a made up, we want to be the number one, press, the currency i'll do, then she disappears without the trace on the top 10 list of cartel leaders in the financial thriller about the world's most one sort of woman. crypto queen stops december 30th on dw nearly 22 months after russia invaded ukraine's much heralded counter offensive has failed to deliver the breakthrough. the key of expected claiming that russian forces are improving their positions. vladimir proteins meanwhile, as dispatching more soldiers, weapons, and your initiatives to the battlefield. ukrainian forces and citizens are bracing for another task. winter, with us support hanging in the balance presidents lensky warrants ukraine could lose without us house. meanwhile, russia has launched a diplomatic offensive in the global south and a hybrid attack on the west. our question today,

russia's war on ukraine will put in, get what she wants, the and it is a pleasure to welcome our guests here on to the point. we're pre julia is an associate fellow at the german council on foreign relations. the d g a, b. he's an expert on eastern europe and a mediation advisor on ukraine at the center for international peace operations. great to have you with us. and more had scotsman reports from eastern europe and currently ukraine for the german news magazine status. and finally, we are very pleased to welcome from london intervene of burrell gun. she is a russian investigative journalist, co founder and deputy editor of ogden tour a dot r u. it's

a watch dog as the russian secret services activities. great to have you with us. every now and more it's, we're hearing the world or the stalemate mentioned more and more these days. do you think that term is justified? is this conflict edging towards something that you could call a frozen conflict as well as frozen conflict? uh would be uh, frontline way, don't have the shooting anymore, but that's definitely not the case at the moment. what we see, basically since last november. so a 2022 is the address of the war. basically don't have a, a big movement of the front line anymore. neither of the sides can conquer any big cities or territories. but it's an attrition of war. from trenches to trenches. the, the use of drones is very important at the moment is becoming more and more

important. makes the battle bloodier even more. and yet it's an patrician war with uh, thousands of victims every month. and um, actually at this moment, no, and inside and can i just ask you, because i know you have been reporting from ukraine though for you to has also recently been there, but the counter offensive. there were high expectations of it hasn't delivered any gains at all ukraine's kind of, uh, unfortunately, it is concerning the front line. uh, they haven't been a lot of gains. ukraine has gained some square kilometers, some square miles. uh, butts. uh, the, the big aim to push through to the, as of the see i haven't been reached. and of course, also because of these big expectations. i mean, the landscape at the beginning of the year talked about a year victory. and this is why, but inside ukraine, the frustration is also very big. and it's irina if, if i can go to you latin,

been put in has been looking and sounding pretty confident lately. should he be? how is how well assured is support at home on it's, it's not, uh, it's not an easy question because you know, uh and russia is a sort of thought on the machine and on that a sort of thought energy and people on not a simple, i'm not free to express themselves, especially in nowadays, in russia, people are frightened at all the time. m like comp express themselves really bought . the last polls shows us is that uh, the main question was that people, russian, people want to ask fulton is, when is a water bill? and so it's beans. is that his support a little bit? so there's not a lot of people who are approval and put a support in terms of uh,

in terms of continuing the war is not so strong as it used to be. and it rushes, pouring a tremendous amount of resources into this war effort. how long can it sustain that? uh, as long as it, as it needs to to be almost off o a lot. the final is many of them, including me, fail to predict how strong is it puts in, resume, ease, and how good, how go to the his economy is doing so far. uh, the economy is still doing quite well and, and is there a lot of resources still a lot of resources that put him can come spend forms of war. he was successful to some of the fi, older sources into, into it military, industrial complex and russian military industrial complex is much strong guys and it used to be 2 years ago. so let's see how i don't know how it will go,

but i think that she still has at least 6 or 8 months. does out that and problem we've had this lead of nato's secretary general young stoughton bag recently said that the west should be prepared for bad news from ukraine. i'm quoting here and the seem to discount the current stand off saying that wars go up and down. they have good and bad phases. yes, it's of course true. and the problem is how long the wall to wall goes bad for, for ukraine. and that is, that is a problem. but it's also a problem for russia. we should be clear because not everything is very nice in russia and in the long term. also putting knows that as a collective best is if he's really, really to a support ukraine for a long time. has a superiority in technology and also in financing that's clear. and that is actually the case because why russia is now launching. that hybrid media campaign

also is a global sauls. to get the impression we are mighty. we can do everything and to, to bring uncertainty and intimidation into the rest of society. so let me ask you about that and we will come back to that global south outreach that he's been of the global tell us, i don't like, i know the us, but every time what is this the? but let me 1st ask you in regard to what stilton power has said, he basically went on to say in the same, in the same as a statement that we should be prepared to support ukraine in both good and bad times. but are we the us the senate has just torpedoed a $1000000000.00 aid package for ukraine. and i, you know, there's a doubt about the degree to which the u. s. the biggest supporter will be willing to maintain that support. yes, of course. and of course, what i said is only true,

it's the best is really ready to support your credit for a long time. and it's not only because of liberating crime. yeah. and so what it is to defend to ukraine also simply the problem is i think that we still do not know what is the outcome in the fights into us. because we still have many republicans who uh, who are very willing to count against russia against pollutants, russia. so i think that is also part of a bond beginning, but it is of cause it makes the ukrainians on so such as a problem. and the 2nd problem is, what i see in europe. yes, we scaled up our support. yes, we already achieved very much. for example, germany now is the 2nd deliver of, of weapons lots. very interesting. however, we are not on the way that we really will have an important risible share which can compete with us in order to convince these republicans that it is voice continuing to support the war in your let's pick up on that important in a moment,

but i would like to take a closer look 1st at the situation on the battlefield in ukraine. the us defense secretary recently said that russia has been badly weakened by the war, but at least for now that weakness is not readily apparent at the front lines. an increasing amounts of lessons and more and more solo just russian president troops and wants to increase the number of troops in the russian armed forces by 170000 people to a total of 1300000 at the beginning of the 2nd twins of the war russia remains strong. we are now fighting, not just for russia's freedom, but for the freedom of the whole world around there is a country that is now with the full front of the building, of pharaoh. well, do that without a silver and strong russia, it is no longer like a stable welled, odom is possible, but which needs to be in the middle of the view as much to accomplish this person.

also, except pine losses. his soldiers, which stood the ukrainian counter offensive, they even went on the counter attack like and of the account. the russian army never seems to run out so that munitions, that successful battle plans also include the increased use of drones and electronic wolf fat. on top of that cyber attacks using refugees as a means of existing pressure and propaganda patients, hybrid whole strategy is working despite international condemnation and sanctions. is russia getting stronger? and let me put that question to more it's and perhaps also ask you to talk about how we are seeing that in conjunction with the battle for of the data. now every, it's both sides have been sustaining very, very heavy losses. they are, the ukranian government says its soldiers are standing their ground. is that your

assessment? they are standing the ground, but especially ukraine has more and more problems to get more soldiers to recruit more soldiers inside the country because the people see what kind of war it is at the moment. and you don't want to gets one way. tickets into the trenches as possible. of course, if you're a man and you're creating today. so what i would say is what we need after the so 21 months of a war is a realistic approach, a realistic approach that's dozens under estimate the family, russia. but that also doesn't over estimates what you crane can reach and what we can do for you cream. and i have the feeling, but especially the last year 2023 at sold. especially these problems have problems that we also overestimate it's ukraine. we were thinking that it could, the,

when the war and this year, but ukraine itself, they also over estimated what they could do and we under estimate the dresser. so this is what i hit those other key findings that i would get from this. yes. with realistic approach, would you agree? yes, but the realistic approach means also to, to differentiate why or russia may be, has a momentum. i do not think that's a in quality really. it became stronger at the moment, but that can happen if he would not change strategically or you create a support for ukraine. you'll see, for example, enough, this goes, that is of course, much more last as long as the russian side. so it is clear we have and of course the losses and i have to the degree of this miss the government to be the ukranian . so we just came exhausted. that is a big problem of cost, but they are still not ready to give up. that is also very clear also in society. but what we should see is, yes, russia now has more than one nation, but excuse me, is

a rent out of munition. they had big problems of several time ago. actually it was awfully munitions. they still have big problems, has mechanized briggs look who is going to up, dave, because it's only in frontier people go on foot to the front lines, not supported by a big and make a nice because. so what i only want to say is we need to really on both sides. and we have to formulate such aims, which are realistic also when it comes to offensive. and also when it comes to defense in order to make really successes, which, which bring ukraine in a better position and bring to nat, mix in the favor of ukraine. so let me go over to irina, and ask you about the real situation for russian forces. the us national security council recently said that russ, it's heavy losses at of disk are depressing. the russian troops morale and they claimed that russian commanders were threatening to execute entire units if they

retreated from ukrainian artillery fire. can you tell us whether that is true, that claim, and 4th, the mood is amongst the russian forces hall? i don't know whether it's true or not, but you know, that's all in, in the russian past. is this sort of to you and in as a used this mess that's and i'm in this message i've all successful and if i mean it least is at the thought it was paid. but no, i don't. seems that uh does that current pool is a little more seconds so harsh mess that's could be such that successful to some extent, but you can use it every day. but to me so far, um, put his position as a reference position on the, on the front lines seems kind of strong. i'm,

i'm very sorry to, to, to say is this. but it seems they found a lot of sources including people or sources as a difference between between as of last and the roster is that the last is usually cat about the soul. just about the people about the human resources. but russia does not, as a criminal, don't pay a lot of attention to how many people, it's sacrifice and it's a buckle failed. and it seems, besides that russian public does who cast a lot to. so that's the difference. and we'll come back to the way the rest of the public sees it. but move for you. let me ask you this. this conflict has become a war of attrition. as more it said in his 1st uh, answer earlier. does that automatically give russia with its size and its resources, the advantage? and how long can rush to sustain the kind of of spending, but it's doing it. if you count national security and police,

russia actually is heading towards spending 10 percent of its g d p. if that sustainable. i think it is sustainable, you know, in a 2nd time for certain periods but, but not, not automatically for a long time. and that is actually why russia now is one things east companions, because they know if the west will decide for more support technology and financing of ukraine. they know that in the long run, russia is because then to best, not, of course, because then ukraine, you'll have to, to be clear here. yes, of course, but rush out when it comes to pass. nope. and it's, comes to resources is more, might ease in ukraine, but not if you repeat and us will be making ukraine for a long time since the 1st thing and let me make a little remark on said war of attrition. that is not completely true. we should never the less take also a deeper look on the from science and receipt of costs that ukrainians manage to go

through. so sort of, we can live on certain points. a problem is ukraine has lots of support of got craft, and russia has a full superiority in the air over the occupied territories. and so it is a problem. but that problem can resolve in the next time that's of much more better for ukraine. the 2nd point is, please do not forget that ukraine achieved to reopen the humanitarian corey door for the crane export and for the next part of goods of ukraine, which is very important because they could push back very much. so russian blakeslee fleet, and they could really substantially home as the russian facilities on the c sports . one question, and then i want to shift our focus to the diplomatic side. but russia is not only ramping up production of military hardware and ammunition. it is also investing massively in drones and recently launch the biggest strong strikes since the invasion began very briefly if you would. what effect is that having on operations

on the ground? well, i mean, of course we see more drones attracting ukrainian cities. but the, i would say that's a ukrainian air defense. it's coping quite well with that. but the more important is the drone warfare over the trench of it's isn't it terms, least the frontline to kill zone where basically soldiers can't get out of the trenches without the getting killed. and that is another important factor. if you need the pots for drones, you don't have to get a pump. your don't hesitate, but on the front to protect your things, which would go forward. yeah, yeah, yeah, thank you, irina so let's move on to talk about the role of diplomacy and all of this, the quote from protein that we heard in our report just now was part of a speech in which he depicted russia as a champion, pushing back against the hedge, a monic west, how many countries of the global south are actually buying into this message?

and what does that mean for russia's war effort? it's a, i don't sense that's a lot of conscious around a mile away is saying, but because the author to come contreras, that to me for as in the, is a new all they need money is a need in advice, months and russia are ready to go for life as a support too many to some african countries and because a lot of african refugees they need uh city security. um, do you know walk in there on that? rock the rest of minnesota, a lot russian pride with me that a company provide some offer cuz they're usually in these security and base protection. so that's why to tell us patel spends a criminal narrative is walk him in the office on contracts. but i mean, is it done by is these is i just need his support on his mind. you are saying that's probably true for the last time i made a good contrast,

so i'm huge onto america is reach us, right. i love this. com. so for uh, for some very genuine reasons also is better helpful. here more it's put in is just made a rare and very quick trip to the united arab emirates and saudi arabia, and he declared the relations with the em or etc. and i all time high as he said, does not have anything to do with the fact that numerous russian companies have now made you a either temporary base and are using it essentially to evade western sanctions. or, well, i think we're getting to a point where we have to admit that if you want a more realistic approach, that's the, the, the, the power of the west is very limited. we thought at the beginning of this conflict that our sanctions codes leads to the fall of russia somehow. but we have to admit

21 months after the beginning of the war. but actually, there are lots of countries in the world who maybe they are not russia friendly, but they tell the west, this is not our conflict. we wants to stay out of this. we won't, don't want to get any negative impact from this the, on our economy. we will cover it. but everyone, and this is a very different situation, maybe from 20 or 25 years ago. just the time. however, i do not fully agree visit peace, takes effects, look at the summit with us. so there's a sole controlled assault and must cause the african summit. many state these are not to come as they did in the form of yes. so piece that it was quite disappointing. and what you also see is that when we now speak with uh with for zillow and sells in america about some mecca. so agreement that this actually, what's the west still has the potential to do also with india,

to give them something concrete substantial and to say, okay, if he, if he makes that agreement, we can, for example, also speak by some unique not to take. so essentially see, but please keep to summer with so we need much more diplomatic investment because what 14 declares about the globe itself, that is only a pop is a realistic result. and the other thing is probably more, it's from the look at support or lack there of from the west. what difference do you think that the war in gaza is making? is it diverting western attention is intention and potentially also resources at this very critical moment when you create most need some. so of course the, the attention is a very important resource. and what we saw, of course, since the beginning of the gaza war is that to the attention is going away from ukraine also because of the fact that from you can,

you don't have for so many good news as i'm home. and, and yeah, of course the, the, the tension is distracted from ukraine. but also i would say that the cause of war is a moral problem from the west. or because you have a situation where israel is bomb being at the gaza strip. there are heavy civilian casualties, and of course in many countries of the world who we told over the last 2 years that russia is bad and the more really bad they ask now. okay, what is the israel doing at the moment? so morally, this war is also a big problem for the west, joe biden, to abide and said when the senate defeated the aid package for ukraine, that it could certainly become a big problem for the us as well. saying that it could be that we say american soldiers fighting russian soldiers. if the us this is to provide support the free

do you think that will change any mines? is what i didn't the of if, if i go by and said that's the u. s. continues to deny additional support to ukraine. it. okay. it well could be that noted and we'll get what he wants and that the us could warrant and fighting russia. i think that is actually what we should still understand. yes, that is the do not support. now ukraine, it is also a problem for our security for the american security and finds the way. it's also important for the republicans, because if you want really to contact china, you also need to come to contain china instrument in europe. that's important at the end of the gaza, very important. it's also about geo politics. please do not forget the fuel and has the concrete interest in his basis as ends in the east. that's also very important . i'm going to not go there because we have very little time left on the clock and i would very but if you'd like to, to come back to the point about morale that you made earlier. irina,

how do people in russia and especially mothers in russia see the prospect of this conflict? continuing, we seen mothers demonstrating in ukraine and isolated demonstrations in russia itself. how high is the dissatisfaction there? so um, as i can size a do such as function in russia is not a lot of huge because for him, for the last, for the last month is for him, for most successful to recruit most of the people from on in, on trucks stores. so on, my bill is ation stopped for a while and people what happened is that on sofa, a sofa shoes, please find his truck. those people are fighting for money, so they have family else such as 5 business money and as that's live and on the time of the process against the war. and more, it's,

those protests didn't ukraine itself. could they undermine the war effort. one sentence once that, of course, if the war continues in this attrition mode, this problem will get to the worst. thank you very much to all of you for being with us today. thank you. out there for turning in the

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a problem that was in the us middle class income has fairly risen in the last 20 to 30 years perhaps. thanks. so it gets the same time get keeps right. 300 trillion that the trap. the december 9 dw, a vacation as an applicant, do they have good weather? i, when i told me that because they don't have violence, do this, can we go sailing? tulsa tissue today because when they go to that we set up, you know, medical people are stuck with car bama tenants all the way. so not because the the

business day, nobody news line from button and footage from gaza appears to show is right. the soldiers be tightening dozens of men and forcing them to strip. israel says it's carrying on to interrogations, to establish whether been a tree ancient man, detained to go in and gaza, connecting to the militant group. also in the program, germany says foreign minister arrives in dubai for the us climate conference and elaina babel. here's one of those pushing for global commitment to face out fossil fuels. cranium, troops face increased pressure from russian attacks this winter takes.