mary, today and election day in november, a lot can happen, but look around the world from russia's war and ukraine potentials over taiwan to the is really palestinian conflict. geo politics appear to be in a holding pattern. tonight, a world reckoning with a 2nd, trump presidency in terms of foreign policy, is president biden, already a lame duck and break off in berlin. this is the day. the choices are so strong. i bought it for him. last time. it was, it was touching, go, would not have bought it for him. if i knew what was going to happen, but then there were a few issues in the end that trump on. i feel like we need to get younger than that would be times where i would vote republican, but at this point i just can't imagine loading again with what i've seen. i don't

know, we've had the same system for so long. i think we need change to me. the biggest issue is our democracy. i just really don't want our country to get donald trump again has been a lot of attacks on him, but i ignore the ignore that also coming up the uranium threat to israel, a network of proxies or using missiles and means and that despite reprisals from israel, model for someone who says, why not detecting you ran we are attacking it 2 homes around is the head a deal to this, and you can see its tentacles all around the, to our viewers watching on tv as in the united states into all of you around the world welcome. we begin today with the truck factor in global geo politics. the world is watching what happens in new hampshire today and what it will mean moving

forward towards the election day in november. and there is the saying about elections, people elect the candidates, they deserved. well that may or may not be true. but in the united states, in this year's presidential election, the voters may very well not get what they want. a majority say they do not want a repeat to the 2020 joe biden. donald trump contest. the assumption, however, is that a repeat is all but guaranteed. in fact, america's allies and its enemies appear to be behaving more and more on the assumption that there will be a 2nd trump presidency. we'll discuss this in just a moment, but 1st, take a listen to what the trump factor sounds like. look, nato is taking advantage of our country. the european countries took advantage of russia said once they take ukraine. poland and the baltics are next. those are nato countries that puts america at war. that's why we should give you credit the

equipment and ammunition they need to win. but i think we are talking too much about on them and you could well be elected again despite the fact that many people in europe where we are now or not really is biggest fans, the ships and the people our selves for a possible 2nd. so for donald trump by fostering our european competitive as well, my next steps says that donald trump is already receiving via politics into 2 distinctive camps, those anticipating a boom and those bracing for anything. but graham allison served as assistant secretary of defense under president clinton. he's been the advisor at the pentagon and every administration from ronald reagan to donald trump. and he was the founding dean of the harvard kennedy school of government, where he has taught for 5 decades professor and assistant secretary alison, it's good to have you with this tonight. i'd like to if i could just because i'd like to discuss your recent article in foreign affairs and just a moment. but 1st you attended the word economic form in davos,

switzerland last week. i'd like to get your take on what they were saying there. um, is it all about a 2nd trump presidency? which certainly yes. serves the over the specter of trump. i'm going to training for the 1st time people's consciousness and i was one of them said that they were, i had a sense of the ghost of christmas past. so i think those who remembered the trump administration mainly did strong with a c or a lower. yeah. let me just talk a little bit then maybe about the ghost of christmas. future of you, right? and for an affair is that russian president vladimir putin is counting on a trump victory. what does this mean in your opinion for you cree? and i think there's no question the more and you probably will continue through

2024 uh and uh, filling and destruction that the ukrainians have suffered in the past year is the best predictor of what they've got in store for the year. ahead in the article, i asked the question that i've noticed this already in the, you know, in, in watching the tea leaves. that if, if somebody were prepared to settle the war at this point for a long speech, fire, or armistice with the troops staying in place where they are. so russia still controlling about 20 percent of your plate? i think clinton would very likely say thank you very much, but i'm going to take my better than even chance that a year from now i'm going to be dealing with trump 12 percent very clearly. he would tell soleski we're struggling this in one day. we've cut off false report for

you. you're making the best deal you can. this war is over. so if you compare all what ever could be offered to put in the day, was what he makes might be in store a year from now. i will see a likely hedge, but i think that's some of our hedge or hesitation or is infecting us relations with all other countries today are same page about whether any year the us may be under radically different management. yeah. and i want to share one second with him, your article um, with our viewers. and this has to do with european weapons for ukraine. and you right? when considering how many tanks are artillery shells to send to ukraine, some europeans are now pausing to ask whether they might need those arms for their own defense or trump to be elected in november. that's quite a statement to make of mr. allison. i mean, in that we hope it's not for shadowing,

but do you see trump as president, being a green light to buy them you're putting to push as far as he wants meaning beyond ukraine? well, i would, i would say that he is as a green light, but i would say that the consequence of trump, if he were to tax the way that he did in the last administration, in his disregard for alliances and shoes, clear discussion as you can. if you look at the letter of resignation by his secretary of defense to matters about the differences between matters and prop over the alliance is quite clear. top part from time to time. maybe we just withdrawal from in a toilet. and if god forbid, we should do that or even come close to doing so,

the consequences for nato would be a catastrophic tongue. cataclysmic and european countries would have to be thinking about the role of defense. now that's just judging that they should be busy, but i mean, yeah, i long and then in favor of, of you, europeans being more serious about their own defense capabilities. but i think it's for the 1st time in the conversations i've heard in germany and france it. so some of the other countries, people are thinking, you know, maybe we really would have to fight for ourselves. and if we did maybe tied shore artillery shells or, you know about our own defense, did this, this anticipation, fear you can call a dread of a 2nd drop. it has the world in a sort of a standby mode. doesn't that make joe biden? a 1st term lame dog president between now and election day and that's

a painful question. and unfortunately, to some extent, the answer has to be yes. when the present biden alert of his national security team or trying to deal with anyone today say, let's settle on this today that they have to recognize that they do recognize that the party with the daily is asking themselves well. but if i don't like the terms today, what might they look like a year from now? and similarly, if i do accept the terms the day, what could happen a year from now? nobody can forget that the obama administration negotiated painfully. with all of the big patrice and claim germany, the reading and book, we agree with the j. p. c. o a. and that in his 1st year in the office, president troubles said,

we'll just tell the shop and proceed independently in our own. you know, in our own path. so prisoners have a great deal of discretion and particularly given the, for the different divisions within congress. getting a treaty level agreement, or 2 thirds of the senate would agree on anything, is almost impossible. so, understandably, countries are hedging. but understand, i believe that we're giving the head for president the why do you think that explains what we're seeing and is real? why is real as prime minister netanyahu was now so openly defiant of israel's most important ally, the us when he says that he will not support a 2 state solution to these really balanced in in crisis. i think that's his part of it. i think that in part, i mean the main thing is this has been b, b 0. this is at his heart. he really believes this. secondly, it's

a sensual for the coalition, including the right wing that he's we have all these people here been bower, but certainly i think he's looking over his shoulder say, i have had a very good relationship with the truck. i think guys are in the manage, the americans or mr. watson. i want to ask you before we run out of time, you know, we are in primary season in the united states last night. the co founder of the lincoln project re, galen. he told me on this program that a win for donald trump in november, a 2nd, trump presidency would guarantee the end of us democracy and the end of the world order, which the u. s. has led for 7 decades. those are strong words. do you agree? uh no, i think that's too strong. i think that the uh i probably have a 90 somewhat nice faith in american democracy. i think the country has gone through the 1st of payroll for the correct one. we

actually did have a civil war. we should remember that which almost the country was split into 2. we went to a great depression, which you could have seen the rise the past year. so we didn't. so i, i think the trip, the american political traditions are strong. the american people ultimately uh, are more sensible than that. they made a pretty rich voyage, color i, i would, yeah. i'd take that to your, your image in pain, both from the, by the administration and from the truck and ministration. that the election of their address very well mean the end of american democracy or the end of america. as we know it by the country has been resilient. i think you to introduce you to resilience. and as word buffet said nobody's ever made plenty of the long run selling the us short. all right,

and with that positive that the silver lining of the story will say, thank you to professor graham allison from harvard university professor alison has been good talking with me. please come back next time. thank you. thank you very much. i. i went out to israel's war against the mos in guns that tuesday was the deadly is day for is really forces since the home off terror attacks on october 7th, $24.00 is really soldiers were killed in the gaza strip as the military tried to in circle southern guns as main city boats and the soldiers were killed in an explosion in central garza, according to is really military officials. 2 buildings that they had been mine for demolition collapsed after her. most militants fired at a nearby tank is really prime minister benjamin at yahoo, called in one of the most difficult days for his country. and he added, it is real, will not stop fighting until absolutely victory is achieved. i want to ask them

when they come off as big as the porters is, the regime in iran, which has a goal of destroying is real, runs influence reaches far beyond tomas and gaza, the clerical regime and t. ron is using a network of proxy stretching from israel's border with 11 on to iraq, to syria, and along the red sea. all of these proxies are part of the strategy against israel and its main. l. y. the united states is ready troops on the advance footage from israel as minute tree shows its policies fighting in the gaza strip. 5 minutes to benjamin netanyahu has repeatedly framed to this as a struggle between israel underground which backs a mass. israel has long been locked in a shot, a wall with 2 round conducting co, but strikes and targeted killings. it was believed to be in behind this striking, damascus at the weekend. but nothing yahoo is safe. his country is not being direct

conflicts with around the model for someone who says, why not detecting you ran we are attacking into the run is the head a deal to this and you can see its tentacles all around. it's a round box, a network of militant groups throughout the middle east, among the goals to undermine his royal and dr. balance american influence. these proxies have become more active following the october 7th tiro attacks in lebanon to run supports in arms hezbollah, seen by some countries as a terrorist organization is fight as fire rockets into israel. on an almost daily basis is re elizabeth hunting fall. yeah, these images released by these really all me. but while the situation, hey, at the border is tense. so you, for each side is being careful to avoid an escalation. iran also on the who face and on group and human super bowl, which is these control of large parts of the country, including the carpets,

was sent off. now the who's these are we're talking commercial ships in the red sea . they released this video showing them boarding and seizing a congress so they say they, i think it's sort of dire, would say with the palestinians. well yeah, yeah, man is bravely standing against israel. thank god for your beautiful efforts. brave mighty and proud jim and is defending the oppressed and strong palestinian people the most competitive for this thing. the united states and others have sent warships to the region and launch strikes on who's the targets, or another friends in iraq and syria. what a round appears to be encouraging is malicious. to attack us military bases, washington has responded with his own strikes. others are so israel as president is quoting, for global, responds to the east challenges care. there is an empire of ego emanating from to her, on the proxies all over the region, quietly, larking, toronto,

mine any piece process and any stability of the world. and that is exactly what we are seeing and they have to be faced by very strong coordination. for the moments garza is the most active friends in these railways, cold war whip around. but turbines, proxies are becoming more heavily involved. each a strike and counter strike could bring, besides, closer to open conflict. what i'm doing now bye alex, the tanka director of the run program at the middle east institute in washington dc . mr. protect, that's going to help me with this, this, this growing involvement of iran, proxies what is driving all of it? is it all about the war in gaza? and you know, i think in many ways we really need to go back to the creation of this nomic republic back in 1979. and when i turn the home and he came to power,

he kind of create an agenda that this is his successor. i to the harmony was being powers is 89, have been pursuing, which is basically the 2 pillars of this regional agenda as to end the state of israel as we know it. and to push the united states out of the region. and i think, you know, this island republic has been pretty fateful and sticking to this agenda at a very high cost 20 radian nation and people. but that's what we are at. now. having said that, on the one hand, well they do want to push the united states out of the region and confront israel as we've heard the ratings to bring to the se himself and menu occasions since october 7 arrived is not in the business of confronting to us or is israel military directly? so what they're doing instead is the sort of low intensity warfare through this network of a groups that they have created in the last few decades. but it's still not without its risks because what do you right, does not know is the reaction from the west uh, ultimate, it could,

could be quite costly for you. right? yeah. i, i've read that it is the goal of the islamic republic of iran to not to kill israel, not with one blow, but with 50 minor or smalls stabbing wounds if you will. and with that in mind, do you think then that iran has more plans and if yes, what might that look like? a i think the reading game plan is pretty obvious in the short term is just bring about a ceasefire in god's as quickly as possible. both for the military and reasons as they say, but also to salvage as much of the how much community wing as possible the re neighbors. you would like to see a minute. you, we almost exist and continue to be a point of concern for the is rate is going forward in years to come. so that's the sort of game plan in the short term. i think, you know, long term 2 things that iran is banking on. one is not to get it subtract into

original war. certainly not the one that involves the united states. because once the us into the war against the right doesn't really push these nomic republic, i'd risk. i mean, if you trip this, diamond republic is not a certainty, is a regime that is huge on popular with its own people. this is a regime that has pursued a foreign policy. that's a huge, unpopular with the rating and public. so you don't take a big risk finding the united states and for that reason they don't want to go there. at the same time. what they're hoping to see is that what israel is doing in gaza, it's conduct in gaza, will undermine israel's long term presence in the middle east. and for example, chip away of support in put countries that recently signed the abram accords, the saudis, the way and so forth. so that i see, i think, and in summary is what the radians are playing on. how has iran regional policy shifted since the start of the war in gauze a bit?

it really has, and i mean to, to pick big issues that i just mentioned in terms of trying to save as much of a mazda as possible. keep his ball out of the war and also prevent it direct confrontation, united states, those things have been true since they want. what we saw in the last few weeks, particularly the attack in the city of pure mind, but isis for us on. and you really in response to it when they started finding ballistic missiles into syria, iraq, but also package that it's sort of create a new set of questions into writing as somebody was in iran watcher. i think they're now wondering if what they have done, particularly is to be practice starting with the right course of action, you know, to fire off ballistic missiles of the country. that is 3 times the year population that has nuclear arsenal. it just suggested recklessness on the part of the ring and regime that ought to concern all of us. so what, what has to hope that messages are going to tear around that? look, one thing is to have proxies. fire off, you know,

small rockets into northern israel and get away with it. another thing is it is to for you, right to think that he can afford original war against adversaries that are much bigger than a ride has faced in recent years. you know, on the outside people looking in at the situation that would consider the abraham records are we've seen several muslim majority countries managed to normalize relations with israel and then they, they look at me as well. i mean, we probably could be running and ask, why hasn't iran managed to do this? i mean, is it as simple as, as a, she assumed the divide or is there more to it as well? the, the reading, the imagery towards israel is limited to design, made republics leadership. they read people are not a, you know, i teach really. and before 1979, you're right in israel had good relations as we all know. but as i said, i to the committee came in 1979, decided to turn this in into a issue that his regime would invest in has done at a very high cost of i to the family. who is the leader today at age of 84?

i doubt very much. he's going to change his position. but i think people that are sort of waiting on the wings trying to maybe be the successors to, to this, to bring meter, they need to really seriously do better. soul searching is why do you run doing visit the era israel, of any serious benefit to the reading and national interest. i think most objective observers would say, no. it's an ideological commitment by this receipts. but if they chose a different course of action, be israel. that would really benefit you around because it will break it's isolation. i'm wondering to help this entire situation is effecting a wrong domestically thinking about the recent age protests against the government . there's the faltering economy and there's the 45th anniversary of the islamic republic, which is coming up soon. right. well, i mean, this goes back to what i said before about the regions and regional war being something that's too much of a risk for i to the farming

a. and the generals in the revolution of guards precisely for, for the fact that you just mentioned public sentiment inside of it, right? this is a very angry, rainy, pollock. this is a public that looks around and inside of the border, seizing competence, mismanagement corruption on scales and never seen before. and in terms of foreign policy of regime that is basically taking risks everywhere you look while not being able to protect the radians citizens against basic threat such as ices from for us on as we just saw in with the attack in clermont. so it's a, it's a regime that, it's really, it's a regional policy was put, put to a vote inside of it, right. i have no doubt it would not be able to do with a one point final point if i make but go ahead on what be heard from the got 30 seconds. go ahead and take a look at the issue also. is this iran benefits from other peoples in the region? a particular in this case is well making mistakes. if there was a real serious attempt to,

to speak to alicia in uh by the palestinians and israelis that uranian militant message would be so harder for to arrive to sell. so that's important for us to alex, the tank of director of the run program at the middle east institute. mr. battalion, we appreciate your time and your analysis tonight. thank you. thank you for the day continues online you'll find is on the x also known as twitter and youtube and dw news. you can follow me if brent dot tv have remember whatever happens between now and then tomorrow is another day. we'll see you then everybody the

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