the, this is where things wealthy industrial nations no longer need, and the lightest textile waste gets stranded here. all about the final stuff in the global fashion industry. fast fashion watch. now, on youtube, the germany's defense minister has warns that in an increasingly dangerous world, the german military must become combat ready and quickly. that will require a major overhauls not only to the buddhist there, but also to attitudes in german society. despite billions of euro's promise last year to modernize the armed forces, decades of deliberate under investments mean it's still facing, shortages and equipment. funding and men were willing to fight this all them it

concerns that soon germany might not be able to count on the united states for its defense on to the points that we're looking at. the state of european security and asking is a germany fit for combat? the hello and welcome to this addition of to the points on claire richardson in berlin . and i'm thrilled to welcome our panel of guests this week. we have british journalist and author and john kemp tonight. mark was kind senior fellow with the german institute for international and security affairs. and joining us today from france or rica, franco senior policy fellow up in european council on foreign relations very warm welcome to you all or reach out for decades of germany has intentionally under invested in its military. why do you think we might potentially see

a change in this now? i mean, we are already seeing a change in the 3 days off the, the invasion russian invasion and you crying there was landmark speech bible. nas tonsils are the federal transfer that would upshaw is announcing among other things, 100000000000 euro being spent in the armed forces and for the equipment of the on forces. and this money is being spent. i mean, not a 100000000000 and all at the same time, but nevertheless, there are lots of new equipment and things that are being bought. the big question really is, is this enough as much as 100000000000 sounds? there are already voices that say we need probably double or triple that and will this lead to yeah, more combat readiness. this is enough to, to find the under investment that you mentioned. and this is a huge question. mark us, germany's defense minister for us, the story is, has warned that germans must get used to the idea that war could be looming in europe, and also must be fit for war. how dangerous is the current situation for germany?

i think he has a federal related elizabeth footboard at the good reasons when he made the point that even natal territory might be concerned all might be affected by russian attack. however, regardless of this, i think war has to return to europe. you can make the point thing was never play from the europe and we have to remember the bulk and was in the 90 ninety's. but major interstate war has returned to europe and might be some kind of new normal for the years to come. and i think in this regard, he has a valid point and then into threatening germany quite directly. john, i want to come to you on that point. can you tell us a little bit more about how rushes invasion of ukraine in february 2022 has changed the security environment in europe? what i mean for germany besides has been to speech of older shows 3 days off the persians. invasion was really, as it was described, it was the turning point is a turning point, psychologically for germany and for germans who had always regarded the main line.

some of the 2nd world war was not to be involved in military action, just a wolf as a bad in itself. rob of the defense of democracy and values that germany and an allied countries share. and that is a huge, the pacifist movement here was very strong. it is gradually, gradually being picked the us of the appointment of bar as the story is in military times, was the big game changer that followed months later. because he is the best best really to drive it through. you now have german forces in advanced positions and miscellaneous soon to be in romania. and it feels very different. germany has overtaken the u. k. as the major as your largest arms provider for your grade. but just to throw one further thing into consideration, the israeli palestinian conflict is absolutely going to test western level when it

comes to your credit. and you've got a sense that the counter offensive, a view kind of upset lensky didn't achieve that much. you have a sort of sense of own we going into this and of will fatigue in western europe going into into this winter. this is going to be the biggest best yet. el rico john has touched on it just a little bit. but can you just remind our viewers before russia's invasion of ukraine? what was the general attitude of germans um toward the importance of having a strong military? mm hm. yeah. so um, don't use the term process as mine said, which i don't quite agree way. so, i mean, that's also, i think, used it in the past, but i think pacifism isn't actually the right term to describe the german mindset. i think it was rather, i mean, it was actually quite anti military. any topic regarding the military defense security was just so you know, something we didn't really want to talk about and didn't really need to talk about

. um, so i think what happened was that following the end of the cold war, the fall of the berlin wall in 1989 and the fall of the soviet union and 1990 germans really embraced this idea of the end of history. right? where military might, wasn't that relevant any more international disputes would be solved through international organizations, international law. the real kind of do political mind might, was more trade focus and economically focused. and so this idea of this that the world would eventually become through globalization and things to globalization, a more peaceful place, a liberal place, a well democratic plays if you like. and so, yeah, anything related to the military was kind of a thing of the past. and next thing germs really felt quite enlightened if you like, and really felt like, yeah, military issues were something that we didn't really need to think about anymore. and now this was clearly wrong and to be honest, i mean it was always

a bit of an illusion because the reason that this was kind of true for 2 or 3 decades was also because we were under the security umbrella of the united states. and nato, which is something we didn't like to talk about so much but, but yeah, this was the general mindset as i've, as i've seen it. and as i've grown up in it's and so i think now we really have this, this shock, this realization that what we thought to be true wasn't actually true, or at least as has changed. and we need to get used to this new normal where you have to you political competition and where military mike does play a role and you might need military capabilities for to tyrants or even for an actual defense. indeed. so as will recall has said everything has changed after february 2022 and rushes invasion of ukraine as we've heard just days later. german chancellor, all off schultz, speaking of a site to then to a watershed moment or a turning point in history for germany's defense policy. and with that can be

promised to begin modernizing the german armed forces and a one time fund of 100000000000 euros of the bonus. there appears well equipped in this add the german army as being massively re armed again after decades. thanks to 100000000000 euros and special funds, but it's happening slowly. before donald was still have chevy accommodations, they still have to borrow and sherry equipment because there was not enough to outfit the entire army. we are also stocking ukraine, which is necessary and important. but we can't forget that our soldiers also need tanks, equipment and so was about to renew the german defense minister of his story. as soon as the point, despair will look different in 3 to 5 years. today, it is already one of the strongest needle forces in europe. however, media reports say that the story is will have to offer incentives to lower soldiers into germany's promise to $4000.00 man combat brigade on nato's eastern flank and lithuania. personnel is

a general issue. the number of applicants is shrinking. the bone despair might not grow from around 880002 over 200000 employees by 2031. how well defended is germany, parkers can you help pay that picture for us? how fits, is it the german military today? is it, is it combat ready? no, it is not. and it's nice. see this phrase buying a close by image of the drum in general from i think the february 24th or 25th. when he was writing on social media waste and he and they could and he was making the point that the german, i'm for this, i'm not ready to respond to the new threats a coming from russia that the old let and development of the last, let's say 30 years was under different political guidance pointing into the same

direction, less investment, less spending. i mean, the defend sponsored, what's printing or has wrong with the live have decrease over the last 30 years. and it does not represent the and, and do you particularly auto for your, i mean, we are the biggest power in europe. i mean, not a military, thomas funding, economic terms. germany is considered to be the driving force behind your opinion, to graze and the quest of your pin fire and security policy. there are tremendous expectations towards many bugs in military terms were not ready to defend themselves and nothing. we can be happy, the president food in with a has not and bands for the because i have my doubts if it would be in terms of driven impulses will be capable to help lithuania, to give one example to help them as donia and to defend germany. particular, and you said there are states within europe that do expect more from german militarily. are you referring there to the baltic states?

yeah, i mean, i best clear point and then use particular kinds of, of, of need to, as may have that the, that's a new emphasis. i'm actually the emphasis since 2014 but no, and has been emphasized again, is on reassuring for this and for an eastern european states and onto tyrants. and this is particularly important for the countries like poland, like the baltic states, romania boug area with few of for understandable reasons and threat brought about in a different intensity in a different way compared to germany, l rica. one of the issues within the one to start understand is a shortage of personnel. i want to ask you a little bit about what's behind that because there was a survey done in germany earlier this year, showing that if germany were attacked at just one in 10, germans would be ready to take up arms and fight for their country. and that number was even low or something like just one in 20. so it actually put their hands up and volunteer to do so. uh, what do you think is behind that attitude to?

yeah, i think so. i think it shows 2 things. number one, it shows that we do live in a bit of a post terrorist society where, you know, this idea of taking up arms to defend your country. it's something that does really doesn't need with a lot of people. that being said, i think we also need to be careful with these kinds of polls, given that they are hypothetical and i think the situation would change if there was an actual attack on an actual danger to the german society. nevertheless, it certainly shows that well again, things related to the military to the fence is just something that we really didn't have to think about. we actually rather reject it. and so i'm not really surprised by the numbers that you code. and john, is it surprising to you? i mean, do you think it's a problem, even even if those numbers were to increase or should there be an actual attack and this were no longer just hypothetical. do you think this is a problem for germany to be able to find people to fight and it's military? well, i think work is right that it is a hypothetical and when it actually would happen,

a line sets would change. but i think there's a different way of looking at this. i totally said the analysis of the, the failures to invest in the military. the under appreciation of military matches . the fact that the bonus bout is, is not remote play, come back ready. and it will take time to happen. however, if you look back at when boots in invited you great. the assumption was he would take care of within a few days, he would install a puppet government and not many people would lift a finger. this was shortly after the president, like all, had declared nato brain dead. and it was just an assumption that this was the way it was. this is off to trump and breaks it and, and many of the negative manifestations. so much of that has changed. nato has been extraordinarily robust and cohesive during this period, the european union. and we're having a different function has been all set. nato has, as has added in finland,

and sweden, it just on permanent, has just elected, has just moved away from popular stores. our attachment isn't that we're all good things going on as well. and in some respects, what happened in ukraine, notwithstanding the, the, the awfulness of the invasion has concentrated mines. i think something a lot of international viewers will be wondering that we've talked about how this does mark a shift in culture, away from germans being very nervous after the atrocities carried out in germany's name in world war 2. the last time that germany was fit for war, do you think that those concerns are fading enough in order to address germany's military weaknesses in order to address a changing geopolitical world? well, it's just happening slowly, step by step and things that happen in the straight line. either i'm just going back to the middle east crisis, which everything plays upon itself. and then there were ways of fans or china and taiwan in the middle east crisis. and the german government refusal alongside the

us and other governments to cool for a ceasefire is also a sort of sign off. and it's incredibly contentious and incredibly impassioned. but there is a hardening of german society, a sense that this permanent outsourcing of its defend to united states and the other part is no longer viable. but this transition period will really take some time. well, marcus, i want to come back to germany. nato obligations do you think it will be able to meet its native obligations in his current state? if you ask them defense minister, he's quite confident. i'm not. i mean, let's take only one number, the defend spots, and there's a commitment since 2014 to spend 2 percent on and on and depends county where and as far as i know, 1.50. as far as i remember, this is not so obvious, given the 100000000000 euro special funds you mentioned at the beginning. so

investment can happen, county, but i think i'm the cruise of questionable appeal after the special fund is spent in 272027 know 2028 when we arrive again at the same question, i'm posed to germany since 1015 years. and what i, how much are you going to spend for defense? and i mean, 2 percent is roughly 18000000000 girl. and i could imagine after possible end of the ground war in whatever form. and that's the liberal rates put very good questions. and i mean, after the russian ukrainian peace, i could imagine that the momentum of the type mend was simply slowly fade away. that's a constant consciousness that we have to do more for defense. spent ball for the fans will simply fade away in the political arena. that best would just be

a blip on the radar. so yeah. okay, well let's address one of the clouds. it's been a over this whole conversation. take a quick look across the atlantic to the united states, where of course, presidential elections coming up in 2024. and, and donald trump the clear front runner among the republicans. some recent polls also see him beating bite and in a, as a sceptical re match to become president again and many in europe, fear another trump presidency. it will be a devastating blow to its security. for years there happened, voices calling for europe to be less dependent on the united states. if french president emanuel nicole had his way, europe would have reduced its dependency upon the us in terms of defense policy long ago. but german, french arm and projects such as the planned air combat system or a new primary battle tank had been struggling for years. there was also a dispute over the european sky field initiative led by berlin to francis displeasure. germany is purchasing the israeli american aero 3 missile defense

system escaped kinda and there was no acute threat of attack. this arrow 3 is not being procured to protect us from a threat right now rather in the future. because we see that the dangers have gotten closer to and there was an aggressive neighbor in europe again, and that's why aero 3 is the right decision at the right time. so that we will be able to defend ourselves here from 2025 hiring fee sign. 18 e u countries have joined the protective shield with francis, pursuing its own project together with italy. mccall says that europe should not rely too much on the us. instead, it should create independence systems to be shown. so that's why do we still buy american product so often because the us is much more standardized and there manufacturer is received massive subsidies auction and also just see it. but tim and should europe emancipate itself militarily from the u. s. r,

cuz i'm curious to hear your thoughts there can and should the us europe rather try to emancipate itself from the u. s. when it comes to defense policy. i don't see, to be honest. i mean, one has been proven by the strong american response to the russian, i think on new grant is that without your assorted without the united states, 0 to start, defend itself for the foreseeable future. that might change in the next 203040 years. but for the time being, i think we have to, we have 4 dependent on the united states in miniature terms. i would add in political terms as well. give them the political in cool hearings of the union. i think it was a and would be a fatal idea to distance themselves from, from the, from the european, from the united states. and i mean, what would be different, the idea of a strategic autonomy of the last couple of years was focusing more to get away from the united states. and now it's about defining an autonomous role in accordance

with the united states and in the corporation. it was then i'd states, i don't think i'm curious to get your view there too. i do share that opinion as well. so in my view, the europeans should absolutely strive to become less dependent on the united states for at least 2 reasons. number one, we just heard them might be another trump presidency. there might be someone else coming to power in the us who doesn't support your of as much as as bite and then previous administrations do. but also, quite honestly, there are 500000000 europeans and 350000000 americans. and i don't see why the us should forever and ever have to guarantee european security and defense . there are of course, historical reasons for that. then, you know, they are very grateful, but i think just logically speaking, eventually europe should be able to take more care of itself. and this is by no means any kind of n t american isn't. on the contrary, i think, you know,

most of most americans would also welcome europe to do, to be able to do more by itself. the problem that i see is right now, i think we're actually kind of seeing you opposite. i think we're seeing an increase in dependence on the united states. and germany is an interesting example because germany has been supporting european e u or other, you know, your pin multi level efforts to build up situation defense in the past. but, you know, kind of not really hard to do, i'd say an ever since the russian invasion and also with the publication of the german national defense strategy. you actually see germany turning more towards nature and more towards the west, basically saying, you know, this is what we've got. and this is what works. and european idea is all nice and well, but doesn't work quite yet. and so therefore, we don't put as, as much effort into it. and so i think this is going the wrong way. yeah, john, do you think this is a good idea? can you just put into plain terms for us, what it will mean? you know, given the very realistic possibility that donald trump becomes president of the

united states. again, what will that mean for german defense and for nato? if donald trump wins the 2nd, not to be 2 night stay cool, bets are off on pretty much everything full bed. so we're off and i'm not being deliberately sort of the cataclysmic, but it, it would be potentially as a catholic lesson for western liberal democracy for the future of nato, for the sustainability of law. school 5, the, the mutual defense agreement. and i did with this sort of extreme, both are a terry and populates in his contempt for democracy. his can contempt for electro results. it's also the unpredictability of it. you know, we, we remember his, his flat thing with north korea, which produced no discernable games and nobody knew quite why he was doing it as it is still a mystery. so this is the absolutely very, very black cloud that is hanging over. you are the bite and the administration has

invested a huge amount, politically and its relationship with your company, particularly its relationship with germany behind the scenes that often expresses frustrations that the, the point about germany be incredibly slow to get to 2 percent. not the only country, but it, it is the trends that to and the most important country independence failure to get . that is a problem. but the americans are trying to bring sort of to, to nudge the germans in, in the right direction. and the answer is, is, is seemingly clear whether to be in northern from peon administration. don't forget, brock obama was frustrated with europe and he was talking about the in the pacific tilts and about the re prioritize ation of american foreign policy long before trump. so this sense of europe having to step up pre dates, trump, but as i say, it will be a completely different environment to trump wins. margaret said it is clear that germany certainly benefits from

u. s. support but but does the relationship go the other way to i want to just make clear, what does washington get out of having an ongoing strong partnership with germany through the native alliance? i think we're going back it, it goes back to the, to the assumption of basically the all us presidents in the policy since the last 70 years. and even the united states, as a major power needs instruments to implement and spa and these kind of instruments, alliances, and papas. we have them for the pacific with the special relationship with korea and japan, with a new form, alliances with australia and use even with the quote form and, and bring india into the, into the ring and for europe for the year. and then the honor we have the traditional natal form and so that adds momentum to us form policy, its way to go with form policy and not to mention all the operational advantages to have you as why is this on your pin for which makes life falls the u. s. foreign

policy in the middle east and military policy in the middle east. easier. all right, so we'll give you uh, the last word, just briefly, if you were advising german policy makers on how to go about becoming more independent from the u. s. in terms of germany's defense needs, what concrete recommendations would you make me? so there are many things. i think the germany needs to do right now. it has to do with funding and financing. we need to not only reach to 2 percent as it was said, but reaching reach and reliably. it's still not entirely sure how we're going to do this one. that's the, the special fund runs out. we need to have a societal debate on all things, military and security, and our b b. i'm looking for political guidance on this. this isn't just happening. you know, like this. it really needs to be driven by the political realm. and we do need reforms in the kind of m o d, and how the point is that works,

which is something that is being started right now, but needs to be given to even more. okay, well, thank you very much for that. thank you to everybody watching at home, and that is our show for today. we hope you enjoy this addition of to the point. i want to thank our guests for their insights and thank you for watching. let us know what you thought. if you're on youtube, you can drop us a note. the comments, i'm sorry. richardson in berlin. many thanks. once again, the,

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