the, the votes, people have to say the, that's why we listen to this story. the ritual. every weekend on d. w, the nearly 22 months after russia invaded ukraine's much heralded counter offensive has failed to deliver the breakthrough. the key of expected claiming that russian forces are improving their positions. vladimir putin meanwhile, as dispatching more soldiers, weapons, and munitions to the battlefield. ukrainian forces and citizens are bracing for another tough winter with us support hanging in the balance presidents lensky warrants ukraine could lose without us house. meanwhile, russia has launched

a diplomatic offensive in the global south, at a hybrid attack on the west. our question today, russia's war on ukraine will put in guess what? she wants the and it is a pleasure to welcome our guests here on to the point with the julia is and associates fellow at the german council on foreign relations. the d g a, b. he's an expert on eastern europe and a mediation advisor on ukraine at the center for international peace operations. great to have you with us. and more and scotsman reports from eastern europe and currently ukraine for the german news magazine status. and finally, we are very pleased to welcome from london, intervene, oregon. she is a russian invest because the journalist co founder and deputy editor of ogden tour

a dot to argue watchdog of the russian secret services activities. great. have you with us every now and more. it's we're hearing the world word stalemate mentioned more and more these days. do you think that term is justified? is this conflict edging towards something that you could call a frozen conflict or? well a frozen conflict uh would be uh, front line way. don't have the shooting anymore, but that's definitely not the case at the moment. what we see, basically since last november. so it's 2022 is the attrition of war. basically don't have a big movement of the frontline anymore. neither of the sides can conquer any big cities or territories, but it's an attrition of war from trenches to trenches. the. the use of drones is

very important at the moment. it's becoming more and more important. makes the better blog or even more. and yet it's an patrician war with uh, thousands of victims every month. and um, actually at this moment no end in sight. i'm can i just ask you, because i know you have been reporting from ukraine. the for you to has also recently been there, but the counter offensive. there were high expectations of it hasn't delivered any gains at all ukraine's colors. and unfortunately, it is concerning the front line. they haven't been a lot of games. the ukraine has gained some square kilometers, some square miles, the butts. uh the, the big aim to push through to the as of the see i haven't been reached. and of course, also because of these big expectations. i mean, the landscape at the beginning of the year talked about in year victory. and this

is why, but inside ukraine, the frustration is also very big. and it's irina if, if i can go to you latin, been put in has been looking and sounding pretty confident lately. should he be? how is how well assured is support at home on it's, it's not, uh, it's not an easy question because, you know, uh m, russia is, uh, uh, sort of thought individually um, on the, uh, sort of thought energy and people are not a simple enough free to express themselves, especially in nowadays, in the rush of people are frightened at all the time m like comp express themselves really bought. the last polls shows us is that uh, the main question that some people, russian people want to ask fulton is when is a water bill? and so it's bills is that he's support

a little bit. so there's not a lot of people who are approval and put a support in terms of uh, in terms of continuing the war is not so strong as it used to be. and it rushes, pouring a tremendous amount of resources into this war effort. how long can it sustain that as long as it, as it needs to to be honest off. oh, a lot. the final is many of them, including me, fail to predict how strong is inputs and resume is and how good, how go to the his economy is doing so far. the economy is still doing quite well and, and there are a lot of resources still a lot of resources that put him can come spend on the war. he was successful to some of the fi, older sources into, into it military, industrial complex and russian military industrial complex is much strong guys and

it used to be 2 years ago. so let's see how i know how it will go. but i think that she still has at least 6 or 8 months does out that and problem we've had this lead of nato's secretary general young stoughton bag recently said that the west should be prepared for bad news from ukraine. i'm quoting here, and the seem to discount the current stand off saying that wars go up and down. they have good and bad phases. yes, it's of course true. and the problem is how long the wall to wall goes bad for, for ukraine. and that is, that is a problem, but it's also a problem for russia. we should be clear because not every thing is very nice in russia and in the long term. also putting knows that as a collective best is if he's really, really to a support ukraine for a long time. has a superiority in technology and also in financing that's key. and that is actually

the case because why russia is now launching that hybrid media campaign. also is a global sauls to get the impression we are mighty, we can do everything and to, to bring uncertainty and intimidation into the rest of society. so let me ask you about that and we will come back to that global south outreach that he's been of the global tell us, i don't like, i know the us, but every time we this the but let me 1st ask you in regard to what stilton power has said he basically went on to say in the same in the same as a statement that we should be prepared to support ukraine in both good and bad times. but are we the u. s. the senate has just torpedoed a $1000000000.00 aid package for ukraine. and i, you know, there's a doubt about the degree to which the u. s. the biggest supporter will be willing to maintain that support. yes, of course. and of course, what i said is only true,

it's the best is really ready to support your credit for a long time. and it's not only because of liberating crime, yes. and so what it is to defend to ukraine also simply the problem is i think that we still do not know what is the outcome in the fights into us. because we still have many republicans, well, who are very willing to counter act against russia against pollutants, russia. so i think that is also part of a bond beginning, but it is of cause it makes the ukrainians on. so that is a problem. and the 2nd problem is, what i see in europe. yes, we scaled up our support. yes, we already achieved very much. for example, germany now is the 2nd deliver of, of weapons lots. very interesting. however, we are not on the way that we really will have an important risible share which can compete with us in order to convince these republicans that it is the voice

continuing to support the war in your let's pick up on that important in a moment. but i would like to take a closer look 1st at the situation on the battlefield in ukraine. the us defense secretary recently said that russia has been badly weakened by the war, but at least for now that weakness is not readily apparent at the front lines. an increasing amounts of lessons and more and more sold just russian president troops and wants to increase the number of troops in the russian armed forces by 170000 people to a total of 1300000 at the beginning of the 2nd twins of the war, russia remain strong. we are now fighting, not just for russia's freedom. what for the freedom of the whole world around there is a country that is now with the full front of the building. of pharaoh well do that without the silver and strong russia is no longer like

a stable weld odom as possible which needs to be in the middle of the view as much to accomplish this person. also, except pine losses. his soldiers, which stood the ukrainian counter offensive, they even went on the counter attack like and of the account, the russian army never seems to run out so that munitions, that's successful battle plans also include the increased use of drones and electronic wolf fat. on top of that cyber attacks using refugees as a means of existing pressure and propaganda patients, hybrid whole strategy is working despite international condemnation and sanctions. is russia getting stronger? and let me put that question to more it's and perhaps also ask you to talk about how we are seeing that in conjunction with the battle for of the data rate. it's both sides have been sustaining very, very heavy losses. they are,

the ukranian government says its soldiers are standing their ground. is that your assessment? they are standing the ground, but especially ukraine has more and more problems to get more soldiers to recruit more soldiers inside the country because the people see what kind of war it is at the moment. and you don't want to gets one way. tickets into the trenches of possible, of course, if you're a man and you creating today. so what i would say is what we need after the 21 months of a war is a realistic approach, a realistic approach that's dozens under estimate the enemy, russia. but that also doesn't over estimates what you crane can reach and what we can do for you. crane. and i have the feeling, but especially the last year 2023 at sold. especially these problems have problems

that we also over estimate. it's ukraine. we were thinking that it could, the, when the war and this year, but ukraine itself, they also over estimated what they could do and we under estimate the dresser. so this is what i mean. most of the key findings that i would get from this. yeah, definitely realistic approach, would you agree? yes, but the realistic approach means also to, to differentiate why. oh, russia maybe has a momentum. i do not think that's a in quality really. it became stronger at the moment. but that can happen if he would not change strategically or you create a support for ukraine. you'll see, for example, the enough, the if goes that the is of course, much more last as long as the russian sites. so it is clear we have and of course the losses and i have to the degree of us missed the government to be the ukrainian . so we just came exhausted. that is a big problem of cost, but they are still not ready to give up. that is also very clear also in society. but what we should see is, yes, russia now has more than one nation, but excuse me,

is a rent out of one dish and they had big problems a several time ago. actually, it was optimal, the munitions, they still have big problems has mechanized briggs look who is going to have to you because it's only in front of people. go on foot to the front lines, not supported by a bigger make a nice because. so what i only want to say is we need to really on both sides. and we have to formulate such aims, which are realistic also when it comes to offensive. and also when it comes to defense in order to make really successes, which, which bring ukraine in a better position and bring do not mix into a fable fuel crate. so let me go over to irina, and ask you about the real situation for russian forces. the us national security council recently said that russia's heavy losses at of difficult or depressing the russian troops morale. and they claimed that russian commanders were

threatening to execute entire units if they retreated from ukrainian artillery fire . can you tell us whether that is true, that claim, and what the mood is amongst the russian forces hall? i don't know whether it's true or not, but you know, is that all in, in the russian past is this sort of to you and in as a used this mess that's and i'm in this mess ups i've all successful. and if i mean, it least is at the thought it was paid. but no, i don't. seems that uh that current pool is a little more seconds. so harsh mess that's could be such that successful to some extent, but you can use it every day. but to me so far, um put his position as

a reference position on the, on the front line seems kind of strong. i'm, i'm very sorry to, to, to say is this. but it seems they found a lot of sources including people or sources as a difference between between as of last and the roster is that the last is usually can about the soul just about the people about the human resources. but russia does not, as a criminal, don't pay a lot of attention to how many people, it's sacrifice and it's a buckle failed. and it seems, besides that russian public does who cast a lot to. so that's the difference. and we'll come back to the way the rest of the public sees it. but move for you. let me ask you this. this conflict has become a war of attrition. as more it said in his 1st uh, answer earlier. does that automatically give russia with its size and its resources, the advantage? and how long can rush to sustain the kind of of spending,

but it's doing it. if you count national security and police, russia actually is heading towards spending 10 percent of its g d p. if that sustainable. i think it is sustainable in the, in a certain time for certain periods but, but not, not automatically for a long time. and that is actually why russia now is one things east companions, because they know if the west will decide for more support technology and financing of ukraine. they knows that in the long run, russia is because then to best, not, of course, because then ukraine, you'll have to to be clear. yeah. yes. of course. but restaurant when it comes to pass, note when it comes to resources is more, might even ukraine, but not if you repeat and us will be making ukraine for a long time since the 1st thing and let me make a little remark on said war of attrition. that is not completely true, we should never the less take also a deeper look on the from science and we see of course that ukrainians manage to go

through. so sort of we can line on certain points. a problem is ukraine has lots of support of got craft, and russia has a full superiority in the air over the occupied territories. and so it is a problem. but that problem can result in the next time that's a much more better for ukraine. the 2nd point is, please do not forget that ukraine achieved to reopen the humanitarian corey door for the crane export and for the next part of goods of ukraine, which is very important because they could push back very much. so russian blakeslee fleet, and they could really substantially home as the russian facilities on the c sports . one question, and then i want to shift our focus to the diplomatic side. but russia is not only ramping up production of military hardware and ammunition. it is also investing massively in drones and recently launch the biggest strong strikes since the

invasion began very briefly if you would. what effect is that having on operations on the ground? well, i mean, of course we see more drones attacking ukrainian cities, but the, i would say that's a ukrainian air defense. it's coping quite well with that. but the more important is the drone of warfare over the trench of it's isn't it terms, least the front line to kill zone where basically soldiers can't get out of the trenches without the getting killed. and there's another important factor if you need a pot for drones, you don't have to get a pump. your don't hesitate, but on the front to protect your things, which would go forward. yeah, yeah, definitely. thank you, irina. so let's move on to talk about the role of diplomacy and all of this. the quote from protein that we heard in our report just now was part of a speech in which he depicted russia as a champion, pushing back against the hedge,

a monic west. how many countries of the global south are actually buying into this message? and what does that mean for russia's war effort? it does things that's a lot of conscious around a mile away is saying want because the author to come contracts too many for as in the as a new all they need money is a need in the last months and russia are ready to go for life as a support too many to some african countries and because a lot of african refugees they need uh, city security um do you know walk in the opposite rock to do that for us and minnesota. lot russian pride with miller that a company provide some offer because there seems to be a security based protection. so that's why it tells hotel spends a criminal narrative is more come in that often countries. but i mean, is it done by these is i just need his support on his mind. you are saying that's

probably true for the last time i made a good contrast. so i'm huge onto medicaid is reach us right now, is this concept for uh, for some very genuine reasons. also is better helpful here more it's a put in is just made a rare and very quick trip to the united arab emirates and saudi arabia and to declare the relations with the em or etc. and i all time high as he said, does not have anything to do with the fact that numerous russian companies have now made you a either temporary base and are using a centrally to evade western sanctions. or, well, i think we're getting to a point where we have to admit that if you want a more realistic approach, that's the, the, the, the power of the west is very limited. we thought at the beginning of this conflict that our sanctions codes leads to the fall of russia somehow. but we have to admit

to 21 months after the beginning of the war. but actually, there are lots of countries in the world who maybe they are not russia friendly, but they tell the west, this is not our conflict. we wants to stay out of this. we won't, don't want to get any negative impact from this the, on our economy. we will cooperate. but everyone and this is a very different situation, maybe from 20 or 25 years ago. just the time. however, i do not fully agree visits, please, takes effects look at the summit with us. so there's a sole controlled assault and must cause the african summit. many state these are still not to come as they did into for me. yes. so piece that it was quite disappointing. and what you'll also see is that when we now speak, this was for zill and cells in america about some mecca. so an agreement that this

actually, what's the west still has the potential to do also with india, to give them something concrete substantial. and to say ok if he, if he makes that agreement, we can, for example, also speak by some unique not to take. so essentially feed, but please keep to summer with so we need much more diplomatic investment because what putting the class about the globe itself is it is only a part is a realistic result. and the other thing is part about more it's when we look at support or lack there of from the west. what difference do you think that the were in gaza is making? is it diverting western attention isn't attention and potentially also resources at this very critical moment. when you create most need some. so of course, the, the attention is a very important resource and what we saw for us since the beginning of the war is that to the attention is going away from ukraine also because of the fact that from

you came, you don't have for so many good news as i'm home and and yeah, of course the tension is distracted from ukraine. but also i would say that the cause of war is a moral problem from the west. or because you have a situation where israel is bomb being at the gaza strip. there are heavy civilian casualties, and of course, in many countries of the world whom we told over the last 2 years that russia is bad and the morally bad, they ask now, okay, what is the israel doing at the moment? so morally, this war is also a big problem for the west, joe biden, to abide and said when the senate defeated the aid package for ukraine, that it could certainly become a big problem for the us as well. saying that it could be that we see american

soldiers fighting russian soldiers. if the u. s. c says to provide support the free do you think that will change any mines? is what i didn't the of if, if a rock job i, instead of the u. s. continues to deny additional support to ukraine. it okay. it well could be that protein will get what he wants and that the us could warrant and fighting russia. i think that is actually what we should still understand. yes, that is the do not support. now ukraine, it is also a problem for our security for the american security and finds the way. it's also important for the republicans, because if you want really to contact china, you'll also need to come to contain china instruments and euro. that's important at the end of the gaza, very important. it's also about geo politics. please do not forget the fuel and has the concrete interest in his basis. this ends in the east, that's also very important. i'm going to not go there because we have very little

time left on the clock. and i would very, very, if you'd like to, to come back to the point about morale that you made earlier. irina, how do people in russia and especially mothers in russia see the prospect of this conflict? continuing, we seen mothers demonstrating in ukraine and isolated demonstrations in russia itself. how high is the dissatisfaction there? oh, as i can size a do such as function in russia is not a lot of huge because for him, for the last, for the last small says for him, for most successful to recruit most people from on in on trucks, doors and so on. my bill is ation stopped for a while and people what happened is that on sofa, a sofa shoes is fine, is a truck. those people are fighting for money. so that family,

how satisfied is this money? and as that's live and all the time of the process against the war and more, it's those protests in ukraine itself. could they undermine the war effort? one sentence once that, of course, if the war continues in this attrition mode, this problem will get the worst. thank you very much to all of you for being with us today. thank you. out there for turning in the

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