just to be hugley, the sample size and the team. 60 minutes on what secrets? why behind being discovered new adventures in 360 degrees. and explore fascinating world heritage sites. p w world heritage 360. kept now a carefully choreographed russian victory day celebration was in that showing military might on red square of this week. but as proved and presided over the parade, she had little to show for the costly winter offensive. and ukraine have russians grown tired of the fighting. my guest on complex zone is nina cruz stove up professor of international affairs at the new school in new york and the great grand daughter of style in successor nikita khrushchev. she has spent months of the

war in moscow as russia prepares to face a ukrainian counter offensive. how shaky is prudence position? gustavo, welcome to conflicts out. thank you for inviting me. when you spoke on this program last year, you said that exposing the shortcomings of the russian army has caused a lot of prestige damage. how much worse is it now for russia and prudent himself especially on victor today? well, i think the question of prestige is no longer that, that relevant for pretend the way rusher decided to continue approaching decided to continues that we're not paying attention to things like that. but it keeps saying that the special military operation is going to be completed is going to cheat what's goals and it's no matter how long it will take. and essentially at this point, it seems no matter what kind of price it's going to take. so in some way, on victory day they had to parade it was slush, somewhat subdued. it wasn't grand,

it was only 15 minutes with him spoke for about 10. but essentially it is a very matter of fact approach. now we are at war while she's at more and you take her to leave it, but basically russia is going to be at war. and those who are not agree with this kind of approach are going to be eliminated. but we've heard that numerous victory day parades they've been scaled back. they've been canceled. red square was close to the public since the end of april and a sign of security fears. is it a sign of weakness for prudent and, and what do you think russians are making of it? well, it is, i mean a sign of weakness basically north just that, but also sign of weakness that every or almost not all, but almost every conceivable freedom of freedom of, uh, having rights, freedom of expression, freedom of free speech and so on and so forth. had been completely, almost completely scaled back, curtailed, forbids. and so that's

a weakness because weak states are very weakly buddies and rush about has very, very weak liberties. so yes, it is a sign of weakness from the west in perspective. but from the washing perspective, it is a sight of strength is that the world is against this. it's a hybrid war. uh, nato is getting closer and closer to our borders. we were right to begin the, the operation as the crumbling says, and therefore, no matter how russia or fortune or criminal looks uh from the point of view of the west, they are going to push their own right away. and then why should it is? i mean that i spoke about it, it hasn't changed, it was a great sense of despair last year, great sense of disbelief for, for many, many months. and now the despair and disbelief actually turned into a complete just sort of surrender to the fate and also a lot of anger,

a lot of anger against the kremlin, but also a lot of angry against everybody who, who pushes russia to that break as many russian c, and against that backdrop of russia has, without providing any evidence. it has accused ukraine of attempting to assassinate putting in a drone attack on the kremlin. there's a lot of speculation around this incident. so i'm saying it might have been staged as an attempt to gain sympathy at home or potentially a false flag that might lead to something else. what do you think it was? what do you think the kremlin strategy might be? well, i'm, when you, when we started this sentence with, without any evidence, you know, there's, it's a war. there's a lot of things that both sides of all sides involved in it, claim that has no evidence. and yet they claim. and so sides decide wherever which side your all and decide who you're going to be. but they've been a lot of conversation about a key of actually attacking moscow,

attacking crumbling those leaks, leak documents, pentagon documents, and then we don't know exactly how true they are, but they've been suggestions there and even some evidence. apparently that key of a did have or have had such a b as we heard it from the, from the key of authorities that we know just recently would go to a tek rations on every territory. i'm, unless ukraine, uh, ukraine um wins. so it's north without uh, you know, it's not an entire speculation to save. may have been an act of a kid, the ukranian army, it could be a full slab, but the thing is, the full slab should be then i mean, a lot of places cancelled. but the red square parade we made, that's the main square. so put him really measures this. okay to, to spend because it around the spot in victory bay parades. anybody? anybody can speech today to talk about brothers and sisters. very much like styling

did during, during world war 2. so it is, i think we, we really don't have enough information to say who did that. it could be ukrainians . it could be a full swag that could be sympathy. but best certainly for the russians, the worse they attacks and russia is actually, it is better for the crumbling because it allows them to push that propaganda. the war is a war and we did what we did in 1945. so it's no longer in defense of war, it's actually defense. the war and more fighting has, of course, blooming, russia and ukraine, both preparing for the next phase of the war as a ukrainian counter offensive looms on pulling doesn't have in many victories. as you've highlighted, ukraine's counter offensive meantime, will be backed by thousands of new western donated armored vehicles and freshly trained troops. how high are the stakes for him right now? personally as well, the stakes are high because it is, i mean, as you begin to war, same thing, it's going to be fast and clear and all good. it didn't happen this way. so they,

the stakes are high because now he's only way say to stay in power to continue to say that i am the only ones who can protect you from uh, west and aggression. is me. so for the, actually, the war is something that is somewhat cherished politically because he needs it. he needs it unless he, when he actually needs the war to continue with the loss is with the even with losses because some they would be some gain, some losses of ukrainians itself. said that it would be really difficult. and certainly, the western advisor said, would be difficult for ukraine to take, to take back all the territory. so to some degree from fulton to long, they've continues as long as you can northwind the battery. it is for his political standing unless it goes so badly and so sideways then the that the leads around him and the people in russia actually say, well,

maybe we should reconsider. but i would not see that happen quite quickly or any time very soon. there have also been reports of strikes in russian held territories areas around the border with ukraine and oil depot and crimea to trains the railed . if it doesn't look good for the military leadership, you, you also had wagner. chief, you gave me per goes and recently calling for more ammunition for his fighters and bach mood. even threatened at one point to pull his his fighters out. is the military leadership also in trouble? well, yes and no. i mean, they're in trouble because they are not winning. but those strikes by the way that you suggested actually confirm for the at least for the propaganda, the business, the criminal strikes, but also by the ukrainian side. and they are, for it actually, once again, strengthens the strength, is its, its argument, is that look this striking against us 3 way with all this western shiny weapons. so

how can you even argue that or we should really retreat and change and change it would be he didn't know the middle to be it's not doing well, but he goes in with his kind of, it seems like it was a good play on his part he's going to embarrass everybody and because she's so needed. so suddenly it's going to change everything in his favor. items that i did of the kitchen site or the kitchen president who's sort of rogue mattie, along with the golden 1st said what we're going to take over. but then she went a guess free, gordon too, and said well you should have finished your job record and said he's going to withdraw on the 10th of may. he's north withdrawing on the 10th of may. so once again, i mean yes, there's absolutely sign of coughing me and disconnect within the leads within the army. it still doesn't mean that rashid's losing to the point of having completely lost the war. it's just that discount population. that in fact, may allow the war to go for longer and longer, longer,

but let's get back to the public and, and what their opinion is and, and whether or not that might be changing because in russia, some pro war bloggers there, they're actually warning now that russia's front line could collapse in the face of the ukranian counter offensive. there seems to be growing anxiety over the capabilities of forces combined that with us estimates that some $20000.00 russians have died so far, and that's just in a inbox. moved alone, according to those estimates. what is the mood right now in, in russia? is it turning? you know, not really. i mean, i know it's just such a case of wishful thinking because it was already in fact the blog is the military beloved is as you may remember about 6 months ago, it was kind of the same anger and saying, well, we need to push, we need to do more than it subsided, now it's rising up again. okay. but um, you know, we've, we've also parallel to that we've, we've seen rush of releasing a new form policy concept at the end of march,

a radical departure from the previous foreign policy concept. for the 1st time since the cold war, the kremlin has formerly made clear that it sees washington as its main adversary, which you alluded to there. but it is also had the sweeping goal that it's announced that it has a ration power. could the spring more destruction and complex, that's what the international crisis group is saying. what do you expect or reduced fictional, psychotic national goals? i mean, it's kind of sup, 13th century, suddenly in the 21st, which has been that whole war and the whole puts an idea. so all together is sort of the pun, slattich state, because they talk about the unique civilization. which in fact, even in the cold war would be in itself because in the cold war, especially after style. and so that's the idea was that they, that the socialist system is actually part of the global system. now russia efficiently says, we are unique saying that we are going to basically very start in that it's and put

in is when one separately, separately taking country. i don't see, i mean i, i don't imagine russia go any further than that. it does ukraine and even in today's speech for just said we are defending that done. but so, i mean, he didn't even say way of defending the whole ukraine. he said, you know, the planning people are with defending the database so they keep kind of keep even over the sweeping goals of having rushes, a separate civilization. their geographical claims are. i, i don't want to say more. that's because they are not, but they are not sweeping the, what the thing they're concerned about is the russian world. what they say road, excuse me, a bit concerned about the russian, the russian world. not necessarily in geographical terms, but in kind of this is essential not exist central, sorry, in the, in intellectual terms, in uh, psychological terms and cultural terms and so on. so no, i wouldn't see the army going further. however,

i also don't see the army retreating in a peaceful solution. the army maybe retreating, being, being forced to force back, but not because they decide to withdraw can neighboring states. so really feel safe because um, according to linked to us documents recently um the wagner group was apparently involved in an alleged kremlin lead effort to foment civil unrest in moldova, in the hopes of the stabilizing that pro western government. how concerned should countries like mold over be and how much damage is put and still capable of as well? i mean, the country is like my dog, but should be concerned because the country's like mold over, you know, they have romanian language now is the official language. so the more drastic, the countries are against fulton's, russia, the more the more uh, damage. uh, well, i don't know they have military damage, but then they're not going to subside the efforts to make sure once again,

that the russian world, little skinny, or, uh, the model, excuse me, it is in danger. so the russian world is in danger. so yes, i mean, the more drastic on to russian sentiment is the more potent e in the north going to give up id, have to influence it one way or another. i'd like to take it back to the domestic situation within russia right now, where as we mentioned, you have spent months of the war. in the headlines, we see opposition figures like volley like carlos in jail. and yet you have spoken previously about the silent majority resisting in russia. what evidence have you observed of that as well? i mean, i just looked at the numbers and i tried to leave the re read the poles. and so $45.00 people, $45.00 or 45 percent of the russian population, say the support the war or be annoyed against the war. 25 percent of those people actually actively supporting at the 55 may or may not be in the let's remember that

all of this when you are they ask you a question. the following is asking you a question. you know that your potential know that i'm not supporting the special miller transformation can lead to a ras can lead to administrative, administrative punishment, and so on and so forth. so you really have to be quite a quite courageous, but also in actually tell the story elsewhere it's, it's a silent majority and that's what i mean by silent majorities that you go into the bookstore. there's old is very petri arctic books of how great russia is. and you know what not, and then of the middle of the, this incredible display of pictures and you'll have a george orwell mark sitting right in the middle of it and says the in the left, the bread, the thing that it said that she and this month so i buy this month because i'm thinking how, what incredible thing and then i come back a few days late and then there's another george orwell. mark. so somebody to just to read the month that was put, there was, it was put, there is a message, i mean,

you can see yellow and white arrangements all over and all over must go somewhere. i mean, been not necessarily you wouldn't know who makes them but, but they are there, you know, the flow is arranged this way or the color is the range this way some somehow. so it's, it's all there. but as i said, i mean i, i left 1st in january and then generally they moved was north militaristic, the war was elsewhere. i mean there was still life going on. now the billboards, the, uh, uh, the anger and that we're not winning, we're not losing our life. it's completely finished essentially the way it was. so we might as well, we do have to rally around the flag. and then they said, i mean that anger, the really, the stories absolutely ratcheting up, just because the message is, if you're not with us, you're going to be defeated. country, do you one bad? and many, many more russians know more and more, i should say, well, actually no, because we don't know what it is to be defeated country,

maybe it is scary. maybe we have to it least pretend that was supported. so, i mean, you've, you've talked about how this war has strengthened the ukrainian identity. what does happen to russian identity? it's come, it's, i mean, that's kind of nationalistic formula when put and says, well, the whole country supports it. well, no, i mean the 1000000 and have the keys left. i mean my, i, i write this in articles and everything and people want evidence and then what was correct music? well, 500000. so because if you could, if you put together all the countries that received thousands and thousands, hundreds of thousands of russians, probably a 1000000 and a half. and i'm actually being very modest here left to clearly not that mean it's a, it's a over one percent, almost 2 percent of the russian population. so not everybody's support and it's completely front man. did they done? if you people are people that everywhere a position is fighting them in that position, sustain deposition left a. they are fighting in monks amongst each other and also rush. she's now

incredibly divided. i mean, puts a bit more division to rush of. and donald trump ever managed to do in the united states because it's this kind of the khaki color, the military fatigues, identity, which is required, the requested. and then the other one is now the russian school. it is the person in a white coat. so you know about the frail and, and saying, you know, we, we are above all this. so it's, it's dispersed and identity truck men to the identity. but some require extreme national as and some just say we have to survive. i'd like to ask you to weigh in on these reports of a so called reawakening of totality. your instincts right now in russian society with people in forming on each other, like in the solid era, the opposition, as we've mentioned, silence jailed in exile. what sort of russian society do you think emerges from this war? i it's, it's a, i mean we, we goes advice. i mean, i know with every time we say we cry every day and i'm told, well, you know,

ukrainians also crying. but okay. um, i'm actually not a fan of collective punishment, so we're allowed to cry too. is russians and it's, you know, it is lost it's, it's going to go so cleansing and, and be a cool part. and how they're, you malign, rushing any possible way, divisions for decades to come. so, i mean, if it really is something that it's not just they, we awakening of totalitarian is because pituitary and there's even early, it's a total of tears. what would the formulas of left to told the periods was still formulas that suggested that even with drastic measure, we're moving forward. we're moving towards something that may make it better where russia is moving. now it really just old. this formulas of the 13th century closed . 2 in p a soon to be imperial power, as it was in the 13th century. now it is,

we want to go back to being an imperial power. so i cannot envision that the only thing that keeps saying is that george orwell, in 1994 has really russia is, is, is such. now the george always hasn't invented that you couldn't have invented what's going on a joint your 2022 with the, with an absolutely horrible consequences of this war. how do you think society of russian society eventually will move past the harvest committed? and ukraine, the, the, the allegations of war crimes including force deportation of children rapes torture . do you hope that the change will happen and happen any time soon? i don't know. i really don't know because i don't know how houses, how societies get over the war crimes. i mean, you know, we have an example of germany, but that's a rare example. it's actually, it's more of an exception than it is the rule. so i really don't know and what

that's why i think that when i talk about the anger that is rising up, it's exactly that is that well, since they are going to eliminate us, we're going to get angry, more nationalistic, and that's what i think putting this relying on how it's going to, it depends on what the opposition leader deposition leaders come back with. depends on who, how the more relaxed and it depends on who are replace, put in, because eventually it will happen. he's 17 year old man. it all depends on so many things. the one or 2 i'm so the, i'm the secretary late secretary of defense under george w bush was saying so many unknown unknowns that i really cannot speculate on that there are some that are saying that the war may, may last well into next year. if, if not longer dispute and have another year, is, is time on his side in this for a little it's in, in a war of attrition. yes. the time on his side, as i said, i actually think that the longer goes the, the less questions he would have to answer if it's not a complete loss,

if it's more the complete, you know, they running out of old i munition altogether, it is pretty bush and as big version kept um, uh, kept saying, kept, kept suggesting, i actually at the beginning of this would probably, even on that program, i said that it's, you know, it's a new again, it's done. it's going to look. 9 for a long time, i don't see the victory in it. i mean, once again, many unknown unknowns. i don't see victory of it. so it's going to be a long war of attrition until until it can no longer continue. so i would even imagine it goes into next year in maybe some random subject or maybe a full scale. but even for the in front of it, i really don't think we, we can know, i mean they've been at the beginning, it was only 2 weeks and then until january this year and that until the spring and then until the summer keeps going on. and so far, rush street is not winning is the way once and ukraine is not,

is not losing enough to really want to do something else. and so it's a mexican standoff. essentially, it's a horrible, horrible mexican stand up with many, many thousands of people die. all the time, you're a great grandfathers have power in, in russia after stolen died. and then he left office and what was a peaceful transfer of power at the time. it was certainly not a foregone conclusion. that, that would happen at that at that time. how do you think fruitless presidency might eventually end for so many unknown unknowns? um, i don't know. i mean, what is, depends on the war. it depends on how long the russians which, which, whether the angle of the russian society is sort of this whole of the khaki. katya kala petri it is and khaki colored identity will win over those who say, well, we want to rush it to be a global with on when that some of the fun slattich state, but it's slowly turning into into north korea. no, it's not a given actually. yeah it's, it's more chris,

you've been garbage in for more essentially flukes and in, in russian history. then the, then the reality, i think, i mean traditionally possibly of to put in they would be some sort of a reform, but it's sort of given. i mean, it could be, for example, you ask about the military bloggers and other than pre goshen. it could be a military coal, i mean, i know russian that perhaps you see of military coups but all can happen. it could be that kind of a revolution when the, the, the hard like, not just the hard line is, but there's really very militant forces will come to power and say, well, they're not taking us into the 13th century, imperial crimes you refresh than that. that's where we want to be. so it could be a revolution from the right. it could be, i don't see a revolution from, from the forces from are kind of liberal for it actually does that. right. and anyway, i don't see a revolution from the liberal forces. i can, i potentially see a revolution from the crowd liners and military military forces. but this is,

i want to get many unknown unknowns here possibly, but probably not soon enough. in september, alexi devonte warned a postwar of russia like post fruits and russia will be doomed to become belligerent and putting this again. only a parliamentary republic can prevents this. how high are your hopes that russia can eventually move beyond putting and putting isn't uh, not high, nor high. and why should try but way, parliamentary republic, anything else and had some sort of an idea about this by you see all send in that it didn't work out any way. because the article of power that top the power from the kremlin, that the personalized presidency as it is a fortune, uh that where everybody depends on him and their decisions, even if that he's not giving direct orders to everybody, is pretty much aware, pretty much of a soviet system and type of cruise ship came in, it was a collective government, and very soon it was christian talk. so this is

a personalized caribbean power at all times. so i don't have very high hopes for a better development of to put in is we have to leave it there and you know, crystal, the thank you so much for joining us on conference on. thank you for your time. thank you. the,

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