she wanted me to remain mysteries or some strong, sometimes threatening, sometimes the charming, but i couldn't see behind her mad to disagree with. the red princess starts november 25th on dw, the ukraine's highly anticipated counter offensive has so far failed to show significant victories with dire consequences for its troops. shortage of that munition and less support from the west have brought the war against russia to a steps too many ukrainians are dreading the approaching winter because of renewed russian attacks on critical infrastructure. and they're also worried about being abandoned by the west altogether. will the winter bring a war of exhaustion that further jeopardize ukrainian integrity and independence on to the point we ask, failing against russia? can you crane survive the war

the welcome to this week? so to the point time, how you know, yeah it's, it's good to have you with us and i'm joined by today's guests because he made a don bluth is a radio journalist and author and former correspondent for germany's deutschland, formed in russian. women gunshot ankle is my dw colleagues from ukraine, currently working with dw russian service in boston and cool stuff. guess it is a senior policy fellow at the european council on foreign relations here in berlin to all of you. thank you. thank you for being with us. today now because you know, i'd like to start with you, the situation in the middle east has certainly drawn attention away from the war and ukraine, but they're also just haven't been major breakthroughs in the war in ukraine for weeks or even months. how would you describe this moment in the russian ukraine war?

and i think it's a very, very critical moment because as it sets up the situation on the front, a somehow stuck um, even you could say the drug gains initiative again, especially in the east a few crane. at the same time, you'll have for funding reporting, saying that only pretending to be ready to negotiate and negotiate. but this has nothing but empty words. indeed, he has the same goes far as far as he had earlier. he wants the whole ukraine and more and at the same time you'll have those ukrainian population. um, people are really afraid of the upcoming winter. and this of psychological elements, as i think, very, very walrus homeland, very important for the whole situation. and certainly hard to watch what's going on right now. hold on. you can have promised a counter offensive that would win back territory taken by russia. by the end of this fall here in europe, it failed according to your pains,

own valid use. i lose me. what went wrong? what was the last name and basically says that's the reason for, for the, for the, for the situation. we're already now which is some sites a stalemate. some say we're close to a to, but anyway, dissertation is very dynamic. so i wouldn't call to stay on that at this moment because we're actually still trying to push on the main reason, according to the grant in chief, come onto the layers of learning you've been quoting, is that the level of technology, all those drones and surveillance equipment they do not allow for either side to collect a lot of forces in one place, so to have enough power for a break so, so ukraine can do it, russia can do it as well. but russia has much more soldiers, much more heavy equipment. and ukraine has to be very much, very, very careful with, with, with the soul just because it has

a much lesser sources dom restaurant, which is obvious. and this is one of the major reasons. so she's, she's message is we need to find and taking logical solution for this. what, when, because we cannot expect any more that uh, more tanks or more, more a military. the jets will help us to achieve a quick victory. so it will be a long war and we need to be sure that the west continues to support us. but we also need to be looking for a different logical solution. this is, this is how he explains it. he seems to be very realistic also, maybe not that optimistic president will let him hear savanski go stuff is still appears to be very confident that ukraine will win this war. is he the only one? well, the problem is yes. some reason to say that because unlike in the west, but most people expect a state of mind to lead and to cease fire to lead into a frozen conflict, which will the chance low present bite and one's on the long run. he knows the down

basically too old comes of this will brush or wins, or you train which the the restroom present and there's not playing for stay late. they want to conquer ukraine on either ukrainians, prevailing the will and prevent that and push the russians out. all the russians are cheese dots over a lone wolf attrition. that, that when in 2027, 2028 twelfth. so say she has to alert the west and that's the voice mail, pointless. i'm not to expect to cease fire in the next 6 months and diversity solutions, however military. yes, it is a situation by you. i have almost no chance on major breakthroughs and regaining territory. if you looked as a swede, accounts cold war map, and they have also a charge for the pool, the square kilometers one by either side. so the 1st, the big russian incursion and big russian reading, then you have the ukranian count defensive lucy, large ukranian waits,

but you see the curve of territorial change is going down basically from march. april is going going down, down, down, down, down. it's getting smaller on both sides, both on the russian new trains aren't getting small, the smallest will. and that is, that is the tricky thing because ukraine mold and russia russian can win. this is a lone wolf attrition, but to ukraine, for this strategy of success to get to just to you of also have to isolate crime me up to false russia on the negotiation table by taking crime your whole state, they need maneuverable and that's uh, unfortunately of course not in the cards for now. we're going to have a closer look at the situation on the front because it is, if it is a state related can only be described as a very bloody one. small territorial games on both sides are paid for with a heavy desktop. were now approaching the 2nd winter since russia invaded ukraine. 6 months ago, you crean launched a counter offensive, but so far,

victory remains elusive. the fighting continues and casualties are increasing. near of disco in the northern donuts region, russian troops tried to breach several points along the eastern border to improve their position before winter. ukrainian forces are defending themselves with drones and cluster munitions. by contrast, the ukrainian military says it is making progress near the embattled city of care center located on the left bank of the disney pro river. but despite intense battles, the territorial games on both sides are only marginal. this is one of the reasons why even the commander in chief of the printing army issued a warning of a military scale made to new cream still when this war that's of course of the question of women. this idea of a possible stalemate that you think is certainly not there yet,

makes it sound like there's nothing going on in the battlefield. but how difficult is it for your crane to even sustain the current positions to hold them from russian attacks of the moment to ukraine is holding back all those attacks. and when a little back a one year russia was able to, um, to take just 2 or 3 smaller cities. but from what is the biggest sort of dar, near it's and now they are trying to do the same in of div coat which is by then that's very close and how they did it. they just pushed a lot of soldiers, not, not by a follower. uh, superiority golf course, they have it, they have to ask priority, which is very important. maybe gustavo russell could say more about it, but uh, one of the major reasons for us and success there in re taking those serious uh, was, did have a lot of soldiers. you came. ukraine doesn't have so many soldiers. that's why russia will be pushing again this winter. ukraine has enough forces to stop that or

maybe to slow down, but it doesn't have enough force to completely stop it or to try in your offensive in the near future. maybe next year, when they've accumulated new brigades, they're trying to do this. and they will probably make one more attempt next year. but it is still unclear how successful rush will be in this went. and now we're talking about that land, or there has been a lot of talked about a war of exhaustion, which means that russia would essentially extend this war for years and years. and that russia has a bigger capability of actually achieving that because it can supply its military better because he knows you think this is happening already. is this the way we're going? i think so. yes, i'm afraid. so what we see is that in russia there is almost still no protest against the mobilization. the recruitment goes as it goes. so recently there

was a new letter of the young protest but a kind of for the rid of resolution bias. so just mothers hoover and saying the bonding to get there. so just back just for kind of holiday for rotation and so on . but they didn't criticize the war at all. they didn't say stop at this war. it makes no sense. are pointing, go away. if it was a no fundamental criticism, so there was still a huge majority of people in russia, in the russian society who are silent and who are not definitely not against the war, if not in favor of the war. and the 2nd point is money and technologies. and this is a very important issue that russia is still able to deal to cope with the sanctions and even to produce a weapons because they get the necessary competence via china via to cancel on. so

some of the predictions most of that had been done in the past that russia would not be able to supply it's military, that the money would run out, that there would be social protest in the country or even some attempts to get put in out of power have not really become reality. what, what do you think is the reason why it does the russian soldiers and the russian army still continues to apparently be untouched? while they're most of the reasons on the political side. i think most of the talk about regime change in russia was wishful thinking of putting has for where a long time trying to solidify his author retiring regime. the level of repression in russia is on president of the will help to, to stop a lifestyle even further. because if you protest i, in the, in the past time, you went to jail, if you protest against the president, now you go to the front of the, you're going to be mobilized. if they catch you protesting,

which is much more dreadful as a threat to your personal life and safety and then just going to jump so that he was st. paul. the 2nd thing about sanctions, 1st of all, sleeping sanctions like tried. there is no precedent. we haven't sanction so tightly another country in, in the recent past and other big country. so we actually know how good it's going to back up. the problem is some false. oh, some tracks up at 1st of all of course, lots of parts. all the rest of the world don't carry sanctions under the weight of the west, soc, is northwards used to be globally economically technology. you can, you have alternatives in showing a central but the 2nd thing is the sanctions have a lot of loopholes or gravestones. but to slip through into opinion sanctions, i'm only torn and implemented by each member say, do you have countries like hungry austria that have signed sanctions,

but in theory should supervisor them all stream police or home guy room police and prosecutors should bring sanctions violations to quote half a day. now, if you still have a lot of stories about german enterprises, australia enterprises, using either these countries in media or directly going into supplying russia and the russian war. she, you have intermediaries like turkey, which interiors and h. remember about the in practice is one of the biggest smugglers of illicit goods into russia. and there is no big recipe. just stop that we have, for example, when people send you out or rush them like run out for me. so we had at the beginning of the wall last year, direction boy economy had great difficulty adjusting to sanctions because suddenly they didn't get that some leader didn't get that. they were large piles in, for example, the factories producing tanks and in for to fighting vehicles. but it will waiting

for just small items that some of their clocked in, in, in the line and people's at all, they don't put out anything anymore. so if the last is continue and the don't put out anything. if y'all, you know, linear re x and extrapolate this chart, rush is going to lose. the problem is of course, pressure adjusted then the child was never linear. unfortunately we're symbol protection is going up quite substantially. but then i would ask one, why haven't we seen velocity, mr. lansky? there are you creating president, for example, calling for even tougher sanctions or other ways to stop this? if apparently the russian army is enabled right now, while he has tried and he has tried and he said, i remember very well him saying we have a stop to hearing about the sanctions for sometimes we'll get well hearing about them again now. but there was kind of a pause and um, it looks like the west saying, well, well, there's not much of what can we can do about it. so we've already imposed so much

a we can hardly do more, but we can actually you can, you can still um, stop doing business with russia or red color, reduce it. and this will, if you ask me, i think this will decide the outcome of this will, how successful the west will be in putting pressure on russia economically. and this is also something which is not so difficult because in germany here it is, especially during gemini, will have this a best sophistic movement will have problems with the blind ukraine's with certain kinds of weapons west, still not giving them the taurus missiles. uh, but we could for the comic pressure, much more than we've done before. but we, i'm in germany as the biggest country into european union. and this is the way just to end this war. because if you, if you look at history, you look at the past, russia last, this, the 1st world war. because if they cannot economic problems at home. but this is, this is the only way combined with a sustained delivery of weapons and

a 2 little shelves. just just one example i've, i've been seeing or hearing and reading lot west next, but experts in the past there's one of them there. an american, michael kaufman. he said north korea had delivered more to the rochelle structure than west. so this is actually, is the case idea. i didn't know if a go stuff a guess, agrees was about. but this, this is something we should think about it. yeah. for sure. we will have a look at the arms specifically and the weapons because in ukraine there is growing fear that the western allies could abandon the cost a whole set of high level western visitors and recent days, i've tried to dispel that concern from german defense minister, but was just totally as the president of the european council showing me show and the us secretary of defense, lloyd austin, is a powerful statement from the us secretary of defense on his trip to keith. i announce today the, another $100000000.00 drawdown,

using presidential drawn out authority that it will provide additional artillery, the news, munitions additional interceptors for a here defense and get a number of i and i take weapons that as well, but that's a drop in the ocean compared to us, president biden support package of more than $61000000000.00 currently being blocked by congress. making it increasingly more clear that europe must step up. this is another reason why germany has promised billions of euro is an additional need, but the you cannot keep, it's promised to immediately send a 1000000 artillery shells be put up to production must be ramped up and accelerated. that is the order of the day. but we won't reach the 1000000 mark. the west is still united in the fight against a flight of mere pollutants forces. but ukraine urgently needs any mission and more funding for both the war and reconstruction. can europe deliver more to ukraine than just the symbolic support?

an empty promises we are seeing fading support, especially in the us because you know, how alone is europe and dealing with this crisis right now. i think what's really crucial is that we have to understand and by we, i mean, democrats all over the world, but especially also in europe in germany. and we have to understand that this war is not only russia's aggression against the ukraine, if the war against democrats, that's also oliver. and we have to acknowledge this and draw a consequences. so this is why we have to support ukraine. much more this of saying like, as long as it needs, as long as it takes, it's not enough. we have to define and develop a strategy. what we want to achieve, and it must be the same, but rational gets out of ukraine, which russia has a legally occupied gender west. we tend to forget what was just before this

war. and there was an ultimatum by flooding that protein, extra nato. what she basically said, get back, pull back, where you were 1997. so the whole of central and eastern europe should get out of nato and be neutral. so to say, and this would mean that russia will dominate the european continent. and that's still the goal, but because of what would need to happen in order for ukraine to really achieve a breakthrough with the current conditions, with the current support and with the current perspectives, especially in the us as well. there are 2 elements. the 1st is quantitative support. there's in so for each of those lack of quantity of what's been deliver uh, we saw a concentration or replenishment of ukrainian forces by especially eastern a central european allies using old soviet equipment. they still have left over from nate translation to nature equipment or nature,

stand the bus them equipment that was delivered and kept you training the fight. last year. then we had a tiny attempt of the west, stepping in the endless debates about tanks and all the vehicles to supply at least old stocks. cold war equipment on the low part, one tangs and 1113 apc's, etc, that are left over from the true production. also the cold war and could now supply you train. this will keep you train roughly in the fight this year and the beginning of next year. i bought your train, everybody's talking about drones, but still ordering and read up on systems tanks. infantry fighting vehicles are still necessary to keep the war fighting. currently, ukraine out built the entire european continent on infantry fighting regions. if the worst doesn't ramp up production, not only an alternative, i'm additional,

all the systems as well necessary to just keep on to find ukraine will be out of material in 2025. so that's the 1st thing. the 2nd thing is the quality of the technical obstacle solution. he mentioned to down there. they're all ideas how to overcome them. they need to be tested. there's also the issue of system integration. we have drones and also technology disrupting the kind of i show cali book flow not to bother you with military terms of making life forces. they have to stop for a lot of things slow down the centralized otherwise to come to the stuff. and if drones could be better integrated, normal, like an ice units, so you could increase the speed of the box low. and again, going to move and uh, electronic wolf integrating electronic boyfriend that as well using for example, drones and all the pilots as an attendant systems. a lot of ideas floating around

the old will be tested out and a need to be tested all them as well with a discussion about how to integrate old conventional weapons systems like tanks that you still need. but which are we are not able to use properly unless you old them off the drone defense electronic wolf or recognizance. and to integrate them into one fighting units, properly synchronized that will take time. that will necessitate continue testing improvements, etc. and then you will take effect this and this is a long term thing. the problem is we leave in a state for ukraine has to leave with promises from this month to the other. there's new core here in industrial strategy in the west. how they've got the quantity right and how to work with you training and feed, come on list. they've got the qualities right to produce. not only what we think was good beating the read, all mean 1985,

but which is suitable for repeating the russian army in 2023. and that certainly plays into the hands of latimer putting it gives, you know, what's the talk and russia, what's the perspective from russia? do they think that things are going well as in the society? there is almost no talk. this is what i want to say. it 1st, but in the leaves. well, fulton is repeating what he says. so some 40 has been saying that that's of the a must be to the next. if i ukraine recently has been off so well. the operation will stop. he said that it's not about territories, it's about supporting our russian, our russians, and how he's very flexible in uh, in uh, defining this. and this is, by the way, a very important if we discuss of what we can do, what the west can do to support your crime is not about military support, not developed financial support. russia is not only fighting and military war

against ukraine's also trying to destabilize the democracies. and this is the point where every democrats short a stand up and discuss with those who do not like democracy anymore, and to are in favor of author retiree and resumes like in russian narrative. that however, is very difficult when we can and should talk about dialogue in any program dealing with or of course woman does he, in, at the beginning of the show, said that writing or putting is only acting as if he is open to dialogue. do you agree with that assessment? of course. so we've seen this before. remember a 10 years ago when russia 1st invited ukraine under cover with those, those green man on the korean peninsula, on the west, played his game and said to ukraine, don't intervene. don't shoot. well, buchanan had little choice the time, but that was a mistake because what followed was russian preparation for this big war rush. i

use the time that the tad and all those and freedom supporters and people here in the west saying the weapons, the us administration said no weapons to ukraine, don't good. so that was a failure. and it's obvious. now we are in an, even in a more dangerous situation, because russia is no strong enough and believes with the support of other countries, you can win this war. we'll see how that plays out. it's certainly going to be a difficult time and i, that's a cold winter, especially for the people and you're going to all 3 of you. thank you so much for being with us today to you. thank you so much for watching and remember that and can always watch our youtube videos searching and dw views, of course, and also all the to the point shows i'm playing, i guess, until next time. take care by the,

the, the, into the conflict with sim sebastian fix not getting the headlines these days, but the warning ukraine has lost none of its intensity from capitol hill. hughes, my guess is the prime minister as the one goes on, how much space does she have in nature plans for defending the voltage space? conflict in 30 minutes on d w. what do these do for fun?

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the, this is dw news coming to live from berlin. the israel, him, us truce, takes effect. what's hope to be a 4 day re pre begins after 7 weeks of war? it's part of a deal that includes the release of some hostages this afternoon. the dw news, i'm terry martin. welcome to the program. a highly anticipated israel hum us the