and there's no reason that's nothing for me this. yeah, i believe something that is coming very, very soon on. we know when the story in for migrate reliable needs to migrate wherever they may be your credit and says it's counter offensive is gaining momentum and won't slow down even when bad weather hits. but a top us general says the window for success is closing. with autumn, just weeks away, risk james haven't come easy. defenses are deep ukraine's forces have had to pick their way through mine fields and type stitches and take a considerable casualties underway. western experts say they've shown courage and adaptability, but will need more weapons to keep up the progress. meanwhile, putting this army is under pressure, facing shortages of men and munitions. one reason why an unusual meeting and rushed

as far east made worldwide headlines. we're asking ukraine's counter offensive is north korea bolstering precious military? the hello and welcome to to the point. it is a pleasure to create our guest, sarah, how going is program director at germany's curb a foundation? and as also worked with the german council on foreign relations as an expert on russian for an in security policy. alexa and your soap off heads, the russian program at germany is friedman's a. but foundation and my colleague roman bunch of us works for the russian and ukraine desk here at dw. i'd like to start out if i may, with a look at where things stand on the battlefield and ukraine and roman i'd like to

begin with you. if i may, ukrainian leaders are sounding quite a bit more optimistic canals and they were earlier in the summer. do you share that positive outlook? so i would be cautiously optimistic. indeed, we've seen in the past few weeks that the ukraine and offensive has been more successful than during the whole summer, especially in the south. but i think it's too early to say that the you that this, this will continue at the same pace. this is what you're doing is hoping for, but there are several difficulties. so you crime is trying to still is trying to conceal where the major blow will be. because as soon as you can enforce us, assess. ready and uh, it's a troops in one place. russia is immediately hitting them with rockets with a with ashcroft. and that is why your crime is trying to disperse it's, it's a, it's a, it's forces and is trying to,

to these guys where the major blow will be as upset. and that is why it's one of the reasons. and of course, there are of those reasons, like the mind feels who have been talking all summer about and the weather is changing and it is autumn. it is the full beginning. so that's why you're crying and troops do kind of forces are under pressure. but in general, i would say we can be costly. so cautiously optimistic of the moment. thank you very much moment and excuse me, i misspoke when i introduced here. so i do apologize for that. let me go to uh, sarah, now, and words like slug or grind. those are the kind of descriptions we're hearing when it comes to this inch by inch combat that the ukrainian forces are undertaking. how significant would you say the gains are that has been made recently in the counter offensive? and how great is the pressure on rushes defenses? so the gains that we have seen probably within the last one or 2 weeks, i think are the most profound gains, probably not in terms of territory because we're still talking about rather small

space that of crank congress. but it's strategically important because they basically broke through quite important and quite strong the russian defense lines, but are assumed at the moment. it's too early to say is this is, this is for each, if this is really a break through. so something that can lead to greater ukrainian games, i think that will be that will probably be visible within maybe the next one or 2 weeks also because as you said before, time's running up when item comes to time, got really, really muddy. so ukraine really has to do something now. and alex h, a talk to us a little bit about the, the status and situation of russian forces their fighters at the front are said to have been there for very long periods of time awaiting replacements that don't show up. and there's also apparently shortages of crucial weapons like tanks and also munitions. how grave is all of that will put in be worrying?

well, the military command essentially busy with keeping down the lines and keeping position, but it's to be honest, it's much easier if you compare the tall which is being taken on the people, but also on the military resources is much easier to defend and russian, russian, and forces has had a lot of time to entrench. and so even the advances that side of us talking about not yet are something where you could talk about the paradigm shift. russia is in the strategic defense, are talking about the metals, the metal space since many months, and this hasn't changed and it's easier to maintain this position. and also if you look at what's the government's and the military command undertaken terms of recruitment and replenishment, it seems to work with our major mobilization waves. i mean, we don't need to take numbers for granted that they're being translated by the official sources. but it is clear that replenishing the fighters is not as complicated as it seemed to be half

a year ago. i want to come back to that in just a moment because that recruitment drive is taking rusher quite far afield. but 1st, let's take a closer look at the status of the counter offensive itself in ukraine, as we heard from sarah autumn means rain, mud, and cold temperatures. will they stall the country's forces as they seek to break through russian lines? pick up a gift for the russians, they shout and fire a mortar shell. ukraine is reporting successes on the eastern and southern fronts. further areas are said to extend recaptured at the fence lines broken, but in small risky steps, the area is mind. autumn will soon turn the solid ground to the front in 2 months, and that will be a norm, as pressure on the soldiers be offensive success, according to military, experts will depend on reserves. that is the number of soldiers ukraine will still be able to mobilize these students and key up have signed up for military training

after 4 years so that they can become officers and the ukranian army. but how many new soldiers can be sent directly to the front is on clear. and to win the war. ukraine is asking for one thing above all, we need more heavy weaponry, heavy weaponry. and again, heavy weaponry is ukraine running out of time? and roman, if, if i may, it, was you koreans, chief of military intelligence who actually spoke the statement that i quoted earlier saying that you, crane's going to press ahead with this counter offensive no matter what the weather does, do you think that is feasible or is he simply bluffing to lower energy and the more out. so of course it is feasible. look, there will be of course, slow down due to the weather conditions. but um, it will probably last

a few weeks through november. it may be in into december, but then um, with the temperatures below 0. um we, we can expect in defining to continue. and we've seen that in the past. yeah. so we've seen that especially the russian forces and had some advantage during the winter and take would recapture towns like solid or, and laser bus mode. so if there are, some can, can do it. ukrainians can do it as well. so i expect it just, it may be a short pause, a short slowing down, but on the other hand, look at the fighting now is mostly done by ukrainian infantry ukraine is in the notes and sending over all the heavy weapons that did go from from western countries in the past months, in, in spring like, um, main bundled tags on other heavy vehicles on the front so you can't use them saving them. and the reason is because russia has been very successful at

destroying those pieces very, that you can't, has only dozens of them and, and they're very valuable for the ukranian army. so your credit is trying to send the infantry in. and that's why it's so slow, but on the other hand, mont is not a big problem for infantry. so if you're attacking, i do not expect to maybe and may just load on slow down of the okay, and offensive. you mentioned the recapture that occurred last winter. let's say that ukraine does succeed in breaking through and taking some of the area. the areas in town is currently occupied by russia. would it have enough forces to hold them once once it had them briefly? if you would as well yes, i think the most important thing for your brain is to move about 15 to 20 kilometers to what stacy all of us of to what's crimea and being there are you can, will be able to shoot to, to put under and of salary. fire,

they've already important drought connecting the mainland russia with crime. yeah. and this is the goal of ukraine and armed forces at the moment. thank you. from the end of sarah retired us general david betray us recently told darcia avella that it would be key for ukrainian forces. and this is something that roman just mentioned to break the line of communication that connects russia through south eastern ukraine with the forces that are north of crimea. so can you talk a little bit about crying? the is cry, media in the end, essentially crucial to, to what happens in the further pursuit of this war. it is going to cause it is to teach equally important and that to the finance as well as to the russians. because 1st, um, crimea is used as inquiry door or logistical chords or for the russian armed forces to get them like soldiers but also military or sources military equipment through

the or on the bridge of courage. so this is really important. on the other hand, from, from your rush, i can also strike quite deep into a crate insured tori. and the 3rd factor is that it hosts russia as black sea fleet, and thereby, is able to control or the black sea and also ukrainians, green exports. mario black sea, so for the russians is really crucial. and on the other hand, that's right for the crate is crucial. because if they can fit the russians to the can, that can hit their other logistical court, or if they could hit their black sea fleet. and this is really important. so that's why crum, yeah, it's really one of the spots of hot spots. so fix war, i want to talk about the black sea fleet in just a moment, but a quick follow up question to you. could you imagine that within the next 6 weeks before autumn hits that we would see significant progress by the ukrainian forces in terms of breaking through the supply lines that do connect russia to, to korea as to where you're honest, i am,

i am skeptical to speak i don't say that is like impossible, but it will be a hard task to do basically because with the breaches that we see at the moment within the russian defense lines, ukraine has to widen them to secure their for to secure the okay of length and ukraine. has to, you know, hold these breeches and the spare house within the russian defense lines. and then for like, pushing to fast forward can be a risk of, you know, secure and these best spell has long something. so i see here that it's a strategic choice that you created has made probably doing both will be very, very hard. and alexa, in fact, ukraine recently launched a major attack on the crimea in ports the festival, which is the vase for russia's black sea fleet. how significant is that? could that prove a turning point?

well, it's certainly complimentary to what sata is describing. so if you kind of physically be in range of direct artillery fire, but you can use medium or longer range weapons to actually put crimea notes for installation. so independence a lot in danger. then you so convinced the difficulties of actually advancing, but you put immediate and direct pressure on the russian presence on dependence, which was the highest and bullet coming from you is deemed the authentic sation is core land. it's a different status that you can see between crimean and usually an ex territory. so i think that the slower or the advance and the more complicated it might get, the more important the parts where and this was the quote you showed the heavy weaponry miss files munition, which is needed to sustain the pressure without being able to physically come closer to crimea, crimea is the punching back. the more pressure is applied, then we'll all use it is that the war does not progress according to the russian scenario. so it's very cool. mm hm. and roman,

the ukraine military took the unusual step of acknowledging of, of openly claiming to be responsible for that strike on the semester for what does that tell us? why did they, you, generally, they don't issue such attributions. why did they do it? in this case? and what does that strike itself tell us about key of missile compete capabilities? so i think one of the reasons, maybe they're very proud of it. and these are indeed a very unusual events that we've seen in the past few weeks. i just remember um where you had we, that was a, a drawing attack on a russian military base. uh, any ups calls on the nav field where a large and a f, a transport us an endurance of 76 were destroyed. russian badly needs them to move troops around with just a few days ago. and as we speak russia and was attacked in crimea on the bus,

crimea, i am, the big ship was destroyed, or at least have it damaged. and for the 1st time, a submarine, somebody, and that was used to launch missiles on ukraine in 10 or 3. it is a very big successful your crime. and you can also destroyed the russian onto aircraft s 400 system just a few weeks ago. and the reports not confirmed yet as we speak days and they manage to distort a 2nd one and your, your front door to. so these shows that ukrainian is maybe not so successful as everybody expected on the battlefield on the front line. but on the other hand, deep inside russian territory ukrainian is need, is splitting more and more pressure on the russian army. and this will be just a matter of time when, when the russian troops on the battle ground will will feel it. mm hm. and sarah, clearly ukraine would like to be able to do more such attacks because in fact, for months now it's been pressing the us to deliver army tactical,

long range missile systems. president biden is said to be just a few days away from deciding would that be a game changer for this for no, i don't think so. is on the specific weapon system that we have been talking about within the last month is not a game changer in itself. we rather have to understand it as a possible where we have different pieces of puzzle we need to put together for, you know, supporting ukraine in a way that we can actually win this war. and i think these long range rapids like the american ones, like also the german towers are a part of this possible. so i would say there's been ongoing debate for some time now about whether a boost in western support. a real boost would actually help bring this war to a quicker end, or whether it might provoke put in to escalate what's your take on that? well, as i think, so what is a real boost, right? there was so much discussion about the definition of real. it's real,

the support is real. the question is a distribution over limited resources over time, right. so there are 2 schools. so thinking the one is the one you're referring to saying, let's put everything we have and can immediately activate to give to you, create the invoices on the table and give it to them now. so that there is a quick and to this phase of the middle to confrontation. and then there is a thinking, school thinking thing. this is going to be a long thing. so you need to project this over time over the x of time, which then links back to mail it to industrial capabilities of sustaining. so it doesn't make sense just to give a weapon system and not being able to arm it in a matter of weeks. but also looking back to popular support in europe, the, especially in europe, in context whenever you have connections upcoming next year. so there are 2 schools and thinking, i don't know which one is correct. history will show and this is the tragic thing that it's, it's unclear whether it would be better. what is clear for me is that the thinking about the depth of support. so not just talking about the weapon system, but actually talking about what does it mean, industrially speaking,

logistic just beating that this technology will be used by ukraine of a long period of time. and i like this debate because it's debate about domestic capabilities. the bit of a long term investment i mean, is going on, but it's not as and the focus is you know, this little bit finish eyes ation of a specific weapon. has a little bit of a window of, of a face to it. i don't like it to be honest. you, let's switch tracks now and talk a little bit more about what russia might need to keep going. and sir, if i, if i can start with you. apparently, russia has been trying to recruit reinforcements from places as far away as central asia, armenia, because ex done and even from cuba. how grave are the shortages that rest is facing? not only of men, but also if munitions. i don't think that the shortages are great or really hindering the russian the worship warfare and ukraine, however, are seeing the russian regime has a problem. we have seen that within the mobilization ways that we've seen last year,

that maybe didn't cause a position or widespread po, test in the russian in russian society. but it or something like maybe like on rest or people worrying, definitely legal court. and that's, that's something that the russian really wants to prevent because it wouldn't basically, once this double lies its power. so it has to find ways to, to get soldiers into recruits soldiers without causing this wide spread or varying among the russian population. i think, you know, looking in more, more regions far away from the centers looking and other countries offering a lot of money or measures to really prevent this kind of, you know, people boring inside rush, i think. so that's good. this kind of measure. and that's of course, a hard thing to do because didn't need soldiers. well, you don't want to make too much fuss about it, but i think so far it works quite well for the russian machine gun. so might not be

enough for a new offensive. but it's enough for the defense of the russian forces by end of the month. so given these constraints that russia is facing, the recent meeting between put in a north korean dictator, kim joan, on has certain way attracted world wide attention. kim travelled for 2 days in his private honor train for his 1st visit was put in in 4 years. russia's best option, the consummate room or space center, was the backdrop for warm professions or friendship that included kim's declaration of support. for what he called russia's sacred fight. what that support might entail in material terms remained unclear but putting did acknowledge the prospect of military cooperation. and most likely it was no coincidence that the korean delegation included high level military and conditions industry representatives. so let me go to roman and ask you how worried should kids be? so i'm give should be void worries, of course, because um, um,

when russia is getting more munition, we don't know. we speculate about that. it is, of course, a problem for the credit in forces. i don't think russia isn't much need. uh bought probably the uh roughly is planning had for the next year. and then it could be a problem for the auction on and not at the moment. i think it looks like a restaurant is preparing also for, for, for the case that you kind will get the long range weapons like a tak, i'm ass, we've been talking about. and in that case, ukraine will intensify its attempts to destroy the russian munition, to oppose. this is one of the rest and proceeds and mess with weapons mostly used for. so you're brand new, striking, very targeted, the russian emanation, deposed. and this is where the all the administering is goes up, and that's why they need or punishment. one more thing is that i probably, i guess, my guess is that maybe they were also talking about the labor force from north

korea. because a russia, russian economy is suffering from a huge shortages of labor, a lot of men are fighting millions left the country who do not want to flies and they need to be replaced. and present. putting is very much a guy not to let the russian economy sofa, so he will be looking for opportunities to get labor force somewhere, probably enough career. so a comment on that also, uh, if you would. and in fact, russia has already receiving supplies from another pariah states, namely, iran. do you think north korea will be added to the list and will it make a difference for russia? i think it looks like it. and i think as it is possible for the west and ukraine to put together ukraine's, i'm luxurious or says, it's also a puzzle for russia they have or like they have an industrial production. for

example of, i'm human ition that is high, but that is not least efficient in the long term and they have problems meeting their goals, but doesn't mean that they are really short of it is also, you know, it's also a list for them. and i think north korea, but also around are for russia, a puzzle, a piece of puzzle that they need to release a state in their military efforts. and i think it's, it's no surprise and both are uh for various states. cuz if you're a states planning to deliver up hands to russia, you face heavy wisdom functions. but if you're a country like north korea around and you're already heavily sanctions, that probably is not something that really it prevents you from doing. so let me ask, i would say to a comment on those 2 to some degree, potentially contradictory aspects of this because these are to have most isolated, heavily sanctioned leaders in the world put in. and kim, even put in acknowledge that if they try to do business with each other, they're going to be certain restrictions as they put it. so what kind of support

would even be feasible here? i mean, i think the real contradiction is here that north korea's not just on the sanctions, just sanction it's under sanctions that were co voted for by russian. so you see it's, it's, it's a different scenario now. and i think for a long time of career didn't have anything to offer even the labor contingents that were sometimes bought it in different projects. it's, it's nothing significant upgrade was a trouble for the russian federation and they followed the chinese lead. so if the china wants to sanction north korea, they are for it. if there is a phase of better relations, thrush has supported it for the 1st time. in the common history of modern russia, there was a joint interest significantly has something to offer. this hasn't been the case and this has munition enough to re, by the way, isn't as a special place both in the chinese but also in the north korean military logic. so they actually have something to offer. and of course, they have a lot to,

to ask for, and russia could deliver quite some things way below the levels which are relevant for actual technological sanctions. so, so bottom line, our title asked whether north korea will bolster military of, of russia's military. some observers say short term may be, but this is not a game changer. would you agree? yeah. and let me ask sarah, do you think that ultimately there are also systemic implications here that for some parias states coming together, will that in effect mix sanctions less effective going forward? no, i think the effective and sanctions rather depends on the you know, how much west and stays really implement and follow up the best thing she has. i think this is a much more important factor. he and that's something that we see is not really working as a church and very quickly back to roman roman north korean supports a game changer. no, no, no word. thank you very much to you. roman for being with us and also to our guest

here in the studio. sarah alex a and thanks to all of you for tuning in, look at our website, check it out. and so tell us what you think the,

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