the forest fires of f as in large amounts of moisture to name to get the onset and learn more about the heavy and visible over the flows through the sky starting september 20th on the w. the item before teens allies and nemesis certificate, any precaution has been laid to rest, is wagner groups brief. nobody opened a troubling chapter that the kremlin wants to close. but our wagner is mercenaries ready to swear allegiance to the russian state and be absorbed by it. what fate lies in store for this? a huge horse that has intervened in conflicts from africa to ukraine, consignment put in when to over ordinary citizens who share precautions. view that process on the wrong track. and how much pressure is restaurant under as the

ukraine more drags on. today we're asking how secure is put in script on power after the death of wagner, chief precaution, the hello, and welcome to to the point. it is a pleasure to greet our guest beginning with good stuff, chris. so who is the security and defense expert and senior policy fellow at the european council on foreign relations? and my esteemed colleague, finding me jason pop works on dw is russian desk. and its pleasure to welcome send a claim. uh she's a historian and visiting research fellow at this easy f center for contemporary history and todd and christine yes. let's start with the funeral itself. it was quite a low key affair. it was shrouded in secrecy. see, sorry,

mcclellan would very much like to turn the page document. 14, of course, stayed away from the funeral. will it succeed now in making a hiatus? i think so. i think so, it's very much and i'm level into fate. and i think the way the funeral was strange to orchestrate, to it as a perfect mouth to follow what's going on. because oregon and gordon were both heroes of russia. and i'll expect to the, according to the protocol to the given state pin, arose with all the pomp and circumstance. but none of that happened to where speculation is about how and where and when it's going to take place. the funeral itself, i think the press was not allowed and we have occasional pictures of the widow and the daughter of course conspiracy theories of proliferate tides, whether it's actual pre gordon who is buried, there may be his, you know, missing somewhere and hiding somewhere like you know honey bo laptop i expect saying about the times. and actually, i think pictures from the tools that we have

a very telling stories this a very sort of a picture of the main crowns or 5 point by joseph brooks. k. and the golden frame resembling about with an icon and to actually pictures. that's all right. they celebrate the goals and as a motto with a slash on hans, which is also also a different topic. but now this picture is full of the plans. it's one of the joseph broke his christian, a points about mary coming to the cross and confronting the border of jesus asking whether he's or sign of god, whether he's alive or dead. and i think that's also a hint of the public confusion as to what the actual frequent was and has been informed cent berry. and so what the, his life. so why do we, let's talk about that confusion. russian investigators have now confirmed that precautions been killed. they did a dna analysis supposedly, and russia is not planning to take part in any international investigation of the

plane crash that killed pre goes. and often such an investigation is customary, but rest apparently has said it's not going to take part. so how much do we really know for sure. how sure can we be that pre goshen truly is dead on that protein was involved in the crash? well, there's a book describing crossing that attitude, but actually hold under added to your order and take advantage of the book because of the title. nothing comes through and i would think it's possible. you know, if this book is the best line, describe the, the kind of state of mind of our people and our board public dealing with news from russian because everything kind of puts an adult in your doctor. and basically every news that they would and every single single word from russian for us goes in is gone. she's not anymore here with nothing can sure everything is possible as soon as possible just in terms of putting his own involvement or the

kremlin the states involvement in the crash. essentially nothing happens in russia with out putins complicity. isn't that the case? that's what joseph biden say recently, and there are some, i mean, so you need someone very high level and involved on such kinds of airplane progress, able to, to, to shut down or it was a bump on board. the don't know it for. so it will probably not even know if more but the point is that this is not just the criminal strip guns. kidding. it's not just the exit and from the streets. it's about the car accident. it's something really big and it the need of the big per person to, to know that act like list. so then you can stipulate on the, on possible involvement of permanent or possible employment of a very high level, political or whatever security services, whatever. but the state of the russian production information system is that time that we kind of discharge on anything the yeah,

come kind of coming back to why no international investigation, what would be the international thought of that investigation about the plane that crashed was made in brazil it's embrace, so it belongs to the boeing white, a boeing family of a factory. so usually if you have flight x accident with a plane, you'll have a international flight investigate test taking part of the investigation to determine future safety and flight safety risks for this type of aircraft. which because if you have, for example, if you remember these pointing 737 accidents that happened in asia as, as you was a boring experts, you had an american express, you had, i say, experts there now and nothing happens like, god, that means, okay, so this is something else, and the russian states has something to hide from them. of course we don't know

what it has to hide and what he wants to hide, but we can say, but it's a hint that has the face of the same time. that was a domestic slide for almost cool doesn't fit is broken in terms of domestic slice, the real interesting good domestic slides on the domestic investigations coming to you. so no, no need to involve them resilience or, and then council about hour and international forces on this, on this accident. so once again, shrouding things in uncertainty and let me ask you good stuff about what this means for the rodney group itself because it wasn't only precaution on that plane. in fact, it was a number of the top leaders of the group. is there anything left of wagner is command structure and where is dr with out because she brought him here has said he's gone whether he's dead or not. he's gone from the scene and he was a larger than life figure. can wagner go on without him? as a well, wagner star wars descending for some time even before gosh and stuff. so his media

enterprise has already been dismantled. he are being pushed out in active operations in ukraine by, by may basically. alrighty. and so he, he full 3 gods action to preserve as much from his empire as us as the court. now, the fate of these people in belarus, the former fight. this is a no dial satellite images that just says that a lot of people have left hope you're doing that well, probably to private life. how many, how many from the there in the 1st place is, is another guess? um uh, the international operations roughly continue um and this is of course they are in the interest of the criminal sort of criminal try to maintain their operations, enough for a kind let in america's cetera. bought this thing is of course, and we saw that in the rush off because somebody pretty guardian was allowed to

access international lead as his, i mean, precaution was not a military leader. he was the salesman of the, of the company in the front mine form for the whole show. and the part of these contracts and relationship with these machines are rested on his career small. i don't know how all relations will continue. i guess some of these regimes, they will need russian assistance whether they come from precaution or for someone else. um for maintaining getting machines bought of course, um sort of the one of the north in the, in the relationships and with these relationships easy is about personal relationship and trust and knowledge of each other is gone. but yeah, well let's take a closer look at those points and where things go from here for a mercenary force that was known for its brutality and its international h. the blue jays of flowers for precaution. and a lot of speculation about the future of wagner is army. the russian army could

take control of the mercenaries, or they could transfer the soldiers to another pair of military unit like reduced or co talk. or the unit could be allowed to continue as they are under the leadership of a new leader loyal to the kremlin report say that pollutants favors wagner is founder andre treasurer of who did not participate in the to, to you serve him 2 days after per goes and private jack crashed, who issued a decree that mercenaries must take an oath of allegiance to the russian state, just like soldiers. clearly he wants to keep depending on private armies, whether they are dispatched to africa or ukraine, who is also the store and even more power. i'm long time loyalist general victor solid task head of the national guard which is founded in 2016. he will get new weapons like tanks and other equipment in addition to the regular state army, there's now a domestic army that the russian president can depend on,

the russian security forces and mercenaries is everything under control. let me put that question straight to explain. yeah. is everything under control the top to say again, but i think very much so i think that they are trying to now discuss those resources. and i think at some point as you've shots a pretty gordon became a loose cannon. very hard to control. and now i think they are relying more on other military groups with small law resources by far smaller resources that was strange that involved not ever was. and those resources of capers asked including media resources, the tools factory. they are going to find new hands. we're not quite sure which hands some of the results. so some of his assets are going to stay within the family. the business resources are relating to his capturing business and i'm going to save sky department stores and paid his book to collect his name that also

occasionally belongs to his his wife or something. um, but i think it in terms of the military assets um, some of the people are going to beacons, purposes where the defense ministry are. those will leave because a lot of the regular, i mean the false place for a reason. so they might won't be likely to return to regular army. there's also a question of who's going to pay them because most of his motion words were paid in cash. actually, the, the wagner veterans sold to say, describe the actual trucks with money, cash, and backs with the limits to the bases and distribute sites. what's going on 2 baths now. you know, it's also a question related to his man and bill, original question, because i'm going to pay them. let's come back in a moment to where the money is. but let me ask of adding me a 1st about this attempt to now to get mercenaries and private armies to swear allegiance which we just heard about. the plane crash, the cube precaution, came almost exactly 2 months after his wagner groups brief mutiny. that in part was

about precisely this issue. putting, had demanded that the mercenaries then swore to swear legions. and wagner basically didn't want to do that. is it any more likely to succeed? this attempt to integrate them into the normal defense for says now is, and it did then it grew is missing, didn't but the to be completely different story of this private, the army wagner being made the state own company because of buckner in progressing business and far as a trophy break was found that the kind of private service from the state privates states isn't select blake, what they are in the image and narrative states was it was a parade up in the rock during the war. so they were able to those things which states agencies the state structure, so i'm not able to do, i'm not allowed to do. so. it was a very important difference point between wagner on precautions. business on state finance by state state sponsored, but not the officer and being part of the russian state. and now being transformed

to the part of the rest of the state a, the army states army trust sector on structure of some security services. but the deal with national and national does either the state or not. so we'll see how good or how well it will be this transformation of the work and how the whole business of bring was 12. i break is a very good thing because next year we have a residential presidential election in the united states or us and we will be willing to help someone to win this election again. and it's a crucial point as well because it's extremely important for us and operation in the okay, we'll be open the next presenter to united states. so just keep in mind this part of the business of promotions, most important that external outreach business environment was just talking about is sometimes called a expeditionary foreign policy, a good stuff. it's essentially uh, a private arm that can do cobra activities in the interest of the state. and in this case, clearly in africa and in syria,

those interests were designed to both to extend russian influence, but also to counter u. s. influence. so where does that go now? is that going to be taken over by the state itself? we have seen putting, trying to court african liter is at the summit that he held with them in july. on the other hand of some of them seemed to have felt a very close tie to precaution himself. how did, how do you see that developing wagner was not so fond detached from the state. uh, as you already mentioned, it operated as kind of a fig leaf for an estate. and i say regarding or id wasn't gauged in troll farms long before wagner came around. so he had this kind of outsourcing business. he was already there. now the military operations to serve you can use deputy, also killed in a crash. he was in 20122013. he wasn't serious trying to boost um

the sort of training for the syrian army for us, how it's received. it even go very well. it, it, it was, he was, he was a general office so, so the military intelligence service that during the cold war, always did this kind of permissions cooperation, meaning through training for allied forces in for soviet allies and communities, proxies all across the world. training of revolutionaries to, to stage cruise. all that stuff was, was always done um, by uh, uh, by the general. um, so they basically came back and said, okay, it is not going as well as we intend that. so let's, let's find some other way to finance and to, to put trade is there was a huge media attention on what was going on is here at the time, fulton was not really sure whether he should intervene on the south side. he didn't want to pitch him, but there was sort of the us red lines of okay, well, bama never least up to them. but now we know that obama never lived up to them back

then us red lines by taking bloody seriously and so or whatnot. and sort of combining, but it's the, the sales guy, pretty grossing the, the kind of mafia, money loan. they're all pretty gosh. and, and that's why he's called putting shift that's known as examples. the money laundering for doing a lot of other things with the monetary originally putting this cook. yeah, yeah. he had a catering enterprise, but that is so that's like cold calling the commodity pizza delivery. so yes, that was the due process, but also um, uh, sort of to combine these 2 and say, okay, you're the head of this company. and here are 0, g, a real guys. and now let's combine this and, and send them to see written lens. we send them to ukraine on a scale, it works. i mean, for pretty well. the problem, of course, has done sort of pedagogy and got uh over confidence in his business. but, but this was the reason i know. i think they want to go back to that route to have

close ties between intelligence, russian foreign policy and the kind of steel brass plate cover for that. if i may, my impression is the dress, it doesn't keep bugging. there anymore is that, is it kind of company to hide behind this because the russian state is not in a new stage of development russians. they came to open what they were, it likes dealt with and you had me the behind thing and private companies became throw off a break because because it was for a very long time denying that she was ordered up to $1200.00 or off north of our bargaining groups and until recently a couple of months ago, it came up, come out with this huge a notice made the keys on the roof argument. so our report said that it appears that the russian state would none the less continue to rely in future on private armies. do you think that's true? seen. yeah. and if it is true, have those who lead these private are armies and there are a number of different ones out there. have they gotten the message from precaution

stuff that it would be advantageous to them not to act like rivals as a much as they might have gotten this mass, which i guess this was possibly intention as well. um, as for the other uh, private military companies, as i've mentioned, the less well trained, less equipped um they have few uh, financial resources obviously. we know for example, rebuilt. i think it's the biggest of them all associated with the pasco and seem to include it's actually again, not quite clear who has the upper hand. they are. is it possible attention call have a role to play and see. they are protecting self and forced faith resources rush that was, came on protecting and see their but, but they have 7000 main. it's by, they don't have this opportunity to recruit from pino, count colon, a so web to golden date. so in terms of that military expertise in terms of their resources and you know, actually also the media clouds. they are less than this country, but i guess we're going to see the right lot around for

a private companies various capacities authorizing now some of them have already signed contracts for the defense ministry, but i mean, they cannot be competitive in terms of the original scope and strength with bulk now. so let's look beyond the fate of wagner itself and return to the question of where precautions deaf leaves vladimir putin. targeted killings have been no rarity under footings rule, but it's the report which they no longer reinforce his dominance to alexander lips . and go used to be a g, g b officer at lake vladimir putin glitter, he worked for britain and my 6 can accuse the kremlin ruler of orchestrating the assassination of journalist on a political sky. a litwin and go died in exile in london in 2006. and the british judge ruled that 2 russians had spiked. his t with radioactive polonium at hooton's orders, sergey square call is a former double agent in 2018. he was almost murdered by

a nerve agent known as nava chalk, and salisbury u. k. narrowly surviving london believes that clinton was the mastermind of this attack as well. what about your guinea precaution? he was long considered to be boot and strong man, especially in ukraine. but in june, he spent his mercenaries to moscow and then attempted to that made the president look weak up to what we're experiencing is trees in the predictions exactly 2 months later, if jenny precaution is dead, according to official reports, he died in a plane crash between moscow and saint petersburg, the kremlin, called accusations of its involvement, an absolute lie. can you expect more betrayals in the future? and let me put that question to you. uh, good stuff. you mentioned camara and there is a mafia. esc quality, certainly to these targeted murders. they're designed to signal dominance as with

the mafia, but could it backfire? i think on the short term, not on the long term hunters. for, for now putting uh has consolidated his power. you see that, for example, in inquiry on the russian armies, again, going on the defensive, despite numerous journal of generals saying that, well, actually we should go on the defense. we need the resources that are wasted in this of ends for funding. also do your training come to offensive cetera, but it's the president who wants to have an offensive, especially against a sort of pushing for the, from around school blast and, and, and going to slowly and coming towards from the north. this is the old actually is that repeat more plan of what's happened last year. so you can see that, that within your own forces resistance against the president, the guns think it was the flight of plans that actually did on victor mental to the

war effort from, from the russian point of view. and there is no position anymore. so. so putting on the short term on the tax, it was time has one. on the other hand, the war is far from over yet. and the more fulton imprints, who sort of his personal orders imprint themselves negatively on the war effort. or the more he runs the risk that each might backfire thoughts. this is brother a long term thing. here. let me ask you to weigh in on the consequences going forward, both for the war and ukraine and also in russia domestically. we do have elections coming up in 2024. the kremlin spokesman recently said the actually not necessary because sure the vladimir put in will be re elected. but does he need a positive turn in ukraine for that to happen? and will it occur if the wagner group is no longer playing the role it has? i'm pretty sure what the real creates some kind of positive turns into their claim before the election as a kind of public public relations. this style not stunned. as we know of them for,

for sure, i agree with you with this long term long term. no one knows, but the short term is quite quite stable. that is to send somebody that petition because neither of these private companies privately that the companies have such a hurry. so could as much succeed or on, on the, on the subject. his mind to, to, to go with such a political ambitions. because acute precautions developed quite strong political methods and there isn't weeks and months even before the poached before this whole think 2 months ago. so really to no one knows that political message saying, yeah, some of the russian citizens who have been congregating around impromptu memorials that have sprung up in moscow near the kremlin, but also elsewhere seem to feel, seem to still embrace precautions view that russia is not on the right track in ukraine and whether they are anti war or somehow pre, goshen,

hardliners, they seem to be quite dissatisfied how. what do you know about public opinion? very little. i think that's also logical. solve as i'm barely reliable. and actually i'm a bit confused about the public reaction to, to hear staff because of the i've read a lot of reports and done sort political field studies done exactly at the side of those and from 2 memorials. and some people are very unhappy about the course of the will of the stick to the official line. and i guess they will feel a bit open to 5 to gordon's demise because can you create that? that some glimpse of identity. it pulls it 5 density full, fox and rods, especially those conscripts and more of a loss from presence of heroes. notice traders notice come of the oars, but the social for respectable citizen from the miss this sense of the loading provided. but that's just diffract mental population. in other words, not a threat to pretend script that supports i think the rest of the se unimpressed is

very sort of immune to any strong feelings and reactions to whatever happens poisonings. notice plain shots and they open a paper on and process profoundly. thank you very much to all of you for being with us today. and thanks to all of our viewers for to and again, check out our website, tell us what you think the

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