don't see, we want to be the number one, for instance r a c o n. she disappears without the phrase secret type queen has been accused of folding victims on the top 10 list. the cartel leaders in murder is a financial thriller about the world's most wanted woman crypto queen stops december 30th on dw, the nearly 20. 2 months after russia invaded ukraine's much heralded counter offensive has failed to deliver the breakthrough. the key of expected claiming that russian forces are improving their positions. vladimir proteins, meanwhile, as dispatching more soldiers, weapons, and munitions to the battlefield. ukrainian forces and citizens are bracing for another tough winter with us support hanging in the balance presidents lensky warrants ukraine could lose without us house. meanwhile, russia has launched

a diplomatic offensive in the global south. and a hybrid attack on the west are question today. russia's war on ukraine will put in, get what she wants, the and it is a pleasure to welcome our guests here on to the point. we're afraid you got a is and associates fellow at the german council on foreign relations. the d g a, b. he's an expert on eastern europe and a mediation advisor on ukraine at the center for international peace operations. great to help you with us. and more and scotsman reports from eastern europe and currently ukraine for the german news magazine status. and finally, we are very pleased to welcome from london, intervene, oregon. she is a russian and us the good journalist co founder and deputy editor of i can tour

a dot argue and watch dog of the russian secret services activities. great, happy with us. every now and more it's we're hearing the world word stalemate mentioned more and more these days. do you think that term is justified? is this conflict edging towards something that you could call a frozen conflict? well, a frozen conflict would be uh, front line way. don't have the shooting anymore, but that's definitely not the case at the moment. what we see, basically since last november. so it's 2022 is the attrition of war. basically don't have a big movement of the front line anymore. neither of the sides can conquer any of the big cities or territories. but it's an attrition war from trenches to

trenches. the. the use of drones is very important at the moment. it's becoming more and more important. makes the battle bloodier even more. and yet it's an attrition war with uh, thousands of victims every month and actually at this moment no end in sight. i'm can i just ask you, because i know you have been reporting from ukraine, feel free to has also recently been there, but the cut or offensive. there were high expectations of it hasn't delivered any gains at all ukraine's kind of uh, unfortunately it is concerning the frontline, uh they haven't been a lot of gains. ukraine has gained some square kilometers, some square miles. the butts. uh, the big aim to push through to the as of the feet i haven't been reached. and of course, also because of these big expectations. i mean the landscape at the beginning as

the year talked about a year of victory. and this is why, but inside ukraine, the frustration is also a very big and it, rena, if, if i can go to you, i haven't been put in, has been looking and sounding pretty confident lately. should he be? how is how well assured is support at home. oh, it's not, uh, it's not an easy question because you know, uh and russia is a sort of thought on the machine and on that also thought energy and people on not a simple i'm not free to express themselves, especially in nowadays, in russia. people are frightened at all the time m like comp express themselves really bought. the last polls shows us is that uh, the main question was that people, russian, people want to ask futon is, when is a water bill? and so it's beans. is that his support a little bit?

so there's not a lot of people who are approval and put a support in terms of uh, in terms of continuing the war is not so strong as it used to be. and it rushes, pouring a tremendous amount of resources into this war effort. how long can it sustain that? uh, as long as it, as it needs to to be honest off. oh, not a lot of analysts. many of them, including me, fail to predict how strong zip which envision is and how good, how little to his economy is doing so far. the economy is still doing quite well and, and there are a lot of resources still a lot of resources that put him can kind of spend forms of war. he was successful to some of the fi, older sources into, into the military, industrial complex and russian military. industrial complex is much strong guys and

it used to be 2 years ago. so let's see how i know how it will go. but i think that she still has at least 6 or 8 months does out that and problem we've had this lead of nato's secretary general young stoughton bag recently said that the west should be prepared for bad news from ukraine. i'm quoting here, and the seem to discount the current stand off saying that wars go up and down. they have good and bad phases. yes, it's of course true. and the problem is how long the wall to wall goes bad for, for ukraine. and that is, that is a problem, but it's also a problem for us and we should be clear because not every thing is very nice in russia and in the long term. also putting knows that as a collective best is if he's really, really to a support ukraine for a long time. has a superiority in technology and also in financing that's clear. and that is

actually the case because why russia is now launching that hybrid media campaign. also is a global sauls to get the impression we are mighty, we can do everything and to, to bring uncertainty and intimidation into the rest of society. so let me ask you about that and we will come back to that global south outreach that he's been of the global tell us, i don't like i know in the us, but every time where is this the? but let me 1st ask you in regard to what stilton power has said, he basically went on to say in the same, in the same as a statement that we should be prepared to support ukraine in both good and bad times. but are we the us the senate has just torpedoed a $1000000000.00 aid package for ukraine. and you know, there's a doubt about the degree to which the u. s. the biggest supporter will be willing to maintain uh that support. yes. of course. and of course,

what i said is only true if the rest is really ready to support your credit for a long time. and it's not only because of liberating crime. yeah. and so what it is to defend to ukraine also simply the problem is i think that we still do not know what is the outcome in the fights into us. because we still have many republicans who are who are very willing to count against russia against pollutants, russia. so i think that is also part of a bond beginning, but it is of cause it makes the ukrainians on so such as a problem. and the 2nd problem is, what i see in europe. yes, we scaled up our support. yes, we already achieved very much. for example, germany now is the 2nd deliver of, of weapons lots. very interesting. however, we are not on the way that we really will have an important risible share which can compete with us in order to convince these republicans that it is the voice

continuing to support the war in your let's pick up on that important in a moment. but i would like to take a closer look 1st at the situation on the battlefield in ukraine. the us defense secretary recently said that russia has been badly weakened by the war, but at least for now that weakness is not readily apparent at the front lines. as an increasing amounts of lessons and more and more sole just russian president troops and wants to increase the number of troops and the russian armed forces by 170000 people to a total of 1300000 at the beginning of the 2nd twins of the war, russia remains strong. we are now fighting, not just for russia's freedom. what for the freedom of the whole world around there is a country that is now with the full front of the building. of pharaoh well do that without so silver and strong russia is no longer like a stable welled,

odom is possible, but which needs to be in the middle of the view as much to accomplish this person also, except time losses. his soldiers withstood the ukrainian counter offensive. they even went on the counter attack like and of the com. the russian army never seems to run the hour so that munitions, that's successful basle plans also include the increased use of drones and electronic wolf fat. on top of that cyber attacks using refugees as a means of existing pressure and propaganda patients, hybrid whole strategy is working despite international condemnation and sanctions. is russia getting stronger? and let me put that question to more it's and perhaps also ask you to talk about how we are seeing that in conjunction with the battle for of the data. now every, it's both sides have been sustaining very, very heavy losses. they are,

the ukranian government says its soldiers are standing their ground. is that your assessment? they are standing the ground, but especially ukraine has more and more problems to get more soldiers to recruit more soldiers inside the country because the people see what kind of war it is at the moment. and you don't want to gets one way. tickets into the trenches as possible. of course, if you're a man and you created today. so what i would say is what we need after the 21 months of a war is a realistic approach, a realistic approach that doesn't under estimate the feminine russia. but that also doesn't over estimates what ukraine can reach and what we can do for you cream . and i have the feeling, but especially the last year 2023 at sold. especially these problems have problems

that we also overestimated ukraine. we were thinking that it could, the, when the war and this year, but ukraine itself, they also over estimated what they could do and we under estimate to draw so, so this is what i mean. most of the key findings that i would get from this. yeah, definitely realistic approach would you agree? yes, but the realistic approach means also to, to differentiate why russia maybe has a momentum. i do not think that's a in quality really. it became stronger at the moment, but that can happen if the would not change strategically or you create a support for ukraine. you'll see, for example, the enough, the if goes that the is of course, much more last as long as the russian sites. so it is clear we have and of course the losses and i have to the degree of us missed the government to be the ukrainian . so we just came exhausted. that is a big problem of cost, but they are still not ready to give up. that is also very clear also in society. but what we should see is, yes, russia now has more than one nation, but excuse me,

is a rent out of munition. they have big problems a several time ago. actually, it was awfully munitions. they still have big problems, has mechanized briggs look who is going to have to do because it's only in front of people. go on foot to the front lines, not supported by a bigger make a nice because. so what i only want to say is we need to really on both sides. and we have to formulate such aims, which are realistic also when it comes to offensive. and also when it comes to defense in order to make really successes, which, which bring ukraine in a better position and bring to nat, makes into a fable fuel crate. so let me go over to irina, and ask you about the real situation for russian forces. the us national security council recently said that russia's heavy losses at of these are depressing,

the russian troops morale and they claimed that russian commanders were threatening to execute entire units if they retreated from ukrainian artillery fire. can you tell us whether that is true that claim, and 4th, the mood is amongst the russian forces hall or the, i don't know whether it's true or not, but you know, is that all in, in the russian past is a sort of tune and they used this mess that's and i'm in this my sons, i have all successful and if i'm in at least is at the thought it was paid. um, but now i don't seems that uh does that current pool is a little more seconds. so harsh mess ups could be such that successful to some extent, but you can use it every day. but to me so far, um, put his position as

a reference position on the front line seems kind of strong. i'm. i'm very sorry to, to, to say is this. but because i found a lot of resources, including people, resources, as a differential between, between as of last and ross, right is that is the last is usually can about the soul just above the people above the human resources. but russia does not, as a criminal, don't pay a lot of attention to how many people it's sacrificed as a buckle failed. and it seems besides that russian public does who cat a lot to. so that's the difference. and we'll come back to the way the rest of the public sees it. but move for you. let me ask you this. this conflict has become a war of attrition. as more it said in his 1st uh, answer earlier. does that automatically give russia with its size and its resources, the advantage? and how long can russia sustain the kind of of spending,

but it's doing it. if you count national security and police, russia actually is heading towards spending 10 percent of its g. d. p is that sustainable? i think it is sustainable in the, in a certain time for certain periods, but, but not the, not automatically for a long time. and so it is actually why russia now is on seeing these campaigns because they know if the west will decide for more support technology and financing of ukraine. they know that in the long run, russia is because then, so best, not, of course, because then ukraine, you'll have to, to be clear here. yes, of course, but restaurant when it comes to pass. nope. and it's comes to resources is more, might ease and ukraine. but not if you repeat and us will be picking your brain for a long time. so it's a 1st thing and let me make a little remark on said war of attrition. that is not completely true. we should never the less take. also the people look on the from science and we see of course

that ukrainians manage to go through the sort of leaky line on certain points. a problem is ukraine has lots of support of got craft, and russia has a full superiority in the year old. was occupied territories and so it is a problem, but that problem can resolve in the next time. that's much more better for ukraine . the 2nd point is, please do not forget that ukraine achieved to reopen as a humanitarian corey door for the crane export. and for the export of goods of ukraine, which is very important because they could push back very much. so russian blacks the fleet and they could really substantially home as the restroom facilities onto the parts one question. and then i want to shift our focus to the diplomatic side, but russia is not only ramping up production of military hardware and ammunition. it is also investing massively in drones and recently launch the biggest strong

strikes since the invasion began. very briefly, if you would, what effect is that having on operations on the ground? well, i mean, of course we see more drones the attacking ukrainian cities. but the, i would say that's a ukrainian air defense. it's coping quite well with that. but the more important is the drone warfare or over the trenches. it's is it's hers least the frontline to kill zone where basically soldiers can't get out of the trenches without the getting killed. and there is another important factor. if you need the pots for drones, you don't have to get pumped, you don't have a pot on the front to protect your things which should go forward. yeah, yeah, definitely. thank you, irina. so let's move on to talk about the role of diplomacy and all of this. the quote from protein that we heard in our report just now was part of a speech in which he depicted russia as a champion, pushing back against the hedge,

a monic west. how many countries of the global south are actually buying into this message? and what does that mean for russia's war effort? it does things that's a lot of conscious around a mile away is saying want because the author to come contracts too many for as in the as a new all they need money is a need in the last months i'm russia i ran to, to provide as a support too many to some african countries and because a lot of african refugees, they need a city security. um do you know, walk in the opposite, rock the rest of minnesota lot. russian pride with miller that a company provide some offer because there seems to be a security based protection. so that's why it tells, pretend, spends a criminal narrative is more come in that often countries. but i mean,

is it don't buys these, they just need his support on his mind. you are saying that's probably true for the latin american countries. so i'm huge onto medicaid, is of interest right now of this concept for uh for some very genuine reasons. also is better helpful here more it's been put in this just made a rare and very quick trip to the united arab emirates and saudi arabia and to declare the relations with the em or etc at all time high as he said, does that have anything to do with the fact that numerous russian companies have now made you a either temporary base and are using it essentially to evade western sanctions or? well, i think we're getting to the point where we have to admit that's if you want a more realistic approach. that's the, the, the, the power of the west is very limited. we thought at the beginning of this conflict that our sanctions codes leads to the fall of russia somehow. but we have to admit

the 21 months after the beginning of the war. but actually, there are lots of countries in the world who maybe they are not russia friendly, but they tell the west, this is not our conflict. we wants to stay out of this. we won't, don't want to get any negative impact from this the, on our economy. we will cooperate. but everyone and this is a very different situation, maybe from 20 or 25 years ago. just the time. however, i do not fully agree this sense. please takes effects look at the summit with us, so there's a sole controlled assault and must cause the african summit. many state these us did not come as they did into for me. yes. so piece, so it was quite disappointing. and what you also see is that when we now speak this uh with brazil and sells in america about some mecca. so an agreement that

this actually, what's the west still has the potential to do also with india, to give them something concrete substantial and to say, okay, if he, if he makes that agreement, we can, for example, also speak by some unique not to take. so essentially see, but please keep to some routes. so we need much more diplomatic investment because what putting the class about the globe itself is it is only a pop is a realistic result. and the other thing is to find out more, it's when we look at support or lack there of from the west. what difference do you think that the were in gaza is making? is it diverting western attention isn't attention and potential. the also resources at this very critical moment when you create most need some um, of course the, the, the attention is a very important resource. and what we saw, of course, since the beginning of the guys, the war is that the attention is going away from ukraine. also because of the fact

that from you can, you don't have the so many good news as i'm home and, and yeah, of course the tension is distracted from ukraine. but also i would say that the gaza war is more of a problem from the west. because you have a situation where israel is bonding at the gaza strip. there are heavy civilian casualties. and of course in many countries of the world whom we told over the last 2 years that russia is bad and the more really bad they ask now. okay, what is the israel doing at the moment? so morally, this war is also a big problem for the west, joe biden, to abide and said when the senate defeated the aid package for ukraine, that it could certainly become a big problem for the us as well. saying that it could be that we say american

soldiers fighting russian soldiers, if the u. s. thesis to provide support the free do you think that will change any mines if what i didn't the of if, if a lot of job i, instead of the u. s. continues to deny additional support to ukraine. it. okay. it, well, could be that hotel and we'll get what he wants and that the u. s. could warrant of fighting russia. i think that is actually what we should still understand. yes. that is the do not support. now ukraine, it is also a problem for our security for the american security and finds a way. it's also important for the republicans, because if you want really to contact china, you'll also need to come to contain china instrument in euro. that's important at the end of the gaza, very important. it's also about geo politics. please do not forget the fuel and has the concrete interest in his basis as ends in the east. that's also very important . i'm going to not go there because we have very little time left on the clock. and

i would very, very, if you'd like to, to come back to the point about morale that you made earlier. irina, how do people in russia and especially mothers in russia see the prospect of this conflict? continuing, we seen mothers demonstrating in ukraine and isolated demonstrations in russia itself. how high is the dissatisfaction there? so as i can size a do such as function in russia is not divided huge because for him, for the last, for the last small says for him, for most successful to recruit most people from on in, on trucks, stores so on. my bill is ation stopped. for a while, and people, what happened is that on sofa, a sofa shoes is fine, is a truck. those people are fighting for money, so they have family else such as 5 business money. and as that's live and on time,

a lot of process against the war and more, it's those protests in ukraine itself. could they undermine the war effort? one sentence once that, of course, if the war continues in this attrition mode to this problem will get the worst. thank you very much to all of you for being with us today. thank you. out there for turning in the

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