they help us solve the enlightenment says, progresses in our hands, and that means so is request. it's up to us how significant of the beginning of madana c and the series of the great philosophers to our present and future. our series project in line to minutes tops of type. this is on d. w. the, the conflict began in 2014 when russia took the crimea. now ukraine is trying to re take the russian occupied peninsula for moscow station. it's lexi suite to create a tax, military targets there almost on a daily basis. overall, the premium counter offensive is progressing slowly. in his recent visit to the west, president's valencia appear to have gotten a commitment by the us government for the delivery of attack them's missiles, which the premium army can use to attack more targets in crimea. and the 1st

american abrams tax already arrived in ukraine. so onto the point we ask us to attack them. some missiles and abrams tags is russia losing crime. you the welcome to this week's to the point i'm have you know, yeah that's, it's good to have you with us and i'm joined by this week's guest catherine cuba. ashbrook is a german american political scientist and a senior adviser for germany's that. it's my cell nation to mess of eguard as a journalist, specializing in international defense and security policy, and ben hodges, former commander, us army, europe, and chairman of the globe sex future security and defense council. so all of you welcome to thank you very much for being with us and someone's i'd like to start with you because we're constantly trying to assess the state of this war. claim

here seems to be an increasingly frequent target for the ukraine in military. and they now seem to have hit the russian lexi fleet severely. how significant is that? that's pretty significant. it shows the ability of ukrainians to head targets and crime. yeah. especially the headquarters of the russian sleep there. and the so you, ukraine makes clear, it's villing and able to hit the target there and going forward. are chief military progress with the help of western weapons, or is this new, or is this something that has been possible before it has been positively before, but the scale is becoming different? obviously it's not really confirmed, the value is protection stall and the shadow cruise missiles to hit this headquarters. this means that those a long range weapons from the west to well make a difference. catherine,

ukraine claims to have killed rushes. lexi fleet, commander, how credible are these reports and does it make a difference moving forward in this? what do you think? do you have a crystal ball? i think we would let us have one additional really difficult. i think even for journalists, you know, on the ground to confirm what the reality is. i mean, we have, we're in the middle of information. we're all the same. the russians have posted not one, but now 2 videos of this admiral sort of seemingly alive and well, who knows when these are dated, etc, etc. if in fact, the attack, you know, if we were talking about injury personnel, and if this admiral, in fact was killed, if it would be a huge hit on russian morale. and of course, that's why you see the information war ramp up the way it has on the russian side. and it also has of tactical and answer of strategic uh, implications as well. it would demand a re ordering of some of the command structure out of semester pull. if it is a, it would be a very significant hit. can we confirm this independently at this moment in time?

no, we cannot. there's always some very, very difficult. now, been ukraine is trying to, so the idea very clearly that the country offensive is going well. but we've also seen significant russian attacks, especially on the port city of odessa. how are things looking for the russian army? from your perspective, i would hate to be a russian private sitting in a trench right now. no one did. i have a terrible logistic system behind me. and commanders don't care about me. and looking at ukraine every week, increasing in its capability was 54 nations supporting it. the, the attacks that you're describing that have happened against the crimea, or part of discount or offensive the counter offensive is so much more the than just the ground to solve what's happening with the trenches and demand fields. that's an important part, but it's only a part ukrainian general staff is conducting what nato calls and when the us calls

multi domain operations, where you integrate the effect of land, sea air, cyber information, special forces. so this hit on the headquarters was not just a coincidence. this is the result of intelligence, sabotage, commando, rage destroying radar. the hit on the, on the dry dock and some estoppel which is a very important hit because it destroyed maintenance capability as well as the submarine and to ship. and then the headquarters in katherine is exactly right. it's not so much the loss of a commander whether or not they are most killed. he can be replaced, much more difficult to, to replace 30 staff officers. i mean, that is a real hit on the ability of the black safely. so finally, this is about making crimea untenable for russian forces, the air force,

the navy logistics, make it untenable as a necessary step to liberating from you, or that might come at a very high human cost. if we believe the russian side, i'm just going to confirm you with this. the russian defense minister said that only in september that the ukrainian army had $17000.00 casualties. what do you make of these types of statements as well? first of all i, the kremlin would be the last us or so i would use for any information, but there is no doubt the train is, is suffering casualties. of course they are. but imagine the human cost. if russia wins, i mean that you craniums know they are fighting for their survival as a nation, as a state. and they literally are trying to protect their families. so that the number you decided that's about the number of ukrainian children who have been deported out of ukraine into russia. so i think ukrainians are not going to stop. they definitely say so, and some experts agree they need to because this war will probably be here to stay

. and that resistance and a constant supply of munition or decisive. that's why the ukranian president traveled to north america to seek wider support for his defense. but things weren't as easy as last time, or don't be fooled by the hugs and smiling faces. let them your zalinski was hard at work during his trip to north america, gathering military and political support from the global community. he gave a passionate speech at the un, followed by a frustrating encounter with the security council. from there you travel to washington dc where he was welcome to the white house and then made a quick stop to canada. join you move up to date, defense minister room or of delivered an important report. the 1st american made abrams tanks are already in ukraine. we are preparing them to reinforce our actions against the occupiers, and it will be a significant reinforcement. we are also working to get all the other weapons capabilities we need, you know, growing you must louis this statement could be alluding to further weapon

deliveries from the united states, which is apparently prepared to deliver attack ends. these missiles are capable of flying up to 300 kilometers with this weapon system, be a game changer in the war against russia. and catherine watching that. what do you make of sa lensky is trip and his ability to gather more support, more money, more weapons, and more sanctions live as an washer to you at the same time as you create a new president. and uh, i can tell you that, that it was a decided as decidedly mixed residence out of is because in as much as he talked to republican lawmakers on the hill quite aside from the congressional speed. we see now that ukraine is becoming a political play ball, not just to get ahead of the 2024 elections and the 2nd republican debate. we had them last couple of hours. but as a matter of course, in the actual debate of whether we can keep the american government open and functioning, kevin mccarthy, the leader of the house republicans, is pinning his own political fortune on whether or not the $25000000000.00

a power $24000000000.00 a $1000000000.00 a package is going to be in what, senate and congress a senate and house actually sit down to negotiate on a, to, to keep the us government open. and i think that's as a very dangerous signal. that puts should put all the rest of the western alliance on alert that these issues around uh, consistent americans support won't just come to haunt us, come the election in 24 by could become a very vala tiled moment in the continuous sea of the western alliance. far earlier and that not everything of course can be decided in the white house. how significant would it be if there is not, not less than, let's say, let's not say no support but less support for the training army coming closer ukrainians are dependent on west on supplies. it relates to municipal for auto memory, but it also relates to new weapon systems. we've talked about the, we've seen the a tech on this, but the problem is,

i'm not sure whether to enroll bend has an idea which worse and what will be delivered. let's talk about the 300 kilometer range of the at tech m, as in the usual version. but there's also talk of the cluster munitions of words which has much less wage. what the ukraine needs is eunice and weapon systems with a long range. so the details of will make a difference. i'm going to test that question specifically to ben ben at just to just start with the 2 weapon systems that we've talked about so far. i'm from costa rica country with no army. could you explain to viewers were maybe not acquainted with weapon systems? what difference does it make for ukraine to have se abrams tax to? well, the abrams tank itself, it's the best tank in the world of german leo pard, is exceptional. the british challenge are, these are very good systems, but what matters most are the people inside the tank and then how these things are

actually employed. i'm sure the ukrainians will make good use of the abrams. there's enough for one battalion, 31 tanks and a you know, you create in tank battalion, so i'm sure they also will protect the location and time of their deployment employment until they're, they're ready as well. but, you know, 31 tanks is not going to change the outcome of the war, but it obviously is going to help. so, you find however, i seems to say that that it will change or it will be decisive. let's talk about the attack comes missiles, then to my side. ukraine has been asking for them for months and months. will that really change the course of your? well, 1st of all, we have to say there is no real single weapon system, which will be a game changer that has to be in and when we talked about the tang, so when we talk about the far distance besides systems, every single boat contribution but it's not

a single system which will completely lead to a different outcome of the war as to the whole system has been put into multi domain operations every single self importance. and when we talk about the tech comes, it's again, it's a we which of ukrainians want. and which will make a difference if they get longer and to us. what exactly, militarily, what that implied to have this long range. this would mean that the ukraine is, would be able to read logistic lines, supply points combined centers, all this stuff, way beyond the range they have at the moment. so when we look at the cry, me very is a lot of possible targets for these long range buttons. there's also applies to the discussion about drawing crews. my thoughts, a towel goes, it's sort of us to part of which we have seen what wouldn't have been possible with

all this long range systems. and also we're talking about the couch bridge, which is a sharp point for the supply of crimea. ukraine is able to read this pretty until destroyed this little really would make a difference. okay, and we've seen your cranes allies, very reluctant to deliver these types of weapons. do you think it has to do with the fact that they would go into territory that ukraine didn't have control of that and just a year ago? well, here's the thing that, you know is a sort of cut of what a should a piece. i mean, we've seen this now what, what irritates me, and i think many of us look at this very closely is the fact that we don't seem to be learning out of our debates around when weapons are delivered in the kind of sequencing. and conversely, the kind of trusts that we can put in the ukrainians a to last mentioned, the cluster of munitions. you know, the americans didn't deliver cluster munitions, quite independently of, of attack them's delivery system. but until they had written guarantees by the

ukrainians and that off the ukrainians are using that kind of munition system very effectively. we need to be supporting the ukrainians, such that they can have agility, such that they can have independence and their decision making and such that we trust their tactical ambitions. and this is where we're having difficulties across the trans atlantic device. the americans feel that there should have been a slightly different tactical approach taken, but this is why the sequencing of those, the landscape visit plus those of us to pull attack. technically, you should offer a very powerful political arguments in washington, at least in the defense circles. because it proves that they can use the british and french system is very effectively to the i'm vision of what the americans have actually laid out. you know, the americans have been very skeptical of effectively this, you know, this east and southern flag, the fight around vast moods. the americans would have rather seen a surge into the south outright. it would have cost a lot of ukrainian lives within a very difficult to hold domestically. but that's what kind of work we need to be

doing. and fundamentally, we need to learn out of our experience. poor negotiations around the f, 16. general ben has said a number of times we've never send american troops into a land where, like we haven't, without the appropriate air cover, we need to continue to make it flex the make the ukrainian army be flexible and agile. and when i use this word we, i mean the western coalition, which above all needs to stick together. and certainly your brain is trying to make that point as well, especially announcing advances in its counter offensive. after weeks of stalemate on the front, things seem to be going better for your plan. important tactical gains have been made on several fronts and decisive weeks ahead of the european winter. slow and steady is the key concept behind the ukranian counter offensive, which finally managed to break through russia's 3rd line of defense last week. it appears to have worked and torment located in the south east region of that bodies,

yet russia's regional logistical hub. ukraine has also reported success from the fighting around buck flute, but their biggest blow was to russian blacks the fleet headquarters. and so foster paul, where you cream is reporting a desktop of more than 30 russian officers. it's the latest and a growing number of strikes on occupied premier with the objective of making symbolic and strategic games in the peninsula that lives at the heart of the conflict. but can ukraine leverage the success to create a meaningful advantage? or are we approaching another winter of grinding deadlock? and i'm going to test out that question to ben. do you recognize, speaking specifically about the front lines in the south? do you recognize a strategy, whether you're creating and military, or are they just taking whatever as possible? i so this is all about crimea. crimea is the decisive terrain of this war.

ukraine knows, will never be safe and secure, and they'll never be able to rebuild their economy as long as russia occupies crimea. and the russians don't care about don bass, except that that gives them the land bridge that connects roast of down to crime here. so if the right, if the ukrainians are able to liberate crimea, or at least make it untenable, unusable for russian forces, then they're going to win this war. uh, the land component of the counter offensive is aimed at silver rings that land bridge. that's what places like top mark are so important because once i get there and then they can bring up other long range weapons, exactly is trauma said to to be able to go after russian logistics. and once you have separate the land bridge, either by fire or by occupation, then the only thing just left is the courage bridge. and now from a,

a is an a real fix. and so this entire counter offensive is aimed at isolation of crimea making untenable. and eventually liberating it now, long range precision fire or the key here, whether it's in a tech comes or taurus, more storm shadow or scout or the ground launch small diameter bombs, drones, whatever it is. the capability ukrainians need is to be able to pound service stobel the air base it saki, the logistics of the gen cord. and if this is happening 2 or 3 times a day, week after week, there's no way that the russian navy can continue to operate from there. or the air force can operate from there. taking back from you, you can always sounds like such an and vicious goals from us. do you agree that this is a realistic goal that that we could be see? well maybe we should not focus too much on only talking about the military

conquest of crime. yeah. it's always talked about quote, the ukranian army take crime. yeah. i think that's the wrong approach. could be ukrainians, be in a position to fall. so russians to talk about crime. yeah. to, to start to go to us and it's about crime. yeah. i think that's the, the, the realistic point to talk about. i don't think that we'll see the ukrainian tanks rolling down to the coach bridge. that's up the point to do agreement. is that not the points swell? thomas is a journalist. i've respected for years, but of course i completely disagree with him on this. the, the point is not our tank is going to roll down to the courage bridge. the point is, are the russians gonna be forced russian military force to leave crimea, and that is 60, as long as the black sea fleets able to sit there instead of a soho, and they have no problem launching uh, uh,

caliber missiles against training and cities. and the power grid, look i, i overestimated the willingness of the west to provide what was needed, and therefore i projected bedroom premier would be liberated earlier then obviously it's not going to happen that way. my president has got to lay out what our objective is. that's the thing that's missing here. we have the present worth to say. it talk to the american people like they were adults and say look, it's in our interest that you practice successful. it's in our interest that ukraine is able to jack rush her back to the 1991 borders. it's in europe's advantage that this happens, and we want ukraine to win. that's our objective. not this empty. we're with you for as long as it takes. so if we say we walked away and then there's no more excuses about how many attack comes or how long it takes to train the f. 16 pilot, or how much fuel abrams tank burns. and then i think we'll see the bonus counselor

. i agree to provide taurus, i mean they pretty much have said that they'll be no more excuses about taurus as well. the tough and why is it typical to sell to the american people to the american people? because the american people don't generally focus on foreign policy and new crime is a very long a rate you know very far away. but it is remarkable that we've now had 2 primary debates for the republican party where ukraine has launched a major screaming match on a stage of people who would be lining up to possibly be a republican candidate. and it's interesting what general ben just said, because the vice principal of pens again in you who used to be a part of a trump administration where ukraine became a play of all of a 1st impeachment process, yelled exhibit grammar swami in the debate yesterday to say look, you know, we cannot, we cannot lose ukraine to russia. russia will be at our, you know, front door. but what is happening now is that the entire ukraine question is being manipulated, manipulated politically, particularly in the republican party. and exactly,

it is general ben said one would wish then that in the course of a, of a front election year, which will be a difficult moment. also in terms of fuel politics. we have a president that makes these goals exceptionally clear, holds the senate together, and that we're no longer using ukraine question as a political and financial a play ball, which is currently what's happening in domestic politics. and that it's not sidelined and attached to a china question as if the kind of weapon systems were currently at the point. and again, let's underscore that this is an extremely cheap for, for the united states. defending american liberty in ukraine is unbelievably cheap . it's the most efficient and she for the united states has fall in modern times, or has been engaged with in modern times, or. and that's what, that's the narrative it needs to stick to. because what's the wider state? because of course, the systems architecture that we have long built our wealth and security on. and if that becomes increasingly part of a narrative. and if the g o p recognize,

can hold their party's feet to the fire, we'd be in a much better position. is that going to happen? i don't know. it's an extremely volatile situation. politically nightstand you were mentioning the crystal ball before we will have a little bit of time to take a brief look into the future. thomas, there's a lot of talk about the urgency of this country offensive to be successful. whatever that means, by the time the winter starts in europe, do you think that's gonna happen? well, we have to see when winter comes, and before that we have a mock p area which makes any movement on the battlefields, extremely difficult. but it's general ben pointed out in the beginning we talking about the multi dimensional offensive. we are focusing too much on the little territorial gains. so everybody looks at how many villages have been taken, or re taken, or whatever. that's the point. the point is, what's the overall picture? watson, logistic lines. what's the headquarters?

what the company cations. what's the movement of the black sea fleet and all these things? and i think i'm on or on the front line on the, on the different front lines. and then certain villages. yes, this will be a problem. but the overall offensive to go on. general ben, do you agree on that? do you think uh, ukraine is not really running out of time a so many people say i do agree with thomas on this. look, this is the year 2023. so we used to, in the old days and the 18th and 19th century armies would go into winter quarters because they depended on horses and oxen to pull wagons and artillery. and so they could only do campaigns when you head grass available when there's no grass available. cuz when are they going to winter quarters? now, in 2023, of course we can go around the clock every day. but it is

a fact that this part of ukraine, the store when it's where is a very nasty type of mode, so it will restrict some ground movement, but ukrainians know they cannot. they cannot hesitate at all. they cannot give the russians one day to try and strengthen defences or regroup resupply, rebuild their formations. so i anticipate that they will maintain pressure using a multi dimensional, multi domain approach, and not give the russians any chance. we'll see how that goes. so that's all the time we have for this edition up to the point. thank you to all 3 of you and especially for you for watching. remember that he can always watch our youtube videos as well. just look for d w use and the turns to the point. so i'll see you next time. thank you. good by the

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