all sorts of gibbs, but only if the crime is addressed in the power of attorney to take responsibility for his actions. guardians of trees starts october 28th on d. w. the, the how much terror attack on israel is the largest mass, murder of jews since the holocaust says. israel's president, what he called his country's darkest hour has cast a long shadow worldwide. the assault on october 7th, as prompt and comparisons to massacres, perpetrated by the terrorist group isis. a most fighters killed more than a 1000. his release, including babies. children were old people. they ceased an unprecedented number of hostages. so far, at least a 1000 palestinians have died during counter attacks by the israeli army, which is blocked. the goal is to strip and mobilized

a record $300000.00 for service. why we're israel's wanted military and intelligence services caught off guard. what movie attack mean for an already precarious region? our topic today. how much the terror against israel? how will it change the middle east, the, and welcome to to the point. it's a pleasure to introduce our guest starting with guido stein back, who is a terrorism expert at the german institute for international and security affairs s w p. it's also a pleasure to welcome daniel dylan, tom. uh, she is a senior news editor on the foreign affairs desk at the german daily defense. shiny of us on this is a colleague here at dw. she's a commentator and editor for us and has also worked for media in her home country as well is and it's

a pleasure to welcome joining us virtually ofa lets asthma. and she is an independent author and a musician who is equally at home and in germany. and in israel and she joins us via skype. and also if i, if i may, i'd like to start with you, you are in israel at the moment. tell us how people are reacting to this worst attack in 50 years. is real, had been driven by divisions and recent months is that now has that receded as well . the people are more preoccupied ways and overcoming the every daily challenges we have to help those with being evacuated from guys are, those are being evaluated. now i'm from the northern borders, i would say the logic questions like the question of um, social unity about politics. these are questions that we'll have to wait until the award is over. thank you. and and shawnee, one of the striking things about the images that we've been seeing. images of terrified young concert goers of blood smeared homes and villages very close to the

border. is the fact that people seem to have felt so safe. they're so close to gaza . it seems that that very high tech, very expensive wall, was viewed as an impenetrable barrier. correct? that was one of israel's, of pillars of defense. when it was looking into that region. the assumption was 1st that there will be, had notice in the sense of intelligence. and that this barrier, which was, as you said, very expensive and very technologically advance will secure the border. and the failure of these 2 is still something that is we have so many israel's, or a glass grappling with still and it's gonna stay there for a long time. we're going to figure this out and we will come back to that question shortly. but do you to let me ask you about the comparisons that we're hearing more and more now between him us and, and the, the incredible suffering that it reached in its attack and isis are those

comparisons justified? and what do they tell us? well, both organizations come from totally different uh, ideological backgrounds. and until recently, i would always have argued that how mazda is a lot more pragmatic and the muslim brotherhood tradition of the nice as was. but if we take a look at the violence that has been perpetrated over there, it's a primarily reminds me of the, of the you. is it a genocide in iraq and this this quest for an annually? elation, not only of these rarely spite of jews. this is, i think something new and that's quite comparable twice that. so i think when dealing with the organization, we should perhaps not think as much of the of, of how most of, for my tons, but rather fighting in the organization that is a lot closer twice has been we previously for, i don't know what will have been the driver for him boss,

to perpetrate this attack. now, at this moment in time, what do we know about from us is here rolled. there is some speculation over that. one of the most plausible explanations is that the sponsors off from us, we're interested in stopping the roof, prussia mall between those roll and saudi arabia, which would have been really a serious blow to remain in strategy in the region. but i think we can take this completely for granted. at least the united states say they have no indication that iran directly ordered this attack. but we can be sure it couldn't have happened without, during an approval. and as for homeless, they always have an interest in dealing faithful blows, tails all. oh, so linda is a, can quickly add to that. we know this wasn't the making for many months over year already . and the saudi american ties that have been exposed to this just happened recently

. so the something deeper the connecting more to what it was saying about where almost as good heading, ideologically, what we're seeing as, as the hatred running deep and, and how it channels the actions of this organization. and over all of this is taking place in the region that was already a tinderbox. what potential reverberations where we use the most as well honestly speaking as i'm talking to you from the northern part of visa next to k file and is why was driving around in my hometown here in northern israel, seeing all the tang single, the military where looking towards north to the living east boulder we ask ourselves, how will this is well, i react how we even react. it is, i must admit, isn't he's ready again, leaving now and being in northern israel, very reassuring to see the strong u. s. american response. sending a have a carrier here today, region to send a message don't as president biden said,

don't back off, and us foreign minister also traveling to the region as well. let's take a closer look at the homeless attack and it's potential reverberations in the region. i'm us and as long as terrorist groups fired more than 2000 rockets at israel on october 7th alone, it broke through the barrier around the gaza strip, using explosives and bulldozers. according to his really reports, some 1500 militants breached these really military block heater cause i into is rarely territory and killed more than 1200 people on the street and in their homes . including young people attending a music festival. about 150 people, including women and children, have been taken hostage. they are running head of state i a total accommodate praise the attack while rejecting accusations that had been orchestrated by the miller regime. but some analysts say that a large scale attack of this nature would have not been possible without support

from t ron regime. and no one has repeatedly threatened to destroy its perceived arch enemy israel. for years the regime has aided the militant as long as group. i'm us, providing money, weapons and training, you know, and his also threatens israel with the help of hezbollah. it's ally, militia, and 11 and widely considered a terrorist organization. hezbollah immediately expressed solidarity with moss by firing rockets that the is really bored or israel defeat from us by military means . either i'd like to put that question to you. but coupled with some of the language that is rarely leaders are using, they're talking about eliminating how mosse, when they describe their intentions. garza is a dense urban area. so most fighters are surrounded by civilians. so what is a campaign of illumination? look like when we don't know exactly what,

what these rarely walton will be a. but according to what, luckily to say we, we will have to expect a ground offensive to the who gaza strip. and i think that these rarely military, uh, is, is capable of off uh, of destroying the structures of the most in the god because of st. many how most fighters will die. perhaps most of them, many is rarely soldiers will die of many civilians where die no matter how careful these rarely military proceeds. and i don't think there is, there is any alternative. if. if the government, if there's really government really wants, wants to go to all the, all the guys and cities daniel, the use for and policy chief and a number of other leaders as well. have warned that is real as it embarks on a military campaign. must respect international law avoid harming civilians. is

that wishful thinking? it will be hard to do that, but if you take international law quite literally international law does recognize the fact that civilian casualties happen in wars. international law says that warring parties need to take every measure they can in order to protect civilians. but what is sure is that we will see a lot of civilian casualties. and we will also see media and policy campaigning from the from us side. and also in many are up states that wilk hughes is roll off, needlessly slaughtering from us taking and this will be part of the political fight around this company. you recently wrote that making peace with him us. it's impossible out of the question. so i know it's early days, but what does that mean? how does this end? well, i think making peace with some us is um,

but at least close to impossible because off it's funding, that's the fundamental list, religious audiology. and also because it's not actual from us alone to make peace, it is all so an instrument of reading and foreign policy. i think if we want to settle the conflict around moss for good, then it would need a grand supplement in the middle east that would somehow at least limit the confrontation with iran from israel, but also from many arab states. this is part of the context, at least for the want, and we'll come back to that point, but it's shiny. let me ask you about the hosted situation. how moss has some 150 is really hostages, including old and young people. children, mothers, it has threatened to murder them. if is real attacks in the gaza strip indiscriminately without warning. do you think that will deter the,

is really authorities? well, officially they said want all the statements we've been hearing from is really officials, is that they're going to fight homeless as if they don't know. hostages only may be in specific cases when they know on of specific a place where they're being, how they might. because my detour them, um, it's a, it's a, it's a terrible position that, that, that it puts these really leadership and you cannot that they don't control gauze or they don't know what's happening in the underground level of the tunnels and gaza. and where these people are hitting, they're not even sure how many of them are they're held by how much, how much is very purposely hiding that a to use that. i wouldn't put the pass them to use the house of theirs in any way possible. and israel is always, it's always a touchy subject as well. and this, specifically, the greater the outcry from the public will be the harder which will be for these related to ship to take, to ignore this topic. so for in the past, israel has participated in hostage exchanges. in fact,

the current head of from us in gaza was a member of a mass group that was swapped for one is really present our name. me give that shot . charlotte, do you think any kind of negotiations would be going on now? is there any way to try to effect such a swap at this time? or whether attempted negotiations, the cutoff via egypt, actually as one reads via germany as well. we have a different dimension. now, as you're right, dimension can actually towards one person was exchange to around $1016.00 and prisoners in each row. we have now around $100.00. 50 is riley, a prisoner's or a is ready victim c, thinking the in the guise of street, young babies all the old people. and they must say, it is a challenge. talking is a journalist, it is a challenge to talk about these things to talk about the human sufferings of these

people. actually, to also talk about the human suffering of this either population in god's in a, in a remote manner. maybe because it's eating these real. it is rather rather difficult, and i ask myself in order to avoid from the destruction that awaits now the guys in the street from in these really offensive. i think that it is the role maybe over the arabic world. it is definitely the role of the policy in india, spread through sound, a clear voice that whatever from us has done and made it actually is not their thing that is being done on behalf of different, assuming people, it is not the thing that has been gone for the palestinians struggle for, for independence, and that's might be give the perspective that might give it way to relieve it guys and relieve is right from us and avoid civilian casualties on both sides as much as possible. are you hearing voices like that? for example, from members of the top, which is usually viewed as the moderate palestinian representative. as

there are 2 answers to these question, the arabic silence, especially the silence of the palace steaming. you'll find me, i'll follow me and the assignments of the kind of scene and gas pro is painful in our years, especially those of us where things struggling side along side. it was the philistines for palestinian estates was about with the news. well, we see a new role of jewish arabic, n, g holes. we see voices, we hear voices of solidarity. and regarding these, uh, these are types with the voices. we hear voices a say this has nothing to do is the 15 minute drive. the lease has nothing to do and with the, with the slowing, but again, the assignments of the posting in the front assignments of the policy in, in, in a far t is painful. we also need to keep in mind that those muslim victims among the israelis in still being bombarded. there are many muslim arab is where it lives, sharing destiny and faith with israel, his shoulder to shoulder up data of those palestinian civilians in gaza. israel has

called on them to leave, undoubtedly, as it's considering a ground defensive. but where are they supposed to go? egypt for one has refused to set up safe corridors for refugees to leave because the strip was the there is an area in the gaza strip where they could possibly go in the southeast. and i think that this, that these really military would do, would be ready to respect the safety of uh, of any persons in, in the area. but quite in general, there simply won't be enough space for guys, one's cousins to leave. if egypt does not let them into the country, and it seems as if the egypt will not do that again, if, if it is a tax no matter whether they are all human in terry inquiry doors inside or outside of kaiser menu, civilians will die. daniel, can you say a word about, again,

how you see the further progress and in the gaza? let's say israel does conduct this campaign to eliminate from us. what does it have to do after that we occupied gaza? it has been profoundly reluctant to do so. it left more than 20 years ago and has, has attempted to contain rather than to occupy. will that change? well, i think it might change. and actually when you talk to members of deals really military and to some politicians behind closed doors, they will tell you that maybe it was really a mistake to move out of fargo and 2005. and that it hasn't been evident that you can't control this place from the outside, that you can prevent it from becoming a time boom, that explodes in regular intervals. so i think this is definitely not out of the question, but i think we also have to keep in mind that there are also problems doing in the

west bank. and this could be another problem that is little has to deal with either politically or security wise, maybe even within the course of this conflict. so let me ask um, i'm gonna switch focus a bit and come back to how this could have happened and shiny. if i look at the headlines in israel, i see headlines like a net on yahoo is recklessness. has brought war upon israel. that's a quote from honda that's the left leaning is really newspaper. despite the mood of national unity or at least solid there the would you say that this is a provoking criticism and is the debacle as much of political one as a military one? well, i, everybody feels something is off right, left, strong, supportive and nothing. you know, everybody understand. this is an unprecedented failure. this is an unprecedented shock and trauma. and there are attempts mostly from above,

from politicians to put poultry politics aside. but the rage is such that these voices cannot be taken for too long, and there is no announcements. and yeah, has been the prime minister for over, i mean, for 16 years, almost other than a short interval. last year, he is a pointed many of the heads of the security and defense apparatus. he's been complaining to be mr. defense. this is his claims for fame and failing. and this point is going to be something something very hard for him to dodge. so i think also if we want to stay away from civic, go look into politics. this is the role of leadership taking responsibility. there is really people, many of them feel they have been left without anyone taking responsibility, defend for themselves during that attack and ending the days before they are still following with the quick need that is there and various response from the government. and so we have a has to go, haven't had, we have to see together data or you, us leaders are saying that egypt actually warned israel about 3 days before the

attack. that's something like this might be coming. and it seems that from us and part through this information managed to low the is really security service says into a false sense of security. so how was that possible, and what does it tell us about the vaunted military unintelligence power? like, i'm, i'm not that sure that the, the intended intelligence failure is as big as it is being to pick to drive. now, simply because how mazda is a very professional, very secretive, heidi, highly ideological organization. it is capable of hiding some things, especially because that is rarely, as we're expecting a similar attack, not from the gaza strip, but from the north for 4 months already. so i'm not that sure that, and you'll always have to expect that your intelligence services don't get prior information about operations. they are not perfect. it's a very,

very hard job that has been extremely successful for decades. but things like that happened. and that is why the, on such a border you need the military. but the military was that, theoretically it should be one division. let's say about 202-582-0000. so just they were not there. so that's the failure of the military leadership. and of the political leadership, and i agree, some months after, after this boy has ended, i believe no time yahoo and some others will have to leave home for nothing. yahoo has now gone into a unity government with the centrist opposition leader benny guns too, has a great deal of military experience. but the extreme right wing members of netanyahu's coalition remain in the government as i understand it. so what if anything will change, or i would as long as these to rephrase your question a little bit, nathaniel was forced into a government of national unity and we,

we had to wait for 5 days for the government to the national unity to be formed. we had to wave where to wait for the 789 hours between reform it and you know, who is actually usually he jumped in front of every camera before he talked to the east rodney, people explaining what is going on. actually the only active political leadership that we have seen in east round in the past few days came from us president joe biden. it did not come from the history of the leadership any to follow up. i'm lucky to steinberg just said the military was not there. where was it? the question is, where was it? i know these are questions that will be discussed after the war is over, but we know that the threatening military and this, you know, reflects upon your question about the right wing the right extremist thing. these really government has created many provocations in the west bank through the set 3rd movement into each way the army was forced to take care of those provocation. so we ask ourselves, where was the military, what is the role of the political a,

of the political leadership in israel, in allowing this horrible attack to, to happen and, and i'm sorry to say, hoping to get us diabetes. right. the thing i will not survive, at least for these blood, these day for the jewish people's things by 245. but and these really put these really politics. it seems 1011 months, anything else but the rational. so we will have and see if we will have to wait and see that. so i'd like to briefly, you know, i, the failure is in, in is, is in the macro. we're not into the details of what happened to the intelligence. the failure is the short sightedness, the failure is the arrogance, the failure is the lack of prospect. but that to me, always not, you know, has given or not given to the region to the past. and for many years this is where the failure is. let me come back to another dimension that was covered briefly in our report that we saw earlier. and that is iran is ongoing support for her mouse and for his bola, daniel,

you have called his bullet iran sharpest sword. so 2 quick questions. if i may, what do we know about it runs involvement in the attack itself, whether there was explicit for knowledge and intentionality. and secondly, what do we think about whether his bullets we'll jump into the fray? well, as for iran and it's involvement, as i've said, it's inconceivable that this would have happened with out iran knowing and approving it. there has been reports from lab and on that there was a meeting between rang and from us and his will. leaders on monday before the attack. this is not a confirmed report. so we should treated with caution. but it is possible that iran was closely involved at least and then as an observer and that as for the play you want to take place now. as for his bullet, as well as mainly so strong because it has

a huge arsenal of miss ons. not all of them are really advanced math science, although they're all. so i'm going to precision ms long as among them. but the sheer number of missiles could cause a huge problem for is willingness our defense, which as we know is probably the most advanced in the world. i don't think that his beloved once to enter with a fight at the moment. there's a tit for tat up the north, but this could escalate and it is already escalating. you know, our title asks whether this will change the middle east. could we see this turned into a regional intern even an international conflagration? it's plausible scenario. if he's paula intervenes, this is his paula caesar sees itself forced into a confrontation with israel. of that is that is as a scenario. and that's the very reason why we have seen the movement of the american across kerio towards the eastern mediterranean. i hope that we will see

a relatively short floor in gaza, but i'm not quite sure that uh that this will be, will be the reality in the coming weeks. i'm afraid we'll have to leave it there. thank you very much to all of you for being with us today. thanks to our viewers for tuning and see you soon. the

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