on the round the road more than 100 especially seeking rest, we should have to write him to pretends allies and nemesis shift. any precaution has been laid to rest is wagner groups brief. nobody opened a troubling chapter that the kremlin wants to close. but our wagner is mercenaries ready to swear allegiance to the russian state and be absorbed by it. what fate lies in store for this? a huge horse that has intervened and conflicts from africa to ukraine. consignment, portent when the over ordinary citizens who share precautions. view that process on the wrong track. and how much pressure is restaurant under as the ukraine more

drags on. today we're asking how secure is put in script on power. after the death of wagner, chief precaution, the hello and welcome to the point. it is a pleasure to greet our guest, beginning with good stuff, chris. so who is the security and defense expert and senior policy fellow at the european council on foreign relations? and my esteemed colleague, finding municipal off works on dw, is russian desk. and it's a pleasure to welcome send a claim. uh, she's a historian and visiting research fellow at this easy f center for contemporary history and fun stuff. and then yes, let's start with the funeral itself. it was quite a low key affair. it was shrouded in secrecy. see, sorry,

mcclellan would very much like to turn the page document. 14, of course, stayed away from the funeral. will it succeed now in making a higher status? i think so. i think so it's very much and i'm living into play and i think the way the funeral was strange to orchestrate, to it as a perfect mouth to follow what's going on. because what's going on to gordon were both heroes of russia, and i'll expect to the, according to the protocol to the given state pin, arose with all the pomp and circumstance. but none of that happened to where speculation is about how and where and when it's going to take place. the funeral itself, i think the press was not allowed and we have occasional pictures of the widow and the daughter of course conspiracy theories of proliferate side, whether it's actual, pre gordon, who is buried. there may be his, you know, missing somewhere and hiding somewhere like, you know, kind of bowl laptop i expect saying about the times. and actually, i think pictures from the tools that we have a very telling stories,

this very sort of a picture of the main crowns or 5 point by joseph brooks, k and the golden frame resembling about of an icon. and are actually the pictures. that's all right, they celebrate the big ocean as a motto with a slash online hans, which is also also a different topic. but now this picture is full of from the balance. it's one of the joseph brots case. christian points about mary coming to the cross and confronting the border of jesus asking whether he's a son of god, whether he's alive or dead. and i think that's also a hint of the public confusion as to what the actual frequent was and has been informed. cent berries on whether his life. so whether we, let's talk about that confusion russian investigators have now confirmed that precautions been killed. they did dna analysis supposedly, and russia is not planning to take part in any international investigation of the

plane crash that killed pre goes. and often such an investigation is customary, but rest apparently has said it's not going to take part. so how much do we really know for sure, how sure can we be that precaution truly is dead as that protein was involved in the crash? well, there's a book describing cross and that attitude, but actually modern gravity or, or ask them to take advantage of the book because of the title. nothing comes through and everything is possible. you know, this book is the best line describe the, the kind of state of mind of our people and our board public. do you think we can use from russell because everything kind of puts an adult and you adopted basically every news that they would and every single single word from russian for yes, precaution is gone. she's not anymore here. no, thank you. sure everything is possible. it's possible just in terms of proteins own

involvement or the kremlin the states involvement in the crash. essentially nothing happens in russia with out putins complicity. isn't that the case? that's what joseph biden said recently, and because there are some, i mean, so you need someone very high level and involved on such kinds of airplane progress, the able to, to, to shut down or it was a bump on board. i don't know. i personally will probably not even know if more but the point is that this is not just the criminal strip guns. kidding. it's not just that accident on the streets. it's not the car accident. it's something really big entity need that the big preparation to, to know that act like this. so then you can stipulate on the, on possible involvement of criminal or possible employment or for a very high level, political or whatever security services, whatever. but the state of the russian production information system is that time that we kind of discharge on anything the yeah,

come kind of coming back to why no international investigation, what would be the international part of that investigation about the plane that crashed was made in brazil, it's embrace, so it belongs to the boeing white, a boeing family of factories. so usually if you have flight x accident with a plane, you'll have a in the international flight investigate as taking part of the investigation to determine future safety and flight safety risks for this type of aircraft. which because if you have, for example, if you remember these pointing 737 accidents that happened in asia as, as you was a boring experts, you had an american express. you had, i say, experts there now and nothing happens like, god, that means ok. so this is something else and the russian states has something to hide from them. of course we don't know what it has to hide and what he wants to hi,

but we can say, but it's a hint that has the face of the same time. it was a domestic fight for almost cool doesn't put his broken thing in terms of domestic flies. they really investigate domestic flights on with the domestic investigations coming to you. so no, no need to involve them resilience or in their it comes about an hour in an international forces on this, on this accident. so once again, shrouding things in uncertainty and let me ask you good stuff about what this means for the rodney group itself. because it wasn't only precaution on that plane. in fact, it was a number of the top leaders of the group. is there anything left of wagner is command structure and where is so i've never without because she got him here has said he's gone whether he's dead or not. he's gone from the scene and he was a larger than life figure. can wagner go on without him as a well, wagner star wars descending for some time, even before precautions. death. so he's media enterprise of already being

dismantled. he has been pushed out in active operations in ukraine by, by may basically. alrighty. and so he, he full 3 gods action to preserve as much from his empire as us as the court. now, the fate of these people in belarus, the former fight. this is a no dial satellite images that just says that a lot of people have left hope you're doing it. where probably to private life many how many from the there in the 1st place is, is another guess. um uh the international operations roughly continue um and this is of course they are in the interest of the criminal sort of criminal try to maintain their operations enough for a kind let in america's tetra bought this thing is of course and we saw that in the rush off because somebody at the pretty garden was allowed to access international

leaders. he's, i mean, pretty goshen was not a military leader. he was the salesman, of all the of the company in the front month for, for the whole show. and the part of these contracts and relationship with these machines are rested on who's charisse month. i don't know how all relations will continue. i guess some of these regimes still need russian assistance, whether they come from concussion or for someone else. um for maintaining getting machines bought of course, um sort of the one of the north in the, in the relationships and with these relationships easy is about personal relationship and trust and knowledge of each other is gone. but yeah, well let's take a closer look at those points and where things go from here for a mercenary force that was known for its brutality and its international beach. the blue jays of flowers for precaution, and a lot of speculation about the future of wagner's army. the russian army could take

control of the mercenaries, or they could transfer the soldiers to another pair of military unit like reduced or co talk. or the unit could be allowed to continue as they are under the leadership of a new liter, loyal to the kremlin. reports say that pollutants favors wagner is founder andre treasurer of who did not participate in the to do you serve him 2 days after per goes and private jet crashed, who issued a decree that mercenaries must take an oath of allegiance to the russian state. just like soldiers. clearly he wants to keep depending on private armies, whether they're dispatched to africa or ukraine, who is also bestowing even more power. i'm long time, willis, general victor solid task head of the national guard, which was founded in 2016. he will get new weapons like tanks and other equipment in addition to the regular state army, there's now a domestic army that the russian president can depend on,

the russian security forces and mercenaries is everything under control. so let me put that question straight to explain. yeah, is everything under control? it's tough to say again, but i think very much so i think that they are trying to now discuss those resources. and i think at some point as you've shopped a pretty gordon became a lose cannon. very hard to control. and now i think they are relying more on other military grapes with small allow resources by far smaller resources that was strange that involved not ever was. and those resources of capers asked including media resources, the tools factory. they are going to find new hands. we're not quite sure which hands some of the results as some of these assets are going to stay within the family. the business resources are relating to his capturing business and give safety department stores from petersburg to collect these a him that also occasionally belongs to his his wife or something. um,

but i think in terms of the military assets, um, some of the people are going to beacons, purposes where the defense ministry are. those will leave because the left of the regular army in the 1st place for reasons. so they might won't be likely to return to regular army. there's also a question of who's going to pay them because most of his motion was where paid them cash. actually the, the voc now veterans sold to say describe the actual trucks with money, cash and box with the limits to them, bases and distribute sites. what's going on to that now? you know, it's also a question related to his man and bill, original question, cuz i'm going to pay them. let's come back in a moment to where the money is. but let me ask of adding me a 1st about this attempt to now to get mercenaries and private armies to swear allegiance which we just heard about. the plane crash, the cube precaution, came almost exactly 2 months after his wagner groups brief mutiny. that in part was

about precisely this issue. putting had demanded that the mercenaries then swore swear legions, and buckner basically didn't want to do that. is it any more likely to succeed this attempt to integrate them into the normal defense for is now, isn't it did then it grew is missing, but the to be completely different. story of this private army wagner being made the state own company because back in our, in for goes and business and part is a throw corporate. it was found that there's the kind of private service from the state, private states. agents like blake, what they are in the image united states was it was a parade up in that rock during the war. so they were able to those things which states agencies the state structure. so i'm not able to do. i'm not allowed to do so it was a very important difference point between wagner on precautions. business on state findings by state state sponsored, but not the officer and being part of the russian state. and now being transformed

to the part of the rest of the state. the army states army trust sector on structure of some security services, but the national national does either the state or not. so we'll see how good or how well it will be this transform ation of the work and how the whole business of bring was 12. a break is a very good thing. because next year we have a residential presidential election in the united states or us and we will be willing to help someone to win the selection again. and it's a crucial point as well because it's extremely important for us and operation in the okay. and who will be in the next presented to united states. so just keep in mind this part of the business of promotions, most important that external outreach business environment was just talking about is sometimes called a expeditionary foreign policy of good stuff. it's essentially uh, a private arm that can do cobra to activities in the interest of the state. and in this case, clearly in africa and in syria,

those interests were designed both to extend russian influence, but also to counter u. s. influence. so where does that go now? is that going to be taken over by the state itself? we have seen, put in trying to court. african leaders is at the summit that he held with them in july. on the other hand of some of them seemed to have felt a very close tie to precaution himself. how did, how do you see that developing wagner was not so fond detached from the state. uh, as you already mentioned, it operated as kind of a fig leaf for an estate. and i say regarding or id wasn't gauged in troll farms long before wagner came around. so he had this kind of outsourcing business. he was already there. now the military operations will serve you with can his deputy also killed in a crash. he was in 20122013. he wasn't serious trying to boost

the sort of training for the syrian army for us. that's for she didn't even go very well. it, it, it was, he was, he was a general office so, so the military intelligence service that during the cold war, always did this kind of missions, cooperation, military training for allied forces in for soviet allies and comedies proxies all across the world. training of revolutionaries due to stage cruise. all that stuff was, was always done um by uh, uh, by the 2 year old um, so they basically came back and said, okay, it is not going as well as we intend that. so let's, let's find some other way to finance and to, to put trade is there was a huge media attention on what was going on is here at the time, fulton was not really sure whether he should intervene on the south side. he didn't want to pitch him, but there was sort of the us red lines of okay, obama never least up to them. but now we know that obama never lived up to them

back then us red lines by taking bloody seriously. um, so a walk. now i'm sort of combining, but it's the, the sales guy, pretty grossing the, the kind of mafia, money loan. they're all pretty gosh and, and that's what he's called putting chef. that's nonsense. that most the money laundering for doing a lot of other things with the money to originally put things. cook. yeah, yeah. so you had a catering enterprise, but that is so that's like cold calling the commodity pizza delivery. so yes, that was the due process, but also i sort of to combine these 2 and say ok, you're the head of this company and here are 0, g, a real guys. and now let's combine this and, and send them to see written lens. we send them to ukraine and a scale it works. i mean, for pretty well. the problem, of course, has done sort of, concussion got over confidence in his business, but, but this was the ration. now i think they want to go back to that route to have

close ties between intelligence, russian foreign policy and the kind of steel brass plate cover for that. if i may, my impression is that the rest of it doesn't, can you bug there anymore? is it, is it kind of company to hide behind this because the russian state is not in the new stage of development russians. they came to open what they were like without any fighting the behind thing. the private companies became throw fabrics because because it was for a very long time denying that he's ordered up to 12 subjects or no of no 5 bargaining groups. and until recently, 2, a couple of months ago, it came up, come out with this huge acknowledgment the keys on the refinery. so our report said that it appears that the russian state would none the less continue to rely in future on private armies. do you think that's to explain? yeah, and if it is true, have those who lead these private are armies and there are a number of different ones out there. have they gotten the message from precaution

stuff that it would be advantageous to them not to act like rivals as a much as they might have gotten this mass, which i guess this was possibly intention as well. um, as for the other uh, private military companies, as i've mentioned the last, well trains less equipped um they have a view of financial resources. obviously, we know for example, rebuilt. i think it's the biggest of them all associated with the pass code and seem to incur it's actually again, not quite clear who has the upper hand. they are. is it possible attention call, have a role to play and syria protecting south and force faith resources rush. it was came on for texting and see there. but, but they have 7000 men. it's by, they don't have this opportunity to recruit from pino, count colon a so web to golden date. so in terms of the military expertise in terms of their resources and, you know, actually also the media clouds, they are less, it is going to, but i guess we're going to see the right lot around 40 profit companies in various

capacities authorizing now some of them have already signed contracts for the defense ministry, but i mean, they cannot be competitive in terms of the original scope and strength with bulk. now. so let's look beyond the fate of wagner itself and return to the question of we have precautions. death via vladimir putin. targeted killings have been no rarity under fourteen's rule, but is the report which they no longer reinforce his dominance. alexander licks and then go used to be a g, g b officer at lakeside, him, you're putting glitter at you worked for britain and my 6 and accused the kremlin ruler of orchestrating the assassination of journalist on a political sky. a litwin and go died in exile in london in 2006. and the british judge ruled that 2 russians had spiked his team with radioactive polonium at pollutants orders. sergey script, paul is a former double agent in 2018. he was almost murdered by

a nerve agent known as nava chalk, and salisbury, u. k, narrowly surviving london believes that put in was the mastermind of this attack as well. what about you have any precaution to as long considered to be put in strong man, especially in ukraine, but in june, he spent his mercenaries to moscow and then attempted to that meet the president, look week what we're experiencing is treason and the feedback is exactly 2 months later, if jenny precaution is dead, according to official reports, he died in a plane crash between moscow and saint petersburg. the kremlin calls accusations of its involvement in absolute life can expect more betrayals in the future. let me put that question to you. uh, good stuff. uh you mentioned camara and there is a mafia. esc quality. certainly to these targeted murders. they're designed to

signal dominance as with the mafia. but could it backfire? i think on the short term, not on the long term hunters of, for, for now putting uh, has consolidated his power. you see that, for example, in, in a copy on the russian armies, again, going on the defensive, despite numerous general generals, saying that, well, actually we should go on the defense. we need the resources that are wasted into so for ends for funding of the ukraine and come to offensive cetera. but it's the president who wants to have an offensive, especially against a sort of pushing for the, from the last couple us and, and, and going to slowly ends kinda towards, from the north. this is the old actually is a repeat more plan of what's happened last year. so you can see that, that within your own forces resistance against the president against ingles or flight plans that actually the big from mental to the war effort from,

from the russian point of view. there is no position anymore. so, so putting on the short term on the tax, it was time has one on the other hand, the war is far from over yet. and the more voting imprints who sort of his personal orders imprint themselves negatively on the war effort. or the more he runs the risk that each might backfire thoughts. this is brother a long term thing. here. let me ask you to weigh in on the consequences going forward, both for the war and ukraine, and also in russia domestically. we do have elections coming up in 2024. the kremlin spokesman recently said the actually not necessary, because sure the vladimir put in will be re elected. but does he need a positive turn in ukraine for that to happen? and will it occur if the wagner group is no longer playing the role it has? i'm pretty sure what the real creates some kind of for the discharge, and they're crying before the election as a kind of public public relations this strong understand it's. it's been over them

for, for sure. i agree with you with this long term long term. no one knows, but the short term is quite, quite stable. the system, somebody that petition because neither of these private companies, private companies have such a hurry. so could as much as you are on, on the, on the subject of his mind to, to, to go with such a political emissions because acute precaution development, quite strong political methods. and there isn't weeks and months even before the porch before this whole, think 2 months ago. so really to no one knows that political message saying, yeah, some of the russian citizens who have been congregating around impromptu memorials that have sprung up in moscow near the kremlin, but also elsewhere seem to feel, seem to still embrace precautions view that russia is not on the right track in ukraine and whether they are anti war or somehow pre, goshen,

hardliners, they seem to be quite dissatisfied how. what do you know about public opinion? very little. i think that's also logical. solve as i'm barely reliable. and actually i'm a bit confused about the public reaction to, to hear staff because of the i've read a lot of reports and done sort political field studies done exactly at the side of those and from 2 memorials. and some people are very unhappy about the course of the will of the sticks to the official line. and i guess they will feel a bit open to 5 to gordon's demise because can you create that sampling till 5 density? it pulls it 5 density for voc, the rods, especially those conscripted blocks from prisons as heroes. notice traders notice come of the earth but the social for spectacle citizen from the miss this sense of the loading provided. but that's just diffract mental relation. in other words, not a threat to pretend script that supports i think the rest of the se unimpressed is

very sort of of immune to any strong feelings and reactions to whatever happens poisonings. notice plain shots and they open a thing about on and process profoundly. thank you very much to all of you for being with us today. and thanks to all of our viewers for to and again, check out our website, tell us what you think the

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