial market and economy is unpredictable because everyone's longer involved in any international financial institutions, such as s s, b, c. and credit suisse, etc. so it's bankruptcy may trick of financial risk and crisis that china can not control. so every brand is now look into the constructor. it's offshore debt and provide more help to its creditors. if it works, it could allow everyone to act quickly to avoid a potential crisis due to actual lawsuits over default. and we can observe that if

they think will increase, do more less measures, like cutting interest rates, any increase in support to local governments. other than that, but in for a lot of years, lensky says reese and russian attacks on the port of a desk, deliberately targeted infrastructure necessary to explored grain. on monday, the kremlin halters in agreement to ship ukrainian grain across the black sea. germany says it will support ukraine and finding other export roads. this kid wants to uphold the shipments as a source of revenue, of the samsung, the last ship that will bring agricultural goods out of ukraine into the rest of the world. moscow has forbidden further exports and says the safety of cargo ships will no longer be guaranteed. it issued a warning against shipping exports without russian permission to combat zones outright. nearby, there are certain risk there. you know, maybe the blockage is especially bad for people in east africa. afghanistan,

or young man who rely on these goods. the u. n. world food program warns less grain coming from ukraine could cause a shortage increasing prices worldwide winds because it does for us. it just means extremely difficult decisions on our happened. who do you get involved? russians to that was all, can you cut out all together for it? i, the answer should be no ones. and these are really heartbreaking decisions that my colleagues then have to make on the ground. samsung last load is 15000 tons of rapes eat, headed for the netherlands, not one of ukraine's main buyers. it's top purchases are china, followed by spain and turkey. these 3 countries alone, import half of ukraine's grain ukrainian presidents lensky now wants to explored more without russian approval. from the one's perspective, it's wishful thinking. it was $75.00. you were, you shipping companies are willing to take such a risk wind, which the insurance company is insure merchant ships passing through. it was on as

a samsung left, the black sea, the port city of odessa face russian attacks during the night. under the reminder of our top story for you at this hour, the asian development bank says strong consumption means developing agent is on track to grow faster this year. the global demand is weak database as inflation is heading back towards pre co laptop. that's our show for now. for more check out our website at www dot. com slash business under 4 c p. w, use youtube channel. of course, cobra and roland from me and the entire team. thanks for watching. every successful the

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the, you're watching, the, the, the news live from berlin. russia carries out a 2nd straight night of air strikes on odessa. the ukrainian fort city has been under increased attack since most, colquitt of greenville meant to prevent a global food crisis. also coming up on the show south africa says why did we