to come have a page of this outtake, the highlights you every week in your inbox. subscribe. now the the slow crew context and ukraine will soon head into it served you with the pressure on care to advance on the battlefield. i'm re energize support in the west. my guess from belin is alexander w, director of the con, the russia you raises center. the bad news is that unfortunately, the support for your trade in the west or public is going down for now. russians. economy has stabilized and mr. put in, incisive on more crimes charges is none. the less finding plenty of friends to talk to and visit. so what is new found confidence tim, tim into a big a will with ukraine. i've even a fights with nato very if welcome to come fix zone.

thank you so much for having me. a week ago, nato secretary general young stocum, but wouldn't be alive to expect bad news from the war in ukraine. he doesn't say what you bring, take you a long hard look at this war is you credit on the way to losing i don't think that you're afraid is all on the way to losing now, but next year we'll definitely be crucial. and if you pray is not of the book position next year that that by shape the trajectory up the call like towards loss of war, i agree. so what we're seeing at the moment, this is a slow that you often see with major complex that's true. and i think that the comparison bases for this call, they could be blown, juan work, the lens, the rock iran war. we're now seeing that green has lost the initiative. it's pushing on some direction without major gains. it's summer counter offensive has

not yielded in major call, but victories. and then the russians are now on advance with terrible losses on their side and both material that equipment. but the russians are advancing. and what's more russians have a lot of money pumped into their military industrial complex and into recruiting use soldiers. so now the material advantage is gradually on the russian side, and without massive support for ukraine. we might be seen this accomplish on a trajectory for russia's victory e by the food and doesn't that cheapest max them elliptic objectives. and let's talk about the chances of uh, massive support for your credit. and because last month, nato foreign ministers tried to put the best face on the situation, they promised unwavering support as they portraits as the ukrainians bravely defend the country. um, the figures tell

a different story about that. not quite adding up to on wavering support. a new brand to provide us with 50000000000 euros and budget support. that's stuck in committee. a $60000000000.00 fund promised by the white house is stuck in congress . this is bad news, isn't that the bad news is bad unfortunately. uh theres support for your trade in the west or how public is going down. and then it also became a stores for olympics making for domestic purposes in the us and also for intra european union and conflict between some get rid of leadership and the rest of the union inside the you. we're talking at the moment when president zelinski is scheduled to arrive in washington, d. c. he's most likely to speak to the leather ship, all the senate, and the congress gets the about to see prison bite. and so i think that the,

the amount of support of the us and the timing, whether the really radians get the money they need to defend themselves for next year is up in the, or the fact that it's not kind of a guaranteed a very well scheduled train of support is a bad news, but i think that it's too early to be desperate. but i think that the dreary warning side is that it's most likely will be the last massive package for the next year. and the question is how wisely the ukrainians are to spend it. later this week usually does meet in brussels with the possibility of making a historic decision to open. accession talks with ukraine hungry has threatened to block the move you mentioned hungry a moment ago. either way, decisions that at this meeting, put aside the outcome of this war, couldn't buy, i'm supplies to you kind of already being drastically affected. but i think that

it's not deciding the outcomes of this more. but i think that if we don't have a positive decision, massive a uh, what support for you free then the trajectory also called so you can go into a negative direction for to you. and despite the bravery of ukrainian defendants and the resilience all the ukraine, as a society without massive influx, so western material support the situation, the pretty dar, the kia institute for the world economy set down in december. the 7th, newly commit today to ukraine, reached a new low between august and october this year, but almost 90 percent dropped compared to the same period last year. the crumbling must be jumping for joy is with the credit is and we've seen president coding gloating around out. i think he's meeting with rational and low senior military staff. he was awarding keywords of russia awards

a couple of days ago. and he said that grade doesn't act on and he doesn't have his own defense base. and this is why the trajectory all the columns, the for is in rushes, fever, i see might be wrong, long term, but these unfortunately right right now. and it's everything in the hands of western. oh, is it a leadership to problem to support and brought the white house national security advisor jake sullivan said last week, but any short, full in funding would quickly compromise ukraine's defense capabilities in your view. how long does you credit and have to get the weapons? it's calling for bits for its troops. not only failed to advance, but actually begin to retreat. oh, there is a discussion inside the trade in senior military leadership, but the political leadership, as well as among friends off you prayed in the west. what's the best strategy?

the ukraine should follow right now, because russia is probably dog in, but you, real advantage is on the russian side, whether it makes sense for the crate to try to break through the russian lines given how it was off to the troops off for the better approach. for now is not the chase calendar offense, so it's next year. but the good in 45 defenses. be able to retrieve the troops, do another round up invalidation train war troops and then come war prepared, probably in 2025. i think that's a probably be the issue right now, and depending on the decisions that the visitor, our leadership and political leadership will date, we'll see how the will go about whatever happened to all those extravagant promises that the ukraine received over the last 20 months. which with folsom and in many

ways unique look at the way the last, almost overnight into an organization that supplies military hardware look at the change of heart in germany, be much publicized site and then the turning point in history. the jobs to show spoke up, was that in your view or was a time line attached to the west largest. moscow was believe it was believed that hasn't it. the most good deeds ben's on the fact that western support for ukraine will evaporate at some point. that moscow has much more at stake, given disappointment is up session over this war and given how seemingly united the society is behind this war. i think that based on the work done by my colleague, carnegie endowment and read the less me now partners sociologist, dennis ball comp, we see down around 20 percent, a die hard supporters for these for the russian side and about 50 percent are very

ass up and we'll go into whatever direction the risk. so on the russian side, you have, it cannot be growth, you have increased military production and you have pockets because this more is the organizing prison all of the process for the policy in domestic bowls. you threaten the russian who is that the west at some point bill pack and lead. and again, it's all totally up to the western leadership, had to societies to and how you train to stand in this battle because i think that we have some communication gaps because the west, the meters help explain to that society is white. so crucial to you a support you great, and i think that's more questions iraq so, so there is a need, there was a need for a new round of explanation why this conflict is so it's essential to westside in the crown. so president job michelle was asked on this program about europe's commitment to ukraine. you said the you would stand by ukraine for as long as it takes to secure victory. do you think such promises were made in good faith?

they are, but at the same time we don't have a very clear definition. what victory is, that's also ease achieve. oh, we know what a lucky is, don't we? we've gotten to know what a loss is. when dealt with the know what the last was and the last is when you crean doesn't to cheat annual fits objectives. and the cost of this war is borne by both russia and the crate. but cost on the creative side will be much bigger. i think that right now are the discussions that you're having is that how realistic are the definitions for victory? put out by presidents, the lensky, which is 1991 of borders including crime, the reparations. so russia should pay for the damage and accountability for the work driven those, including both senior russian leadership and present will lead to hear from how cheap level is that if we are dealing with the nuclear power is questionable. and i

think that's year uh, the western leadership has in a smart way because there is no other way to tell you pregnant what the definition of victory should be. have pushed this to g of leadership itself to say that, oh, you create new leadership should define what the beach recall seduce and we'll be there with them till till they at. now i think it's the recording time for ukrainian leadership itself to define how realistic those goals are and what is the strategy to achieve something which will be the ukrainian leadership sticks to the position that it's not going to give up any land on the country. once the land back um that that looks increasing the achievable doesn't that i don't think that it's feasible to imagine that any you create new leadership will legally abandon any charge or occupied rush. be to grade work. the other 4 regions that happen are

actually occupied that and next by russia late next year. but they could be all the ways to brayden this issue and to say that's the orbital numbers are certainly be or unfortunately em. and if you grade achieves it's $5.00 to $9.00 to $1.00 bores. what prevents russia from shooting over the 1991 borders? it's not that ukrainians. well, when we gain territorial integrity of their countries as a really nice by the international community and then vladimir button, they'll say both, sorry, i lost you was unpacking, then go all or bind myself a plane ticket to the hate. so why don't the weight each, i'm sorry to advise you called go home uh, add to add to the county boots. you know, he can, he can not. uh, and we can imagine a scenario where she, who is this the more than stays in power of likes, like sample said after seas tobacco. think wait,

but it's unlikely. no. and how much, what do you put in bang on his legacy or annexation of premier in other parts of your great, mister god, boy, if the crumbling appears to have stabilized after you have gained the precautions in for this new today, the rather predictable plane crash that he suffered but will have been bothering the pretend, showed unexpected weakness the pressure might, someone have already decided, but all they need to do is give them another push and maybe they could clear the box to someone else taking over in the crime to do think so. it's like that crystallizing at the moment. i'm rushing leaders. no, i think that these hopes are true to you. i understand why people want to see somebody taking care of the world's flooding. they're putting problem, but that is unfortunately not happening to the country. pre gardens, virginia has only 45 minutes to put in scrape and see how it would mean that the most dangerous rival that's the also south fried and procrastinator for the problem

to get bigger and bigger. but now this problem is fixed. everybody in the elite got the message and everybody's not rounded round was by miss. look around this button, billingsley, but they understand what price they will pay if they ultimately step up against this. it puts you yourself wrote in july how the mute to the head exposed what you quote, the fragility of pollutants power system. people won't have forgotten that fragility will that what amounts to a deluge of for the lead and put it was by all accounts and some danger is always an opportunity for opponents, isn't it? that's just politics as live it's for you. but he also regime for sure, but time and again, we see that mr. poodle is learning some lessons, and that the system is adopted. remember, a how miserable russia look at that to feel at the very beginning. it's called to where he gradient really being in far less up in tejas position,

just pushed back and smash a lot of russians who at which a real security already. and yet, right now, we see that the russians are learning the lessons and able to charge the tie. something similar just happened to the political system. yes. then you didn't, you have showed how fragile the system is, but you're supporting can fix some of this which you one last some of the fall from seeking a so go off from, from his war and you grade, booting is preparing for an even bigger war. do you still feel that way? and if so, how big might this will be good. that's exactly what we're seeing now. mr. put in will invest 6 percent of gdp, g u defense and to where needs the frame or 2 percent refreshing the budget next year. we'll go to defense and security that's more worth that at any given moment since collab solve the solve it, you did. he is increasing the troops numbers and he's military industries working

in 3 ships using materials to defeat your great, so i think that for now the war is contained in ukraine, n t is victorious. i don't believe that you will be able to achieve his maximum list of goal to put the front of government into, you know, but if he's not the chart, i would say that the risk for further and a challenge is ivory challenges. the baltic states or to some of what the supply countries is, unfortunately not entirely suit. so when joe biden says, if put in, takes you credit and he won't stop there. and then we'll have something that we don't seek and that we don't have today. american troops fighting russian troops do you believe, but that is a possibility. even a distant one, if anybody would say to me 2 years ago, i would say, oh yes you have to like russia is very serious about need will article 5 commitment

. it's definitely understanding that our symmetry between itself and nato. no. nato is not at risk at all. right now, i'm not so sure if he is victorious in ukraine. if he sees that to crane is a broken country as he can occupied the land with impunity. and there is a leader elect, donald trump, will challenges the utility of nature to american interests that the pension to kind of show up for himself and you get, impose this visit on the russian leads that the patient shall edge article by in nato and chase the americans out of europe will be growing, the support is not getting younger, he's not getting any rational. so the risk are not 0. unfortunately, this might be the issue that he can stop scratching. you mean in other words? yeah, and this is exactly why getting serious about defense and getting as serious about

side with when the and all the promises that were made 2 years ago when rushing made it to great things are really very necessary to fulfill not only to support ukraine, but for your own security and tell you meant, is there a way to go for it and fortune? let's look if we may add pollutants, friendship with china. so you wrote last spring, but thanks to the war and you create russia and china are now closer allies. but at any time and the 2 countries mother in the history, do you believe that's put in the new best friend? she jim thing would go along with the idea of a big a wall. i think that mr. a season p in a cool new care less where the conflict between where the border worth the contact line between russia and ukraine is, as long as this war doesn't go nuclear and she is not blame to support that. she will respect american red lines which have been communicated to, you know, genetic,

military direct support, no military material and bind walrus. she follows that. why if russia is weekends, isolated and more align and supported in a to try not. what's the bad news for you? he only likes this situation. what about voters of a foreign friends suddenly he's popping up in b. u a and saudi arabia where he was greeted as a very dear guest of the kingdom in moscow, he's been putting out the red carpet for far. nita's liked the president of it wrong so much for the international i selection that was expected to follow is indictment tool war and war crimes charges. is he just flaunting his impunity or is he busy putting together a new id west of access? 3 quick points, i think that's the illusion about the global unity in isolating russia. it's just the illusion and it's a fantasy. it's very easy to cast up, see me,

or i'll blow it, or a boat pretty seismic rush of the un general assembly. but so many countries in the global south, not already china, but also the largest democracy in the world. india are having a beneficial commercial relationship and they're not abandoning vladimir putting same goes for countries in the gulf, including u, a in saudi arabia, to receiving, quote. and with this, the symbols of prestige and welcome is also a way to show to the west uh that, uh, this region as friends. and this is tied to the west and how do they offer gossett christ and war between israel and a moss. and finally, yes, mr poodle is trying to book this call, listen to the other. what's the is called the global majority. i don't think that anybody in the global south is really the leading to support and bunch of stuff that's used. brookfield where he gets to grade is the rebellion against us had

gemini, but so many countries are following the narrow, pragmatic interest and blaming device one double center. the say, what about iraq, what he bought a gun in stock? and frankly, there was not that much introspection that we convinced this countries that russians were a gastric freight is entirely different level of violation of the national boards to what expense. i mean, you talked a bit about the, the russian economy, to what extent have improvements in that economy helped to keep the russian people, if not on site, then at least not protesting to the people protested, i'm just the thousands of them. i've gone, haven't they? they've left the country, but somehow they seem to have re aligned or color less the round the kremlin haven't pay. is that the economy we have, we have the estimate of the wrong lease out for 1000000 people leaving the russia for good me included. for a country or more than 114000000,

that's not too much. and these are people who are employable in global markets. there are so many people who want to leave russia but couldn't because of these of restrictions and many other policies for the remaining people. it's a mix all violence because protesting has a very top price. you see alex in nevada and they, you see so many thousands of brave russians who have dear to protest this war and have been beaten. and the reason that so what the russian society is optimized in mr. putting these building. he is regime on this level. i took this ation, f lack of unity, but then another element to this is really the economic prosperity because of the war has made a lot of low middle income families really receiving a lot of money because the government is paying people to go into the product lines it's the gave didn't have to cash routes for tablets, but when did a deal?

so it is a rational strategy for somebody to go to fight in ukraine because he's, dallas will be provided. do you measure briefly the garza war? um, it obviously diverts us weapons and ammunition from ukraine to israel, and it also leaves america increasingly isolated diplomatically so it's a play a benefit to prove to this that there's no downside for him in this war. it's a clear benefit to mr. poodle that he hasn't created, there is no credible evidence that he was in any way involved in commerce attack. but she's definitely taken a one sided and reset the one sided pro, a mass stance. he is not to exit coaching the even balance russian foreign policy, not that much super people with a week since a horrible job or sound tax. and yes, the us, we forces are diverted to israel,

attention of us senior policy makers, including president biden himself. and he's national security team is that brought it to the middle east. and then the double standards of the vast are something that mr. food and has preach to the global south, and he has a fertile round it. so very briefly, it doesn't be moscow is ending the year on something of a high looking better than it did a year ago. the if you look back 2023 has been a really surprising the good year for me start putting and it's really in the hands of the west sun paul listed meeker to make sure the 2024 is not as good for alexander gabriella. it's been good to have your own complex. i'm thank you very much for your time. thank you so much for having we or the

sweden and the sorry hun visits the grave of his son who was killed and the conflict between guides to the gun violence is spreading throughout the country. the swedish government doing the focus on the 30 minutes. d. w wide as

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