the way back when i, i see that is kind of where we are in our evolution, right. thank you very much. thank you. the, the whole, these are a docking commotion ships in the red sea. this is kendra tom. the issue for the war and guys who are the who needs an um toilet to go and religious rebel groups from yemen, backed by 8 on for you, or somebody ok have for these attacks, the direct trip to international call most and many times security they have responded by jointly cutting out strikes on who the targets in him, in germany and other europe. emissions are also sensitive a naval emissions but this be the pre goes to the next regional conflict, especially with key players like it on. and so there may be a involved in this conflict. bandbox and global trade are already evident,

leading to supply shortages and production costs. so today on to the point we are discussing, who did tax on global trade is the middle east conflict escalating the hello and welcome to to the following don e shop, how do you sign in here in ballard? and today we have 3 good news. dylan bilmar, he is senior editor at the german newspaper, david mex on the bottom and we have bundled in phone gretel. she's a senior correspondent for the british magazine, the economist. and finally, we have dr. elizabeth candice joining us from london. she is the most us off. good in college, cambridge. oh, very well, i'm back. i'm to you all the thank you for joining donnie. let's start with you.

let's start with the impacts of what's happening right now with these strikes, end of etc. well, the impacts on the world economy already the although we don't feel them. let's remember this boots the red sea, which with these currently having an tow cold is one of the most important shipping routes in which right, whatsoever. the trade that goes through the comprises about 15 percent of which rate, it's the main trade route between asia and europe. so 2 of the most powerful players, the reason why we're not feeling the full extent of this choke, is because the shipping lines that usually transport goods through the red sea, on now taking away around africa. which raises the cost of transports enormously by about 20 to 30 percent. but at the moment, shipping companies all taking these losses upon themselves. but if this goes on for

a long time, then they are liable to cost on these costs to their clients. and those clients, namely the companies who input goods will pass them on to consumers. at some point, we're not going to just kind of 5 to 15 percent of what seaborne trade northwell trade in total, the civil and that. but this is going to be borne by the customers, typically, as mr. berman said, if, if, if the concert continues and it looks like that, that this might be the case. yes, at the moment, you know, it's tripping companies absolving it, and companies absolving is. but this is relatively new. so as you know, as the weeks go by, yes, of course we will be effective buys. right. now before we get into the details of global trade and what's going to happen and how the prices are going to increase, i'd like to go to elizabeth elizabeth, now we know the who these have been active since and 1990. we know that they've been targeting the cargo ship since the last couple of months. but if you can just put things in perspective for us in context, who are the, who these exactly invite,

obviously are relevant. or here's these, uh, a group that emerged in the northwest of yemen. that's just a corner of a vast country. so they might not seem that important box over the past 10 years, almost 10 years during a civil war that's been raging in the i'm and the who sees have managed to take of the territory on which about 2 thirds of the how many population lives. so that's about $20000000.00 people and their religious group, political groups, a military group, all at the same time on that all the text is very much informed by the religious outlook that political as cooled on sort of law, which means supporters partisans of gold and the slogan is very similar to the wrong with whom they also share a she e based islamic face. i should just say that the who sees do have

a slightly different brand, if she is them, but they have the same slogan, desk to america, dest israel, a cuss on the jews. and victories is slum. so having them in that area or if you haven't, that so heavily populated, feeling confident of to well, 9 years of civil war and well and, and supplied by iran. that's a very dangerous moment for us. thank you. now i know we could have a whole show on who the, who these are and how it started and what's happening right now. so thank you very much for a briefly explaining us what it is. and this is a very crucial route. so the american and british naval forces in the, let's see, have launched a series of strikes against will due to both dogs across given us president joe biden has said he will not hesitate to take photo military action if necessary. but the u. s. has also made clear that it does not want to see a bite and in conflict in the middle east. fighter jets are taking off their

targets the who to melissa in yemen. cleaning self defense. the usa, great britain and other allies, are launching dozens of assaults against the who t's who are attacking international merchant ships on the red sea. b e u was backing the military operation with a naval mission start to stabilize the situation in the red sea. germany also wants to participate by sending a forget thousands of people have taken to the streets and young men to protest israel and the usa who they see as the real aggressors. and who the leadership is showing signs that they are willing to escalate. in the law, do a lot of the american and british enemies, their full responsibility for this criminal aggression against us and our you many people, why don't you this will not go on punished or on, answered the good. does she like who to militia is supported by, you know, on controls, large parts of human since the beginning of the call,

the war, the cooties have positioned themselves as allies of home us or the us and its allies falling into a deal political trapped in human let's go back to elizabeth again. elizabeth, do you pick the rest of the folding in the geopolitical trap in human as it's really a strong possibility. now we have to understand the west is in a drawing of the us, especially this is really hard because on the one hand, they don't want to get some broiled and another bowl in the middle east. but only although they've run out of options other than military options. they've tried sanctions, they've tried cutting the flow of funds to use these. they've tried this international maritime falls in the red sea as a deterrent. and they've been passing away marseilles and drains. but it really hasn't done any good. so now we've moved to a situation of direct military action and i don't think it's going to work out well

. so yes and not sense. it is a truck. we have to remember that the who sees often 9 years will have already sustained over 25000 strikes by saudi arabia. and it didn't make that much difference. also the hold and fighters, they've managed to keep out. they 2 of the middle east, best invested ministries. so i'll be right back on the united arab emirates for the best possible decade. and of course, it's an asymmetric, well, you know, it's was just thinking that the us weaponry is extremely expensive and it needs to be accurate that talk to you must be accurate. where's the, who's these, they can just carry on was much cheaper weapon rate, and it doesn't matter if that accurate as you will to get so pointed out, just creating disruption in the red sea. that's enough to ultimately impact global markets. you mentioned style dna via now i know south you, anybody has been trying to push them back since 2015 and now we have you as

a new kid. so there must have been some calculations behind it. but if so, i'll do it because not managed to do it since 2015. what is it that makes us a new k to big these actions right now? means one strife or 2, they're not really going to help as well. i think there are a couple of elements here. number one, the us will have back to targeting abilities the, the saudi arabian strikes, what not always, not well targeted by, according to the human data project, about only about a 3rd of saudi strikes actually hit to talk it. but the 2nd thing that play here is i think that the united states and u. k. felt that they would look weak if they didn't respond. and of course in the office it is also true. perhaps this wasn't well thought through it because they also look weak. if they do respond down to it makes little difference. it

could also have just been a piece of a mouth miscalculation on the policy if the us and u. k. perhaps they thought that to show a false would hope to hear these back. i think that's wrong because the who sees actually stands to gain from these strikes. the reason i say that is that it feeds directly into the narratives of the united states as an aggressor in the region. one thing to launch a war against is long, so thought is how they will pitch it on to many people. that is how it will look. thank you so a miscalculation maybe from the west side, down in how do you see it? that was also a calculation from the who think side. as elizabeth mentioned, they seem to be profiting from this. so they knew that if they are back in the, let's see, they're going to get it back in response to that. how do you see the whole scenario? i think the, who these are gaining from the situation on tofal elizabeth is completely right before that they were one of the warring parties in yemen. now the who was these

have to be, have become an arab superstar by sea means that small melisha that is taking up the huge military might of both america and the seemingly invincible israel. they've gained a lot of status. and i think yvonne is also gaining because they show the kind of black mailing potential they have through this position on the red sea. but i wouldn't go so far as to say about the world. the west is miscalculating, that the west had to step deep. uh, not least because of the economic interests that it is western companies that are demanding from the west to do something about it. and also if you look at it after that from an international perspective, it cons be permitted, but a small melisha cuts off of such vital trade routes have to be done. and in that way, the west was also able to co op powers to it's middle east strategy,

which wouldn't be part of less than middle east strategy. so far, that is the united nations security council resolution of backing these the techs on the fees. so that means that china and russia in with the west, and this would normally all the on the side of the rock. so although there is no military solution to the who is the problem, i think the west has gone in the right direction and it has actually gone up support for reducing a lot of play of china. the show we have middle east you, if you can, your how do you see the situation? would you say that the current situation is a result of mismanagement of them in crisis by the us? um, i wouldn't say that because i'm to now the us has not played a huge phone and in the human crisis, and i think what we're seeing now, you know, there's a lot of debate about whether the country is, is,

is escalate in the vision. i think it has escalated so we're, we're seeing that the, the question now is how much and how much more would it be us be prepared to interview so, so we, i think at the, at the, at quite a crucial point of the whole conflict and the hope of course, is that the, you know, that is at least remain stable. you said it has escalated, do you think it's beyond control now? work on it, so it'd be contained the situation. i think it can still be contained by that. but it's, you know, it's a conflict beyond the cause or conflict which is will how it started. right. so, so you know that so many different areas in the region way who you know, where, where, where conflict has accepted in northern israel, in human, in the betsy, you know, wherever you look through this. so there's something going on. now, who is like, come us about, do you have an interest as an echo of all done, it was how difficult is it for us to target them? lo and behold, from elizabeth to that of us, of better equipped themselves,

of course in this case, but still how difficult would it be to dog and them, especially considering the civilian population in mind. so it's incredibly difficult to target them. there is so far, only one means that the us have and that is area level. and that is no scenario for which like with ease of better prepared, then ariel wolf or they've been climbing and defending themselves against saudi strikes for years and years. and that's true, my personality is of very inaccurate with them being because they have very little practice. this is why pilots used to fly very, very high in order to protect themselves. and that to made those strikes, so inaccurate and so terrible for the civilian population. the americans are better attacked, but the who fees are very mobile by of the move, the unit very quickly from one point to the other in order to hide them as cycles and drug goods. and uh, they have this training, it will help them tremendously. also it gets to be americans,

there is no way if the americans will eradicate. they have a valid train, the hub, backing from it on elizabeth is on, has denied having any connections with the ex, around saves. we do support with these, but only politically is anyone really buying that argument? i don't think any one is buying. that's argument. it's certainly true that the who sees and sees yeah, sticks to these attacks for their own reasons, works very well for them. domestically place to that base, it's wins and bro, to support actually it's one of the most popular things that he sees have done over the past decade. and of course, it's increases by leverage with saudi arabia who is trying to extract itself from the many civil war and internationally. it's built in a more publicity than anything else, but they would not be able to operate at this level. were it not full? it radian supply of much more sophisticated weaponry training and also intelligence. i very much agree with what daniel has said. i think the who's these

are able to cope with these attacks against them. and they might be degraded, but they don't have to be sophisticated in order to continue to disrupt and they have a lot of experience of that. what i think they have calculated is that the us is extremely unlikely to get into a boots on the ground situation. in yemen, so a couple of reasons. first, they've seen that the us was retreating rather shamefully and sample that please from afghanistan. they didn't do that well in iraq either, and it's unlikely that they would want to gets in the 4 t m and election year. so i think that is probably got time on this side and also support on that side at least until something can be done about israel and gone. so i'm therefore take the moral high ground away from me.

now, elizabeth mentioned the election. yeah. what does by to the strategy going to be like, it's a very crucial here for by the yeah. and he has to focus on domestic politics and hung on his space on his boot test. but he could not, not respond right to the attacks and international shipping. so in that sense, i think he's done the right thing and he would continue to do that as long list who stays continue to attack international vessels and stuff needs the ones in that complex. but i think just more generally. so that's, i think what he's going to do, he will, as long as this has to sort out, he will continue to, to do what the, what the americans are doing. now. china has not responded to this, but india has the indian foreign minister of talk to it on about it and has these grave concerns. nope. do you think that would make any difference in the situation under contract? unfortunately, i don't think if we make much of a difference in the of raising great concerns. no, i don't think so. daniel, i think india in itself. maybe not, although they have been receiving

a regular oil at the time of sanctions. so they are a customer for him on a so those deliveries where the uh, mainly on the radar, which i think is more decisive. here is china. um, although china hasn't commented on the whole the a situation itself, china has started criticizing drones actions. think about the bombings in pockets time conducted by yvonne, which we have slightly scraped. china has condemned that. and that's decisive because both pocket stone and long key allies to china in its middle east strategy . so we also see the china as unable to keep older, even among its own allies and the economic situation with the disruption of bureau, asian trade. that's a major economic factor for china, which is in a bad state economically. so china will be likely to step in at some point if this goes on for much longer. i think that last point is very important. the economy is

it's, it's not in great shape. you know, 5 percent for the 5 percent of crisis is by low by chinese. send us and a full for he to remain as strong as he is. now, you know, he's over the we can spies that you cannot make problems at home. so he didn't, he would want to contain this and, and so i think the chinese was step in sooner rather than later. and then we're already part of the security council resolution on the host east. so they are starting to step in, even though interestingly following the united states, not replacing them as a provider of what. mm hm. so india has china really probably will end in business as a majorly hit by the facts and the red sea as 80 percent of its exports to europe take place. why, of the stuart? and it's not just india about $17000.00 ships go to the so is going out every year, amounting to one trillion dollars worth of goods. so the impact on supply chain seems inevitable. the ships are the target, whether containers or tankers,

cody rebels, are attacking, and capturing merchant vessels been kidnapping their crews along the red sea. the main route between europe and asia. every year, a 3rd of the world's container shipments passed this way. now ships are avoiding the red sea by sailing around africa, a 5000 kilometer detour that more than doubles the journey of time. an expensive deviation that's increase the cost per container by at least 50 percent. the large companies are complaining about their 1st supply bottlenecks, including tesla and brandon berg. the assembly lines of the plant near berlin has been at a near standstill for 2 weeks due to a shortage of batteries from china, according to internal information from the european external action service. the economic damage caused by the who the rebel attacks currently amounts to around $360000000.00 euros per hour. how much damage are the hootie attacks causing to

global trade? $360000000.00 euros for us. that's actually your calculation. that's quite a bit. is this going to be the new norman? well, to be quite exact. it was a calculation, but mine use paypal uh golf knowledge of that was made with in the european next to the election service. but we were the ones lucky enough to report it for us. it's, of course, a tremendous sum. it's about billions every day. and if you also think about the structural impact, the kinds of goods that are affected by that you see the magnitude of lot. remember that's most micro chips that are built into any goods whatsoever. come from asia, most of them from taiwan. and these deliveries also use the route through the red sea. now think of all those goods of all those devices today that contain micro chips. and that goes back even to households movies. so what happened and go over

time. exactly. and if this is disrupted, then the impact is huge on how the company, right. the detroit is leading to an extra 10 days of shipping back. and the extra time means extra cost for the companies and the extra cost would obviously be borne by the consumers. so it shouldn't be prepared ourselves for a global price, higher of consumer goods. um, yes, we should prepare houses for that and this bits comes as a time when inflation, at least in europe, has just sort of started to go down a little bit. and people have breathing a sigh of relief. so it's not a good time. but i think we need to prepare also. so exactly that. and what about oil prices? there's a lot of speculation about that as well. so in here we need to be prepared for high or price is high up higher prices for petrol. it's not of a cheerful prospect that we need to be prepared for bath times. elizabeth, now do these have want that'd be able to continue doing this for as long as the

water and goes that goes on really this warnings back feo or will this deal think of any chance of this leading to a fees file? a nice i'm, i'm very, i'm think this is very, very unlikely. a c sly is not something that they use these are looking for. they are in fact still recruiting and they're recruiting on the batch of what's happening in gone to the promising to send, send you recruits to help palestinians. but in fact, they all being deployed to fronts around gm. and this does not look like a groups that's seeking peace. now over the united nations, let's electrical process. looks like it's on the costs. in fact, now that the who sees have just been designated a terrorist group by the united states. that process could be in jeopardy, and the who sees if the know in the political process will likely continue that will i see that around patient is going south towards the babylon monday,

straight and the full. i think that this is going to be a long war they have use on that side too. so that wouldn't be any ends to this disruption, but for how long come to sustain, i mean human is going through a humanitarian crisis. that's right, but the, here's these off and they have quite a high tolerance, full casualties and full misery inflicted on the populations. and one was asked to remember that they have been at war for almost 20 years. if you count the civil was in the north. if human from 2004, i'm sorry, this is a group that has seen rule as a way of life and with a huge population over 50 percent of them are under the age of 20. and so it will have only 9 more. and that means that it's going to be a long, full trying to disengage that young population. that stuff with propaganda from the war and don't for nation counts over the summer as unless the us talk, it's really,

really successfully manages to degrade an enormous amount to produce the equipment and they haven't hidden on the ground. and none of that, as i, i see happening, then i don't see how this will end any time soon. so this is going to be a long war. is there any other thoughts possible? feel for your last pause. we are at the end of the show, hopefully well the will will for sure, take almost half the take as long as the conflict and the guys continue. so if there is any resolution, any time soon, that's a good chance that they could and, but sadly, it doesn't look that way. so we have to prepare for high prices, oil and consumer goods. yes, although i agree that the war itself will go on for a long time. if you need not affect the world economy for a long time, because the sponsors of the who face china, yvonne mainly will not tolerate this on the pressure of to on thank you. so this is going to be a long war. that's all the time we have. what do you will think about the attacks?

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