the forest fires evaporating large amounts of moist tune in to get the onset and learn more about the heavy and visible over the flows through the sky starting september 20th on the w. the bottom. it pretends allies and nemesis shift any precaution has been laid to rest. is wagner groups brief. nobody opened a troubling chapter that the kremlin wants to close. but our wagner's mercenaries ready to swear allegiance to the russian state and be absorbed by it. what fate lies in store for this? a huge horse that has intervened and conflicts from africa to ukraine. consignment, portent when the over ordinary citizens who share precautions view that crushes on the wrong track. and how much pressure is russia under us? the ukraine more drags on. today we're asking how secure is put in script on power

after the death of wagner, chief precaution, the hello and welcome to the point. it is a pleasure to greet our guest beginning with good stuff, chris. so who is the security and defense expert and senior policy fellow at the european council on foreign relations? and my esteemed colleague, finding municipal off works on dw, is russian desk. and it's a pleasure to welcome send a claim. uh, she's a historian and visiting research fellow at this easy f center for a contemporary history and todd and christine. yes, let's start with the funeral itself. it was quite a low key affair. it was shrouded in secrecy. c sharp,

criminal and would very much like to turn the page document. 14 of course, stayed away from the funeral. will it succeed now in making a higher status? i think so. i think so it's very an option of living into play and i think the way the funeral was stage to orchestra type is a perfect mouth to solve what's going on. because what's going on to gordon, where both heroes of russia and i'll expect to the, according to the protocol to the given state pin, arose with all the pomp and circumstance. but none of that happened to where speculation is about how and where and when it's going to take place. the funeral itself, i think the press was not allowed and we have occasional pictures of the widow and the daughter of course conspiracy theories of proliferate side, whether it's actual, pre, gordon, who is buried. there may be his, you know, missing somewhere and hiding somewhere like, you know, kind of bowl laptop um, expecting about the times. and actually, i think pictures from the pool that we have um, a very telling stories this uh,

very sort of a picture of the main trouts or 5 point by joseph bolts, k and then golden frame, resembling about of an icon, and are actually pictures. that's all right, they celebrate big ocean as a motto with a slash online hans, which is also also a different topic. but now this picture is full of from the balance. it's one of the joseph volts case christian points about mary coming to the cross and confronting the border of jesus asking whether he's a son of god, whether he's alive or dead. and i think that's also a hint of the public confusion as to what the actual frequent was and has been informed, cent berries on whether his life. so why do we, let's talk about that confusion. russian investigators have now confirmed that precautions been killed. they did dna analysis supposedly, and russia is not planning to take part in any international investigation of the

plane crash that killed pre goes. and often such an investigation is customary, but rest apparently has said it's not going to take part. so how much do we really know for sure, how sure can we be? that precaution truly is dead as that protein was involved in the crash? well, there's a book describing cross and that attitude, but actually modern gravity or, or i can take advantage of the book because of the title. nothing comes through and everything is possible. you know, this book is the best line describe the, the kind of state of mind of our people and our board public doing good news from russian because everything kind of puts an adult and get your doctor basically every news that they would and every single single word from russian for us goes in is gone. she's not anymore here. no, thank you. sure. everything is possible. it's possible just in terms of proteins own involvement or the kremlin the states involvement in the crash. essentially

nothing happens in russia with out putins complicity. isn't that the case? that's what joseph biden said recently, and because there are some, i mean, so you need someone very high level and involved on such kinds of airplane progress, the able to, to, to shut down or it was a bump on board. i don't know. i personally will probably not even know if more but the point is that this is not just the criminal strip guns. kidding. it's not just the accident on the streets. it's about the car accident. it's something really big entity need that the big preparation to do the act like list. so then you can stipulate on the, on possible involvement of criminal or possible employment or for a very high level, political, whatever, security services, whatever. but the state of the russian production information system is that time that we kind of discharge on anything the yeah,

come kind of coming back to why no international investigation, what would be the international thought of that investigation about the plane that crashed was made in brazil it's embrace, so it belongs to the boeing white, a boeing family of factors. so usually if you have flight x accident with a plane, you'll have a in the international flight investigate as taking part of the investigation to determine future safety and flight safety risks for this type of aircraft. which because if you have, for example, if you remember these, uh, boeing 737 accidents that happened in asia as, as you with a boeing experts. you had an american express, you had, i say, experts there now and nothing happens like, god, that means, okay. so this is something else and the russian state has something to hide from them. of course we don't know what it has to hide and what he wants to hi,

but we can say, but it's all here being pushed out in active operations in ukraine by, by may basically. alrighty. and so he, he full 3 guides, action to preserve as much from his employer are as us as the court. now of the fate of these people in belarus, the former fight. this is a no dial satellite images that just says that a lot of people have left hope you're doing it. where probably to private life many how many from the there in the 1st place is, is another guess. um uh, the international operations roughly continue um and this is of course they are in the interest of the criminal sort of criminal try to maintain their operations enough for a kind let in america cetera. bought this thing is of course, and we saw that in the rush off because some of the, the pretty guardian was allowed to access international leaders. he's, i mean,

pretty caution was not a military leader. he was the salesman of the, of the company in the front mine form for the whole show. and the part of these contracts and relationship with these machines are risk. they don't, he's crease months. i don't know how all relations will continue. i guess some of these regimes still need russian assistance whether they come from pretty goshen or for someone else. um for maintaining getting machines bought of course, um sort of the one of the not in the, in the relationships and with these relationships easy is about personal relationship and trust and knowledge of each other is gone. but yeah, well let's take a closer look at those points and where things go from here for a mercenary force that was known for its brutality and its international beach bouquets of flowers for precaution, and a lot of speculation about the future of wagner's army. the russian army could take

control of the mercenaries, or they could transfer the soldiers to another pair of military unit like reduced or co talk. or the unit could be allowed to continue as they are under the leadership of a new leader loyal to the kremlin. were let's say that pollutants favors wagner's founder. andre trolls as who did not participate in the to do. you serve him 2 days after per goes and private jet crashed who issued a decree that mercenaries must take an oath of allegiance to the russian state. just like soldiers. clearly he wants to keep depending on private armies, whether they're dispatched to africa or ukraine, who is also bestowing even more power on long term loyal as general victor solid task head of the national guard which was founded in 2016. he will get new weapons like tanks and other equipment in addition to the regular state army, there's now a domestic army that the russian president can depend on,

the russian security forces and mercenaries is everything under control. so let me put that question straight to explain. yeah, is everything under control? it's tough to say again, but i think very much so i think that they are trying to now discuss those resources. and i think at some point as you've shots a pretty gordon became a lose cannon. very hard to control. and now i think they are relying more on other military groups, what's not a lot of resources by far smaller resources, that was strange that involved not ever was. and those resources of capers asked including media resources, the tools factory. they are going to find new hands. we're not quite sure which hands some of the resources. some of these assets are going to stay within the family. the business resources are relating to his capturing business and i'm going to save sky departments joins and petersburg to collect these am that also

occasionally belongs to his his wife or something. um, but i think in terms of uh the military assets, um, some of the people are going to beacons, purposes where the defense ministry are. those will leave because the left of the regular army in the 1st place for reasons. so they might not be likely to return to regular army. there's also a question of who's going to pay them because most of his motion was where paid them cash. actually the, the voc now veterans sold to say describe the actual trucks with money, cash and backs with the limits to them, bases and distribute types. what's going on to that now? you know, it's also a question related to his man and bill, original question, cuz i'm going to pay them. let's come back in a moment to where the money is. but let me ask of audi me a 1st about this attempt to now to get mercenaries and private armies to swear allegiance which we just heard about. the plane crash, the cube precaution, came almost exactly 2 months after his wagner groups brief mutiny. that in part was

about precisely this issue. putting, had demanded that the mercenaries then swore swear legions. and wagner basically didn't want to do that. is it any more likely to succeed this attempt to integrate them into the normal defense for is now, isn't it did then it grew is missing, but the to be completely different. story of this private army wagner being made the state own company because of a buckner in regards to the business and bar is a throw corporate. it was found that the kind of private service from the state privates states isn't to like blake, what they are in the image. united states was it was a parade up in that rock during the war. so they were able to those things which states agencies the state structure, so i'm not able to do, i'm not allowed to do. so. it was a very important difference point between wagner on precautions. business on state findings by state state sponsored, but not the officer and being part of the russian state. and now being transformed

to the part of the rest of the state, the army states army trust sector on structure of social security services. but the national nation, notified the state on up, so we'll see how good or how well it will be this transform ation of the work and how the whole business of bring was 12. a break is a very good thing because next year we have a residential presidential election in the united states or us and we will be willing to help someone to bring the selection again. and it's a crucial point as well, because it's extremely important for us and operation in the okay, and who will be in the next presented to united states. so just keep in mind this part of the business of promotions notes important that external outreach, business environment was just talking about is sometimes called a expeditionary foreign policy of good stuff. it's essentially uh, a private arm that can do cobra to activities in the interest of the state. and in this case, clearly in africa and in syria,

those interests were designed both to extend russian influence, but also to counter u. s. influence. so where does that go now? is that going to be taken over by the state itself? we have seen putting, trying to court african leaders is at the summit that he held with them in july. on the other hand of some of them seemed to have felt a very close tie to precaution himself. how did, how do you see that developing wagner was not so fond detached from the state. uh, as you already mentioned, it operated as kind of a fig leaf for an estate. and i say pretty guardian or id wasn't gauged control farms long before wagner came around. so he had this kind of outsourcing business. he was already there. now the military operations will serve you with can his deputy also killed in a crash. he was in 20122013. he wasn't serious trying to boost um

the sort of training for the syrian army for us outs for she didn't even go very well. it, it, it was, he was, he was a general office so, so the military intelligence service that during the cold war, always did this kind of missions, cooperation, mandatory training for allied forces in for soviet allies and comedies proxies all across the world. training of revolutionaries due to stage cruise. all that stuff was, was always done um by uh, uh, by the general um, so they basically came back and said, okay, it is not going as well as we intend that. so let's, let's find some other way to finance and to, to put trade is there was a huge media attention on what was going on is here at the time, fulton was not really sure whether he should intervene on the south side. he didn't want to pitch him, but there was sort of the us red lines of okay, obama never least up to them. but now we know that obama never lived up to them

back then us red lines by taking bloody seriously. um, so a walk. now i'm sort of combining, but it's the, the sales guy, pretty grossing the kind of mafia, money loan. they're all pretty gosh and, and that's what he's called putting shift that's known as examples. the money laundering for doing a lot of other things with the monetary originally putting this cook. yeah. yeah. he had a catering enterprise, but that is so that's like cold calling the commodity pizza delivery. so yes, that was the 2 pastors but also um i sort of to combine these 2 and say, okay, you're the head of this company and here are 0, g, a real guys. and now let's combine this and send them to see written lens. we send them to you train and a scale it works and it worked pretty well. the problem, of course, has done sort of pretty caution, got over confidence in his business, but, but this was the ration. but now i think they want to go back to that route to have

close ties between intelligence, russian foreign policy and the kind of steel brass plate cover for that. if i may, my impression is the dress, it doesn't keep bugging. there anymore is it, is it kind of company to hide behind this because the russian state is not in a new stage of development russians. they came open to what they were like without any fighting the behind thing and private companies. we kind of drove a break because because it was for very long time denying that she was ordered up to 1200 or of north of our bargaining groups. and until recently to a couple of months ago, it came up, come out with this huge acknowledgement that the keys on the real popular. so our report said that it appears that the russian state would none the less continue to rely in future on private armies. do you think that's true saying yeah, and if it is true, have those who lead these private are armies and there are a number of different ones out there. have they gotten the message from production

stuff that it would be advantageous to them not to act like rivals as a much as they might have gotten this mass, which i guess this was possibly intention as well. um, as for the other uh, private military companies, as i've mentioned the last, well trains less equipped um they have a view of financial resources. obviously, we know for example, rebuilt. i think it's the biggest of them all associated with the pass code and seem to incur it's actually again, not quite clear who has the upper hand. they are. is it possible attention call, have a role to play and syria protecting um south and force faith resources rush that was came on for texting and see there. but, but they have 7000 men. it's by. they don't have this opportunity to recruit from pino, count colon a so web to gordon date. so in terms of the military expertise in terms of their resources and, you know, actually also the media clouds. they are less the risk, but i guess we're going to see the right lot around 40 profit companies in various

capacities authorizing now some of them have already signed contracts for the defense ministry, but i mean, they cannot be compasses in terms of the original scope. and strength with bulk now . so let's look beyond the fate of wagner itself and return to the question of we have precautions. death via vladimir putin. targeted killings have been no rarity under fourteen's rule, but is the report which they no longer reinforce his dominance. alexander licks and then go used to be a g, g b officer at lakeside him, you're putting glitter at you worked for britain in my 6th and accused the kremlin ruler of orchestrating the assassination of journalist on a political sky, a liquid and go died in exile in london in 2006 and the british judge ruled that 2 russians had spiked his team with radioactive polonium at pollutants orders. sergey script paul is a former double agent in 2018. he was almost murdered by

a nerve agent known as nava chalk, and salisbury. u. k. narrowly surviving london believes that put in was the mastermind of this attack as well. what about you have jimmy precaution? he was long considered to be strong man, especially in ukraine, but in june he spent his mercenaries to moscow and then attempted to that meet the president, look week after what we're experiencing is treason and the feedback is exactly 2 months later if jenny precaution is dead, according to official reports, he died in a plane crash between moscow and saint petersburg. the kremlin calls accusations of its involvement in absolute life can expect more betrayals in the future. let me put that question to you. uh, good stuff. uh, you mentioned camara and there is a mafia, esc quality. certainly to these targeted murders. they're designed to signal

dominance as with the mafia. but could it backfire? i think on the short term, not on the long term hunters. for, for now putting uh has consolidated his power. you see that for example, in inquiry on the russian armies, again, going on the defensive, despite numerous general generals saying that, well actually we should go on the defense. we need the resources that are wasted into. so for ends, for funding of the training come to offensive cetera. but it's the president who wants to have an offensive, especially against a sort of pushing for the, from around school blast and, and, and going to slowly and coming towards from the north. this is the old actually is that repeat more plan of what's happened last year. so you can see that, that within your own forces, resistance against the president against english explained a plans that actually did on big for mental to the war effort from,

from the russian point of view. there is no position anymore. so, so putting on the short term on the tax, it was time has one on the other hand, the war is far from over yet. and the more voting imprints who's sort of his personal orders imprint themselves negatively on the war effort. the more he runs the risk that each might backfire thoughts. this is brother a long term thing. here. let me ask you to weigh in on the consequences going forward, both for the war and ukraine and also in russia domestically. we do have elections coming up in 2024. the kremlin spokesman recently said they're actually not necessary because shortly vladimir 14 will be re elected. but does he need a positive turn in ukraine for that to happen? and will it occur if the wagner group is no longer playing the role it has? i'm pretty sure the real create some kind of positive turns into their crane before the election as a kind of public public relations. this style not done. as soon as we know of them

for, for sure, i agree with you with this long term long term. no one knows, but the short term is quite, quite stable. that is to some extent because that position because neither of these private companies, private companies have such a hurry. so could as much figure on, on the, on the subject as my to, to, to go with such a political ambitions. because acute precautions developed quite strong political message, and there isn't really months even before the porch before this whole, think 2 months ago. so read and no one knows that political message kasanya, some of the russian citizens who have been congregating around impromptu memorials that have sprung up in moscow near the kremlin. but also elsewhere seemed to feel seemed to still embrace precautions view that russia is not on the right track in ukraine and whether they are anti war or somehow pre, goshen,

hardliners. they seem to be quite dissatisfied how, what do you know about public opinion? very little, i think that's also logical. solve is, i'm barely reliable. and actually i'm a bit confused about the public reaction to, to you staff because of the i've read a lot of reports. i'm done sort political field studies done exactly at the side of those. and from 2 memorials, and some people are very unhappy about the course of the role of the sticks to the official line. and i guess they will feel a bit open to 5 to gordon's demise because can you create them some glimpse of identity? it pulls it by density full fox and rods, especially those conscripts of all the laws from prisons as heroes. notice traitors notice coming be yours, but the social for respectable citizen from the miss this funds on the loan game provided. but that's just diffract mental population. in other words, not a threat to pretend script support. i think the rest of the se unimpressed is very

sort of immune to any strong feelings and reactions to whatever happens poisonings . notice plain shots and they open a piece, went on and process for found way. thank you very much to all of you for being with us today. and thanks to all of our viewers for to and again, check out our website. tell us what you think the

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c w. news line from berlin. more than the people dying in a building fire in south africa. officials in the city of johannesburg say at least 12 children are among the dead. the building was used as an informal settlement president from a post that calls in a brief tragedy. a leader of the extremist proud boys militia in the us was sentenced to 17 years in prison for his role in the january 6 attack on the capital in washington. dc.