2020 russian troops invaded the ukrainian city of computer. it was recaptured. 6 months later the occupation was hard. how can lights go on after all the terror? not everyone can do with the fear we felt every day. when russia comes, start to august 25th on dw, the how roll did you have any promotion really go in his wagner uprising? has russia seen the last of him? but it looks like he goes and balls, skills and his people are still important for which in addition, several areas, for instance, in alpharetta, my guess this week on complex own is russian investigative journalist and security services expert. andre still got tough. it's added to our website tracts, the russian intelligence services will put in perch the system, which is a really good ad conducting repressions. especially,

i guess his own people who have several s as the people in jail that have ministers sends out. governor sends out how long can put and hold onto our andre. so that tough welcome to complex down. thank you for having me. you are in contact with whistle blowers and the russian security services. why did per goes and really stop his march towards moscow while, because it was never about trying to take power. and to take moscow, it was about rand negotiator in his deal with foods and as a minister of defense and the ones you understood that he miscalculate that he wanted to still to get some figure out the best situation. so his son, his columns to most scowled, but it was most of that to apply for a time when find that he got what you wanted, or this, what he could get out of the situation. his stuff. nevertheless, he got quite far and it's being called the most dramatic challenge to pollutants authorities since he came to power to an me 3 years ago is progression and still

a threat to pollutants? things the biggest is the biggest problem. fraud is not big, goes into a said bob do action that was the army and that was the russian security services. everybody understood that big wars and while he might be extremely adventurous, yes, he has a lot of people on the, he's come on several files and people, bob's xerox. and those are me is what matters now and give us the fact that nobody wanted to stop recording and the security services that people have a put in charge of providing the political stability or follow up which is great. gym did absolutely nothing as a f, as b local office, central stuff on don't does body care of themselves. and the headquarters that send a very warning signal to puts and then to moscow that it's not all okay. and these people who are in charge of well protected him actually doing nothing. nevertheless, the kremlin has been trying to dismiss the uprising,

calling it minor trouble. in contrast, you have the use top people, not warning, but prudent, has lost the monopoly of force and an unstable rush. it becomes a risk. how serious do you see the uprising and how fragile is the russian state? again, i think the problem is not the only bit because on here is uh, an extremely uh, interesting color to bob's. uh, his, uh, the options are limits. he doesn't have any uh, law public support provided by other members selves. there are some that leads for instance, and ottoman didn't support hamilton. they bought several things to be happened during visit prize, and reg assumed a warning for instance, fizz. um now infamous of is yeah. wow. big wars is sticking together. verify depth to me to self defense. yes. cor, of the shows that, that you had of the rough minutes for intelligence. alex save and a shave or loss

a bod. xyzzy off taking all gates and actually show you're going to rush them off. well, that's boss pump, so it's a shocking for me and i need it to contact with my source. i sense of russian security to services and special forces and ask them what do they think? and they bought the idea of that you have to tell us how those there are some boots for intelligence. uh basically saying while you can have um, if you want. uh, and my people said, wow, actually i like say it was right. and i think that was even more worth some 4 points. and because in this case you have the most capable of madison's russian middle tray and russian security services, publicly questionnaire as admitted tray. i dare say, given all of that, what you've just highlighted there, how much support do you think from corrosion might have had covertly from inside of the security service? it is the military, the leads because i mean, it appeared that his human, his wagner mercenaries that they meant no resistance. yes,

absolutely. the once again, i just wanted to stress as a f, as be decided to do the opposite of to nothing. and they had and they control online some right? why did they fail to stop? you have any promotion? is what wagner uprising earlier? why was the biggest uh, i think the answer is that separate goes in is, uh, is it kind of, maverick, he's not part of the system. so for the system, for the russian system of intelligent security, 10 minutes restructure, as it's weird, it difficult to understand his place and position. everybody understands that it's all about putting together some personal connection. and the problem is, nobody knows, for instance, uh, what is this connect soon as we speak. so maybe it's really bad, maybe is getting better, maybe is getting worse. so we don't now the general social, they didn't know at the moment, those uprising what might be that connection. and they just decided to wait and see . you highlighted one particular point in your previous writing,

um the fact that the security service in particular, in moscow, they called on wagner fighters to go and arrest your guinea per goes in their own leader. and this is especially extraordinary because the assess these military counter intelligence operatives are within wagner's ranks. how are you seeing this? because this is their job, isn't it isn't, isn't it a huge break and loyalty to the kremlin? how would this be being viewed right now by putting himself as a really good question? because i was this office for people like us from outside their selves. the system of the f is be off cost. it looks like a complete file. these people that put that to walk them to cumberland involves the problems which might come up out of, of the walk in a group as that to us. a primary drop, right? uh, and as i says be, is not only about to impressions. that's about prevention risk. i'm not saying stuff happened. and so they felt that there's upsets are clear about the same times . a problem this puts in is that he is to some extent parts of the system. just

remember that he is a trained kids, you'd be office and in the similar circumstances. so 2 years ago and that's and that's 11, as a kid you be in some wild people as a pilot and they're all wanted to stage occluded, taught and topple gorbachev most of the ranks. uh, inside of the kitchen being decided to do exactly is this same to wait and see what's in did absolutes in less thing. his friends, people, he now respects and who on now is a i'll on, is a key positions and as a russian security services, they all do the same. they did absolutely nothing, nothing and not to not to one. so you'll have this strange, emotional thing, shape and all false statement that actually when something really big is happening is not up. there's a security services to decide when to opt, which is absolutely uh, concert protective,

but never said as they have it up. senior pentagon officials have highlighted that the uprising highlights poor coordination between the military and other security services. can you give us a window into how deep the connections are, for example, between the military rushes security services and wagner in particular? well, 1st of all, i'm, i do not completely agree with this assessment. just remember that as of paid time off is uprising. the russian army kept finding that you're brand new and comprehensive. that it was no collapse, all falls, the russian forces as a vocal fold. so the only things a face to face and the option to deal with was this particular muted in offering garzon. and here you'll have all the problems beller says lucas jenko said that he ultimately procured the deal that sa precaution has. wagner force has a band and they're march toward moscow. is lucas shank over 2000000 humiliating fulton, or did he save him?

well, i think it was the whole. think about bill every sound. look, i think i participation of cause made puts in locus to me a week. just remember that for many, many years, which it was familiar with, things that idea and met can it sacrifice the idea of national southern see that was such a big thing that you can ball just to find all kinds of pressure on this. if you want to while to promote this thing, and that is why they got those are impressions in our country because it is a wake off national, southern, and mile ones. you guys are real problem. pushing got the kids a real problem. while he left his mind a popped up uh, alexander walker, son gotta go fix his internal program. so it does look for pollution. really good. lucas franko also saying that promotion is now in bella roost. although there's been no independent confirmation. he also hasn't been heard for it from in more than a week. what do you think is happening to per goshen? is the soul live? well, it's difficult to say, but i think he's still very much alive. uh,

1st of all, what is well, in his grades this situation is really difficult to understand what is going on. spots better of several interesting science stuff, the fault, the whole, think about criminal charges. so it's changing. but as far as i dad's and the started as far as that, everybody got it as a criminal charges fund that adult, which is a big thing because one puts in and to come in, wants to expel somebody for real. well, you have the criminal charges, it gets to be a spouse. and for instance, in my case, i'm a wanted man in russia and i have criminal charges against me. so if i ever get back to the county, i am facing up to 10 years in prison, and that is a guarantee i was never getting back. but for precaution, they decided to make an exception so that it was no criminal charges. so legally speaking, but as nothing to prevent him from getting back to the same pitch as a boat to moscow to that now it's just safe at the spots of his business and pot for goes. you know, i mean he's,

he's been promised this immunity. we have to say um, but he got richard who is this close ties to food now put in his actually mentioned that the finances of precautions lucrative catering firm will be investigated. how do you see that? is this a signal that he could actually be prosecuted for financial crimes or, you know, was put in just trying to take them down a notch. i think it's about some parts of precautions to a business business and bar because of cost with the some companies that are assigned, they've been that for years spot. they had no chance. now they got this chance. so that trying to win this. so contracts provided by the government times administer of defense. mothers looks like gardens, ball skills and his people still important for put an address in several areas, for instance in africa. and it looks like uh, you come in does the one to completely dis, bond walk. now, and was that activation say in the middle list and africa progression had been

railing against the top military brass for months. ultimately, he said that the kremlin state of reasoning behind the war and ukraine was false, wanting to put and allow the threat posed by promotion to fester for so long. well, pushing on the stands that's very clear that even in last or of unpopular wars could produce very popular generals. and these generals, at some moment my become a political frat. that happens many times in russian history. pushing, understands that he understands fights. he cannot let to go. so he wanted to have some accounts of balance to that, some sort of maverick from my expos of programs in submitted tray and to peep, mid trade generals off balance. that's exactly what was the role of precaution for all of these months. let's talk about the wagner miller scenary griffin. what happens to them next? they've been thrown into disarray. the fight for control is said to have just begun

. lucas tango has invited mercenaries to relocate to in a band into military base in the country. there are some reports of new satellite images appearing to show tents being set up in belarus to that effect. is that their best offer to go to bella roost and are they likely to take it? well i think that that some moment which in just decided to relocate robin or to say if his public image of someone who is still on in control of the situation and the because it will suck cumulate and to have well by the soldiers. martian of the, they're all, it's in russia, so he decided to really catch him, him to the lowest cost. i mean, wagner has no other customers by the russian stage. billow is very much penetrated by uh, by the russians so, so it's not like you was expelled to some independent country and out a free trump law. scott, that's not true. the us says that right now,

they're continuing to see some elements of the wagner group in russian occupied territory. and ukraine. ukrainian intelligence says that wagner will not fight in ukraine any more. do you think that wagner in ukraine will go willingly, and it's about an interesting question that we have some reports written to actually today that so was not about office to say is it is the statement that they stopped recruiting people. uh right now for fonts and then ukraine bots um the language to be used as their and because it's like we have stuff in for now. so maybe the outpatient for some of the office over to full, maybe they would get would be given a new name. so, but i think somebody minutes of this group, the fonts and as they did before, let's talk a little bit more about how russians are viewing all of this ukranian presidents. a landscape says that moscow has been suffering full scale weakness. he calls it for goes and has apparently tapped into the view that prudent is and is

a corrupt system where the ruling, the lead had been emerging themselves and are more interested in pleasing, put, and then doing what is right for national interest to ordinary people. that that's the message which seems to have resonated how high is the dissatisfaction with bruton and food newsome a while uh, in the middle of the tray. uh, the rear is a clear uh, spinning size russian generals as old as on not extremely competent. and it's a, it's a very interesting in our wonderful situation because it is right now that the russian army is the case of this new found confidence in themselves. because actually is, are you crazy on the fence or physics seem to slow all that is the perception of the russian army is not my perception, but that's the holiday season situation. they base fear that it could be a really big know of a c. it's not that big and not back horrible. uh, so that gets in this sense alpha uh, that sound, not actually bad, bad. uh,

at the same time, but keep layman's age and you're all saying that that's why they supported to some extent of silence. they may be p gordon's criticism because they share the same feeling, but it does move that, that ready to just don't take about it. so they still got approval and the sit in class, we need to find visible federal for very long time. is that. but here's how the, the head of the c, i a, is framing the situation. he says that disaffection with the world will continue to know away at the russian leadership, and that it creates a once in a generation opportunity for the c. i. a to recruit spies in russia. you are very familiar with the security services. do you think that the c i will find fertile ground for recruitment or? well, i think rather we, as you know, there's a lot though visual thinking. yeah. we are trying to identify every sign of, of descent as a, as a signal about the system a will in that,

but the blood collapse and the know as a and the metal for several months. i would be extremely, i would be more cautious to be honest. it's not likely that lots of people accepted xyzzy. i was a war includes as a russian, the, let's put in those who are you good at conducting repressions, especially against his own people who have several s as the people in general that have ministers sends out governance in general. so it is a big thing for the russian society and lots of people in their lives found the stands that that's actually there is no way for them, but to stay and to stay loyal to food channel. so i would, i would say by that point c, i a, it's my, the end up a soon it see uh, but i would be cautious also the problem is bad to say which was the best people find that it was a chance for defection with and right now for the rest of the lives, because the folder restrictions saw for travel. i mean the truck with easy to, to make it through europe. all it isn't that the stays, the chances that the same people as a russian. that is what think, ok,

maybe now i start spying because i'm a concerned about so give, give me a chance to, to move on to the events and that just stays that quite slow. i'm putting um, since the uprising he has been seeming to be bent on projecting normalcy and stability, we've seen him ramping on public appearances. and the week after the uprising, he gave a number of national addresses for training the rebellion. as a heroic episode, he travelled to the southern region of diag a stand where he sipped local cognac. he spoke about growing regional tourism. he even attended a technology fair in moscow. what are russians make of that? or are they buying it? well, no, not all of them off gone so especially in big stages, bugs and proven, says you have lots of people who are still very supportive of pollution and they accept as a russian propaganda adoption of the, of. and so that puts in my asset to avoid blog shit on the assignment stuff you did actually have that it was no real big blog said uh,

except for this unfortunate pilots and it is appropriate for the middle of tray. not for that population provision. i mean, his rants, they really offer this alternative to the war propaganda. for many russians in unvarnished glimpse from the front lines you highlighted the useless and unjustified losses. convulsions really go back to regularly scheduled programming. well, that's a good question, but i think what? because we wanted to do, uh, he wanted to become some sort of, uh, uh, you will press it for, says russian society, all we have is a license to uh, tags or us. and it leads to mobilize the rest of society, which and does one side. he still thinks that it's possible to win the business war, filed the total mobilization, but we don't know what might happen if say you agree on the offensive goes with the success of fall. we just don't know that might change the situation. and if that

changes, there might be new space and you room for pure gold and then people are, can, let's talk about prudent for us to short because power, 1st of all is a crack down under way. as that is one thing which is clear. uh, also it gives the services as army as a national gout. they loan. is it less than that? why do you have a program? is it? oh no. such a circle of pollution is about to not go into fair and i think it is a very bad signal for points and because, well what if tomorrow some of the guys say could do it? of all someone, all is the rest of the security council. now come opposite the russian television and say, wow, i'll wasn't provides you major and go to hell, and we need to replace, give someone that would be a huge confusion by this class right now. you. if you look at the overall situation, though, russia's most senior generals, they, they've dropped out of view since the uprising i'm thinking about general harass

him off he's reporting not appeared in public. he's of course, in charge of the war effort and ukraine. the kremlin has also been deflecting questions about the whereabouts of general sort of the can, who is seen as aligned with precaution and believe to be detained. what do you think is happening to them? a while it's really difficult to understand. i've been checking the information about sort of a can for all these days. it looks like sort of forced by to was sent to prison. we kind of confirmed them, but he said it seems that he was at least interrogate as. and it's quite interesting vibes we are here and visit almost a bows in middle of the region. you're all smart enough about the security services, which is a very interesting thing. while you have these people, i'm is f as b as a national guard. all of the security services pulled in charge of putting us personal security and political stability. it is yet all the questions that come to has it's all about some of the trick. how much impact do you think these events of

the past weeks are going to have on the war and ukraine? um, it's a good question because on the one hand we see of that walk in our didn't participate directly, at least in big numbers and, and trying to selves your brain counter offensive. it is a jump, was a regular russian army. while at the same time was there is still a very capable force and they have his reputation ends the russian military. yet there is new confusion now because of the obviously i'm using it stays by longer because of this policy through upheld full opposite to nothing. well, which is of course, enough of as was about to be spiel of his pilots, were killed because of a on another the russian heroes. but it was the middle tri are here and is that, that it would be no justice for the, for, for his policy. and that samuel is, nobody would be prosecute that for killing this, this policy. and that credit and you confusion, it means that it has a re,

regular army still finds in the bottle failed. you will have a number of product miniature companies as an ottoman now is looking at this product mutual company as well as some suspicion because these guys already approved frederick and kill russian soldiers and they can get away the fed. so these condos confusing and long dollar my sites, the situation is about the felt the ukrainian counter offensive has, is not yet achieved significant success, according to nato's top commander in europe. do you think that now there is more pressure on putting to end the war? no, i don't think so. i think what pushing on the stance is, uh uh very was such a big investment in inside. yeah. of your brand new encounter offensive. uh, wallace was a big thing for uh for us. are you planning on dropping them as far as are you bringing latest ship? i was a big thing from may. jeff was a west in russia. it was played as a sign that the russian army well behaved at the and actually it was not extremely

uh, great. uh, is it big enough to walk by the vegas in batch? are there is this. uh, there is a strange feeling now, especially because it's all about history and the 2nd baltimore and all of that. so there is these ideas shaded by man, yet by the russian army, olga stats of war. uh, and the very bad shape bought a guessing best uh on the way and put you on this trying to capitalize on vis spelling. i'd like to ask you one last question about the uprising, the wagner uprising because many are concerned that if putting does fall, the concern is that a replacement leader could be worse crumbling, critical krakowski said the following week, glimpse how the regimes inevitable fall is likely to come about and the forces that we'll seek to take over so called national patriots, led by another fog. if you look at the big picture, do you think that russia is ultimately doomed to have one thug replaced by another? after putting or all our thoughts into it might happen because as

a more visible goes, is it more as the russians aside, is, gets and used of as well. and now the, i guess it is a motional argument and save opposite will because there's so many casualties. there's so many people killed. and even the people who felt well confused about the beginning of the war. now they have visited in growl and my villas. someone gets killed by these ukrainian, so why should i feel sore and bought some more. so, and some, in some way, the support for that was guessing all it's not big about it's, it's most stable and it means that the whole system of the society projection itself does idea that while it's going to be with a long war. and in the long war you get people like general sand as why, while using the very top language a more and more and more popular pop law. and at some moment they might get some miles from position in depaula. yeah,

that's true. how long do you think putting has while i think is about talking about years under so that definitely have to leave it there. thank you so much for joining us on conflicts on a thank you. the

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