a man on the d w. these places in europe are smashing the records step into an old adventure. it's the treasure map for modern globetrotters. discover some of us record breaking site on google back you too. and now also in book form the i didn't bit for teens i life analysis certificate. any precaution has been laid to rest. is wagner groups brief. nobody opened a troubling chapter that the kremlin wants to close. but our wagner is mercenaries ready to swear allegiance to the russian state and be absorbed by it. what fate lies in store for this? a huge horse that has intervened and conflicts from africa to ukraine, consignment put in when to over ordinary citizens who share precautions. view that

process on the wrong track. and how much pressure is restaurant under as the ukraine more drags on. today we're asking how secure is put in script on power after the death of wagner, chief precaution, the hello, and welcome to to the point. it is a pleasure to greet our guest, beginning with good stuff, chris. so who is the security and defense expert and senior policy fellow at the european council on foreign relations? and my esteemed colleague, finding me jason pop works on dw is russian desk. and it's a pleasure to welcome send a claim. she's a historian and visiting research fellow at this is a center for a contemporary history in a ton of stuff. and then yes, let's start with the enroll itself. it was quite

a low key affair. it was shrouded in secrecy during the trial and would very much like to turn the page document putting of course, stayed away from the funeral. will it succeed now in making a hiatus? i think so. i think so it's very much and i'm level into fate. and i think the way the funeral was stage to orchestra type is a perfect metaphor, what's going on? because oregon and gordon were both heroes of russia. and i'll expect to the, according to the protocol, to be given. state pin arose with all the pomp and circumstance, but none of that happened to where speculation is about how and where and when it's going to take place. the funeral itself, i think the press was not allowed and we have occasional pictures of the widow and the daughter of course conspiracy theories of proliferate side, whether it's actual, pre gordon who is buried there. and maybe he is, you know, missing somewhere and hiding somewhere like, you know, honey bo laptop i expect saying about the times. and actually,

i think pictures from the tools that we have a very telling stories, this very sort of a picture of a pain crowns, or 5 point by joseph brooks, k and the golden frame resembling about of an icon. and we're actually pictures. that's all right. they celebrate the goals and as a motto with a slash on hans, which is also also a different topic. but now this picture is full of them biblical. that's one of the joseph brots case. christian, a points about mary coming to the cross and confronting the border of jesus asking whether hughes or sign of god, whether he is alive or dead. and i think that's also a hint of the public confusion as to what the actual frequent was and has been informed cent berry. and so what the, his life. so why do we, let's talk about that confusion. russian investigators have now confirmed that precautions been killed. they did, a dna analysis says,

supposedly and russia is not planning to take part in any international investigation of the plane crash that killed pre goes. and often such an investigation is customary, but rest apparently has said it's not going to take part. so how much do we really know for sure. how sure can we be that pre goshen truly is dead as that protein was involved in the crash? well, there's a book describing crossing that attitude, but actually hold under added to your order and take advantage of the book because of the title. nothing comes through and i would think it's possible. you know, if this book is the best line, describe the, the kind of state of mind of our people and our board public dealing with news from russia because everything kind of puts an adult in your doctor. and basically every news that they would and every single single word from us and for us, precaution is gone. she's not anymore here. like nothing can sure everything

is possible. it's possible just in terms of put his own involvement or the kremlin the states involvement in the crash. essentially nothing happens in russia with out putins complicity. isn't that the case? that's what joseph biden say recently, and there are some, i mean, so you need someone very high level and involved on such kind of airplane progress able to, to, to shut down or it was a bump on board. i don't know. i personally, we probably not even know if more but the point is that this is not just the criminal strip guns. kidding. it's not just the exit and from the streets. it's about the car accident. it's something really big and i need it to make preparations to know that act like list. so then you can pick a date on the, on possible involvement of criminal or possible employment, or for a very high level, political or whatever security services, whatever. but the state of the russian production information system is

that time that we kind of discharge on anything the yeah, come kind of coming back to why no international investigation, what would be the international part of that investigation about the plane that crashed was made in brazil, it's embrace, so it belongs to the boeing white, a boeing family of factors. so usually if you have flight x accident with a plane, you'll have a in the international flight investigate as taking part of the investigation to determine future safety and flight safety risks for this type of aircraft. which because if you have, for example, if you remember these pointing 737 accidents that happened in asia as, as you was a boring experts, you had an american express. you had, i say experts there now and nothing happens like, god, that means, okay, so this is something else and the russian states has something to hide from them.

of course, we don't know what it has to hide and what he wants to hide, but we can say, but it's a hint that has the face of the same time. that was a domestic slide for almost cool doesn't fit his broken thing in terms of domestic slides. they really investigate domestic flights on with the domestic investigations coming to you. so no, no need to involve them resilience or in their comes about hour in an international forces on this, on this accident. so once again, shrouding things in uncertainty and let me ask you good stuff about what this means for the rodney group itself because it wasn't only precaution on that plane. in fact, it was a number of the top leaders of the group. is there anything left of wagner is command structure and where is dr. without? because she brought him here, has said he's gone whether he's dead or not. he's gone from the scene and he was a larger than life figure. can wagner go on without him as a well,

wagner star wars descending for some time, even before precautions test. so his media enterprise has already been dismantled. he has been pushed out in active operations in ukraine by, by may basically already. um and so he, he full 3 gods action to preserve as much from his empire as us as the court. now the fate of these people in belarus, the former fight, this is a no dial satellite images that just says that a lot of people have left hope you're doing well probably to private life. how many, how many miles are there in the 1st place is, is another guess um, uh, the international operations roughly continue um and this is of course they are in the interest of the criminal sort of crm and try to maintain their operations enough for kind that's in america cetera, bought this thing is of course,

and we saw that in the rush off because somebody at the pretty garden was allowed to access international leaders. cheese. i mean, pretty caution was not a military leader. he was the salesman, most of the, of the company in the front mine form for the whole show. and the part of these contracts and relationship with these machines are risk that don't, he's crease, man. i don't know how all relations will continue. i guess some of these regimes they will need brushing assistance whether they come from pretty goshen or for someone else. um for maintaining getting machines bought of course, um sort of the one of the north end in the relationships and with these relationships easy is about personal relationship and trust and knowledge of each other is gone. but yeah, well let's take a closer look at those points and where things go from here for a mercenary force that was known for its brutality and its international beach. the blue jays of flowers for precaution, and

a lot of speculation about the future of foreigners army. the russian army could take control of the mercenaries, or they could transfer the soldiers to another pair of military unit like reduced or co talk. or the unit could be allowed to continue as they are under the leadership of a new leader loyal to the kremlin. reports say that pollutants favors wagner's founder. andre trojans who did not participate in the to, to you serve him 2 days after per goes and private. jack crashed, who issued a decree that mercenaries must take an oath of allegiance to the russian state, just like soldiers. clearly he wants to keep depending on private armies, whether they're dispatched to africa or ukraine, who is also bestowing even more power. i'm long time, willis, general victor solid task head of the national guard, which was founded in 2016. he will get new weapons like tanks and other equipment

in addition to the regular state army, there's now a domestic army that the russian president can depend on, the russian security forces and mercenaries is everything under control. let me put that question straight to explain. yeah. is everything under control, the top to say again, but i think very much so i think that they are trying to now discuss those resources. and i think at some point as you've solved a pretty gordon became a lose cannon. very hard to control. and now i think they are relying more on other military grapes with small a lot of resources by far smaller resources that was strange that involved not ever was. and those resources of capers asked including media resources, the tools factory. they are going to find new hands. we're not quite sure which hands some of the results. so some of his assets are going to stay within the family. the business resources are relating to his capturing business and i'm going

to save sky department stores and paid his book to collect these am that also occasionally belongs to his his wife or something. um, but i think it in terms of the military assets um, some of the people are going to beacons, purposes where the defense ministry are. those will leave because a lot of the regular, i mean the false place for a reason. so they might won't be likely to return to regular army. there's also a question of who's going to pay them because most of his emotional needs were paid in cash. actually, the, the wagner veterans sold to say, describe the actual trucks with money, cash, and backs with the limits to them, bases and distribute sites. what's going on 2 baths now. you know, it's also a question related to his man and bill, original question, because i'm going to pay them. let's come back in a moment to where the money is. but let me ask of adding me a 1st about this attempt to now to get mercenaries difference point between wagner or precautions. business on state finance by state state sponsored,

but not the officer and being part of the russian state. and now being transformed to the part of the rest of the state a, the army states army trust sector on structure of some security service. but the deal with national national does either the state or not. so we'll see how good or how well it will be this trance formation of the work and how the whole business of sprinklers and throw somebody because a very good thing. because next year we have a residential presidential election in the united states or us. and we will be willing to help someone to bring the selection again. and it's a crucial point as well, because it's extremely important for us and operation in the okay, we'll be open the next presented to united states. so just keep in mind this part of the business of promotions? no, it's important that external outreach, business environment was just talking about is sometimes called a expeditionary foreign policy, a good stuff. it's essentially uh, a private arm that can do cobra activities in the interest of the state. and in

this case, clearly in africa and in syria, those interests were designed to both to extend russian influence, but also to counter u. s. influence. so where does that go now? is that going to be taken over by the state itself? we have seen, put in trying to court african leaders at the summit that he held with them in july on the other hand of some of them seemed to have felt a very close tie to precaution himself. how did, how do you see that developing wagner was not so fond detached from the state. uh, as you already mentioned, it operated as kind of a fig leaf for an estate. and um, so regarding or id wasn't gauged in troll farms long before wagner came around. so he had this kind of outsourcing business. he was already there. now the military operations to serve you can his deputy also killed in

a crash. he was in 20122013. he wasn't serious trying to boost um the sort of training for the syrian army for us, how it's received. it even go very well. it, it, it was, he was, he was a general office so, so the military intelligence service that you, during the cold war, always the, this kind of commissions cooperation, military training for allied forces in for soviet allies and communities, proxies all across the world. training of revolutionaries to, to stage cruise. all that stuff was, was always done um, by uh, uh, by the general. um, so they basically came back and said, okay, it is not going as well as we intend that. so let's, let's find some other way to finance and to, to put trade is there was a huge media attention on what was going on is here at the time, fulton was not really sure whether he should intervene on the south side. he didn't want to pitch him, but there was sort of the us red lines of okay, well,

bama never least up to them. but now we know that obama never lived up to them back then us red lines by taking bloody seriously. so. so to walk now and sort of combining, but it's the sales guy, pretty grossing the, the kind of mafia, money loan. they're all pretty goshen. and that's what he's called putting shift that's known as examples. the money laundering for doing a lot of other things with the monetary originally putting is cook. yeah, yeah. so you had a catering enterprise, but that is so that's like cold calling the commodity pizza delivery. so yes, that was into passers but also um, uh, sort of to combine these 2 and say, okay, you're the height of this company. and here are 0, g, a real guys. and now let's combine this and send them to see written lens. we send them to ukraine on a scale, it works and it worked pretty well. the problem of course, has done sort of pedagogy and got over confidence in his business, but,

but this was the ration. and now i think they want to go back to that route to have close ties between intelligence, russian foreign policy and the kind of steel brass plate cover for that. if i may, my impression is the dress, it doesn't keep bugging. there anymore is it, is it kind of company to hide behind this because the russian state is not in a new stage of development russians. they've came to open what they were like without any fighting the behind thing in private, the companies became throw off a brief because because it was for very long time denying the fuse, ordered up to the 12th of breaks or from the far back in the groups and until recently, up to a couple of months ago, it came up, come out with this huge acknowledgment the keys on the refinery. so our report said that it appears that the russian state would none the less continue to rely in future on private armies. do you think that's to explain? yeah, and if it is true, have those who lead these private are armies and there are

a number of different ones out there. have they gotten the message from production stuff that it would be advantageous to them not to act like rivals as a much as they might have gotten this mass, which i guess this was possibly intention as well. um, as for the other uh, private military companies, as i've mentioned the last, well trains less equipped um they have a view of financial resources. obviously, we know for example, rebuilt. i think it's the biggest of them all associated with the pass code and seem to incur it's actually again, not quite clear who has the upper hand. they are. is it possible attention call have a role to play and syria protecting south and forced faith resources. rush that was came on for texting and see their but, but they have 7000 men. it's by, they don't have this opportunity to recruit from pino, count colon a so web to golden date. so in terms of that military expertise in terms of their resources and you know, actually also the media clouds,

they are less than this country, but i guess we're going to see the right lot around 40 profit companies, various capacities authorizing now some of them have already signed contracts for the defense ministry, but i mean they cannot be competitive in terms of the original scope and strength with bulk. now. so let's look beyond the fate of wagner itself and return to the question of where precautions death leaves body me to put in. targeted killings have been no rarity under footings rule, but it's the report which they no longer reinforce his dominance or alexander licks and go used to be a g, g b officer at lake vladimir putin. later he worked for britain and my 6 can accuse the kremlin ruler of orchestrating the assassination of journalist on a political sky, a litwin and go died in exile in london in 2006. and the british judge ruled that 2 russians had spiked his team with radioactive polonium at hooton's orders.

sergey square, paul is a former double agent in 2018. he was almost murdered by a nerve agent known as nava chalk, and salisbury. u. k. narrowly surviving london believes that clinton was the mastermind of this attack as well. what about you have any precaution? he was long considered to be boot and strong man, especially in ukraine. but in june, he spent his mercenaries to moscow and then attempted to that made the president look weak up to what we're experiencing is trees in the predictions exactly 2 months later, if jenny precaution is dead, according to official reports, he died in a plane crash between moscow and saint petersburg, the kremlin calls accusations of its involvement an absolute lie. can you expect more betrayals in the future? and let me put that question to you. uh, good stuff. you mentioned camara and there is a mafia. esc quality,

certainly to these targeted murders. they're designed to signal dominance as with the mafia, but could it backfire? i think on the short term, not on the long term windows. uh for, for now putting uh has consolidated his power. you see that, for example, in inquiry on the russian armies, a gun going on the defensive, despite numerous journal of generals saying that, well, actually we should go on the defense. we need the resources that are wasted in this of ends for funding all of the training come to offensive cetera. but it's the president who wants to have an offensive, especially against a sort of pushing for the, from around school blast and, and, and going to slowly and coming towards from the north. this is the old actually is that repeat more plan of what's happened last year. so you can see that, that within your own forces resistance against the president,

the guns think it was the flight of plans that actually did on victor mental to the war effort from, from the russian point of view. um that there is no position anymore so. so put in on the short term on the tax, it was time has one. on the other hand, the war is far from over yet. and the more fulton imprints, who sort of his personal orders imprint themselves negatively on the war effort. or the more he runs the risk that each might backfire thoughts. this is brother a long term thing. here. let me ask you to weigh in on the consequences going forward, both for the war and ukraine and also in russia domestically. we do have elections coming up in 2024. the kremlin spokesman recently said the actually not necessary because sure the vladimir put in will be re elected. but does he need a positive turn in ukraine for that to happen? and will it occur if the wagner group is no longer playing the role it has?

i'm pretty sure what the real creates some kind of positive turns into their crime before the election as a kind of public public relations. this style not stunned. it's. it's been over them for, for sure. i agree with you with this long term. long term. no one knows. but the short term is quite, quite stable. the system, somebody that petition because neither of these private companies privately that the companies have such a hurry. so could as much figure on, on the, on the subject of his mind to, to, to go with such a political emissions because acute precaution development, quite strong political methods. and there isn't weeks and months even before the porch before this whole, think 2 months ago. so, um, really to no one knows that political message saying, yeah, some of the russian citizens who have been congregating around impromptu memorials that have sprung up in moscow near the kremlin, but also elsewhere seem to feel, seem to still embrace precautions view that russia is not on the right track in

ukraine and whether they are anti war or somehow pre goshen, hardliners, they seem to be quite dissatisfied how. what do you know about public opinion? very little. i think that's also logical. solve as i'm barely reliable. and actually i'm a bit confused about the public reaction to, to hear staff because of the i've read a lot of reports and done sort political field studies done exactly at the side of those and from 2 memorials. and some people are very unhappy about the course of the will of the stick to the official line. and i guess they will feel a bit open to 5 to gordon's demise. because can you create that, that sampling till 5 density? it pulls it 5 density full, fox and rods, especially those conscripts of all the loss from presence of heroes. notice traders notice come of the oars, but the social for respectable citizen from the miss. this sense of the loading provided for best diffract mental population. in other words, not

a threat to pretend script that supports i think the rest of the se unimpressed is very sort of of immune to any strong feelings and reactions to whatever happens poisonings. notice plain shots and they open a paper on and process profoundly. thank you very much to all of you for being with us today. and thanks to all of our viewers for to and again, check out our website, tell us what you think the,

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