st and my size and just sort of to carry during mother in law styles and committed to a name where he left his trees. meeting people. viewing the 3 d w, the, the slow crew come fixing ukraine will soon the head ends with 3rd you with the pressure on care to advance on the battlefield and re energize support in the west . my guess from ballon is alexander w. director of the con, the russia, your agent center. the bad news is that unfortunately, the support for your trade in the west or public is going down for now. russians. economy has stabilized and mr. pretend incisive on war crimes charges is none. the

less finding plenty of friends to talk to and visit so well as new found confidence terms him into a big a will with ukraine. i've even a fights with nathan alex, i was a girl boy of welcome to come fix own. thank you so much for having me. a week ago, nato secretary general young stalking, but wouldn't be alive to expect bad news from the war and ukraine. he didn't say what you bring. take you a long hard look at this war. is you credit on the way to losing? i don't think that you're afraid is all on the way to losing now, but next year we'll definitely be crucial. and if you pray is not of the book position next year that that by shape the trajectory up the call like to work a lot of work. i agree. so what we're seeing at the moment, this is the ad and slow that you often see with major complex. that's true. and i think that the comparison bases for this coffee could be blown. one work, the lens,

the iraq iran war. we're now seeing that the green has lost the initiative. it's pushing on some direction without major gains. it's summer counter offensive has not yielded in major call, but victories. and then the russians are now on advance with terrible losses on their side and both what you are let equipment, but the russians are advancing. and what's more russians, how a lot of money pumped into the military, industrial complex and into recruiting use soldiers. so now the material advantage is gradually on the russian side, and without massive support for ukraine. we might be seen this accomplish on a trajectory for russia's victory e by the food and doesn't that cheapest max and ballistic objectives. and let's talk about the chances of uh, massive support for your crime. because last month, nato foreign ministers tried to put the best face on the situation. they promised

unwavering support as they portraits as the ukrainians bravely defend the country. um, the figures tell a different story about that not quite adding up to on wavering support. i mean, you brand to provide us with 50000000000 euros and budget support. that's stuck in committee. a $60000000000.00 fund promised by the white house is stuck in congress . this is bad news, isn't that the bad news is bad unfortunately. uh theres support for your trade in the west or how public is going down. and then it also became a stores for olympics making for domestic purposes in the us and also for intra european union and conflict between some gear. we're going to leadership and the rest of the union inside the you. we're talking at the moment when

president zelinski is scheduled to arrive in washington dc. he's most likely to speak to the leather ship, all the senate, and the congress gets about to see prison bite. and so i think that the, the amount of support over the us and the timing, whether the, the, the radians get the money they need to defend themselves for next year is up in the, or the fact that it's not kind of a guaranteed a very well scheduled train of support is a bad news, but i think that it's too early to be desperate. but i think that the very warning side is that it's most likely will be the last massive package for the next year. and the question is, how wisely the ukrainians are to spend it later this week or you leaders meet in brussels with the possibility of making a historic decision to open. accession talks with ukraine hungry has threatened to block the move you mentioned hungry a moment ago. either way,

decisions that at this meeting, put aside the outcome of this war, couldn't buy supplies to kind of already being drastically affected. but i think that it's not deciding the outcomes of this more, but i think that if we don't have a positive decision, massive 8 uh what support for you. free then the trajectory all the called so you can go into the negative direction for to you. and despite the bravery of the crate in defendants and the resilience all, the ukraine of society without massive influx or western material support the situation of a pretty dar mikaela instituted for the world economy set down the december. the 7th newly committed a to ukraine, reached a new low between august and october this year, but almost 90 percent dropped compared to the same period last year. the crumbling

must be jumping for joy is the trouble it is. and we've seen president quote in gloating around out, i think he's meeting with russian was senior military staff. she was awarding keywords, a raw shop, awards a couple of days ago. and he said that the freight does nat calling me, does it have its own defense base? and this is why the trajectory all the columns they for is in rushes. fever, i see might be wrong, long term, but these unfortunately are right right now. and it's everything in the hands of western. how is it a leadership to problem is separate and brought the white house national security advisor jake sullivan said last week, but any short, full in funding would quickly compromise ukraine's defense capabilities in your view. how long does you credit and have to get the weapons? it's calling for bits for its troops. not only failed to advance, but actually begin to retreat. oh, there is

a discussion inside you prayed in senior military leadership at the political leadership as well as among friends off you prayed in the west. what's the best strategy? the ukraine should follow right now, because russia is probably dog in, but you, real advantage is on the russian side, whether it makes sense for the crate to try to break through the russian lines given how it was off to the troops off for the better approach. for now, is not the chase calendar offense slips next year, but dig in $45.00 defenses. be able to retrieve the troops, do another round up invalidation train war troops and then come war prepared. probably in 2025. i think that's a probably dated issue right now, and depending on the decisions that the visitor, our leadership and political leadership will date, we'll see how they will go about whatever happened to all those extravagant

promises that the ukraine received over the last 2 and 3 months which with folsom and in many ways unique look at the way the last, almost overnight into an organization that supplies military hardware look at the change of heart in germany, be much publicized site and then the turning point in history. the jobs to show spoke up, was that in your view or was a time line attached to the west largest. moscow was believed, always believed that hasn't it? the most good deeds ben's on the fact that wisdom support or ukraine will evaporate at some point, that moscow has much more at stake. given disappointment is up session over this war and given how seemingly united the society is behind this war, i think that based on the work done by my colleagues aren't get dolman henrique,

the less me now. partners sociologist, dennis ball comp, we see down around 20 percent, a die hard supporters for these, for the russian side and about 50 percent are very ass up and we'll go into whatever direction the risk. so on the russian side, you have, it cannot be growth, you have increase military production, and you have boxes because this more is the organizing prison all of the process for all of us in domestic voltage, breton, the russian. who is that, the west at some point bill pack and lead. and again, it's all totally up to the western leadership had to societies do and how you train to stand in this battle because i think that we have some communication gaps because the west, the meters help explain to their societies white. so crucial to you as support you, craig, and i think that's more questions iraq so, so there is a need, there was a need for a new round of explanation why this conflict is so ex, essential to westside in the crown. so president job michelle was asked on this

program about europe's commitment to ukraine. you said the you would stand by ukraine for as long as it takes to secure victory. do you think such promises were made in good faith? they are, but at the same time we don't have a very clear definition. what victory is, that's also ease achieve. oh, we know what the last thing is, don't we? we've gotten to know what a loss is. when dealt with the know what the last was and the last is when you, crean doesn't be cheap annual fits objectives, and the cost of this war is borne by both russia and ukraine, but cost on the creative side will be much bigger. i think that right now are the discussions that you're happy is that how realistic are the definitions or victory put out by presidents, the lensky, which is 1991 of waters being voting crime, the reparations. so russia should be, but for the damage and accountability for the work driven those,

including both senior russian leadership and present a wedding or how to level this that if we are dealing with the nuclear power is quite simple. and i think that's year uh, the western leadership has in a smart way because there is no other way to tell you pregnant what the definition of victory should be. have pushed this to g of leadership itself to say that, oh, you create new leadership should define what the beach recall seduce and will be there with them till till they at. now i think it's the recording time for ukrainian leadership itself to define how realistic those goals are and what is the strategy to achieve something which will be the primary leadership sticks to the position that it's not going to give up any land on the country at once the land back um that that looks increasing the achievable doesn't that i don't think

that it's feasible to imagine that any you create new leadership will legally abandon any charge or occupied rush. be to grade work. the other 4 regents that happen are actually occupied the next by russia late next year. but they could be all the ways to brayden this issue and to say that the orbital numbers are sally b o or unfortunately em. and if you grade achieves it's $5.00 to $91.00 bores. what prevents russia from shooting over the 1991 borders? it's not that ukrainians will regain territorial integrity of their countries as really nice by the international community. and then vladimir button, they'll say both, sorry, i lost you was unpacking, then go all or bind myself a plane to get through the hate. so why don't the weight it draw, i'm sorry, is your dry? he called go home. uh, add to add the county boots, you know he can,

he can not. uh, and we can imagine a scenario where she, who is this the ward and stays in power of likes, likes that uncle said after seas tobacco. think wait, but it's unlikely. no. and how much, what do you put in bang on his legacy over annexation of premier in other parts of your great, mister god, boy, if the crumbling appears to have stabilized after you have gained the pre gordon's in for this new today, the rather predictable plane crash that he suffered, but will have been bothering the pretend, showed unexpected weakness the pressure might someone i've already decided that, well they need to do is give them another push. and maybe they could clear the path to someone else taking over in the crime to do think so. it's like that are crystallizing at the moment. i'm rushing leaders. know i've seen that these hopes are true to you. i understand why people want to see somebody taking care of the world's loading. they're putting problem for that is unfortunately not happening to

the country. pre gardens, virginia has only 45 minutes to put in scrape, but she had eliminate that the most dangerous rival. that's the also south breed and procrastinator for the problem to get bigger and bigger. but now this problem is fixed. everybody in the elite got the message and everybody's not rounded round was by miss. look around this book and billing late, but they understand what price they will pay if they ultimately step up against this. it puts you yourself wrote in july how the mute to the head exposed what you quote, the fragility of pollutants power system. people won't have forgotten about facility will that what amounts to a dave jeff with anita and put in was by all accounts in some danger is always an opportunity for opponents, isn't it? that's just politics is live. it's for you. but he often regime for sure, but time and again we see that mixed up putting is learning some lessons and that

the system is adopted. remember a how miserable russia look back and feel at the very beginning this call to where he gradient really being in far less up and teaches position just pushed back and smash a lot of russians, who at what you real security already and yet right now we see that russians are learning the lessons and able to charge the tie. something similar just happened to the political system. yes. then you didn't, you have showed how fragile this, the step is. but this supporting can fix some of this, which you one last some of the fall from seeking a so gold off from, from his war. and you, great. bruton is preparing for an even bigger war. do you still feel that way? and if so, how big might this will be good. that's exactly what we're seeing now. mr. put in will invest 6 percent of g d, p g defense and to reward needs the frame 40 percent of russian budget. next year.

we'll go to defense and security. that's more than at any given moment since collapse. so i'll just saw that you did. he is increasing the troops numbers and he's military industries working at 3 ships using materials to defeat your crate. so i think that for now, the war is contained in ukraine in t is the story is, i don't believe that he will be able to achieve his maximum list of goal to go to front the government in g l. but if he's not the chart, i would say that the risk for further and it challenges, i've re challenges the baltic states or to some of what the supply countries is, unfortunately not entirely suit. so when joe biden says, if put in, takes ukraine, he won't stop there. and then we'll have something that we don't seek or not. we don't have to the american troops fighting russian troops. do you believe? but that is a possibility. even

a distant one is anybody would say to me 2 years ago, i would say, oh yes you have to like russia is very serious about natal article 5 commitment. it's definitely understanding that our symmetry between itself and nato. no nato is not at risk at all. right now, i'm not so sure if he needs to be torres in ukraine. if he sees that ukraine is a broken country and he can occupied the lab with impunity. and there is a leader like donald trump, will challenges the utility of nature to american interests. that attention to kind of challenge article 5 will be there. i still think that the risk is low for direct competition between russia in the us. but the risk is unfortunately going up, right? but if the what to discover the optical 5 isn't worth the paper. it's written on nato's finish, doesn't that? that's absolutely true. and that might be decent on the russian side. so many

people were wrong about putting supply this to invade ukraine because objectively speaking, if you are a rational pragmatist, the list of downsides for russia is just so long. it is killed, thousands, office b building building. it's both professional military, it's sanctioned, it's isolating from the world is becoming junior partner of china. but we support and it's not the church. and jesus grip on the 14, russia is frank's it. so what it is course is proven to be a winning course, at least for himself, and you get, impose this music on the russian leads that the patient shall edge article by in nato and chase the americans out of europe will be growing. the support is not getting younger, he's not getting any rational. so the risks are not 0. unfortunately, this might be the issue that he can stop scratching, you mean in other words?

yeah, and this is exactly why getting serious about defense and getting as serious about side with when the and all the promises that were made 2 years ago when rushing made it to great things are really very necessary to fulfill not only to support ukraine, but for your own security and tell you meant, is there a way to go for it and fortune? let's look if we may add, pretends friendship with china, and you wrote last spring. but thanks to the war and you create russia and china, i'm out closer allies. but at any time and the 2 countries more than the history, do you believe that's put in the new best friend? she jim thing would go along with the idea of a big a wall. i think that mr. a season p in a cool new care less where the conflict between where the border worth the contact line between russia and ukraine is, as long as this war doesn't go nuclear and she is not blame to support that. she

will respect american red lines which have been communicated to, you know, genetic, military direct support, no military material and bind walrus. she follows that. why, if russia is weakened, isolated and more aligned and supported to try not, what's the bad news for you? she only likes this situation. what about voters of a foreign friends suddenly he's popping up in b. u a and saudi arabia where he was greeted as a very dear guest of the kingdom in moscow he's been putting out the red carpet for far need is like the president of iran so much for the international i selection that was expected to follow his indictment tool while ago crimes charges. is he just flaunting his impunity? or is he busy putting together a new id west of access? 3 quick points. i think that's the illusion about the, the global unity in isolating russia. it's just the illusion and it's

a fantasy. it's very easy to cast up to see me or below it, or a boat pretty seismic brush up the un general assembly. but so many countries in the global south, not over the china, but also the largest democracy in the world. india are having a beneficial commercial relationship with and they're not abandoning vladimir putting same goes for countries in the gulf, including u, a in saudi arabia, to receiving, quote. and with this, the symbols of prestige and welcome is also a way to show to the west. uh that, uh, this region as friends, and this is tied to the west and how do they offer gossett christ and war between israel and moss. and finally, yes, mr. poodle is trying to book this call, listen to the other. what's the is called the global majority. i don't think that anybody in the global south is really the leading to support and bunch of stuff

that's just working for it gets to grade is the rebellion against us had gemini. but so many countries are following the narrow, pragmatic interest and blaming device one double center. the say, what about iraq? what about of gone to stop? and frankly, there was not that much introspection that we convinced this countries that russians were a gastric freight is entirely different level of violation of the national boards to what expense. i mean, you talked a bit about the russian economy, to what extent have improvements in that economy helped to keep the russian people, if not on the side, then at least not protesting to the people who protested them. hundreds of thousands of them have gone, haven't they? they've left the country, but somehow they seem to have re aligned or color less the round, the crumbling happen thing is that the economy we have, we have the estimate of the wrong lease out for 1000000 people leaving the russia

for good me included, or a country or more than 140000000. that's not too much. and these are people who are employable in global markets. there are so many people who want to leave russia, but couldn't because of these of restrictions and many other policies. for the remaining people, it's a mix all violence because protesting has a very top priced. you see alex in nevada, they you see so many thousands of brave russians who have dear to protest this more and have been beaten and it proves on that. so what the russian society is optimized and we support these building. he is regime on this level. i took this ation f lack of unity. but then another element to this is really the economic prosperity because of the war has made a lot of low middle income families really receiving

a lot of money because the government is paying people to go to the frogs lines. it's the gave it and a half the cash routes for tablets, but when did it deal? so it is a rational strategy for somebody to go to fight in ukraine because the spouse will be provided. do you measure briefly the garza war? um, it obviously diverts us weapons and ammunition from ukraine to israel, and it also leaves america increasingly isolated diplomatically so it's a play a benefit to prove to this that there's no downside for him in this war. it's a clear benefit to mr. poodle that he hasn't created, there is no credible evidence that he was in any way involved in commerce attack. but she's definitely taken a one sided and reset the one sided for all mass stats. he's not the exit coaching, the even balance russian foreign policy, not that much super people with the which sits

a horrible job or sound tax. and yes, the us forces are diverted to israel, attention of us senior policy makers, including president biden himself. and he's national security team is that brought it to the needle ease. and then the double standards of the vast are something that mr. food and has preach to the global south, and he has a fertile round it. so very briefly, it doesn't be moscow is ending the year on something of a high looking better than it did a year ago. but if you look back, what do 23 has been a really surprisingly good year for me to put in. and it's really in the hands of the western policy maker to make sure the 2024 is not as good for alexander gabriella. it's been good to have your own complex. i'm thank you very much for your time. thank you so much for having we of the

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the w. and the date of the news line from don and vladimir putin says russia will persist with its will. in ukraine. russian president tells his ends of year press conference in moscow, taking questions from john list i'm from citizens based as a you leaders me to discuss ukraine's future congress pro russia prime minister threatens to the royal proceedings, saying there's no reason to discuss ukraine's hoped for membership now the

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