the say she represents a mixture of expectations and disappointment, fear some strong, sometimes threatening, sometimes the charming disagree. the red princess starts november 25th on d w. the ukraine's highly anticipated counter offensive has so far failed to show significant victories with dire consequences for its troops. shortage of munition and less support from the west have brought the war against russia to a steps too many ukrainians are dreading the approaching winter because of renewed russian attacks on critical infrastructure. and they're also worried about being abandoned by the west altogether. will the winter bring a war of exhaustion that further jeopardize ukrainian integrity and independence onto the point we ask, failing against russia? can you crane survive the war?

the welcome to this week said to the point in time how you know. yeah it's, it's good to have you with us and i'm joined by today's guests because he now don bluth is a radio journalist and author and former correspondent for germany's deutschland, formed in russian woman. i'm going to the bank, who is my dw colleague from ukraine, currently working with dw russian service in bon and go staff gets it is a senior policy fellow at the european council on foreign relations here in berlin to all of you. thank you. thank you for being with us today and now gives me, i'd like to start with you. the situation in the middle east has certainly drawn attention away from the war and ukraine, but they're also just haven't been major breakthroughs in the war and ukraine for weeks or even months. how would you describe this moment in the russian ukraine war?

and i think it's a very, very critical moment because as a sets of the situation on the front is somehow stuck. um, even you could say the drug gains initiative, again, especially in the east a few crane. at the same time, you'll have for funding reporting, saying that only pretending to be ready to negotiate and negotiate. but this has nothing but empty words. indeed, he has the same goes far as far as he had earlier. he wants the whole ukraine and more and at the same time, you'll have those ukrainian population when people are really afraid of the upcoming winter. and this of psychological elements, as i think very, very, very someone very important for the whole situation. and certainly hard to watch what's going on right now. hold on, you can have promised a counter offensive that would win back territory taken by russia. by the end of this fall here in europe,

it fails according to your pains own valid. he is always neat. what went wrong? what was the last name and basically says that the reason for, for the, for the, for the situation we're already now which is some sites a stalemate. some say we're close to a to, but anyway, dissertation is very dynamic. so i wouldn't call the statement at this moment because we're actually still trying to push on the main reason, according to the grant in chief, come onto the layers of learning you've been quoting, is that the level of technology, all those drones and surveillance equipment. they do not allow for either side to collect a lot of forces in one place, so to have enough power for a break so, so ukraine can do it. russia can do it as well. but russia has much more soldiers, much more heavy equipment. and ukraine has to be very much, very, very careful with, with, with the sole, just because it has

a much less sources dom russia, which is august. and this is one of the major reasons. so she's, she's message is we need to find and taking logical solution for this. what, when, because we cannot expect any more that uh, more tanks or more, more a military. the jets will help us to achieve a quick victory. so it will be a long war and we need to be sure that the west continues to support us. but you also need to be looking for a different logical solution. this is, this is how he explains it. he seems to be very realistic also, maybe not that optimistic president will let him hear savanski go stuff is still appears to be very confident that ukraine will win this war. is he the only one? well, the problem is yes. some reason to say that because unlike in the west, but most people expect a state of mind to lead and to cease fire to lead into a frozen conflict, which will the chance low present bite and one's on the long run. he knows the, the, basically to old comes of this will brush or wins, or you crane which the,

the restroom present. and there's not playing for stay late. they want to conquer ukraine on either ukrainians, prevailing the will and prevent that and push the russians out. all the russians achieve that over a lone wolf attrition that that when in 2027, 2028. i say she has to alert the blessed that the voice mail pointless. i'm not to expect to cease fire in the next 6 months and diversity solutions. however military, yes, it is a situation by you. i have almost no chance on major breakthroughs and regaining territory if you looked as a swede, accounts cold war map, and they have also a charge by the pool, the square kilometers one by either side. so the 1st, the big russian incursion and big russian reading, then you have the ukranian count, defensive lucy, large ukranian weights,

but you see the curve of territorial change is going down basically from march. april is going going down, down, down, down, down as getting smaller on both sides, both on the russian and you've trained so i guess the smallest smallest will and that is, that is the tricky thing because ukraine mold and russia russian can win. this is a lone wolf attrition, but to ukraine for this strategy of success to get to see if also to isolate try me up to force russia on the negotiation table by taking cry me a whole stage they need maneuverable. and that's uh, unfortunately, of course, not in the cards for now. we're going to have a closer look at the situation on the front because it is, if it is a state related, can only be described as a very bloody one. small territorial games on both sides are paid for with a heavy desktop. were now approaching the 2nd winter since russia indeed ukraine. 6 months ago you crean launched a counter offensive. but so far,

victory remains elusive. the fighting continues and casualties are increasing. near of disco in the northern donuts region, russian troops tried to breach several points along the eastern border to improve their position before winter. ukrainian forces are defending themselves with drones and cluster munitions. by contrast, the ukrainian military says it is making progress near the embattled city of care center located on the left bank of the disney pro river. but despite intense battles, the territorial games on both sides are only marginal. this is one of the reasons why even the commander in chief of the printing army issued a warning of a military skill made to new cream still when this war that's of course of the question of women. this idea of a possible stalemate that you think is certainly not there yet,

makes it sound like there's nothing going on in the battlefield. but how difficult is it for your crane to even sustain the current positions to hold them from russian attacks of the moment to ukraine is holding back all those attacks. and when a little back a, one year russia was able to, to take just 2 or 3 smaller cities. but from what is the biggest sort of dar, near it's and now they're trying to do the same in of div coat which is by then that's very close and how they did it. they just pushed a lot of soldiers, not, not by a follower, uh, superiority golf course. they have it, they have they ask priority, which is very important. maybe gustavo russell could say more about it, but uh, one of the major reasons for us and success there. in re taking those serious uh was did have a lot of soldiers. you came. ukraine doesn't have so many soldiers. that's why russia will be pushing again this winter. ukraine has enough forces to stop that or

maybe to slow down. but it doesn't have enough force to completely stop it or to try in your offensive in the near future. maybe next year, when they've accumulated new brigades, they're trying to do this. and they will probably make one more attempt next year. but it is still unclear how successful rush will be in this one. now we're talking about it, or there has been a lot of talk about a war of exhaustion, which means that russia would essentially extend this war for years and years. and that russia has a bigger capability of actually achieving that because it can supply its military better because he knows you think this is happening already. is this the way we're going? i think so. yes, i'm afraid. so what we see is that international, there is almost still no protest against the mobilization. the recruitment goes as it goes. so recently there was

a new letter of the young protest but a kind of for the rid of resolution by so just mothers hoover and saying the bonding to get there. so just back just for kind of holiday for rotation and so on . but they didn't criticize the war at all. they didn't say stop with this war. it makes no sense or poor thing. go away. that was a no fundamental criticism. so there was still a huge majority of people in russia, in the russian society who are silent and who are not definitely not against the war, if not in favor of the war. and the 2nd point is money and technologies. and this is a very important issue that russia is still able to deal to cope with the sanctions and even to produce a weapons because they got the necessary competence via china via talked to you and

so on. so some of the predictions, most of that have happened done in the past that rush, i would not be able to supplies military, that the money would run out, that there would be social protests in the country or even some attempts to get put in out of power have not really become reality. and what, what do you think is the reason why it does the russian soldiers and the russian army still continues to apparently be on touch while they're moved to bill reasons on the political side. i think most of the talk about regime change in russia was visual thinking of putting has for where a long time trying to solidify his author retiring machine, the level of repression in russia is on president. that's the will help to, to stop a lifestyle even further because if you protest i, in the, in the past time, you went to jail. if she protests against the president, now you go to the front, you're going to be mobilized. they catch you protesting which is much more dreadful

as a threat to your personal life and safety and then just going to kill so that he was staying power. the 2nd thing about sanctions, 1st of all, sweeping sanctions like tried. there is no precedent. we haven't sanctioned so tightly another country in, in the recent past and other big touch. so we actually know how good it's going to back up the problem is samples or some attracts appeared. first of all, of course, large parts of the rest of the world. don't carry sanctions under the weight of the west socks is northwards used to be globally economically technology. you can, you have alternatives in china cetera. but the 2nd thing is, um sanctions have a lot of loopholes to or raise on. so i just looked through into a pin union sanctions, a monitored and implemented by each member say, do you have congress like hungry austria that have signed sanctions,

but in theory you should supervise them all stream police or home garron police and prosecutors should bring sanctions violations to court half a day. now, if you still have a lot of stories about german enterprises, fostering enterprises using either these countries in media or directly going into supplying russia and the russian will rushing or do you have intermediaries like turkey which into you are using a 2 member bothering practice is one of the biggest smugglers of elicit goods into russia. um, and there is no big recipes or stop that we have. for example, when people send you out or russia might run out of me. so we had at the beginning of the roll last year. direction boy economy had great difficulty adjusting to sanctions because some lead, i didn't get that some lead. i didn't get that. that will large piles in, for example, factories producing tanks and then for to find some vehicles. but it will waiting

for just small items that some of their clocked in, in, in the line and people's at all, they don't put out anything anymore. so if the last is continue and they don't put out anything. if y'all, you know, linear e x and extrapolate this chart, rush is going to lose. the problem is, of course, russia adjusted and the child was never linear. um, unfortunately we're single production is going up quite substantially. but then i would ask one, why haven't we seen the commercial landscape? are you creating president, for example, calling for even tougher sanctions or other ways to stop this? if apparently the russian army is enabled right now, while he has tried and he has tried and he said, i remember very well him saying we have stopped hearing about the sanctions for some time to get well hearing about them again now. but there was kind of a pause and um, it looks like the west saying, well, well, there's not much of what can we can do about it. so we will ready to impose so much

a we can hardly do more, but we can actually you can, you can still just stop doing business with russia or red color, reduce it. and this will, if you asked me, i think this will decide the outcome of this what, how successful the west will be in putting pressure on russia economically. and this is also something which is not so difficult because in germany here, especially there in germany, we have this a best sophistic movement. we have problems was the blind ukraine's with certain kinds of weapons west, still not giving them the taurus missiles. uh, but we could for economic pressure much more than we've done before, but we, i'm in germany as the biggest country into european union. and this is the way just to end this war. because if you, if you look at history, you look at the past, russia last, this, the 1st world war. because if they cannot economic problems at home. but this is, this is the only way combined with a sustained delivery of weapons and

a 2 little shelves. just just one example i've, i've been hearing and reading a lot west and ex, but experts in the past. there's one of them there, an american myco customer. he said, the north korea had delivered more to the door shelves to russia than west. so this is actually a skis idea. i didn't know if a goose stuff i guess agrees was about. but this, this is something we should think about it. yeah. for sure. we will have a look at the arms of specifically and the weapons, because then ukraine, there is growing fear that the western allies could abandon the cost a whole set of high level western visitors. and recent days, i've tried to dispel that concern from german defense minister, boldest. the story is the president of the european council showing the show and the us secretary of defense, lloyd austin, or a powerful statement from the us secretary of defense on his trip. the keys i announced today the, another $100000000.00 drawdown,

using presidential drawn out authority, that it will provide additional artillery news, munitions, additional interceptors for i here defense and get a number of i and i take weapons that as well, but that's a drop in the ocean compared to us, president biden support package of more than $61000000000.00 currently being blocked by congress. making it increasingly more clear that europe must step up. this is another reason why germany has promised billions of euro is an additional need. but the you cannot keep, it's promised to immediately send a 1000000 artillery shells. people to reduction must be ramped up and accelerated. that is the order of the day. but we won't reach the 1000000 mark. the west is still united in the fight against flooding, mere pollutants forces, but ukraine urgently needs any mission and more funding for both the war and reconstruction. can europe deliver more to ukraine than just the symbolic support?

an empty promises? we are seeing fading support, especially under us because you know, how alone is europe and dealing with this crisis right now. i think what's really crucial is that we have to understand and by we, i mean, democrats all over the world, but especially also in europe, in germany. and we have to understand that this war is not only russia's aggression against the ukraine, if the war against democrats, but also oliver. and we have to acknowledge this and draw consequences. so this is why we have to support ukraine. much more this of saying like, as long as it needs and as long as it takes is not enough. we have to define and develop a strategy we want we want to achieve. and it must be the same that russia gets out of ukraine, which russia has a legally occupied skin. the west would tend to forget what was just before this

war. and there was an ultimatum by bloody met, 14 extra nato. what she basically said, get back, pull back, where you were 1997. so the whole of central and eastern europe should get out of nato and be neutral. so to say, and this would mean that russia will dominate the european continent. and that's still the goal, but because of what would need to happen in order for ukraine to really achieve a breakthrough with the current conditions, with the current support and with the current perspectives, especially in the us. well, there are 2 elements. the 1st is quantitative support. there's insufficient those lack of quantity of what's been delivered. we saw a concentration or replenishment of ukrainian forces by especially eastern a central european allies using old soviet equipment. they still have left over from nate, the transition to an a to equipment or an a to stand on the bus them equipment that

was delivered and kept you trained in the fight last year. then we had a tiny attempt of the west, stepping in the endless debates about tanks and other vehicles to supply at least old stocks. cold war equipment on the low part, one tangs and 1113 apc's, etc, that are left over from the troop reduction. also the cold war and could now supply you train. this will keep your train roughly in the fight this year and the beginning of next year to uh, box, ukraine. everybody's talking about drones, but still ordering and read up on systems tanks. infantry fighting vehicles are still necessary to keep the war fighting. currently, ukraine out built the entire european continent on infantry fighting regions. if the west doesn't ramp up protection, not only you know, 10 or 11 additional,

all the systems as well necessary to just keep on to find ukraine will be out of material in 2025. so that's the 1st thing. the 2nd thing is the quality of the technical obstacles solution e mentioned they're there, they're all ideas how to overcome them. they need to be tested. there's also the issue of system integration. we have drones and also technology disrupting the kind of i show clearly book flow not to bother you with military terms of making life forces that have to stop for a lot of things slow down the centralized otherwise to kind of do this stuff. and if drones could be better integrated, normal and i can nice units, you could increase the speed of the work flow. and again, i'm going to move involve uh, electronic wolf integrating electronic wolf and that as well using for example, drones and other pilots as an attendant systems. a lot of ideas floating around.

those will be tested out and a need to be tested all day. and as well with the discussion about how to integrate old conventional weapons systems like tanks that you still need. but which are we are not able to use properly unless you old them off the drone defense electronic wolf at recognizance. and to integrate them into one finding uni, properly synchronized that will take time that will necessitate continue testing improvements, etc. i'm danny will take effect this. i'm, this is a long term thing. the problem is we leave in a state for ukraine has to leave with promises from this month to the other. there's new corps here in industrial strategy in the west, how they've got the quantity right. and how to work with ukrainian feed commodities to get the quality right to produce. not only what we think was good, beating the red army in 1985,

but which is suitable for beating the russian army in 2023. and that certainly plays into the hands of land recruiting because you know, what's the talk in russia? what's the perspective from russia? do they think that things are going well as in the society? there is almost no talk. this is what i want to say. it 1st, but in the leaves. well, fulton is repeating what he says. so was, and 40 has been saying that that's of the a must be to the next. if i is ukraine recently has been off so well. the operation will stop. he said that it's not about territories, it's about supporting our russian, our russians, and how he's very flexible in uh, in uh, defining this. and this is, by the way, um, very important. if we discuss of what we can do, what the west can do to support your crime is not about military support, not about financial support. russia is not only fighting and military war against

ukraine's also trying to destabilize the democracies. and this is the point where every democrats short a stand up and discuss with those who do not like democracy anymore and to our in favor of author, retirees, and visions like in russian narrative. that however, is very difficult when we can and should talk about dialogue in any program dealing with or of course woman does he, in, at the beginning of the show, said that writing or putting is only acting as if he is open to dialogue. do you agree with that assessment? of course. so we've seen this before. remember a 10 years ago when russia 1st invited ukraine under cover with those, those green man on the korean peninsula, on the west, played his game and said to ukraine, don't intervene. don't shoot. well, buchanan had little choice the time, but that was a mistake because what followed was russian preparation for this big war rush. i

use the time that the tad and all those and freedom supporters and people here in the west saying the weapons, the us administration said no weapons to ukraine, don't good. so that was a failure. and it's obvious. now we are in an even in a more dangerous situation, because russia is no strong enough and believes with the support of other countries, you can win this war. we'll see how that plays out. it's certainly going to be a difficult time of cold winter, especially for people and you're going to all 3 of you. thank you so much for being with us today to you. thank you so much for watching and remember that and can always watch our youtube videos searching and dw views, of course, and also all the to the point shows i'm playing, i guess, until next time. take care by the,

the, the searching for a lost world of water. decades ago, the arrow see, and whose biggest on was one of the mightiest lakes in the world. now, it's dried, a source of pollution havens deep in the desk. can this wasteland be turned into a tourist attraction? stobel in 30 minutes on d. w. an online scam using fake financial portals to steal billiards,

800000000 euros and damages nationwide charges despite the whole thing from the beginning of the client. so when they signed us to the end, everything was perfect. we actually came across as very credible with dream, fast money. i want more the top costs to everyone who wants to know more about the topics that concern us. about this story is beyond the headlines world in progress. the w cuts cost $1.00 small desk for a robot vacuum,

one giant leap for exploiting the ocean floor. cutting edge technology is i'm looking the potential of deep sea mining with this to on a research team will study the possible risk site in order to minimize that we have an opportunity to, to get it right before we start environmental activism. of skeptical rules fail billions to be made out to the entries deep. the greed dots, december 7th on d, w. the,

this is the, the, the news coming to you live from berlin. the israel from us truce is now underway. trucks are entering gaza with paid as part of the deal for the 4 day pause and finding 13 hostages that are being held, being held by home us are to be set free this afternoon. the .