the, the young people clearly have the solution. the future is 77 percent. every weekend on the w, the ukraine says it's counter offensive is gaining momentum and won't slow down even when bad weather hits. but a top us general says the window for success is closing with autumn, just weeks away. versus james haven't come easy. defenses are deep ukraine's forces have had to pick their way through mine fields and type stitches and take a considerable casualties underway. western experts say they've shown courage and adaptability, but will need more weapons to keep up the progress. meanwhile, pretends army is under pressure facing shortages of men and munitions. one reason

why an unusual meeting and rest as far east made worldwide headlines were asking ukraine's counter offensive is north korea bolstering versus military the hello and welcome to to the point. it is a pleasure to create our guest. sarah toggling is program director at germany's curb of foundation and has also worked with the german council on foreign relations as an expert on russian for and security policy. alexa, you so boston heads, the russian program at germany is frequent a bad foundation. and my colleague roman bunch of us works for the russian and ukraine desk here at dw. and i'd like to start out if i may, with a look at where things stand on the battlefield in ukraine and roman. i'd like to

begin with you if i may. ukrainian leaders are sounding quite a bit more optimistic now than they were earlier in the summer. do you share that positive outlook? so i would be cautiously optimistic. indeed. we've seen in the past few weeks that the ukraine and offensive has been more successful than during the whole summer, especially in the south. but i think it's too early to say that the you that this, this will continue at the same pace. this is what you can, is hoping for, but there are several difficulties. so your brain is trying to still trying to conceal where the major blow will be. because as soon as you're creating and forces assembly. ready and it's, it's troops in one place. russia is immediately hitting them with rockets with a, with ashcroft. and that is why your crime is trying to disperse it's, it's a, it's a, it's forces and is trying to,

to these guys where the major blow will be as upset. and that is why it's one of the reasons. and of course, there are of those reasons, like the mind feels who have been talking all summer about and the weather is changing and it is autumn. it is the full beginning. so that's why you're crying and troops do kind of forces are under pressure. but in general, i would say we can be costly, cautiously optimistic of the moment. thank you very much moment and excuse me, i misspoke when i introduced here. so i do apologize for that. let me go to sarah now and where it's like slog or grind. those are the kind of descriptions we're hearing when it comes to this inch by inch combat that the ukrainian forces are undertaking. how significant would you say the gains are that has been made recently in the counter offensive? and how great is the pressure on rushes defenses? so the gains that we have seen probably within the last one or 2 weeks, i think are the most profound gains. probably not in terms of territory because

we're still talking about rather small space that is quite in congress. but it's strategically important because they basically broke through quite important and quite strong the russian defense lines, but are assumed at the moment. it's too early to say is this is, this is for each, if this is really a break through, so something that can lead to greater ukrainian games. i think that will be, that will probably be visible within maybe the next one or 2 weeks. also because as you said before, time's running up when item comes to town, got really, really muddy. so ukraine really has to do something now. and alex h, a talk to us a little bit about the, the status and situation of russian forces their fighters at the front are said to have been there for very long periods of time awaiting replacements that don't show up. and there's also apparently shortages of crucial weapons like tanks and also munitions. how grave is all of that will put in be worried?

well, the military commander simply busy with keeping down the lines and keeping position, but it's to be honest, it's much easier if you compare the tall which is being taken on the people. but also on the realtor. resources is much easier to defend and russian, russian, and forces has had a lot of time to entrench. and so even the advances that side of us talking about not yet are something where you could talk about the paradigm shift. russia is in the strategic defense, are talking about the metals, the metal space since many months. and this hasn't changed and it's easier to maintain this position. and also if you look at what's the government and the military command to undertake in terms of recruitment and replenishment, it seems to work with our major mobilization waves. i mean, we don't need to take numbers for granted that have been translated by the official sources. but it is clear that replenishing the fighters is not as complicated as it seemed to be half

a year ago. i want to come back to that in just a moment because that recruitment drive is taking rusher quite far afield. but 1st, let's take a closer look at the status of the counter offensive itself in ukraine, as we heard from sarah autumn means rain, mud, and cold temperatures. will they stall the countries forces as they seek to break through russian lines? a gift for the russians, they shout at fire a mortar shell. ukraine is reporting successes on the eastern and southern front. further areas are said to have been recaptured at defense lines broken. but in small risky steps, the area is mind. autumn will soon turn the solid ground to the front into mud, and it will be enormous pressure on the soldiers be offensive success, according to military, experts will depend on reserves. that is the number of soldiers ukraine will still be able to mobilize. these students and kia have signed up for military training

after 4 years, so that they can become officers and the ukrainian army. but how many new soldiers can be sent directly to the front is on clear. and to win the war. ukraine is asking for one thing above all, we need more heavy, heavy weaponry. and again, heavy weaponry is ukraine running out of time? and roman, if, if i may, it, was you koreans, chief of military intelligence who actually spoke the statement that i quoted earlier saying that you, crane's going to press ahead with this counter offensive no matter what the weather does, do you think that is feasible or is he simply bluffing to lower and then sending me more out. so of course it is feasible. look um there will be of course, a slow down due to the weather conditions. but um, it will probably last

a few weeks uh through november, maybe in into december. but then um, waive the temperature is below 0. um we, we can expect um, a defined thing to continue. and we've seen that and in the past. yeah. so we've seen that especially the russian forces. i had some advantage during the winter and take would recapture towns like solid or and laser buff mode. so if the russian can can do it, ukrainians can do it as well. so i expect it just, it may be a short pause, a short slowing down. but on the other hand, look at the fighting now is mostly done by ukrainian infantry. ukraine is not in sending over all the heavy weapons that didn't go from, from western countries in the past months in, in spring like um, main bundled tags on other heavy with the vehicles on the front so you can't use them saving them. and the reason is because russia has been very successful at

destroying those pieces very, that you can't, has only dozens of them and, and they're very valuable for the ukranian army. so you, craig is trying to send the infantry in, and that's why it is so slow. but on the other hand, mont is not a big problem for infantry. so if you're attacking, i do not expect, maybe it may just load on slow down of the okay. and then defensive. you mentioned the recapture that occurred last winter. let's say that ukraine does succeed in breaking through and taking some of the area. the areas in town is currently occupied by russia. would it have enough forces to hold them once once it had them briefly, if you would as well. yes, i think the most important thing for your brain is to move about 15 to 20 kilometers to what stacy all of us off to what's crimea and being there, or you can will be able to shoot to, to put under and of hillary file. the very important road connecting to mainland

joshua with crime. yeah. and this is the goal of ukraine and armed forces at the moment. thank you. roman and a sarah retired us general david betray us recently told darcia avella that it would be key for ukrainian forces. and this is something that roman just mentioned to break the line of communication that connects russia through south eastern ukraine with the forces that are north of crimea. so can you talk a little bit about crying? the is cry, media in the end, essentially crucial to, to what happens in the further pursuit of this war. it is going to cause it is to teach equally important and that to the opinions as well as to the russians. because 1st um, crime yeah. is used as inquiry door or logistical court, or for the russian armed forces to get them like soldiers, but also military or sources military equipment through the or on the bridge of

courage. so this is really important. on the other hand, from, from your rush, i can also strike quite deep into a crate insured tori. and the 3rd factor is that it hosts russia as black see fleet, and thereby is able to control or the black sea and also ukrainians, green exports, fly out the black sea. so for the russians is really crucial. and on the other hand, that's right for the crane is crucial, because if they can fit the russians to the can, that can hit their other logistical corey doors that can hit their black see fleet . and this is really important. so that's why chrome. yeah, it's really one of the spots of hot spots of these more i want to talk about the black. see if we didn't just a moment, but a quick follow up question to you. could you imagine that within the next 6 weeks before autumn hits that we would see significant progress by the ukrainian forces in terms of breaking through the supply lines that do connect russia to, to korea?

or to be honest, i am, i am skeptical because i don't say that is like impossible, but it will be a heart task to do basically because with the breaches that we see at the moment within the russian defense lines, ukraine has to widen them to secure their for, to secure the appraisal flags. and ukraine has to, you know, hold these breeches and the spare house within the russian defense lines. and then for like, pushing to fast forward come the risk of, you know, secure and these bad spare house long. so i'm, so i see here that it's a strategic choice that you created house way probably doing both will be very, very hard. and alexa, in fact, ukraine recently launched a major attack on the crime in ports the best of all, which is the vase for russia's black c suite. how significant is that? could that prove a turning point?

well, it certainly complimentary to what sorta is describing. so if you kind of physically be in range of direct artillery fire, but you can use medium or longer range weapons to actually put crimea notes or installations, independence a lot in danger. then you circumvent the difficulties of actually advancing, but you put immediate and direct pressure on the russian presence on dependence also is the highest and bullet coming from you is deemed authentication is core land. it's a different status that you can see between crime you and the newly annex territory . so i think that the slower or the advance and the more complicated it might get, the more important the parts where. and this was the quote you've showed the heavy weaponry miss files munition, which is needed to sustain the pressure without being able to physically come closer to crimea. crimea is the punching back. the more pressure is applied, then we'll all use it. is that the war does not progress according to the russian scenario. so it's very cool. mm hm. and roman,

the ukraine military took the unusual step of acknowledging of, of openly claiming to be responsible for that strike on the semester for what does that tell us? why did they you, generally, they don't issue such attributions. why did they do it in this case? and what does that strike itself tell us about key of missile compete capabilities? so i think one of the reasons, maybe they're very proud of it, and these are indeed a very unusual events that they've seen in the past few weeks. just remember, um we, we, that was a, a drawing attack on, uh, russian, minnesota base. uh, any ups calls on the nav field where and lodge a f, a transport us an insurance of 76 were destroyed russian. beverly needs them to move troops around with just a few days ago, and as we speak russia and was attacked and crimea and the occupies crimea, i am,

the big ship was destroyed, or at least heavily damaged. and for the 1st time, a submarine, somebody. and that was used to launch missiles on ukraine in 10 or 3. it is a very big successful your crime. and you can also destroyed the russian onto aircraft s 400 system just a few weeks ago. and the reports not confirmed yet, as we speak day, they managed to distort a 2nd one. and you know, your front door. yeah. so these shows that ukrainian and is maybe not so successful as everybody expected on the battlefield on the front line. but on the other hand, deep inside russian territory ukrainian is need, is supporting more and more pressure on the russian army. and this will be just a matter of time when, when the russian troops on the battle ground will will feel it. mm hm. and sarah, clearly ukraine was the, i'd like to be able to do more such attacks because in fact for months now it's been pressing the us to deliver army tactical,

long range missile systems. president biden is said to be just a few days away from deciding would that be a game changer for this for no, i don't think so. is on the specific weapon system that we have been talking about within the last month is not a game changer in itself. we rather have to understand it as a possible where we have different pieces of puzzle we need to put together for, you know, supporting ukraine in a way that it can actually win this war. and i think these long range rapids like the american ones, like also the german towers are part of this possible. so i would say there's been ongoing debate for some time now about whether a boost in western support. a real boost would actually help bring this war to a quicker end, or whether it might provoke put in to escalate what's your take on that? well, as i think, so what is a real boost, right? there is so much discussion about the definition of real. it's real,

the support is real. the question is a distribution over limited resources over time, right? so there are 2 schools. so thinking the one is the one you're referring to saying, let's put everything we have and can immediately activate to give to you, create the emphasis on the table and give it to them now. so that there is a quick and to this phase of the military confrontation. and then there is a thinking school thinking, saying this is going to be a long thing. so you need to project this over time over the x of time, which then links back to millet industrial capabilities of sustaining. so it doesn't make sense just to give a weapon system and not being able to arm it in a matter of weeks. but also looking back to popular support in the european, especially in europe in context. we have you have connections upcoming next year. so there are 2 schools and thinking i don't know which one is correct and the history will show. and this is the tragic thing that it's, it's unclear whether it would be better what, what is clear for me is that the thinking about the depth of support. so not just talking about the weapon system, but actually talking about what does it mean,

industrially speaking, logistic just beating that this technology will be used by ukraine of a long period of time. and i lack this debate because debate about domestic capabilities. the bit of a long term investment i mean, is going on, but it's not as and the focus is, you know, this little bit of traditionally is ation of a specific weapon. has a little bit of a window of, of a face to it. i don't like it to be honest. you, let's switch tracks now and talk a little bit more about what russia might need to keep going. and sir, if i, if i can start with you. apparently, russia has been trying to recruit reinforcements from places as far away as central asia, armenia cause ex, done, and even from cuba, how grave are the shortages that rest is facing? not only of men, but also if munitions. i don't think that the shortages are great or really hindering the russian, the worship warfare and ukraine. however, i think the russian regime has a problem. we have seen that within the mobilization ways that we've seen last year,

that maybe didn't cause a position or widespread po, test in the russian in russian society. but it or something like maybe like on rest or people worrying, definitely record and that's, that's something that the russian really wants to prevent because it wouldn't basically, once it's double lies, its power. so it has to find ways to, to get soldiers into recruit soldiers without causing this wide spread or varying among the russian population. i think, you know, looking in more, more regions far away from the centers located in other countries offering a lot of money or measures to really prevent this kind of, you know, people boring inside rush, i think. so that's this kind of measure. and that's of course, a hard thing to do because in neat soldiers. well, you don't want to make too much fuss about it. but i think so far, it works quite well for the russian regime. and so it might not be enough for

a new offensive. but it's enough for the defense if the russian forces are in at the moment. so given these constraints that russia is facing, the recent meeting between put in a north korean dictate or kim joan, on has certain way attracted world wide attention. kim travelled for 2 days in his private honored train for his 1st visit was put in in 4 years. russia's bus stops, and the cause of the drum or space center was the backdrop for warm professions or friendship that included kim's declaration of support. for what he called russia's sacred fight. what that support might entail in material terms remain unclear, but put in did acknowledge the prospect of military cooperation. and most likely it was no coincidence that the korean delegation included high level military and unisons industry representatives. so let me go to roman and ask you how worried should kids be? so i'm give, shouldn't be of all right, worries, of course. because um, um,

when russia is getting more munition, we don't know. we speculate about that. it is of course, a problem for the pregnant forces. i don't think russia is in much need, but probably the roster is planning had for the next year and then it could be a problem for the russian. i'm and not at the moment. i think it looks like a russia is preparing also for, for the, for the case that you can, will get the long range weapons like a tak a mass we've been talking about. and in that case, ukraine will intensify its attempts to destroy the russian munition, to oppose. this is one of the rest and precision mess with weapons mostly used for . so you're brand new, striking, very targeted, the russian emanation, deposed. and this is where the all the administering is goes up, and that's why they need or punishment. one more thing is that i probably, i guess, my guess is that maybe they were also talking about the labor force from north

korea. because a russia, russian economy is suffering from a huge shortages of labor, a lot of men are fighting millions left the country who did not want to flies and they need to be replaced and present. booting is very much a guy not to let the russian economy sofa. so she, she will be looking for opportunities to get labor force somewhere, probably enough career. so a comment on that also, uh if you would. and in fact, russia has already receiving supplies from another pariah states, namely, iran. do you think north korea will be added to the list and will it make a difference for russia? i think it looks like it. and i think as it is possible for the west and ukraine to put together ukraine's, i'm luxurious or it says, it's also a puzzle for russia they have or like they have an industrial production. for

example, if i'm human ition, that is high, but that is not really sufficient in the long term and they have problems meeting their goals, but doesn't mean that they are really short of it is also, you know, it's also a lift for them. and i think north korea, but also around are for russia, a puzzle, a piece of puzzle that they need to release as tate in their military efforts. and i think it's, it's no surprise and both are uh for various states. cuz if you're a states planning to deliver up hands to russia, you face heavy, west and sanctions. but if you're a country like north korea around and you're already heavily sanctions, that probably is not something that really it prevents you from doing. so let me ask, i would say to a comment on those 2 to some degree, potentially contradictory aspects of this because these are 2 of the most isolated, heavily sanctioned leaders in the world put in. and kim, even put in acknowledge that if they try to do business with each other, they're going to be certain restrictions as they put it. so what kind of support

would even be feasible here? i mean, i think the real contradiction is here, that north korea's not just on the sanction is just sanctioned. it's under sanctions that were co voted for by russian. so you see it's, it's, it's a different scenario now. and i think for a long time of career didn't have anything to offer even the labor contingents that were sometimes spotted in different projects. it's, it's not think significant upgrade was a trouble for the russian federation and they followed the chinese lead. so if the china wants to sanction north korea, they are for it. if there is a face of better relations, thrush has supported it for the 1st time. in the common history of modern russia, there was a joint interest significantly has something to offer. this hasn't been the case and this has munition enough to read by the way isn't as a special place both in the chinese but also in the north korean military logic. so they actually have something to offer. and of course, they have a lot to,

to ask for, and russia could deliver quite some things way below the levels which are relevant for actual technological sanctions. so, so a bottom line, our title asked whether north korea will bolster military of, of russia's military. some observers say short term may be, but this is not a game changer. would you agree? yeah. and let me ask sarah, do you think that ultimately there are also systemic implications here that for some parias states coming together, will that in effect mix sanctions less effective going forward? no, i think the practice different sections rather depends on the you know, how much west and states really implement and follow up best thing she has. i think this is a much more important factor. he and that's something that we see is not really working as a church and very quickly back to roman roman north korean supports a game changer. no, no, no word. thank you very much to you. roman for being with us and also to our guest

here in the studio. sarah alex a and thanks to all of you for tuning in, look at our website, check it out. and so tell us what you think the,

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