on things today, that is the, you're watching the news off next off to the break. we talk to a senior researcher from the international monetary fund about a likely after on for the global economy. 5 businesses in germany are struggling using the cost from a sponsor. it's one of the sale when he knows how to use it and pretend this guy knows about energy in a way that these is like structures have no idea what doesn't look behind the facade of this image of john, tell us gas problem. brushes political wedding thoughts, february 3rd on dw, the germany is being left behind, as the global economy out performs expectations. that's a conclusion you can draw from the international monetary funds latest, well,

economic outlook update. so let's discuss what the i m. s. things 20 valuable housing store with petticoat brooks, deputy director of the i'm us research department. thanks a lot for being with us here on data over your business. if i can just put you on the spot to start with, i'm ask you to sum up in just a sentence. what 2024 is looking like from a global economic perspective. sure, for the global economy, we see declining inflation and steady growth, which opened up clear a path to a softer landing, a soft atlantic actually. so that's, that's generally good news for the economy as a whole. but let's have a look at how gross is going around the world. let's get a quick look at just a quick math that we put together. the strongest price that we're seeing in terms of writing for, according to the math is gonna be coming out of a, with a solid state, goes for india or in positive se asia, the line with expects 4.6 percent growth from china. although i think badging would

prefer that to be somewhere closer to 5 percent. the 2 point one percent projects for the usa is stronger than previous forecast, but look it up. so i guess a gemini is lacking well behind the spelling struggle was to get the wheels going again to get his economy up to speed. just say we're point 5 percent growth forecast for this year. as a pressure co wave of books. we'll talk through a few of the figures we've just seen that, but let's start with that number for germany. it is out performing in comparison with the economy is the i m f is now less optimistic for the country for this year . why? as we see the different countries having being effected very differently over the past couple of years by the numerous shocks that have hit. so germany into your area more broadly has been very much affected by the large energy shock. the terms of trade shock that we have observed then that as far as has affected inflation, is it affected alpha?

so we had expected a recovery to start in with. so expecting that in for this year. but compared to all the previous forecasts for germany, we've seen just the more sluggish and a restart the private. uh huh. consumption and sentiment has remained relatively weak. but all of that being said, we do expect the rebound to happen. as inflation comes down, real incomes are going to go up. and the brunt of the monetary type thing that has happened is, is also going to materialize. so in the 2nd half of the year, we are certainly expecting growth to, to pick up substantially. did you find any evidence of why domestic consumption hadn't reached this other level? was that you were expecting it to be reaching by this point? well, i think a lot, again has to do with the log decides of these shots that we had seen. i mean, we have seen, of course energy prices coming down,

but the impact of that is been takes a while to materialize. and also again, you know, real incomes have been eroded. so i think it's in the stand about that, that people would be a little bit more cautious when they, when they spend, and also compare to the us. um they, i think there's being less of kind of tapping into excess savings in order to, to fund a private assumption. so that i think is another factor that has made a difference in, in recent quarters. demons of being a bit more frugal with the nit expected. that's one way to put it. and i'm also on that map. we saw sheets guys in, posit southeast asia and i in the 56 percent in indonesia or in the philippines. something a key role in maintaining global christ. yeah, if we look at the overall growth figure, not the revisions, but the growth of bulk of that is really driven by, by countries in,

in asia. it's india and even china. although the growth rates, they are not as what they used to be in past years, but still very, very robust growth. and as you mentioned, indonesia, philippines and so on. this is a very dynamic part of the world and the underlying trend growth rate. there. i just significantly higher than they are in advanced economies, but also in other emerging market 3 region. okay, well, let's now look even why to the picture and talk by the end of the global economy. and all of which of course is contribution to buy these things we've already been talking about with this. just give us a quick snapshots of the state of the world economy a by the i m. s reckoning global economic growth is expected to be 3 point one percent this year, which is slightly up on the most previous forecast. and a 2025 is projected to be 3.2 percent percent, as well as just batting in mind that i still found that for the present, demick average that has made name of 3.8 percent playable grace. anyway,

let's bring back betsy. echo brooks from the i m s. you're now more optimistic for the global effort level. grace this is on, you know, just a few months ago was changed us and we are a bit more optimistic. we have seen a lot of resilience across the board, and we've seen this in economies like us in china, but also in, in a number of large emerging market economies. and the reasons for this resilience have to do with some of the consumer spending, but also government spending as well as on the supply side. we've been surprised by the better than expected labor force participation that we see. another way of putting it that may be the scarring from depend, demik is being less than what we had previously anticipated, which is good news. and this is also why we're seeing these, the kind of different developments on inflation and growth. we have

a upward revision for growth, but a downward revision for inflation when we exclude, excuse me, examples, extreme cases, such as surgeon, teen. yeah, indeed many central banks do appear to be a winning that war on inflation of war that began joining the pandemic and reach to speak in many places in 2022. so play will headline, inflation looks set to fall from industry to $6.00 in 2023 to 5.8 this year. and to continue to was target level as in 2025 is folding faster in most regions and previously expected and having a less severe impact on employment then some have said you kind of just touched on this particular brooks, but i mean what, what's your assessment of the reason for inflation fully not bit faster than had been expected. i guess. so the some of the supply side, the positive supply side developments that i mentioned has to stay the role here.

as i said, the, the labor force participation coming down. but also the of the supply disruptions that had been a big issue in the past. all of those have also been on my mother rating. of course, monetary policy has also played its role in terms of tightening financing conditions and also through indirect effects of through commodity prices. monetary policy is really done his job in terms of containing and preventing inflation expectations from rising and kind of contributing to, to an inflation spiral. so i think that has also been a very positive development, and several positive reports does come with a few warnings isn't and one of those from the i m f as in their governments and then central function decline, victory over inflation to early. i mean, what's, what's the danger of that? as indeed we do see the risk. so this stage to be probably balanced

in to be to 2 sided. but i think the same can be said about monetary policy, and there is a risk that and we talk about this, that there is a risk of declaring victory to early. the problem with that would be that then the inflation problem would not be solved. a real incomes are not going to go off, and then the longer it takes to actually solve the problem than the, the, the more painful it would be to, to do so. so this is why we think it's so important to kind of to finish the job and to bring installation back to target. although of course, the risk and the other direction as well. and we talk about those as well. some of those have been very glad to see i've in the past couple of years of this frank venting of the global economy effectively. what we seem to be getting is in a china and its allies and the west on the other side of the report from the m. s. i mean, it was against that. so i think the costs of that fragmentation of the people that

are participating, that fragmentation will say it's a small move. what does the i'm a site that as well we have seen unfortunately a rise in trade restriction in the export restrictions that really exploded over the past couple of years. and i think that has been again a sign of the fragmentation which you mentioned. this fragmentation can cover can affect different areas and we've done a lot of research on this. we've shown that it's impact negative impact on f. d, i on, on commodities on a lot more broadly on trade in our estimates of the overall impact for uh, for global output show that these numbers going to be fairly large. they can be up to 7 percent of the gdp in the medium term. although of course, there's a lot of uncertainty around that. and what's important to keep in mind is that this

is happening in an environment where global growth is a still quite modest arg, mediocre. i would even call it compared to the historical average. so. so a fragmentation is really not something which is helping in that respect to expect the governments and, and businesses. and for example, your if in the united states to actually take any a notice of, of that warning when they've shown that pretty keen to start to, to, to reassure and to i'm sure that supply chains as they've been doing to so we have some, we have seen signs of, of a fragmentation, but at the same time, i think it's fair to say that we've also seen a lot of resilience. so we are hopeful that that of firms, companies and people will adjust and would, i, would make the potential costs as, as low as possible. if those trends were to, to continue something that looks my santana in very large. i have

a 2020 for the pensions in the middle east, which a past interest be escalating and invite a week, those that have a potential to undermine the most forecasts of issue. but this is one of the downside risk that we do mentioned in our report. most recently we've seen also the developments and in the red sea, which are so far their global impacts has been limited. but we've seen an increase in shipping costs and such. so if, if those developments were to escalate, this would come with a very unfortunate time for the global economy, because again, it would, it could potentially increase the increased costs. it could increase inflation. and again, put us a little back to, to it, to a situation where a fighting inflation would be a lot more difficult. so again, we're hoping that these risks would not materialize,

but they're certainly on our radar. okay, patrick brooks from international administration. thank you very much. for feeling like the into the conflicts with tim, sebastian, the israel. how much small booth briefly to an open courtroom with the hague. productivity is welcome to move into the my guess we stuff about booty and the westbank has the palestinian national initiative. we've never been in such a difficult situation, so how will the more and some kind garza ever be rebuilt? conflict the next on d. w. against

the to the the big house and a school office. a small break from life and the destroy focus on 60 minutes on dw the shannon. the last thing in the searing, emphasizing the award winning offer is available for every language learning gem and has never been something

new to the, to the israel. how must war moved briefly to an open court to be the hague? as the international court of justice hud accusations of israel had committed genocide, gaza palestinians, welcome to move, including my guest, who stuff about booty and the west bank, who heads the policy, the national initiative. what do you want from the court immediately to allow me is to say that there is a mission of genocide and to give as an add on or the store know popular to close violence against all civilians. but he was of special combinations. it is.