simple as the impossible, super easy it is stones tell the story of a powerful resolution. what exactly happened as a 10000 years ago? the secret shone age stops december 22nd on the w, and the, the slow crew come fixing ukraine will soon head into its 3rd year with the pressure on care to advance on the battlefield and re energized support in the west . my guess from belin is alexander w, director of the con, the russia you raises center. the bad news is that, unfortunately, there's support for you read in the west or how public is going down for now. russians. economy has stabilized and mr. pretend incisive on war crimes. charges is none, the less finding plenty of friends to talk to and visit so well is new found confidence

tim into a big a will with ukraine. i've even a fight with nato. how does the boy of welcome to come pick zone? thank you so much for having me. a week ago, nato secretary general young stalking bug wouldn't be aligns to expect bad news from the war and ukraine. he didn't say what you've been taking a long hard look at this war. is you credit on the way to losing? i don't think that you create is all on the way to losing now, but next year we'll definitely be crucial. and if you pray is not of the book position next year that that by shape the trajectory up the call like towards loss of war by i agree. so what we're seeing at the moment this is a add um slow that you often see with major complex that's true. and i think that the comparison bases for this coffee could be blown. one work, the lens, the iraq iran war. we're now seeing that the green has lost the initiative. it's

pushing on some direction without major gains. it's summer counter offensive has not yielded in nature called but victories. and then the russians are now on advance with terrible losses on their side and both material in equipment. but the russians are advancing. and what's more russians have a lot of money pumped into their military industrial complex and into recruiting use soldiers. so now the material advantage is gradually on the russian side, and without massive support for ukraine. we might be seen this conflict on a trajectory for russia's victory e by the student. doesn't that cheapest max and ballistic objectives? and let's talk about the chances of uh, massive support for ukraine, because last month, nato foreign ministers tried to put the best face on the situation. they promised unwavering support as they portraits as the ukrainians bravely defend the country.

um, the figures tell a different story about that not quite adding up to on wavering support. i mean, you brand to provide us with 50000000000 euros and budget support. that's stuck in committee. a $60000000000.00 fund promised by the white house is stuck in congress . this is bad news, isn't that the bad news is that unfortunately uh theres support for your trade in the west ser applique is going down and then it also became a stores for olympics making for domestic purposes in the us. and also for inc, try you repeating union and conflict between some gary and leadership and the rest of the union inside the you. we're talking at the moment when president zelinski is scheduled to arrive in washington dc. he's most likely to speak to the leather ship,

all the senate, and the congress gets the about to see prison bite. and so i think that the, the amount of support over the us and the timing, whether the really radians get the money they need to defend themselves for next year is up in the, or the fact that it's not kind of a guarantee that very well scheduled train of support is a bad news, but i think that it's too early to be desperate. but i think that the dreary warning side is that it's most likely will be the last massive package for the next year. and the question is how wisely the ukrainians are to spend it. later this week usually does meet in brussels with the possibility of making a historic decision to open accession adults with ukraine hungry has threatened to block the move you mentioned hungry a moment ago. either way, decisions that at this meeting put decide the outcome of this war couldn't buy

supplies to kind of already being drastically effective. but i think that it's not deciding the outcomes of this more. but i think that if we don't have a positive decision mask, that 8. uh, uh, what support for you free. then the trajectory all the, the call to do is go into the negative direction for to you. and despite the bravery of ukrainian defendants and the resilience all the ukraine, as a society without massive influx or western material support the situation, the pretty dar mikaela institute for the world economy set down in december. the 7th, newly commit today to ukraine reached a new low between august to the doctor. but this year, but almost 90 percent dropped compared to the same period last year. the crumbling must be jumping for joy is the trouble. it is. and we've seen president put in

gloating around out, i think he's meeting with russian with senior military staff. she was awarding keywords of thrush shop awards a couple of days ago. and he said that ray doesn't happen calling to me. it doesn't have his own defense base, and this is why the trajectory all the columns they for is in rushes. fever i see might be wrong, long term, but these unfortunately are right right now. and it's everything in the hands of western. oh, is it a leadership to problem is separate and brought the white house national security advisor jake sullivan said last week, that any shortfall in funding would quickly compromise ukraine's defense capabilities in your view? how long does you credit and have to get the weapons? it's cooling for bits for its troops, not only failed to advance, but actually begin to retreat. oh, there is a discussion inside the trade in senior military leadership and the political

leadership as well as among friends off you prayed in the west. what's the best strategy? the ukraine should follow right now, because russia is probably dog in, but you, real advantage is on the russian side, whether it makes sense for the crate to try to break through the russian lines given how exhaust fluid strips off for the better approach for now is not the chase counter offense slips next year. but dig it in 40 by defenses. be able to retrieve the troops, do another round up invalidation train war troops and then come war prepared. probably in 2025. i think that's a probably be the issue right now, and depending on the decisions that the visitor, our leadership and political leadership will date, we'll see how the will go about whatever happened to all those extravagant promises

. but the ukraine received over the last 20 months, which with folsom and in many ways unique look at the way the last, almost overnight into an organization that supplies military hardware look at the change of heart in germany, be much publicized site and then the timing boynton history, the jobs to show spoke up, was that in your view or was a time line attached to the west largest. moscow was believed, always believed that hasn't it? the most good deeds ben's on the fact that wisdom support or ukraine will evaporate at some point. that moscow has much more at stake, given, disappear is up session over this war and given how seemingly united the society is behind this war. i think that based on the work done by my colleagues aren't get dolman and read the less make it without partners. so see all the just dennis ball comp, we see that around 20 percent,

a die hard supporters for these for the russian side and about 50 percent are very ass up and we'll go into whatever direction the risk. so on the russian side, you have a can on the growth, you have increase military production. and you have talk is because this more is the organizing, 1st of all of the process for all of us in domestic voltage, breton, the russian, who is that, the west at some point bill pack and lead. and again, it's all totally up to the western leadership edge of societies too. and how you train to stand in this battle because i think that we have some communication gaps because the west, the meters have explained to their societies white. so crucial to you as support. you great, and i think that's more questions iraq so, so there is a need, there was a need for a new round of explanation why this conflict is so ex, essential to west setting the crown. so presidents job michelle was asked on this program about europe's commitment to ukraine. you said the you would stand by

ukraine for as long as it takes to secure victory. do you think such promises were made in good faith? the or but at the same time, we don't have a very clear definition. what victory is. that's also ease achieve. oh, we know what a lovely is, don't we, we've gotten to know what it losses when dealt with the know what the last was. and the last is when you crean doesn't to cheat annual fits objectives, and the cost of this war is borne by both russia and you create, but costs on the creative side will be much bigger. i think that right now are the discussions that you're having is that how realistic are the definitions for victory? put out by presidents, the lensky, which is 1991 of borders including crime, the reparations. so russia should pay for the damage and accountability for the work driven mills, including both senior russian leadership and present nobody here. how cheap level

is that if we are dealing with the nuclear power is quite simple and i think that's year uh, the western leadership has in a smart way because there is no other way to tell you pregnant what the definition of victory should be. have pushed this to g of leadership itself to say that, oh, you create new leadership should define what victory cost the jews and we'll be there with them till till they at. now i think it's the recording time for ukrainian leadership itself to define how realistic those goals are and what is the strategy to achieve something which will be the primary leadership sticks to the position that it's not going to give up any land um on the country once the land back um that does that looks increasing the achievable doesn't that i don't think that it's feasible to imagine that any you create new leadership will legally

abandon any charge or occupied rush. be to grade work. the other 4 regions that happen are actually occupied the next by russia late next year. but they could be all the ways to brayden this issue. and to say that's the orbital numbers are certainly b o or unfortunately em. and if you grade achieves it's $5.00 to $91.00 bores. what prevents russia from shooting over the 1991 borders? it's not that ukrainians will regain territorial integrity of their countries as a really nice by the international community. and then vladimir button, they'll say both, sorry, my last you was unpack and then go to or bind myself a plane ticket to the hate. so why don't the weight your, i'm sorry, is your address. he called go home. uh, add to add the county boots. you know, he can, he can not. uh, and we can imagine a scenario where she,

who is this the ward and stays in power of likes, likes uncle said after seas tobacco peak wait, but it's unlikely. no. and how much, what do you put in bands on he's legacy over annexation of premier and other parts of your great, mister god, boy, if the crumbling appears to have stabilized after you have gained the pre gordon's inside this new today. and the rather predictable plane crash that he suffered. but will have been bothering the pretend, showed unexpected weakness the pressure might someone i've already decided that, well they need to do is give them another push. and maybe they could clear the path to someone else taking over in the crime to do think so. it's like that crystallizing at the moment. i'm rushing leaders. no, i think that these hopes are true to you. i understand why people want to see somebody taking care of the world's loading they're putting problem, but that are unfortunately not happening to the country. pre gardens, virginia has only 45 minutes to put in strip and see how it would mean they get the

most dangerous rival. that's the also south breed and procrastinator for the problem to get bigger and bigger. but now this problem is fixed. everybody in the elite got the message and everybody's not rounded round was by miss. look around this button, billingsley, but they understand what price they will pay if they ultimately step up against this. you yourself wrote in july how the mute to the head exposed. what you quote, the fragility of pollutants power system. people won't have forgotten about fragility. will that what amounts to a deluge of for the lead and put in was by all accounts in some danger is always an opportunity for opponents, isn't it? that's just politics as live, it's for you, but the off the resume for sure, but time and again we see that the midst of putting is learning some less and that the system is adopted. remember a how miserable russia look back and feel at the very beginning,

it's called to where he gradient really being in far less up and teaches position just pushed back and smash a lot of russians who at material superior already. and yet, right now, we see that russians are learning the lessons and able to charge the tie. something similar just happened to the political system. yes than you do in the house showed how fragile the system is. but the supporting can fix some of the speech. you one last some of the fall from seeking a so gold off from, from his war. and you, great. bruton is preparing for an even bigger war. do you still feel that way? and if so, how big might this will be good. that's exactly what we're seeing. now, mr. put in will invest 6 percent of gdp. do defense and to where needs the brain, 40 percent refresh and budget next year we'll go to defense and security. that's

more worth that at any given moment since collapse solve this, i'll get you the he is increasing the troops numbers and the keys military industries working and 3 ships using materials to be feed your crate. so i think that for now, the war is contained in ukraine in t is the story is, i don't believe that he will be able to achieve his maximum list of goal to put to front the government and get help. but if he's not the charge, i would say that the risk for further and it challenges, i've re challenges the baltic states or to some of what the supply countries is, unfortunately not entirely suit. so when joe biden says, if put in, takes you credit and he won't stop there. and then we'll have something that we don't seek on not we don't have today. american troops fighting russian troops do you believe, but that is a possibility. even a distant one is anybody would say to me 2 years ago, i would say,

oh yes you have to like russia is very serious about natal article 5 commitment. it's definitely understanding that our symmetry between itself and nato. no nato is not at risk at all. right now, i'm not so sure if he is victorious in ukraine. if he sees that ukraine is a broken country, as he can occupied the lab with impunity, and there is a leader elect, donald trump, who challenges the utility alternator to american interests. that the tension to kind of challenge article 5 will be there. i still think that the risk is low or direct competition between russian the us. but the risk is unfortunately going up rock. but if we were to discover the article 5 isn't worth the paper, it's written on nato's finish. doesn't that? that's absolutely true. and that might be the data of the russian side. so many people who are wrong about putting this plan is to invade you crate because

objectively speaking, if you are a rational product, which is the list of downsides for rusher is just so long. it is skilled thousands office be both the good. it gets both professional military, it's sanctioned, it's isolating from the world is becoming junior partner of china. but we support and it's not the church and she's great on the 14. russia is frank's it. so what it is course is proven to be a winning course, at least for himself, and you get, impose this visit on the russian leads that the patient shall edge. article 5 in nato and chase the americans out of europe will be growing the support of this not getting younger. he's not getting any rational. so the risk are not 0. unfortunately, this might be the issue that he can stop scratching. you mean in other words? yeah, and this is exactly why getting serious about defense and getting as serious about

side when the and all the promises that were made. 2 years ago when rushing made it ukraine, things are really very necessary to fulfill not only to support ukraine, but for your own security and tell you meant, is there a way to go for it? unfortunately, let's look if we may add, pretends friendship with china. so you wrote last spring, but thanks to the war and you create russia and china are now closer allies, but at any time and the 2 countries more than the history, do you believe that's put in the new best friend? she jim thing would go along with the idea of a big a wall. i think that mr. a season being a cool new chair, less where the conflict between where the border worth the contact line between russia and ukraine is, as long as this war doesn't go nuclear and she is not blame to support that. she will respect american red lines which have been communicated to, you know, genetic,

military direct support, no military material and bind walrus. she follows that. why if russia is weakened, isolated, and more aligned and supported, i could try not. what's the bad use for it? so you only likes this situation. what about both of those of a foreign friends suddenly he's popping up in b. u a and saudi arabia where he was greeted as a very dear guest of the kingdom in moscow. he's been putting out the red carpet for far need is like the president of it wrong so much for the international i selection that was expected to follow is indictment tool war and war crimes charges . is he just flaunting his impunity, or is he busy putting together a new id west of access? 3 quick points. i think that's the illusion about the, the global unity in isolating russia. it's just the illusion and it's a fantasy. it's very easy to pass up to speed the upload or

a boat pretty seismic brush up the un general assembly. but so many countries in the global south, not already china, but also the largest democracy in the world. india are having a beneficial commercial relationship and they're not abandoning vladimir putting same goes for countries in the gulf, including u, a in saudi arabia, to receiving, quote. and with this, the symbols of prestige and welcome is also a way to show to the west uh that uh, this region as friends. and this is tied to the west and how do they offer gossett christ and war between israel and a moss. and finally, yes, mr poodle is trying to book this call, listen to the other. what's the is called the global majority. i don't think that anybody in the global south is really the leading to support and bunch of stuff that you spoke to where it gets to grade is the rebelling against us. had gemini,

but so many countries are following the narrow, pragmatic interest and blaming device on double standard. the say, what about iraq? what about of gun and stuff? and frankly, there was not that much introspection that we convinced this countries that russians were a gastric freight is entirely different level of violation of the national boards as to what expense. i mean, you've talked a bit about the russian economy, to what extent have improvements in that economy helped to keep the russian people, if not on site, then at least not protesting to the people protested. i'm just have thousands of them. i've gone, haven't they? they've left the country, but somehow they seem to have re aligned or color less the round the kremlin haven't pay is that'd be economy. we'd have we and that's the estimate of the wrong lease out for 1000000 people leaving the russia for good me included or a country,

or more than $100.00. 14000000. that's not too much. and these are people who are employable in global markets. there are so many people who want to leave russia but couldn't because of these of restrictions and many other policies for the remaining people. it's a mix all violence because protesting has a very top price. you see alex in nevada, they you see so many thousands of brave russians who have dear to protest this war and have been beaten at present at so what the russian society is optimized and we support these building keys regime on this level. i took this ation, f lack of unity, but then another element to this is really the economic prosperity because uh, the war has made a lot of low middle income families really receiving a lot of money because the government is paying people to go to the front lines

it's the gave didn't have to cash routes for tablets, but when did a deal? so it is a rational strategy for somebody to go to fight in ukraine because he's, dallas will be provided. you mentioned briefly the garza war um, it obviously diverts us weapons and ammunition from ukraine to israel. and it also leaves america increasingly isolated diplomatically so it's a play a benefit to prove to this that there's no downside for him in this war. it's a clear benefit to mr poodle that he hasn't created. there is no credible evidence that he was in a new way involved in come us attack. but she's definitely taking a one sided and reset the one sided for all from us. stands. he's not the eggs accusing the even balance russian for obviously not that much sympathy for what the, which sits a horrible job or sound tax. and yes, the us forces are diverted to israel, attention of us senior policy makers,

including president biden himself. and he's national security team is that brought it to the middle east, and then the double standards, all the vast, are something that needs to put and has a preach to did level south. and he has a for child around there. so very briefly, it doesn't be moscow is ending the year on something of a high looking better than it did a year ago. but if you look back, what do 23 has been a really surprisingly good year for me to put in. and it's really in the hands of the western policy meeker to make sure the 2024 is not as good for alexander gabriella. spring. good to have you on complex. i'm. thank you very much for your time. thank you so much for having we of the

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