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tv   Conflict Zone  Deutsche Welle  September 15, 2023 1:30am-2:01am CEST

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in 60 minutes on d w. well, the in progress pop calls to everyone who wants to know more about the topic. the 2nd son about this story is the on the headline world in progress. the w talk cost i worry about the will of the west to continue to do what needs to be done. strong words from my desk this week data is full, the deputy supreme commander of your so richard sheriff, there is still in your, among european countries a lingering feel that somehow we can go back to some sort of stage with crow and to with russia. that is not going to happen. so what does he think will happen? so the lobbying prospect soon focus the loud wake up, cool for york and the american general associates at sheriff,
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welcome to come fix up. thank you very much and just bear with me here. you're kind of shocked up some successes on the battlefield in recent weeks, i've actually taken back control of drilling platforms. now in the black sea. i wondered if you could give us an idea of some of the, of the scale of the challenges k of now faces in order to make further advances. i think it would be really difficult to overestimate the challenge. i mean, the brand is, uh, uh, ranged against what a stablish russian defenses other options have, have time to begin. they know, by digging in they've got in probably by the book. and the credit is gonna break it into that very, very well as a defensive design. breakthrough, it's going to take don, mine feels like go to us. they've gotta keep with the significance. i'll talk to the risk incoming file. they've got a breakthrough and then they got
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a break out and they got to do all of this without proper eye color without a superiority which no nature allow me would consider to identify about that doing as well. no, no. so on a full stop has done a prize obstacle crossing in really difficult circumstances. you know of the day. so i'll be with the exception of the us codes go to even take this long coded and it's cutting in the account and fold. oh, i think i think it is, i think okay, any nice i well, i mean, but, but the, so as far as to high intensity, come back on pricing would be, would it be prepared to take this on but no, with our an extraordinary amount of time preparation, training of building up the equipment building i found additional doing is i'm in a sense it's it's is this as well? um, i mean the, the, the college did in 91 was to break for the rocky defensive position, but it was on a past. so it was pretty easy, guy never has done this since the 2nd world war in your most has always have sped,
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j is on counter insurgency in places like iraq, as you mentioned, that kind of stuff. so they're not exactly used to defending against a huge invasion, but your emphasis and the last few months has been on telling them that they should is that which i think is going to happen. i think it's nice to have is that it's uh, russia long term nature is going to be printed prepared for the worst case, which has to be prepared to fight russia. we have major armies of golf. i've got to put the conference agency mindset behind them. and we can talk about, so there is an understanding of time constituted combat operations. how much was the on, depending your national arm is during the cold war. now that's going back a very long time. i've started a new generation, have got to find ways to do as the exact same of sleet of foot to resubmit it. as if we've seen the it's members zombies and spend a few days in latvia training where someone just realized the whole data personnel
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speak the same language with the same degree of deficiency, nevermind type job. so the 3 out of $24.00, but it's big military vehicles broke down on the boat to way it's not impressive is at the moment. well they, so, i mean, i remain outside of nice i, but you have to recognize which nice side of that it takes time that it's a consensus organization i added it's got to be able to is it has to move up to speed of a flight ship in the convoy, i mean, coming back to your fast don't touch it, and that's a strategic point. your tactical points that you're talking about. well, that's what exercises are for the test to get it right until during this time, my things are going wrong. and so you can put them right, they started flips, of thoughts made. so multinational operations, at least it's black, but it needs to hurt and it's capability and it's still higher and it's capability by training. and it's a can do that and really pursue the, the to see, right?
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so then span it can, it can build the big begin to build up that to turn capability that is needed for the side of build up by that. so i was now, i went all the way more than 18 months into the largest line. boy, you have since the 2nd world war. shouldn't things be going a little better these days? right. it might just saying things going wrong, the better for me to stop and brought from us to for, i mean, we need to recognize this more. didn't begin in february 20 uh, february 2022. it began in, in, in, in march 2041, the right one rush hour. i've talked to brian. all you play february 2014 when it's a nice kind that i just made. so how it works or not, but i'm and really puts it in place. the measures required to build up it's high intensity capability. a, we might not be where we are, be your brain might pop by re, by, well, anyway, factors, we all, what we also want so showed us to the grind started make it happen, drive home and you call to for not to do that sort of thing. so i'm with you completely. last year, a study as parameters,
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the car callous of all the data is previous plans for defending the baltic states. a country with basic therapy wiped out of the map by a russian, a box, tomatoes, extensive planning stuff over the years of a cold war as increase based stock posts the day. well, that's exactly why i write my book, the russia. i hide, it highlights the french to the baltic states written as a wakeup, cool to get and they started thinking about what it would do because car callous was absolutely right. that if the russians attacked, it would have presented and they, so with the 2 options, one right? by accept number 2 months, a massive invasion of the voltage states to reach out to them. and so it is absolutely right. no, i'm not privy to the planning, but nature is putting in place extensive plans to defend nay to entire truth, which is exactly what it should be doing. but at the same time it's one thing to put a plans in place. it means the means to protect and comes,
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brings us back to building up. data is the tire and capability. and that means focusing on high intensity conflict on the capability is required for high intensity conflict. it also means providing the cash to do that stuff. that is, i mean, you've got the 3 largest economies in may say you've got from germany, and it's all, they still don't paying 2 percent of g d, p to most defense. so what kind of signal does that send to the cabinet? like a wireless? it's under say that's, that's a pretty ball 2nd, a lot of pain. let's look at the positives last. i'm in the positives of countries like highland absolutely building up. it's kind of that is a go the voltage sides started a lot. the see right now, likewise, of course that guys are not saying not i was in the czech republic recently, project republic are really putting the money while they're in boxes and building up the capabilities is that you're absolutely right. countries like germany, it's a late frost, not yet beginning to spend 2 percent of g d. p. indeed,
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the job of defense budget for trying to try to get free is not that it was for 2022 . what sort of signal does not said, what does that tell you about the cycles i can vendor this cycle. moments of grades change when johnny was going to guarantee 2 percent of g d p. yeah, on yeah, in defense, i would also not just like i wouldn't let but, and also the whole kinds of, i mean bridges. so not cosette. brittany will spend 2 percent 2.5 percent of g d p . when the economy allows that off. right, isn't good enough and that's where a long way of showing in this country side of western european countries, frankly need to wake up and he will walk gaming this conflict and you cry. and with all that stop logistical administrative, political uncertainties thrown into the mix. how are it, would you be? well, i'm an optimist. i made sure, but i'm also rest rid of this. i think the ukraine will achieve its military objectives. ukraine does not kind of stop slicing. you've kind of determination,
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but will, in ukraine is absolutely extraordinary. ukrainians know that if i stop fighting, ukraine will stop existing as a country, so they won't go on fighting until they've defeated russia with all with on the west. what does want to me though, is the west support for ukraine? americans support for your grand? we're coming up to the election. yeah. free of or leading republican the contents of sudden i would pull out pull americans support from ukraine. an election yeah. means potential in decision and stuff is i worry about the level of capability to support in, for example, whether the time continue to dig deep and provide the ammunition and all of our capabilities affect your credit. and so i want to back provide rotation. i worry about prevarication, for example, jonathan is still hasn't made up his mind whether to send taurus the long range precision this all seriously capable and exactly what your training needs to
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complement it's high miles on the british storm shadow as well. so those of the, i worry about the will of a west to continue to do what needs to be done. and there's a simple equation. yeah. if the west does, what needs been done, the west is going to be more secure because it will mean ukraine can defeat russia quickly if this thing runs old on, on, on the west as your, as a whole, will be less secure and in jeopardy syringe and we don't talk much about on the in was these days, but it's an honorable stops in your view for the west to say to you, craig, okay, you go ahead and cite di for our values and we'll give you some of what you need to do that but we're not going to risk upsetting your it'd be too much so that he turns on us, is that on mobile? well, i think it's difficult and i figured i'd for those books, right, that was honorable. i'm on the floor for example, the nation that somehow the west and they tire shouldn't be and insisting
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but you credit and find some more a that, that, that meets and that, but the way that nice i would do it might be very simple, gives the ukrainians the means to do the job and let them get on with it, provides the supports in terms of intelligence and cyber and an e w. of course. but don't try. i'm 2nd guest, ukrainian generals and say, you know what works. they have been fighting the russians not for over 18 months, and they have, they have watched it, the russians, they have demonstrated that that's all about what they still like is real capability. and equally, your point about uh, putting the time the constraints on your brand. it is absolutely right for you grind development, defend itself to practice in a level right of self defense. and if i mean, striking out into russia, well, so be, it's, i'm afraid this self deterrence is it well by the west has only resulted in, in the prolonged action of the war. if you cry and not have the means to really
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follow up the the liberation of cas on in november last year. things might be different as it was, they didn't have that capability. but as a west, i've not given them one rule they really needed. and in a timely memo of that, a lot of the russians to reestablish the front line. so robot can to stop building the cycle. so robot can line of defense making it much, much more difficult for the credit. and so that's a simple equation. it was if you apply, if you concentrate of, if you, if you, if you really go for a vendor, you're going to change. all right? and so if you triple a few prevaricates, you're going to make things much less because it kind of take much longer. you're talking about ukraine striking into russian territory with costa bones. have you no qualms about that? 100 countries, so about what the a mazda, i dropped the bombs around a vile on file. i don't expect to walk across the rail and absolutely to close the use of the bombs spots. if you, if trust,
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if you cry and needs possible items to clear a russian friend of systems on your credit, entire tree, that is a completely different that to you. that is a model for the pregnancy. but what your crime does need is long range because there's new types of bullets is so that it can target russian logistic installations headquarters on the light and, and make it very difficult for the russians. you've got a wide, influential circle of ukrainian contacts, government, parliament, military intelligence in may you even spend the nights in a and a bump, shelter and care? is that right on the front part of the mileage of the functional to along with many of the people who visited the crime, what was the mood like the inspirational, the time? and absolutely, this is wrong. i mean, the current is, as i said out there, i'll click that, and uh, to find to protect the literacy. they recognize that this is a will not just against ukraine, but it's again, it's a war against the west and the prend, joining the west. the determination,
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the inspiration of the engine, you were to the uh, the, the relative use of the leadership. this is a dynamic country, determined to build it, to protect itself and to build itself up until the account. i'm part of the west that people are afraid about what the west might do or might not do to help them. i've been using face in the west. my thing is known as the grateful to the west for what the west has given them. i think i understand that the better is frustration, but the west is trying to 2nd guess them and tell them how to use it, where a number and the number of recent articles which which, which, which i think i've made the point in the west. we're trying to 2nd guess the requirements, but fundamentally, i think you companies are absolutely absolutely grateful, but let them get all and as i said to them that some get on and do what they need to do without interfering with them. and the comments like, uh,
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will be with you all the way for as long as it takes they listen to those coming out of brussels. i listen to those coming out of washington that i believe of. do you believe them? well, i think i'm a, the 1st one here, but i do wire, as i said on the that will continue unless the positive actually let's, let's say for example, yes, the nice i some, it was very clear in terms of the support, but i would like to see also actually a statement of the nature of somebody that ukraine will join nature when the conditions allow when the financing has stopped. and i went ahead and we are okay to give you without any less or hindrance everything, you need to make that pricing stop as quickly as possible. in other words, to defeat the russians. i the chief joke and bring back to our true credit, entire trait on the crate in sovereignty and control several how, how finely balanced is this more in your view? how could things go badly wrong for you credit and what are the possible infection
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points that you've tried, needs to watch for? what do you crash going to continue to defend the russians while continue to months offensive operations? well, they see opportunities as they are indeed mounting some reform all offensive. and the goal in particular has it appears mot with the effective results. so you can go to continue to protect itself protected center of gravity. it's also strength and it's also strength visits people, and it will add its determination the lots made. so lots has also got a protected source of strength, which is, it's a launch cation. i think it ukraine will prevail. i think your credit is prevailing at the moment, but it can, it will only achieve final victory when it has broken through a port of the russian defenses. and in my view from crime. yeah. i'm from those lines of communication, don to crime the,
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making it very impossible for the russian style at all. and that is gonna require a huge amount more effort unless they don't suggest it's not going to be ever with one offensive. i think we have to be ready to support the pregnancy in a series of counter offensive or which are going to require the same level of training equipment. i'm interested in that the launching of the fast defensive for across. so this could run on for time. so the west nature needs the strategic patients to continue to support your grand till the end of the day. you know, how about the possibility? i think it was a, in an article in may that if the west of the supply all the hardware you pay needs now, victory may not be possible. a nice entrance might have to intervene. directing to assure that k f wins. um, do you think that's a real possibility? is that something that nato would have seriously contemplate, that they saw never seriously come to places before the 2014, or even up to 2014,
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an invasion of ukraine by russian nation. i never seriously contemplated the voltage states would be for us and you can never say never a set up for the subject. this was all about it, but it never, you read it. if it really services all it nice, i would. and as a rock that would you your inside you cried. i think you'd have seen a completely different approach to turns back up. i taught. if nation i saw this in 2014 for example. so never roll anything out. um does what is nice? i would gain to have to get involved. i pray not. but if the alternative is a decade of stay on my a decade, all an enormous conferences, a running so in eastern europe, who knows? nature paul might need to get involved in order to swing the balance because that sort of style made a running so in eastern europe along the borders of ukraine is going to be a threat to, to europe in security. and if at the end of the day,
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your pan security is, is threatened, nature of security is trusting, nighttime may have to take action to support your credit. but the way to avoid is that the way to avoid nature engagement is the double don know, and next yeah. on what the crating needs to achieve. victory. but just to follow up on, on how you think this might go. do you think the base or whenever chief consensus on a plan to move in and directly assisting credit in forces with members like 100 off chip. so i kept talking oh, possessing a veto. you think the ever gets together to do that? well, it goes all straighter, is, is no longer made to a number, but no point is absolutely fine. the cost consensus would be incredibly difficult to get concepts that consensus, but as a set of nato moves at the speed of a flyer to ship. and the convoy and if, if the threats is the, is the circumstances of i'm not clear and not the moment,
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but who knows antonio's time. things may well have changed and, and if it needs to nice or we'll get that. you've told him some of your interviews about a war last thing 2 to 3 years. no quick fixes. is that a danger that over such a long periods that it will result as globalized? it drops from the headlines. people get bored, they lose the fighting spirit. money dries up on the priorities begin to dominate. is that a possibility in this instance to think? absolutely, absolutely, and that's exactly what i'm worried about. the west losing interest, the west losing momentum, the west losing 5 coast nights. i may say, oh i'm is they tied defense forces not building themselves up. suffice without being built off to face those. right? absolutely. that's my concern. but the with, as i said, i that with an election the next year in america, will america continue to provide that enormous capability?
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and that's something we got to watch. and it comes back to my point about the way to make sure that ukraine achieves its picture as quickly as the double dawn of what it needs. now, in order to avoid that long running, long running on sale, next. do for see what kind of your do you 4 see coming out of this or it's, it's not going to be the same. is it? nothing is ever going to be the same again after this, what changes? everything changes, doctrine, it changes, hope, perception of security in your doesn't it, i think very still saw it very still in your, among european countries a lingering feel that somehow we can go back to some sort of stage of the quote to, with russia that is not going to happen. what ever happens? yeah, let's assume your credit achieves. that's been the true objective. let's assume the guns bull silent. the veterans, some as a result of 5 of the russians was running a white flag, all the novices or something and the ukrainians able are able to, to,
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to liberate as much of the country as will allow them. the security of, of, i was not looking for that is not going to stop russia about russian dissolved under what a leader is in the kremlin. russia will continue to want to eliminate ukraine from a map. it's built into russian dna that ukraine cannot exist as a, as a country. there is no such thing as a separate nation or culture of ukraine. and that means that ukraine has got to become part of no time. and that means, but in order to protect and they try to protect your protect the laws, protect the crane nights i was going to establish a bond of the tyrants, deal around around eastern europe between 2 due grand mall drive of georgia. maybe even one day by the rest uh, to protect against a russian because what we're witnessing is the decline of the russian. and this is going to play out over the decades to com. it's not
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a bit of an over and done with the quickly. it's yours of my grandchildren, 100 based pricing goes challenge. and so the only way to maintain peace in your loan is through an effective nato to turn so that instead of change the change but dynamic and economically, financially, the way your does is business. i think the patio is completely dropped out, but that's my view of the way things are going to happen. do something very dr. of new care to tone subscribes to survive this conflict. now the russians being waving gets nukes and all faces. and how are we going to see it when they have a nuclear arm states doing the same thing, whatever they want, something that to we won't get home as. yeah, i mean, i think you're going to be really careful about us as assuming, but somehow because we've got, you're right in this country we've, we've got pricing to an end to come dropped into continental villa sickness. all that is going to credibly rushing aggression to the tire effectively. you need to be able to deter at every level of symmetric, conventional,
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tactical nuclear, all the way out the scale. i think for the foreseeable future, russia of course, will post a new friend. the way to to the target is to have effective new political turns, as well as conventional the turns by the way, to and showed up a new class. the nuclear saber rattling is, is, in a sense rendered um, meaningless is through effective conventional to tire detox because of russia thinks that it can get away with nuclear black mile 'vette. it won't try that. and if you have effective the terms on every level, it wouldn't be able to provide the big a problem, the west to show that it listens to nuclear blackmail. it's been listening to what the crime in the sentence it's, it's turned on its rhetoric. it hasn't given you credit, the weapons that need it listens to nuclear back ma'am. and that makes it valuable
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to basically like north korea, doesn't it? well, let's just back to my point about self deterrence and a not cooling pritchens month. i mean, let's be clear and the sort of new saber rattling is really, really dangerous. uh, but yeah, the west needs to be absolutely unequivocal. and i'm shoulders the top of, i mean, i think we have to not upset and of course is that there is communication between america and russian. up there is communication between certain, all the native capitals and russia. i'm absolute this out and that the message has been played out very powerfully. but if there is in the fall of nuclear uh new to release time to come over. otherwise, russia can expect us off a massive pain conventionally as a result. but the wesley stickler determined about that. so richard sheriff, we run out of time, unfortunately. thank you very much for being on complex. so thank you for having me . thankful for your time. thank you. the
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the,
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to the points. strong opinions, clear position. international perspective. ukraine says it's counter offensive is making games with autism. approaching the clock is ticking. and meanwhile, russia is also facing grey of shortages. could north korean holster rushes military? find out on to the point to the point in 30 minutes
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