the discovery stories that just to take away the journey. the destination right signs. this document. trees. subscribe. now. second name, treat it protects allies. a nemesis shift. any precaution has been laid to rest is wagner groups brief. nobody opened a troubling chapter that the kremlin wants to close. but our wagner is mercenaries ready to swear allegiance to the russian state and be absorbed by it. what fate lies in store for this huge horse that has intervened and conflicts from africa to ukraine? consignment, portent when the over ordinary citizens who share precautions view that rushes on

the wrong track. and how much pressure is russia under us? the ukraine more drags on. today we're asking how secure is put in script on power . after the death of wagner, chief precaution, the hello and welcome to to the point. it is a pleasure to greet our guest, beginning with good stuff, chris. so who is the security and defense expert and senior policy fellow at the european council on foreign relations? and my esteemed colleague, finding municipal off works on dw, is russian desk. and it's a pleasure to welcome send, a cream. uh, she's a historian and visiting research fellow at this easy f center for contemporary history and fun stuff. and then yes, let's start with the enroll itself. it was quite

a low key affair. it was shrouded in secrecy during the trial and would very much like to turn the page document. 14, of course, stayed away from the funeral. will it succeed now in making a higher status? i think so. i think so it's very much and i'm living into play and i think the way the funeral was strange to orchestrate, to it as a perfect mouth to follow what's going on. because what's going on to gordon were both heroes of russia, and i'll expect to the, according to the protocol to the given state pin, arose with all the pomp and circumstance. but none of that happened to where speculation is about how and where and when it's going to take place. the funeral itself, i think the press was not allowed and we have occasional pictures of the widow and the daughter of course conspiracy theories of proliferate side, whether it's actual, pre gordon, who is buried. there may be his, you know, missing somewhere and hiding somewhere like, you know, kind of bowl laptop i expect saying about the times. and actually,

i think pictures from the tools that we have a very telling stories, this very sort of a picture of the main crowns or 5 point by joseph brooks, k and the golden frame resembling about of an icon. and we're actually the pictures that's all right. they celebrate the goals and as a motto with a slash online hans, which is also also a different topic. but now this picture is full of the plans. it's one of the joseph brots case. christian points about mary coming to the cross and confronting the photo jesus asking whether he's a son of god, whether he's alive or dead. and i think that's also a hint of the public confusion as to what the actual frequent was and has been informed. cent varies on whether his life. so whether we, let's talk about that confusion, russian investigators have now confirmed that precautions been killed. they did dna and now if says supposedly and russia is not planning to take part in any

international investigation of the plane crash that killed pre goes. and often such an investigation is customary, but rest apparently has said it's not going to take part. so how much do we really know for sure, how sure can we be? that precaution truly is dead as that protein was involved in the crash? well, there's a book describing cross and that attitude, but actually modern gravity or, or ask them to take advantage of the book because of the title. nothing comes through and everything is possible. you know, this book is the best line describe the, the kind of state of mind of our people and our board public dealing with news from russia because everything kind of puts an adult and you adopted basically every news that they would and every single single word from russian for us, precaution is gone. she's not anymore here. no, thank you. sure. everything is possible. it's possible just in terms of proteins

own involvement of the kremlin and the states involvement in the crash. essentially nothing happens in russia with out putins complicity. isn't that the case? that's what joseph biden said recently, and there are some, i mean, so you need someone very high level and involved on such kind of airplane progress, the able to, to, to shut down or it was a bump on board. the don't know it for so it will probably not even know if more but the point is that this is not just the criminal strip guns. kidding. it's not just the exit and from the streets. it's about the car accident. it's something really big and i needed to make preparations to, to know that act like list. so then you can speculate on the, on possible involvement of criminal or possible employment or for a very high level, political or whatever security services, whatever. but the state of the russian production information system is

that time that we kind of discharge on anything the yeah, come kind of coming back to why no international investigation, what would be the international part of that investigation about the plane that crashed was made in brazil, it's embrace, so it belongs to the boeing white, a boeing family of factors. so usually if you have flight x accident with a plane, you'll have a in the international flight investigate as taking part of the investigation to determine future safety and flight safety risks for this type of aircraft. which because if you have, for example, if you remember these pointing 737 accidents that happened in asia as, as you was a boring experts, you had an american express. you had, i say experts there now and nothing happens like, god, that means, okay, so this is something else and the russian states has something to hide from them.

of course, we don't know what it has to hide and what he wants to hide, but we can say, but it's a hint that has to stay for the same time. that was a domestic slide for almost cool doesn't fit. it's broken in terms of domestic slides, they really investigate domestic flights on with the domestic investigations coming to you. so no, no need to involve them resilience or in their it comes about our international forces on this, on this accident. so once again, shrouding things in uncertainty and let me ask you good stuff about what this means for the rodney group itself because it wasn't only precaution on that plane. in fact, it was a number of the top leaders of the group. is there anything left of wagner is command structure and where is so i've never without because she brought him here has said he's gone whether his dad or not. he's gone from the scene and he was a larger than life figure. can wagner go on without him as

a well wagner style wars descending for some time, even before precautions? death. so his media enterprise has already been dismantled. he has been pushed out in active operations in ukraine by, by may basically already. um and so he, he full 3 guys action to preserve as much from his empire as us as the court. now uh, the fate of these people in belarus, the former fight. this is a no dial satellite images that just says that a lot of people have left, but we don't know where probably to private life. how many, how many from the there in the 1st place is, is another guess. um uh, the international operations roughly continue um and this is of course they are in the interest of the criminal sort of criminal try to maintain their operations enough for a kind let in america cetera. bought this thing is of course,

and we saw that in the rush off because some of the pretty guardian was allowed to access international lead. as his, i mean, precaution was not a military leader. he was the salesman, of all the of the company in the front mine form for the whole show on the part of these contracts and relationship with these machines are risk that don't, he's crease not. i don't know how all relations will continue. i guess some of these regimes still need russian assistance, whether they come from concussion or for someone else. um, 2 days after per goes and private jet crashed, who issued a decree that mercenaries must take an oath of allegiance to the russian state. just like soldiers. clearly he wants to keep depending on private armies, whether they're dispatched to africa or ukraine, who is also bestowing even more power on long term loyalist in general. victor solid task head of the national guard which is founded in 2016. he will get new weapons like tanks and other equipment in addition to the regular state army,

there's now a domestic army that the russian president can depend on, the russian security forces and mercenaries is everything under control. let me put that question straight to explain. yeah. is everything under control the top to say again, but i think very much so i think that they are trying to now discuss those resources. and i think at some point as you've solved a pretty gordon became a lose cannon. very hard to control. and now i think they are relying on other military grapes with small a lot of resources by foss molar resources. that was strange that involved not ever was. and those resources of capers asked including media resources, the tools factory. they are going to find new hands. we're not quite sure which hands some of the resources. some of these assets are going to stay within the family. the business resources are relating to his capturing business and i'm going

to save sky department stores and paid his book to collect museum that also occasionally belongs to his his wife or something. um, but i think it in terms of the military assets um, some of the people are going to beacons, purposes where the defense ministry are. those will leave because the left of the regular army in the 1st place for a reason. so they might won't be likely to reach onto the regular army. there's also a question of who's going to pay them because most of his emotional needs were paid in cash. actually, the, the wagner veterans sold to say, describe the actual trucks with money, cash and backs with the limits to them, bases and distribute types. what's going on 2 baths now. you know, it's also a question related to his man and bill, original location because i'm going to pay them. let's come back in a moment to where the money is. but let me ask of adding me a 1st about this attempt to now to get mercenaries and private armies to swear allegiance which we just heard about. the plane crash, the cube precaution,

came almost exactly 2 months after his wagner groups brief mutiny. that in part was about precisely this issue. putting, had demanded that the mercenaries then swore swear legions. and wagner basically didn't want to do that. is it any more likely to succeed this attempt to integrate them into the normal defense for is now is and it did then it grew is missing, didn't but the to be completely different story of this private, the army wagner. been ready to state on company because back now in pretty close and business and far as a trophy. but it was found that there's the kind of private service from the state . privates states isn't select blake. what they are in the image. united states was it was a parade up in that rock during the war. so they were able to those things which states agencies the state structure. so i'm not able to do, i'm not allowed to do. so it was a very important difference point between wagner on precautions. business on state finance, by state state sponsored,

but not office of and being part of the russian state. and now being transformed to the part of the rest of the state, the army states army trust sector on structure of some security service. but the deal with national and national does either the state on that. so we'll see how good or how well it will be. this transform ation. i'm going to work in how the whole business of bring was 12. i break is a very good thing because next year we have a residential presidential election in the united states or us and we'll be willing to help someone to win this election the game. and it's a crucial point as well because it's extremely important for us and operation in the okay, we'll be open the next presented to united states. so just keep in mind this part of the business of proposals, notes important that external outreach, business environment was just talking about is sometimes called a expeditionary foreign policy, a go stuff. it's essentially uh, a private arm that can do covert activities in the interest of the state. and in

this case, clearly in africa and in syria, those interests were designed to both to extend russian influence, but also to counter u. s. influence. so where does that go now? is that going to be taken over by the state itself? we have seen put in trying to court african liter is at the summit that he held with them in july. on the other hand of some of them seemed to have felt a very close tie to precaution himself. how did, how do you see that developing wagner was not so fond detached from the state. uh, as you already mentioned, it operated as kind of a fig leaf for an estate. and um, so regarding or id wasn't gauged in troll farms long before wagner came around. so he had this kind of outsourcing business. he was already there. now the military operations to serve you can use deputy, also killed in

a crash. he was in 20122013. he was in syria trying to boost the sort of training for the syrian army for us. how it's received. it even go very well. it, it, it was, he was, he was a general office so, so the military intelligence service that during the cold war, always the, this kind of permissions cooperation, military training for allied forces in for soviet allies and communities, proxies all across the world. training of revolutionaries to, to stage cruise. all that stuff was, was always done um, by uh, uh, by the 2 year old. um, so they basically came back and said, okay, it is not going as well as we intended. so let's, let's find some other way to finance and to, to put trade is there was a huge media attention on what was going on is here at the time, fulton was not really sure whether he should intervene on the south side. he didn't want to pitch him, but there was sort of the us red lines of okay,

well bama never lift up to them, but now we know that obama never lived up to them back then us red lines by taking bloody seriously. and so to walk. now and sort of combining, but it's the sales guy, pretty grossing the, the kind of mafia, money loan. they're all pretty goshen. and that's what he's called putting shift that's known as examples. the money laundering for doing a lot of other things with the monetary originally putting this cook. yeah, yeah. he had a catering enterprise, but that is so that's like cold calling the commodity pizza delivery. so yes, that was the due process, but also um, uh, sort of to combine these 2 and say, okay, you're the head of this company and here are 0, g, a real guys. and now let's combine this and send them to see written lens. we send them to ukraine on a scale, it works. i mean, for pretty well. the problem, of course, has done sort of pedagogy and got over confidence in his business, but,

but this was the ration. and now i think they want to go back to that route to have close ties between intelligence, russian foreign policy and the kind of steel brass plate cover for that. if i may, my impression is the dress, it doesn't keep bugging. there anymore is it, is it kind of company to hide behind this because the russian state is not in a new stage of development russians. they've came to open what they were like without any fighting the behind thing in private. the companies that kind of drove a break because because it was for very long time denying that she was ordered up to the 12th of breaks or opened the back in the groups. and until recently, up to a couple of months ago, it came up, come out with this huge acknowledgement that the keys on the real popular. so our report said that it appears that the russian state would none the less continue to rely in future on private armies. do you think that's true? seen yeah, and if it is true, have those who lead these private are armies and there are

a number of different ones out there. have they gotten the message from precaution stuff that it would be advantageous to them not to act like rivals as a much as they might have gotten this mass, which i guess this was possibly intention as well. um, as for the other uh, private military companies, as i've mentioned the last, well trains less equipped um they have a view of financial resources. obviously, we know for example, rebuilt. i think it's the biggest of them all associated with the pass code and seem to incur it's actually again, not quite clear who has the upper hand. they are. is it possible attention call have a role to play and syria protecting self and forced faith resources. rush that was came on for texting and see there, but, but they have 7000 men. it's by, they don't have this opportunity to recruit from pino, count colon a so web to gordon date. so in terms of the military expertise in terms of their resources and, you know, actually also the media clouds, they are less than,

i'm just going to put, i guess we're going to see the right lot around for a private companies in various capacities authorizing now some of them have already signed contracts for the defense ministry, but i mean, they cannot be competitive in terms of the original scope and strength with bulk. now. so let's look beyond the fate of wagner itself and return to the question of where precautions death via vladimir putin. targeted killings have been no rarity under footings rule, but is the report which they no longer reinforce his dominance. alexander licks and then go used to be a g, g b officer at lakeside, him, you're putting glitter at you worked for britain, and my 6 can accuse the kremlin ruler of orchestrating the assassination of journalists on a political sky, a litwin and go died in exile in london in 2006 and the british judge ruled that 2 russians had spiked his team with radioactive polonium at pollutants orders.

sergey script paul is a former double agent in 2018. he was almost murdered by a nerve agent known as nava chalk, and salisbury, u. k, narrowly surviving london believes that put in was the mastermind of this attack as well. what about you have any precaution to as long considered to be put in strong man, especially in ukraine, but in june, he spent his mercenaries to moscow and then attempted to that meet the president. look week after what weird marian thing is. treason and the feedback is exactly 2 months later if jenny precaution is dead, according to official reports, he died in a plane crash between moscow and saint petersburg. the kremlin calls accusations of its involvement in absolute life can expect more betrayals in the future. let me put that question to you. uh, good stuff. you mentioned camara and there is

a mafia. esc quality certainly uh, to these targeted murders, they're designed to signal dominance as with the mafia. but could it backfire? i think on the short term, not on the long term hunters for, for now putting uh, has consolidated uh his power. you see that, for example, in inquiry on the russian armies, again, going on the defensive, despite numerous general general's saying that, well actually we should go on the defense. we need the resources that are wasted into so for ends for funding of the training come to offensive cetera. but it's the president who wants to have an offensive, especially against a sort of pushing for the, from around school blast and, and, and going to slowly and coming towards from the north. this is the old actually is a repeat more plan of what's happened last year. so you can see that, that within your own forces resistance against the president,

the guns think it was a flight of plans that actually the big for mental to the war effort from, from the russian point of view. there is no precision anymore. so, so putting on the short term on the tax, it was time has one on the other hand, the war is far from over yet. and the more voting imprints who sort of his personal orders imprint themselves negatively on the war effort. or the more he runs the risk that each might backfire thoughts. this is brother a long term thing. here. let me ask you to weigh in on the consequences going forward, both for the war and ukraine and also in russia domestically. we do have elections coming up in 2024. the kremlin spokesman recently said the actually not necessary because sure the vladimir put in will be re elected. but does he need a positive turn in ukraine for that to happen? and will it occur if the wagner group is no longer playing the role it has?

i'm pretty sure what the real creates some kind of for the discharge, and they're crying before the election as a kind of public public relations is strong. understand it's. it's been over them for, for sure. i agree with you with this long term. long term. no one knows, but the short term is quite, quite stable. that is to some somebody that petition because neither of these private companies, private companies have such a hurry. so could as much as you are on, on the, on the subject of his mind to, to, to go with such a political ambitions because acute precaution development, quite strong political methods. and there isn't weeks and months even before the 4th, before this whole, think 2 months ago. so, um, really to no one knows that political message saying, yeah, some of the russian citizens who have been congregating around impromptu memorials that have sprung up in moscow near the kremlin, but also elsewhere seem to feel, seem to still embrace precautions view that russia is not on the right track in

ukraine and whether they are anti war or somehow pre, goshen, hardliners, they seem to be quite dissatisfied how. what do you know about public opinion? very little. i think that's also a logical solve is, i'm barely reliable. and actually i'm a bit confused about the public reaction to, to hear staff because of the i've read a lot of reports and done sort political field studies done exactly at the side of those and from 2 memorials. and some people are very unhappy about the course of the will of the sticks to the official line. and i guess they will feel a bit open to 5 to gordon's demise. because can you create that, that sampling till 5 density? it pulls it 5 density full, wagner rods, especially those conscripts of all the loss from presence of heroes. notice traders notice come of the earth, but the social for spectacle citizen from the miss this sense of the loading provided, but that's just diffract mental relation. in other words, not

a threat to pretend script that supports i think the rest of the se unimpressed is very sort of of immune to any strong feelings and reactions to whatever happens poisonings. notice plain shots and they open a paper on and process profoundly. thank you. very much to all of you for being with us today. and thanks to all of our viewers for to and again, check out our website, tell us what you think the

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