the musicians under the swastika, a documentary about this sounds of power, inspiring story about survival of the home. i get the tennis, i was the only one, usually in nazi germany, watch now on youtube dw documentary. the nearly 22 months after russia invaded ukraine's much heralded counter offensive has failed to deliver the breakthrough. the key of expected claiming that russian forces are improving their positions. let him your proteins, meanwhile, as dispatching more soldiers, weapons, and munitions to the battlefield. ukrainian forces and citizens are bracing for another tough winter with us support hanging in the balance presidents lensky warrants ukraine could lose without us house. meanwhile, russia has launched a diplomatic offensive in the global south, and a hybrid attack on the west are question today. russia's war on ukraine,

we'll put in, get what she wants, the and it is a pleasure to welcome our guests here on to the point we're feed uga is and associates fellow at the german council on foreign relations. the d g, a, b. he's an expert on eastern europe and a mediation advisor on ukraine at the center for international peace operations. great to help you with us. and more it's got some reports from eastern europe and currently ukraine for the german news magazine status. and finally, we're very pleased to welcome from london if he navarro gun. she is a russian investigative journalist co founder and deputy editor of ogden, tour a dot r u to watch dog as the russians secret services. activities. great to have

you with us. every now and more it's we're hearing the world word stalemate mentioned more and more these days. do you think that term is justified? is this conflict edging towards something that you could call a frozen conflict as well as frozen conflict? uh would be uh, frontline way, don't have the shooting anymore, but that's definitely not the case at the moment. what we see, basically since last november. so it's 20. 22 is the attrition of war. basically don't have a big movement of the front line anymore. neither of the sides can conquer any big cities or territories, but it's an attrition of war from trenches to trenches. the. the use of drones is very important at the moment. it's becoming more and more important. makes the

better blog or even more. and yet it's an patrician war with uh, thousands of victims every month. and actually at this moment no end in sight. i'm can i just ask you, because i know you have been reporting from ukraine. the for you to has also recently been there, but the counter offensive. there were high expectations of it. has it delivered any gains at all ukraine's kind of uh, unfortunately it is concerning the frontline, uh they haven't been a lot of gains. ukraine has gained some square kilometers, some square miles. the butts. uh the, the big aim to push through to the as of the see i haven't been reached. and of course, also because of these big expectations. i mean the landscape at the beginning of the year talked about in year victory. and this is why, but inside ukraine, the frustration is also a very big and it, rena, if, if i can go to you latin,

been put in, has been looking and sounding pretty confident lately. should he be? how is how well assured is support at home on. so it's not, uh, it's not an easy question because, you know, uh m, russia is, uh, uh, sort of thought individually. um, on that uh, sort of thought energy and people on not a simple and not free to express themselves. and especially in nowadays, in the rush of people are frightened at all is the time m like comp express themselves really bought. the last polls shows us is that uh, the main question. some people, russian, people want to ask fulton is when is a water bill? and so it's beans is that she's support a little bit. so there's not a lot of people who are approval and put

a support in terms of uh, in terms of continuing the war is not so strong as it used to be. and rushes pouring a tremendous amount of resources into this war effort. how long can it sustain that as long as it, as it needs to to be honest off. oh, a lot of all is many of them including me, fail to predict how strong is it puts and resume is and how good, how go to the his economy is doing so far as the economy is still doing quite well and, and there are a lot of resources to a lot of resources that put him can come spend on the war. he was successful to some of the fi, older sources into, into administered industrial complex. and russian military, industrial complex is much strong guys and it used to be 2 years ago. so let's see

how i don't know how it will go, but i think that she still has at least 6 or 8 months. does out that and problem we've had this lead of nato's secretary general young stoughton bag recently said that the west should be prepared for bad news from ukraine. i'm quoting here and the see the discount, the current stand off saying that wars go up and down. they have good and bad phases. yes, it's of course true. and the problem is how long the wall, the wall goes bad for, for ukraine. and that is, that is a problem. but it's also a problem for russia. we should be clear because not every thing is very nice in russia, in the long term. also, pooty knows that is a collective. this is if he's really, really to a support ukraine for a long time. has a superiority in technology and also in financing that's clear. and that is actually the case because why russia is now launching. that hybrid media campaign

also is a global sauls. to get the impression we are mighty. we can do everything and to, to bring uncertainty and intimidation into the rest of society. so let me ask you about that and we will come back to that global south outreach that he's been to the global tell us, i don't like, i know nobody does, but everyone the same time. where is this? so the, but let me 1st ask you uh uh, in regard to what stilton power has said. he basically went on to say in the same uh, in the same as a statement that we should be prepared to support ukraine in both good and bad times. but are we the us the senate has just torpedoed a $1000000000.00 aid package for ukraine and you know, there's doubt about the degree to which the u. s. the biggest supporter will be willing to maintain that support. yes, of course. and of course, what i said is only true, it's the best is really ready to support your credit for

a long time. and it's not only because of liberating crime, yes. and so what it is to defend to ukraine also simply the problem is i think that we still do not know what is the outcome in the fights into us. because we still have many republicans, well, who are very willing to count against russia against pollutants, russia. so i think that is also part of a bond beginning, but it is of cause it makes the ukrainians on. so that is a problem. and the 2nd problem is, what i see in europe. yes, we scaled up our support. yes, we already achieved very much. for example, germany now is the 2nd deliver of, of weapons lots. very interesting. however, we are not on the way that we really will have an important visible share which can compete with us in order to convince these republicans that it is, was continuing to support the war in europe. let's pick up on that important in

a moment. but i would like to take a closer look 1st at the situation on the battlefield in ukraine. the us defense secretary recently said that russia has been badly weakened by the war, but at least for now that weakness is not readily apparent at the front lines or an increasing amounts of lessons and more and more solo just russian. president pearson wants to increase the number of troops and the russian armed forces by 170000 people to a total of 1300000. at the beginning of the 2nd, when tell of the war russia remain strong, we are now fighting, not just full rushes, freedom will look for the freedom of the whole world. for them, there is a country that is now what the full front of the building of pharaoh. well, do the without the silver and strong russia is no longer take a stable, weld odom as possible, which needs to be in the middle of the view as much to accomplish this person. also,

except pine losses. his soul just which stood the ukrainian counter offensive. they even went on the counter attack like enough d account. the russian army never seems to run out of them. munitions. the successful battle plans also include the increased use of drones and electronic wolf fat. on top of that cyber attacks using refugees as a means of existing pressure and propaganda patients, hybrid whole strategy is working despite to international condemnation and sanctions. is russia guessing strong go? let me put that question to more it's and perhaps also ask you to talk about how we are seeing that in conjunction with the battle for of the data. now it's both sides have been sustaining very, very heavy losses. they are, the ukranian government says its soldiers are standing their ground. is that your

assessment? they are standing the ground, but especially ukraine has more and more problems to get more soldiers to recruit more soldiers inside the country because the people see what kind of war it is at the moment. and you don't once to gets one way. tickets into the trench as possible. of course, if you're a man and you're creating today. so what i would say is what we need after the 21 month of, of war is a realistic approach, a realistic approach that's dozens under estimate the enemy, russia. but that also doesn't over estimates what ukraine can reach and what we can do for you. crane. and i have the feeling, but especially the last year 2023 at sold, especially these problems problems that we also overestimate it's ukraine. we were

thinking that it could, the, when the war and this year, but the ukraine itself, they also over estimated what they could do and we under estimate the dresser. so this is what, uh, most of the key findings that i would get from this. yeah, definitely realistic approach would you agree? yes, but the realistic approach means also to, to differentiate why russia maybe has a momentum. i do not think that's a in quality really. it became stronger at the moment, but that can happen if the would not change strategically or you create a support for ukraine. you'll see, for example, you know, if the, if goes that the is of course, much more last as long as the russian side. so it is clear we have and of course the losses and i have to the degree of us missed the government to be ukraine. and so we just came exhausted. that is a big problem of cost, but they are still not ready to give up. that is also very clear also in society. but what we should see is, yes, russia now has more than one nation, but excuse me, they run out of one dish and they had big problems

a several time ago. actually it was optimal, the munitions they still have big problems is mechanized briggs look who is going to have to do because it's only in front of you. people go on foot to the front lines. not supported by a bigger make a nice because. so what i only want to say is we need real as on both sides. and we have to formulate such aims, which are realistic also when it comes to offensive. and also when it comes to defense in order to make really successes, which, which bring ukraine in a better position and bring to nat, mix into favor of you. okay. so let me go over to irina and ask you about the real situation for russian forces. the us national security council recently said that russ, it's heavy losses at of difficult or depressing the russian troops morale. and they claimed that russian commanders were threatening to execute entire units if they

retreated from ukrainian artillery fire. can you tell us whether that is true, that claim, and 4th, the mood is amongst the russian forces hall? i don't know whether it's true or not, but you know, is that all in, in the russian past is this sort of to you and in as a used this mess that's and i'm in this mess i've all successful. and if i'm in, it least is at the thought it was paid um, but no, i don't. seems that uh that current floor is a little more seconds. so harsh mess that's could be such that successful to some extent, but you can use it every day. but to me so far, um put his position as a reference position on the, on the front line seems kind of strong. i'm,

i'm very sorry to, to, to say is this. but it seems they found a lot of sources including people or sources as a differential between, between us, of last rush, right, is that the last is usually can about the soul, just about the people about the human resources. but russia does not, as a criminal, don't pay a lot of attention to how many people it's sacrificed as a buckle failed. and it seems besides that a russian public does who cat a lot to. so that's the difference. and we'll come back to the way the rest of the public sees it, but move for you. let me ask you this. this conflict has become a war of attrition. as more it said in his 1st uh, answer earlier. does that automatically give russia with its size and its resources, the advantage? and how long can russia sustain the kind of of spending, but it's doing it. if you count national security and police,

russia actually is heading towards spending 10 percent of its g d p. if that's sustainable, i think it is sustainable in the, in a certain time for certain periods, but, but not, not automatically for a long time. and that is actually why russia now is one thing is these campaigns because they know if the west will decide for more support technology and financing of ukraine. they knows that in the long run, russia is because then, so best, not, of course, because then ukraine, you'll have to to be clear. yeah. yes. of course the restaurant when it comes to pass. note when it comes to resources is more, might even ukraine. but one question, and then i want to shift our focus to the diplomatic side. but russia is not only ramping up production of military hardware and ammunition. it is also investing massively in drones and recently launch the biggest strong strikes since the invasion began. very briefly. if you would, what effect is that having on operations on the ground?

well, i mean, of course we see more drones the attacking ukrainian cities. but the, i would say that's a ukrainian air defense is coping quite well with that. but the more important is the drone warfare over the trends of it's isn't it terms least the front line to the kill zone, where basically soldiers can't get out of the trenches without the getting killed. and there is another important factor. if you need a pot for drones, you don't have to get a pump. your don't hesitate, but on the front to protect your things which should go forward. yeah, yeah, definitely. thank you, irina. so let's move on to talk about the role of diplomacy and all of this. the quote from protein that we heard in our report just now was part of a speech in which he depicted russia as a champion, pushing back against the hedge, a monic west. how many countries of the global south are actually buying into

this message? and what does that mean for russia's war effort? it's a does things that's a lot of conscious around a mile away, as i'm saying, want, because the author to come contracts too many for as in the as a new oh, does i need money? is a need in the last months, and russia are ready to go for life as a support too many to some african countries and because a lot of african refugees they need, uh, city security um do you know, walk in the opposite rock to do that for us and minnesota lot russian pride with miller that a company provide some offer because there seems to be a security based protection. so that's why it tells hotel spends a criminal narrative is more come in that often countries. but i mean, is it done by these is i just need his support on his mind. you are saying that's

probably true for the last time i made a conference. so i'm huge on to american is reach us right now. is this concept for uh, for some very genuine reasons also is very helpful here. more it's a put in this just made a rare and very quick trip to the united arab emirates and saudi arabia and to declare the relations with the em or etc. and i all time high as he said, does that have anything to do with the fact that numerous russian companies have now made you a either temporary base and are using a centrally to evade western sanctions? or? well, i think we're getting to a point where we have to admit that's if you want a more realistic approach. that's the, the, the, the power of the west is very limited. we thought at the beginning of this conflict that our sanctions codes leads to the fall of russia somehow. but we have to admit

the 21 months after the beginning of the war. but actually, there are lots of countries in the world who maybe they are not russia friendly, but they tell the west, this is not our conflict. we wants to stay out of this. we won't, don't want to get any negative impact from this the, on our economy. we will cooperate. but everyone, and this is a very different situation, maybe from 20 or 25 years ago. just the time. however, i do not fully believe this sense. please take the effects, look at the summit with us. so there's a sole controlled assault in most colors. the african summit, many state the does not come as they did into for me. yes. so piece, so it was quite disappointing. and what you also see is, that's when we now speak this uh with brazil and sells in america about some mecca . so an agreement that is actually what's the west still has the potential to do also with india, to give them something concrete substantial and to say, okay,

if he, if he makes that agreement, we can, for example, also speak by some you'll need not to take. so essentially feed, but please keep to summer with so we need much more diplomatic investment because what 14 declared is about the globe itself. that is only a part is a realistic result. and the other thing is to find them more. it's when we look at support or lack there of from the west. what difference do you think that the were in gaza is making? is it diverting western attention isn't attention and potentially also resources at this very critical moment when you create most need some. this is, of course the, the attention is a very important resource and what we saw for us since the beginning of the war is that to the attention is going away from ukraine also because of the fact that from

you came, you don't have the so many good news at the moment, and yeah, of course the tension is distracted from ukraine. but also i would say that the cause of war is the moral problem from the west. because you have a situation where israel is bonding at the gaza strip. there are heavy civilian casualties, and of course in many countries of the world whom we told over the last 2 years that russia is bad and the more really bad they ask now. okay, what is the israel doing at the moment? so morally, this war is also a big problem for the west, joe biden, to abide and said when the senate defeated the aid package for ukraine, that it could certainly become a big problem for the us as well. saying that it could be that we see american soldiers fighting russian soldiers. if the u. s. c says to provide support the free

do you think that will change any mines? is what i didn't the of if, if a rock job i, instead of us continues to deny additional support to ukraine, it okay. it, well, could be that hotel and we'll get what he wants and that the us could warrant and fighting russia. i think that is actually what we should still understand. yes, that is the do not support. now ukraine, it is also a problem for our security for the american security and finds a way it's also important for the republicans, because if you ones really to contact china, you'll also need to come to contain china instruments and euro. that's important at the end of the gaza, very important. it's also about geo politics. please do not forget the fuel and has the concrete interest in his basis as ends in the east. that's also very important . i'm going to not go there because we have very little time left on the clock. and i would very rarely, if you'd like to, to come back to the point about morale that you made earlier. irina,

how do people in russia and especially mothers in russia see the prospect of this conflict? continuing, we seen mothers demonstrating in ukraine and isolated demonstrations in russia itself. how high is the dissatisfaction there? oh, um. as i can size a do such as function in russia is not a lot of huge because put him off as a loss for the last small says for him, for most successful to recruit most people from on in from truck stores. so on, my bill is ation stopped for a while. and people what happened is that on sofa, a sofa shoes, he's fine with his truck. those people are fighting for money. so that family, how satisfied is this money? and as that's live and on time, a lot of process against the war and more,

it's those protests in ukraine itself. could they undermine the war effort? one sentence once that, of course, if the war continues in this attrition mode, this problem will get worse. thank you very much to all of you for being with us today. thank you. out there for turning in the

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