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tv   Conflict Zone  Deutsche Welle  October 5, 2023 10:30am-11:00am CEST

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the state, why is there another way officer rules, the environment is not responsible. make up your own mind. d. w. made for mines. the. i worry about the will of a west to continue to do what needs to be done. strong words from my desk this week data is full, the deputy supreme commander of your so richard sheriff, there is still in your, among european countries a lingering feel that somehow we can go back to some sort of states as cro and to with russia. that is not going to happen. so what does he think will happen? so the lobbying prospect soon focus is allowed wake up, go to europe and america general. so they said, sheriff, welcome to come think so. thank you very much and just bear with me here. you've
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kind of jumped up some successes on the battlefield in recent weeks. i've actually taken back control of drilling platforms now in the black sea. i've been on it if you could give us an idea of some of the, of the scale of the challenges k of now faces in order to make further advances. i think it would be really difficult to overestimate the challenge. i mean, the brand is, uh, uh, ranged against what a stablish russian defenses other options have, have time to begin. they know by digging in they've got in probably by the book of the credit is gonna break it into that very, very well accepted, defensive design breakthrough. it's going to take, don, mine feels like go to us. they've gotta keep with the significance. i'll talk to the risk incoming file. they've got a breakthrough, and then they got a break out and they got to do all of this without proper eye cover. uh, without
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a superiority which no nature allow me, would consider to identify what that doing as well. no, no, so i'm a full stop has done a prize. i'm just to go crossing in really difficult circumstances. you know of the day. so i'll be with the exception of the u. s. codes because even take this long cut it and it's cutting it back out and falls. oh, i think i think it is. i think, okay, any nice i well, i mean, but, but the, so as far as to high intensity, come back on pricing would be, would be prepared to take this on, but not with our, an extraordinary amount of time preparation, training, and building up the equipment building are kind of national during your time in a sense it is is this as well? um, i mean the, the, the conversation did in 91 was to break for the rocky defensive position, but it was on a post. so it was pretty easy. guy never has done this since the 2nd world war in your most i was always of sped, j is on counter insurgency in places like iraq,
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as you mentioned, that kind of stuff. so they're not exactly used to defending against a huge invasion. but your emphasis and the last few months has been on telling them that they should is that which i think is going to happen. i think it's nice to have is digital russia. long term nature is going to be printed prepared for the worst case, which has to be prepared to fight russia. we have major armies of golf. i've got to put the conference agency mindset behind them and we can talk about. so there is an understanding of time constituted combat operations, which was the underpinning of national armies during the cold war. now that's going back a very long time. i've started a new generation, have got to find ways to do as the exact same of sleet of foot to resubmit it as if we've seen the it's members. zombies have spent a few days in latvia training where someone just realized that level of data
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personnel speak the same language with the same degree of proficiency, nevermind type job. so the 3 out of $24.00, but his big military vehicles broke down on the boat. the way it's not impressive is at the moment as well. they say, i mean i remain a sign of nice i, but you have to recognize it was nice that it takes time that it's a consensus organization i added it's got to be able to is it has to move at the speed of a flight ship in the convoy, i mean, coming back to your fast, they're all tempted and that's the strategic point, your tactical points that you're talking about. well, that's what exercises are for the test to get it right until during this time, right? things are going wrong. and so you can put them, right, they say fleets of thoughts made so multinational operations, at least it's the but it needs to hurt and it's capability and it's still higher. and it's capability by training. and it's a can do that and really pursue the, the to see, right? so then span it can, it can build the big begin to build up that to turn capability that is needed for
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that side of that. so i was now, i went all the way more than 18 months into the largest live boy you have since the 2nd world war. shouldn't things be going a little better these days? alright, and might just saying things going wrong, the better for me to stop and brought from us, but i mean, we need to recognize this more didn't begin in february 20 uh, february 2022. it began in, in, in, in march 2014 mazda brought when russia, i've talked to prime argue play february 2014. when it's a nice kind that i just made. so how it works or not, but i'm, and really puts it in place. the measures required to build up its high intensity capability. a, we might not be where we are, be your brain might pop by re, by, well, anyway, factors, we all, what we also want so showed us to the grind started make it happen, drive home, and you can't afford not to do that sort of thing. so i'm with you completely. last year, a study as parameters, the car callous of all the data is previous plans for defending the baltic states.
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a country with basic therapy wiped out of the map by a russian, a box, tomatoes, extensive planning stuff over the years of the cold war as increase based stock post the day. well, that's exactly why i write my book, the russia higher highlights, or the french to the baltic states written as a wake up cool to get. and they started thinking about what it would do because our car tell us was absolutely right. that if the russians attacked, it would have presented and they, so with the 2 options, one, right? by accept number 2 months, a massive invasion of the whole 6 states to reach out to them. and so it is absolutely right. no, i'm not privy to the planning, but nature is putting in place extensive plans to defend nay to entire truth, which is exactly what it should be doing. but at the same time it's one thing to put a plans in place. it means the means to protect and comes, brings us back to building up. data is the tire and capability. and that means
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focusing on high intensity conflict on the capability is required for high intensity conflict. it also means providing the cash to do that stuff. that is, i mean, you've got the 3 largest economies in may say you've got from germany, and it's only still don't paying 2 percent of g d, p to most defense. so what kind of signal does that send to the cabinet? like a wireless? it's under say that's, that's a pretty ball 2nd, a lot of pain. let's look at the positives last. i'm in the positives of countries like highland absolutely building up. it's kind of going to say go the voltage sides started a lot the see right now. likewise, of course that guys are not saying not. i was in the czech republic recently, project republic, already putting the money while they're in boxes and building up that capabilities is that you're absolutely right. countries like germany, italy, france, not yet beginning to spend the 2 percent of g d p. indeed, the german defense budget for trying to trying to treat is not that it was for 2022
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. what sort of signal does not said, what does that tell you about the cycle? so i can vendor this cycle moments of grades change when johnny was going to guarantee 2 percent of g d p. yeah, on yeah, in defense, i would also not just like i wouldn't let but and also the whole kinds of, i mean bridges. so not cosette, brittany will spend 2 percent 2.5 percent of g d p. when the economy allows that off right, isn't good enough and that's where a long way short in this country side of western european countries, frankly need to wake up and he will walk gaming this conflict and you cry with all that stop logistical military political uncertainties thrown into the mix. how are it, would you be? well, on an optimist, i made sure, but i'm also rest rid of this. i think the ukraine will achieve its military objectives. ukraine is not going to stop slicing. you've tried the determination, but will, in ukraine, is absolutely extraordinary. ukrainians and that as i stop fighting,
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ukraine will stop existing as a country, so they won't go on fighting until they've defeated russia with always on the west . what does want to me though, is the west support for your crime? americans support for your grand we're coming up to the election. yeah. free of or leading republican the content? those upside, but i would pull out pull americans support from ukraine. i don't know election. yeah. means potential in decision and stuff is i worry about the level of capability of support in, for example, whether your time continue to dig deep and provide the ammunition and all of our capabilities that your crime needs. so i want to back provide rotation. i worry about prevarication, for example, jonathan is still hasn't made up his mind whether to send taurus the long range precision or so seriously capable and exactly what your training needs to complement it's high miles on the british storm shadow as well. so those of the,
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i worry about the will of a west to continue to do what needs to be done. and there's a simple equation. yeah. if the west does, what needs been done, the west is going to be more secure because it will mean ukraine can defeat russia quickly. if this thing runs old on, on, on the west as your, as a whole, will be less secure and in jeopardy storage. and we don't talk much about on the, in was these days. but it's an honorable stops in your view for the west to say to you, okay. okay, you go ahead and cite di for our values, and we'll give you some of what you need to do that. but we're not going to risk upsetting your. it'd be too much so that he turns off is that on mobile? well i think it's difficult to think repaired to go try that was honorable. i deplore, for example, the notion that somehow the west and they tire shouldn't be and insisting but your credit and find some more a that meets. and the way that nice i would do it might be very simple,
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gives you credit into the means to do the job unless some dental with it provides the supports in terms of intelligence and cyber and an e w. of course. but don't try, i'm 2nd guest, ukrainian generals and say, you know what works. they have been fighting the russians not for over 18 months as they have, they have watched it, the russians might have demonstrated that that's all about what they still like is real capability. and equally, your point about putting the time the constraints on your brand, it is absolutely right for you grind development, defend itself to practice in a level right of self defense. and if i mean, striking out into a rush, i won't so be it's, i'm afraid this self deterrence is it well by the west has only resulted in, in the prolonged action of the war. if you crane and have the means to really follow up the the liberation of cas on in november last year. i think it might be
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different as it was, they didn't have that capability because of west i've not given them one rule they really needed. and in a timely memo of that, a lot of the russians to reestablish the front line so robot can to stop building the cycle so rover can line of defense making it much, much more difficult for the credit. and so that's a simple equation. it was, if you plugged, if you concentrate off of, if you, if you, if you really go for it, then you're going to change. all right? and so if you're in trouble, if you're prevaricates, you're going to make things much less because it kind of take much longer. you're talking about ukraine striking into russian territory with costa bones. have you no qualms about back 100 countries, about little of them. a mazda i, the problem is that around a file on file, i don't expect to walk across the rail, and absolutely to close the use of the bones box. if you, if trust, if you cry and needs possible items to clear a russian friend of systems on your credit, entire tree, that is
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a completely different taxes you that as a model for the pregnancy. but what your crime does need is long range because there's new types abilities, so that it can target russian logistic installations, headquarters on the light and, and make it very difficult for the russians. you've got a wide, influential circle of ukrainian contacts, government, call them, and military intelligence. it may, you even spend the night in a and a bump, sheltering care? is that right on the front part of the nice of the bomb shelter along with many of the people who visited the train, what was the mood like of the inspirational the time? and absolutely, this is wrong. i mean, the crime is, as i said out there, i'll click that determines uh, to find a different type of literacy. they recognize that this is a will not just against ukraine, but it's again, it's a war against the west and you pray and joining the west. the determination, the inspiration of the engineer would see the um, the,
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the relative use of the leadership. uh, this is a dynamic country determined to build its to protect itself and to build itself up onto the account of power, the west that people are afraid about what the west might do or might not do to help them of a losing faith in the west. my thing is known as the grateful to the west for what the west has given them. i think i understand a bit better as frustration, but the west is trying to 2nd guess them and tell them how to use it, where a number and the number of recent articles which which, which, which i think i've made the point in the west. we're trying to, as i can guess, the requirements, but fundamentally, i think you companies are absolutely absolutely grateful, but let them get all and as i said to them that some get on and do what they need to do without interfering with them. and the comments like, uh, will be with you all the way for as long as it takes
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a listen to those coming out of brussels. this coming out of washington. does i believe of? do you believe them? well, i checked them at the 1st 5 years, but i do. why is that the that will continue unless the positive actually let's, let's say for example, yes, the nice i saw me, it was very clear in terms of the support. but i would like to see also actually a statement of the major summit, but ukraine will join nature when the conditions allow when the financing have stopped. and i would imagine we all day to give you without any less or hindrance everything, you need to make that pricing start as quickly as possible. in other words, to defeat the russians, either cheve your and bring back tarts, or you can entire train on the pregnant solver and to control several how, how finely balanced is this more in your view? how could things go badly wrong for you credit and what are the possible infection points that you cried needs to watch for?
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what do you guys going to continue to defend? the russians will continue to months offensive operations, where they see opportunities as they are indeed mounting some of the phone all offensive, and the northern part of the house. it appears with the effective results. so you can go to continue to protect itself protected center of gravity. it's also strength and it's also strength visits people and it will add its determination. the lots may so a lot. so it's also going to protect its source of strength, which is, it's a lot cation. i think ukraine will prevail. i think your credit is prevailing at the moment, but it can, it will only achieve final victory when it has broken through a port of the russian defenses. and in my view from the crime there. and from those lines of communication done to crime, they are making it very impossible for the russians to hold all that is going to
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require a huge amount more. and let's be on site jeff. it's not going to be over with one offensive. i think we have to be ready to support the pregnancy in a series of counter offensive or which are going to require the same level of training equipment. i mention that the launching of the fast defensive across it. this could run on for time. so the west nature needs the strategic patients to continue to support your grand till the end of like the end of the day. you know, how about the possibility? i think it was a, in an article may that if the west of the supply all the hardware you pay needs now victory may not be possible. a nice entrance might have to intervene, directed to assure that calf wins. um, do you think that's a real possibility? is that something that nato would have seriously contemplate, that they saw never seriously come to places before the 24 to you know, even up to 2014, an invasion of ukraine by russia nation. i never seriously contemplated the baltic
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states would be for us. and you can never say no, that's the set up for the subject as well. now i it, but it never, you read it. if it really services don't nice i would. and at the rock that would you invite you cried, i think you'd have seen a completely different approach to turns back up a call this nation. i saw this in 2014 for example. so never real anything arch um does what is nice? okay. do i have to get involved? i pray not. but if the alternative is a decade of stay on mates a decade, all an enormous consequences, a running soul in eastern europe, who knows nature, paul, might need to get involved in order to swing the balance because that sort of style made a running so in eastern europe, along the borders of ukraine, is going to be a french to, to europe in security. and if at the end of the day, your pan security is, is threatened. nationwide security is trusting,
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nighttime may have to take action to support your credit. but the way to avoid is that the way to avoid nature engagement is to double don. no. and next. yeah. on what ukraine needs to achieve victory. but just to follow up on, on how you think this might go. do you think the base or whatever chief consensus on applying to move in directly assisting credit in forces with members like congress of chip. so i kept talking oh, possessing a veto using the get its act together to do that. well, it goes all straighter, is, is no longer made to a number, but no point is absolutely fine. the coast consensus would be incredibly difficult to get concepts that consensus. but as a sort of nature moves at the speed of a flyer to ship from the convoy and this, if the threats is the, is the circumstances of i'm not clear and not the moment, but who knows antonio's time? things may well have changed and, and if it needs to nice or we'll get that,
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you've told him some of your interviews about a war last thing 2 to 3 years. no quick fixes. is that a danger that over such a long periods, but it will result as though belies, it drops from the headlines. people get bored, they lose the fighting spirit. money dries up, other priorities begin to dominate. is that a possibility in this instance to think? absolutely, absolutely. and that's exactly what i'm worried about, the west losing interest, the west losing momentum, the west losing 5 cross nights. i may say, oh i'm is they tied defense forces not building themselves up. suffice without being built up to face those right? absolutely. that's my concern. but the with, as i said, i that with an election. yeah. next year in america. will america continue to provide that enormous capability? and that's something we've got to watch. and it comes back to my point about the
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way to make sure that ukraine achieves its picture as quickly as the double dawn of what it needs. now, in order to avoid that long running, long running and settlement do for see what kind of your do you 4 see coming out of this or it's, it's not going to be the same. is it? nothing is ever going to be the same again after this, what changes? everything changes, doctrine, it changes a whole perception of security in your doesn't it, i think very still saw it very still in your, among european countries a lingering feel that somehow we can go back to some sort of stage of the quote to with russia that is not going to happen. what ever happens? yeah, let's assume your credit achieves. that's been the trajectory. let's assume the guns fall silent. the veterans some as a result of 5 of the russians running a white flag, all the novices or something and the ukrainians able are able to, to, to liberate as much of the country as will allow them. the security of, of,
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i was not looking for that is not going to stop russia. the russian does are under what a leader is in the kremlin. russia will continue to want to eliminate ukraine from a map. it's built into russian dna that ukraine cannot exist as a, as a country. there is no such thing as a separate nation or culture of ukraine. and that means that ukraine has got to become part of no time. and that means, but in order to protect and they try to protect your protect the laws, protect ukraine nights i was going to establish a bond of the tire and steal around around eastern europe to include ukraine mall drive of georgia, maybe even one day by the rest to protect against a russian because what we're witnessing is a decline of the russian. and this is going to play out over the decades to comments, not innovative and over and done with the quickly. it's yours of my grandchildren,
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100 revising his challenge. and so the only way to maintain peace in your loan is through an effective nature to turn so that instead of change the change but dynamic in economically financially, the way your positives business the patio is completely dropped out. but that's my view of the way things are going to happen. do you think the doctrine of new care to tone subscribes to survive this conflict? now the russians being waving gets nukes and all faces. and how are we going to see it when they have a new param, states doing the same thing, whatever they want, something that we want to give them is. yeah, i mean, i think you're going to be ready to cancel it, but as, as assuming, but somehow because we've got you right in this country we've, we've got driving to an end to come dropped into continental villa sickness. all that is going to credibly russian aggression to the tire effectively. you need to be able to deter at every level of symmetric, conventional, tactical nuclear, all the way up the scale. i think for the foreseeable future,
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russia of course, will pose a nuclear upfront. the way to, to the chart is to have effective new clips and turns as well as conventional the turns. but the way to and showed up a new class in the nucleus, sabre rattling, uh, is, is, in a sense rendered um, meaningless is through effective conventional to tire detox because of rational things that it can get away with nuclear black mile 'vette. it won't try that. and if you have effective the terms on every level, it wouldn't be able to provide briefly you have the big problem, the west to show that it listens to new, clear black male. it's been listening to what the crime in the sentence it's, it's turned down, it's rhetoric, it hasn't given you credit. the weapons that need it listens to nuclear back ma'am . and that makes it valuable to basically like north korea, doesn't it? well, let's just back to my point about self determines and
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a not cooling pritchens month. i mean, let's be clear. and the sort of new saber rattling is really, really dangerous. uh, but yeah, the west needs to be absolutely unequivocal on shoulders. the top of, i mean, i think we have to not upset and of course is that there is communication between america. rush it up, there is communication between certain, all the native capital's and russia, i'm absolute this out and that the message has been played out very powerfully. but if there is in the fall of nuclear, new to release time to come over otherwise rush, i can expect to suffer a massive pain conventionally as a result. but the wesley spit cleared the time and about that. so richard sheriff, we run out of time. unfortunately, thank you very much for being on complex, so thank you for having me. thankful for your time. thank you. the
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the
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