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tv   Conflict Zone  Deutsche Welle  October 6, 2023 8:30am-9:00am CEST

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the same 60 minutes on d w. well, the in progress of pop calls to everyone who wants to know more about this topic. that concerned about this story is beyond the headline rolled in progress, the w postcard. i worry about the will of a west to continue to do what needs to be done. strong words from my desk. this week they thought was full. the deputy supreme commander of your so richard sheriff, there is still in your, among european countries a lingering feel that somehow we can go back to some sort of states of the quote and to with russia that is not going to happen. so what does he think will happen? so, but loving prospect soon focus is allowed wake up, go to europe, the american general associates and sheriff,
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welcome to come fix up. thank you very much and just bear with me here. you've kind of jumped up some successes on the battlefield in recent weeks. i've actually taken back control of drilling platforms now in the black sea. i've been on it if you could give us an idea of some of the, of the scale of the challenges k of now faces in order to make further advances. i think it would be really difficult to overestimate the challenge. i mean, the brand is, uh, uh, ranged against what a stablish rushing defenses other options have, have time to begin. they know, by digging in they've got in probably by the book. and the credit is going to break it into that very, very well. as i mentioned, zine breakthrough, it's going to take don, mine feels like go to us. they've gotta keep with the significance. i'll talk to the risk incoming file. they're going to break through and then they're gonna break
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out and they're going to do all of this without proper eye color without a superiority which no nature allow me, would consider to identify what that doing as well. no, no. so i'm a full stop has done a prize obstacle crossing in really difficult circumstances. you know of the day. so i'll be with the exception of the u. s. codes because even take this long coded and it's cutting in the account and fold. oh, i think i think it is, i think any nice i well, i mean, but, but the, so as far as to high intensity, come back on pricing would be, would be for path to take this on, but not with our an extraordinary amount of time preparation training of building up the equipment building are kind of national during it. i'm in a sense. it is. is this as well? um, i mean the, the, the college and did in 91 was to break for the rocky defensive position, but it was on a post. so it was pretty easy. guy never has done this since the 2nd world war in
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your medicine was always of sped, j is on counter insurgency in places like iraq, as you mentioned, that kind of stuff. so they're not exactly used to defending against a huge invasion, but your emphasis and the last few months has been on telling them that they should is that which i think is going to happen. i think it's nice to have is to, to russia long term nation is going to be printed prepared for the worst case, which has to be prepared to fight russia. we have major armies of golf. i've got to put the conference agency mindset behind them. and we can talk about so there is an understanding of time constituted combat operations, which was the underpinning of national armies during the cold war. now that's going back a very long time. i've started a new generation have got to find ways to do as the exact same sleet of foot recently as if we've seen the it's members office has spent a few days in latvia training where someone just realized the whole data of
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personnel speak the same language with the same degree of proficiency, nevermind type job. so the 3 out of 24, but his big military vehicles broke down on the boat the way it's not impressive is at the moment as well. they so, i mean, i remain inside of nice i, but you have to recognize which nice side of it it takes time that it's a consensus organization i added it's got to be able to is it has to move at the speed of a flight of shipping the convoy, i mean, coming back to your fast, don't touch it, and that's a strategic point. you know, a tactical points that you're talking about. well, that's what exercises are for the test to get it right until dwanda sign by, things are going wrong. and so you can put them right, they started flights of thoughts made. so multinational operations, at least it's the but it needs to hurt and it's capability and it's still higher. and it's kind of producing by training. and it's a can do that. i'm renting the bus you that the to see, right?
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so then then it can, it can build, begin to build up that to turn capability that is needed. but instead of build up, that sounds. now i went all the way more than 18 months into the largest live more in europe since the 2nd world war. shouldn't things be going a little better these days? but it might just saying things going wrong. it better from the stock brought from the front. i mean, the, we need to recognize this more didn't begin in february 20, uh, february 2022. it began in, in, in, in march 2014 mazda, right. when ross or a talked to brian all get play, february 2014. wanted a nice kind that i just made so how it works or not, but um, and really puts it in place. the measures were clogged to build up its high intensity capability. a, we might not be where we are, be your brain might off by re, by without anyways, factors we all where we all said was served, showed us to the grind started make it happen, drive home and you call to for not to do that sort of thing, so i'm with you completely last year, a study as private, as the car callous of all the data as previous plans for defending the baltic
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states. a country with basic therapy wiped out of the map by a russian, a box datas, extensive planning stuff of a whole, the years of a cold loss increase based back posts ability. well, that's exactly why i write my book. yeah, russia, i highs highlights of the french to the baltic states, written as a way talk cool to that. and they started thinking about what it would do because archive how this was. absolutely right. that if the russians attacked it would have presented and they, so with to walk, she's one run by except never to mind a massive invasion of the whole 6 sites to reach out to them. and so it is absolutely right. no, i'm not privy to the planning, but nature is putting in place extensive plans to defend nay to entire truth, which is exactly what it should be doing. but at the same time it's one thing to put a plans in place. it means the means to protect and that comes,
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brings us back to building up no size to turn. the capability of that means focusing on high intensity conflict on the capability is required for high intensity conflict. it also means providing the cash to do that stuff because i mean you've got the 3 largest economies in mesa, you got from germany and it's all they still don't paying 2 percent of g d p to most defense. so what kind of signal does that send to the cabinet? because when it's on the site that's, that's a pretty ball 2nd, a lot of pain. let's look at the positives last. i'm in the positives of countries like island. absolutely building up. it's kind of built as a go, the voltage sides started a lot the through right now. likewise, of course it goes without saying not i was in the czech republic recently, but check republic are really putting the money while they're in boxes and building up the capabilities is that you're absolutely right. countries like germany, it's so late for us. not yet beginning to spend 2 percent of gdp. indeed,
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the job of defense budget for 2023 is not i thought it was for 2022. what sort of cycle does lots and what does that tell you about the cycle? so i can vendor this cycle, move on to a great change when germany was going to guarantee 2 percent of g d p. yeah, on yeah, in defense, i would also not just like i wouldn't let but, and also whole kinds of, i mean bridges. so not cosette, brittany will spend 2 percent 2.5 percent of g d p. when the economy allows that off right, isn't good enough and that's where a long way short in this country side of western european countries, frankly need to wake up if you're a little ball game in this conflict and ukraine with all the stopped logistical penetrating political uncertainties thrown into the mix. how worried would you be a well, on an optimist, i made sure, but i'm also rest rid of this. i think the ukraine will achieve its military objectives. ukraine is not going to stop slicing. crime,
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the determination but will, in ukraine is absolutely extraordinary. ukrainians and that as i stop fighting, ukraine will stop existing as a country, so they won't go on fighting until they've defeated russia with all with on the west. what does want to me though, is the west support for ukraine? americans support for your grand we're coming up to the election. yeah. free of or leading republican the content. those upside by would pull out pull americans support from ukraine. an election? yeah. means potential in decision and stuff is i worry about the level of capabilities support in, for example, whether your time continue to dig deep and provide the admission of our capabilities that your crime needs. i want to but provide rotation. i worry about provide section for example, jonathan is still hasn't made up his mind whether to send taurus the long range precision no so seriously capable and exactly what your training needs to
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complement it's high miles on the british storm shadow as well. so those of the, i worry about the will of a west to continue to do what needs to be done. and there's a simple equation. yeah. if the west does, what needs be done, the west is going to be more secure because it will mean ukraine can defeat russia quickly. if this thing runs old on, on, on the west as your, as a whole, will be less secure and in jeopardy storage. and we don't talk much about on the, in was these days. but it's an honorable stops in your view for the west to say to you, okay. okay, you go ahead and cite di for our values, and we'll give you some of what you need to do that. but we're not going to risk upsetting your. it'd be too much so that he turns off is that on mobile? well i think it's difficult to, i think regard to go try it out is honorable. and i deplore, for example, the notion that somehow the west and they tire shouldn't be. and in such thing,
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but you credit and fight some more a but that meets and the way that nice i would do it might be a very simple give the ukrainians the means to do the job unless some general with it provides a support in terms of intelligence and cyber and an e w, of course. but don't try, i'm 2nd guest, ukrainian generals and say, you know what works. they have been fighting the russians not for over 18 months as they have, they have watched it, the russians, they have demonstrated that that's all about what they still like is real capability. and equally, your point about uh, putting the time the constraints on your brand. it is absolutely right for you grind development, defend itself to practice in a level right of self defense. and if i mean, striking out into a rush, i won't so be it's, i'm afraid this self. the tyrants, as it was by the west has only resulted in, in the prolonged action of the war. if your brain on out the means to really follow
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up the, the liberation of cas on in november last year. i think it might be different as it was, they didn't have that capability because of west i've not given them one rule they really needed. and in a timely memo of that, a lot of the russians to reestablish the front line. so robot can to stop building the cycle so rover can line of defense making it much, much more difficult for the credit. and so that's a simple equation and was if you lived, if you concentrate of, if you, if you, if you really go for it, then you're going to change. all right? and so if you're in trouble, if you're prevaricates, you're going to make things much less because it kind of take much, much longer. you're talking about ukraine striking into russian territory with costa bones. have you no qualms about that? 100 countries about what the a mazda i the problem is there a, a file on file? i don't expect to walk across the mail, and absolutely to close the use of trustable spots. if you, if trust,
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if you cry and needs possible almost to clear a russian friend of systems on your credit, entire tree, that is a completely different pass you that as a model for the pregnancy. but what your crime does need is long range because there's new types of bullets it so that it can target russian logistic installations, headquarters on the light and, and make it very difficult for the russians. you've got a wide, influential circle of ukrainian contacts, government, call them, and military intelligence. it may, you even spend the nights in a, in a bomb shelter and care? is that right on the front part of the nice of the bomb shelter along with many of the people who visited you crime, what was the mood like the inspirational ton and absolutely, this is wrong. i mean, the crime is, as i said out of the, i'll click that determines uh to find a different type of literacy. they recognize that this is a will not just against ukraine, but it's a good, it's a war against the west and the prime. joining the west, the determination,
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the inspiration of the engineer to the um the, the relative view for the leadership. uh, this is a dynamic country determined to build its to protect itself and to build itself up onto the account, the fun part of the west that people are afraid about what the west might do or might not to, to help them of a losing face in the west and i think they are known as the grateful to the west for what the west has given them. i think i understand a bit better is frustration, but the west is trying to 2nd guess them and tell them how to use it, where a number and the number of recent articles which which, which, which i think i've made the point in the west. we're trying to, as i can guess, the read cremeans, but fundamentally, i think, you crap, i names are absolutely, absolutely grateful, but let them get all those i set out in that some get on and do what they need to do without interfering with them. and the comments like, uh,
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will be with you all the way for as long as it takes a listen to those coming out of brussels. this coming out of washington. does i believe of? do you believe them? well, i think i'm afraid sponder, but i do worry, as i said on the that will continue unless the positive actually let's, let's say for example, yes, the nice i saw me. it was very clear in terms of the support, but i would like to see also actually a statement of them based on the summit, but ukraine will join the nation or when the conditions allow, when the fighting has stopped. and i will divide, we all try to give you without any less or hindrance everything you need to backpack pricing so as quickly as possible. in other words, to defeat corrections. i the chief joke and bring back to our true credit, entire trait on the credit in solving to and control several how, how finely balanced is this more in your view, how could things go badly wrong for you credit?
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what are the possible inflection points that you cried needs to watch for? what do you guys going to continue to defend? the russians will continue to months offensive operations, where they see opportunities as they are indeed mounting some reform all offensive in the northern public warehouse. it appears but with the effective results. so you can go to continue to protect itself protected center of gravity. it's also strength and it's also strength visits people, and it will addicts, determination. the lots makes our lots has also got a protected source of strength, which is, it's a lot station. i think ukraine will prevail. i think your credit is prevailing at the moment, but it can, it will only achieve final victory when it has broken through a port of the russian defenses. and in my view from the crime. yeah. i'm from those lines of communication done to crime,
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to making it very impossible for the russians total. and that is going to require a huge amount more and i'm less feels like that. it's not going to be over with one defensive. i think we have to be ready to support the ukrainians in a series of counter offensive or which are going to require the same level of training equipment i'm edition. is that the launching of the fast defensive across the fisk run on for time. so the west nature needs the strategic patients to continue to support your grand till the end of like the end of the day. you how about the possibility? i think it was a, in an article. and by that, if the west of the supply all the hardware you pay needs, now, victory may not be possible and they sent troops might have to intervene, directed to assure that k f wins. um, do you think that's a real possibility? is that something that nato would have seriously contemplate, that they saw never seriously contemplated before the 2014, or even up to 2014,
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an invasion of ukraine. by rushing nature, i never seriously contemplated the baltic states would be for us. and you can never say no, i thought it was set up for her son because this wasn't about it, but it never do. rarely, if it really seriously don't nice, i would end at the rock that would you invite you, craig? i think you'd have seen a completely different approach to turns back up the call this nation. i saw this in 2014 for example. so never real anything arch um does what is nice? okay, do i have to get involved? i pray not. but if the alternative is a decade of stay on mates a decade, all an enormous conferences, a running so in eastern europe, who knows nature, paul might need to get involved in order to swing the balance because that sort of style made a running so in eastern europe along the borders of ukraine, is going to be a french to, to europe in security. and if at the end of the day,
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your pan security is, is threatened, nature and security is trenton, nighttime may have to take action to support your credit. but a way to avoid is that the way to avoid nature engagement is the double don know, and next. yeah. on what the crating needs to achieve victory. or just to follow up on, on how you think this might go. do you think the base or whatever chief consensus on applying to move in directly assisting credit and forces with members like congress? i'll step back yet. so i k o possessing a veto is in the get it together to do that. well, it goes, australia is, is not as all the major a number, but no point is absolutely fine. the coast consensus would be incredibly difficult to get concepts that consensus. but as a set out, it may tire moves at the speed of a flyer to ship in the convoy. and if, if the threats is the, is the circumstances of i'm not clear and not the moment,
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but here not errors antonio's time. and things may well have changed and, and, and if it needs to nice or we'll get the you've talked to some of your interviews about a war last thing 2 to 3 years. no quick fixes. is that a danger that over such a long periods? that's more as old as globalized. it drops from the headlines. people get bored, they lose the fighting spirit. money drives up on the priorities begin to dominate . is that a possibility in this instance to think? absolutely, absolutely, and that's exactly what i'm worried about. the west losing interest, the west losing momentum, the west losing 5 coasts. nice. i nice. i will. i'm, is they tied defense forces not building themselves up. suffice without being built off to face. that's right. absolutely. that's my concern. but the with, as i said, i there with an election. yeah. next year in america. will america continue to provide?
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i didn't know most capability. and that's something we got to watch. and it comes back to my point about the way to make sure all that ukraine achieves that spectrum as quickly is doubled on what it needs. now, in order to avoid that long running, the long running on sale net do for say, what kind of your do you foresee coming out of this or it's, it's not going to be the same. is it? nothing is ever going to be the same again after this, what changes? everything changes, doctrine, it changes a whole perception of security in your doesn't it, i think very still saw it very still in your, among european countries a lingering feel that somehow we can go back to some sort of states of the quote to with russia that is not going to happen. what ever happens? yeah, let's assume you create a cheese expanded trajectory. let's assume the guns bull, silent. the veterans, some as a result of 5 of the russians was running a white flag old as an honest as or something and the ukrainians able are able to,
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to, to liberate as much of the country as i will. a lot of them, the security of, of it was not looking for that is not going to stop russia. the russian does are under what a leader is in the kremlin. russia will continue to want to eliminate ukraine from a map. it's built into russian dna that ukraine cannot exist as a, as a country. there is no such thing as a separate nation or culture of ukraine. and that means that ukraine has got to become part of no time. and that means, but in order to protect and they try to protect your protect the laws, protect the crane nation. i was going to establish a bond of the tire and steal around around eastern europe to include ukraine mall drive of georgia, maybe even one day by the us to protect against a russian. because what we're witnessing is a decline of the russian. and this is going to play out over the decades to com.
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it's not a bit of an over and done with the quickly. it's yours of my grandchildren. honeymoon pricing is challenged. and so the only way to maintain peace in your loan is through an effective nature to turn. so that is gotta change that change, but dynamic and economically, financially. the way your does it's business. the patio is completely dropped out, but that's my view of the way things are gonna happen. do you think they doctrine of nuclear to tone subscribes to survive this conflict? now the russians being waving its nukes and all faces, and are we going to see over, they have a new pair on states doing the same thing, whatever they want, something that we want to give them as. yeah, i mean, i think you're going to be really careful about us as assuming, but somehow, or because we've got, you're right in this country we've, we've got try it in to an integral dropped into continental or sickness. all that is going to credibly russian aggression to the tire effectively. you need to be able to deter at every level how symmetric, conventional tactical nuclear,
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all the way out the scale. i think for the foreseeable future, russia of course, will post a new friend the way to to the target is to have effective new clips and turns as well as conventional attendance by the way, to and showed up a new class. but the nuclear saber rattling is, is, in a sense rendered um, meaningless, is through effective conventional to time to tax because of rational things that it can get away with nuclear black mile 'vette. it won't try that. and if you have effective the terms on every level, it wouldn't be able to provide for your, for your home, the big a problem, the west to show that it listens to new, clear, black male. it's been listening to what the crime in the sentence it's, it's tough down it's rhetoric and hasn't given you credit. the weapons that need it listens to new, clear black man. and that makes it valuable to basically like north korea,
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doesn't it? well, let's just back to my point about self determines and not cooling pritchens month. i mean, let's be clear. and the sort of new saber rattling is really, really dangerous. but yeah, the west needs to be absolutely unequivocal. and i'm shoulders the top of, i mean, i think we have to not upset and of course is that there is communication between america and russian. up there is communication between certain, all the native capital and russia. i'm absolute this out and that the message has been played out very powerfully. but if there is any full of new, come out new to release, tactical or otherwise, russia can expect to soften a massive pay conventionally as a result. but the wesley stickler determined about that. so richard sheriff, we run out of time unfortunately. thank you very much for being on complex. so thank you for having me. thankful for your time. thank you. the
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the,
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the business the, the unit is coming to live from berlin. ukraine software is one of the deadliest attack. since the start of the russian invasion, at least $51.00 civilians, including a child are killed by a missile strike. as they tend to wake in the east of the country, ukraine's president calls it a deliberate act of terrorism. also coming up, the leaders are preparing to grapple with the thorny issue of how and when to welcome ukraine to the block as they arrived for a 2nd day.

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