the demonstration outside an oil and gas conference last year, i should be not guilty of the face of the funded movie. 3000 euros is convicted like stone, dw, a senior research and from the international monetary fund that helps to the talk to us about the outlook for the world economy. that's the next the can you see is what old car tires have to do with the production? here's a hands on the really indeed the snow on youtube, the

votes, people have to say the that's why we listen to based on the ritual. every weekend on d w, the germany is being left behind as the global economy out performs expectations. that's a conclusion you can draw from the international monetary funds, latest world economic outlook updates. so let's discuss what the i m. s things 20 valuable housing store with petticoat brooks, deputy director of the i'm us research department. thanks a lot for being with us here on the date of your business. if i can just put you on the spot to start with, i'm ask you to sum up in just a sense in swap 2024 is looking like from a global economic perspective. sure. for the global economy,

we see declining inflation and steady growth, which opened the clear a path to a softer landing, soft landing actually. so that's, that's generally good news for the economy as a whole. but let's have a look at how growth is going around the world. let's get a quick look at just a quick math that we put together the strongest grows that we're seeing in terms of how people are going to the young man who's gonna be coming out. so i usually with solid figures for india are in parts of southeast asia, the line with expect 4.6 percent growth from china. although i think badging would prefer that to be somewhere closer to 5 percent. the 2 point one percent production for the usa is stronger than previous forecasts, but look it up. so i guess a gemini is lacking well behind his bed and struggles to get the wheels going again and get his economy up to speeds. just say we're point 5 percent growth forecast for this year. so pleasure to go over books and we'll talk through a few of the figures we've just seen that. but let's start with that number for

germany. it is out performing in comparison with the economy is the i m, f is now less optimistic for the country for this year. why, as we see the different countries having being effected very differently over the past couple of years by the numerous shocks that have hit. so germany into your area more broadly has been very much affected by the large energy shock. the terms of trade shock that we have observed in that us forces affected inflation. is it affected alpha? so we had expected a recovery to start in with. so expecting that in for this year. but compared to our previous forecasts for germany, we've seen just the more sluggish and a restart. the private consumption and sentiment has remained relatively weak. but all of that being said, we do expect the rebound to happen. as

a inflation comes down, real incomes are going to go up. and the brunt of the monetary type thing that has happened is, is also going to materialize. so in the 2nd half of the year, we are certainly expecting growth to, to pick up substantially. did you find any evidence of why domestic consumption hadn't reached this other level? was that you were expecting it to be reaching by this point? well, i think a lot, again has to do with the log decides of these shots that we had seen. i mean, we have seen, of course energy prices coming down, but the impact of that is been takes a while to materialize. and also again, you know, really incomes have been eroded. so i think it's in the stand about that, that people would be a little bit more cautious when they, when they spend, and also compare to the us. um they, i think there's being less of kind of tapping into excess savings in order to, to fund a private assumption. so that i think is another factor that has made

a difference in, in recent quarters. demons of being a bit more frugal with the nit expected. that's one way to put it. and i'm also on that map, we saw sheets guys in positive southeast asia and in the 56 percent in indonesia or in the philippines. something a key role in maintaining global credit. yeah, if we look at the overall growth figure, not the revisions, but the growth, a bulk of that is really driven by, by countries in, in asia. it's india and even china. although the growth rates, they are not as what they used to be in past years, but still very, very robust growth. and as you mentioned, indonesia, philippines and so on. this is a very dynamic part of the world and the underlying trends growth rate. they're just significantly higher than they are in advance to find them use,

but also another emerging market street region. okay, well, let's now look even lied to the picture and talk by the end of the global economy. and all of which of course is contribution to buy these things we've already been talking about with this. just give us a quick snapshots of the state of the world economy a by the i m. s. reckoning global economic growth is expected to be 3 point one percent this year, which is slightly up on the most previous forecast. i did. 2025 is projected to be 3.2 percent centers west just buying in mind that i still found that below the profound demik average that has made name of $3.00 for said label grace. anyway, let's bring back. betcha, color brooks from the i m s, you know, more optimistic for the global for global growth this year in, you know, just a few months ago was changed as we are a bit more optimistic. we have seen a lot of resilience across the board, and we've seen this in economies like us in china, but also in, in

a number of large emerging market economies. and the reasons for this resilience and have to do with some of the consumer spending, but also government spending as well as on the supply side, we've been surprised by the better than expected labor force participation that we see. another way of putting it that may be the scarring from the pin damage is being less than what we had previously anticipated, which is good news. and this is also why we're seeing these, the kind of different developments on inflation and growth. we have a upward revision for growth, but a downward revision for inflation when we exclude, excuse me, examples, extreme cases such as surgeon, tina. yeah, and indeed many central banks do appear to be a winning that war on inflation of war that began joining the pandemic. can reach to speak many places in 2022. so play will headline inflation looks set to fall

from industry to $6.00 in 2023 to 5.8 this year. and to continue to was target level as in 2025 as phone and fostering most regions and previously expected and having a less severe impact on employment. then some have said you kind of just touched on this, particularly the books. but i mean what, what's your assessment of the reason for inflation following up it faster than have been expected? i guess so the, some of the supply side, the positive supply side developments that i mentioned has to stay the role here. as i said, the, the labor force participation coming down, but also the of the supply disruptions that had been a big issue in the past. all of those have also been on my mother rating. of course, monetary policy has also played its role in terms of tightening financing conditions and also through indirect effects of through commodity prices. monetary

policy is really done his job in terms of containing and preventing inflation expectations from rising and kind of contributing to, to an inflation spiral. so i think that has also been a very positive development, and several positive reports does come with a few warnings isn't and one of those from the i m f as in their governments and then central function decline, victory over inflation to early. i mean, what's, what's the danger of that? so indeed, we do see the risks at this stage to be probably balanced in to be to 2 sided. but i think the same can be said about monetary policy, and there is a risk that and we talk about this, that there is a risk of declaring victory to early that. the problem with that would be that then the inflation problem would not be solved. a real incomes are not going to go off, and then the longer it takes to actually solve the problem than the, the,

the more painful it would be to, to do so. so this is why we think it's so important to kind of to finish the job and to bring installation back to target. although of course the risk and the other direction as well. and we talk about those as well. some of those have been very glad to see i'm in the past couple of years of this frank venting of the global economy effectively. what we seem to be getting is in a china and its allies and the west on the other side of the report from i m. s. i mean, it was against that, citing the costs of that fragmentation of the people to participate in that fragmentation was a, it's a small move. what does the i'm a site that as well we have seen unfortunately a rise in trade restriction in the export restrictions that really exploded over the past couple of years. and i think that has been again a sign of the fragmentation which you mentioned. this fragmentation can cover can

affect different areas and we've done a lot of research on this. we've shown that it's impact near a negative impact on f. d, i on, on commodities on a lot more broadly on trade in our estimates of the overall impact for uh, for global output show that these numbers going to be fairly large. they can be up to 7 percent of the gdp in the medium term. although of course, there's a lot of uncertainty around that. and what's important to keep in mind is that this is happening in an environment where global growth is a still quite modest ard mediocre. i would even call it compared to the historical average. so. so a fragmentation is really not something which is helping in that respect to expect that governments and, and businesses. and for example, your if in the united states to actually take any a notice of,

of that warning when they've shown that pretty keen to start to, to, to reassure until i'm sure that supply chains, the stipend a so we have some, we have seen signs of a of a fragmentation, but at the same time, i think it's fair to say that we've also seen a lot of resilience. so we are hopeful that that of firms, companies and people will adjust and would, would make the potential costs as, as low as possible. if those trends were to, to continue something that looks at my son and tell him very large, i have in 2024 the attentions in the middle east. but you pay of interest, be escalating and invite a week. those that have a potential to undermine the volume as forecasts of issue. but this is one of the downside risk that we do mention in our report. most recently we've seen also the development to and in the red sea,

which are so far their global impacts has been limited. but we've seen an increase in shipping costs and such. so if, if those developments were to escalate, this would come with a very unfortunate time for the global economy, because again, it would, it could potentially increase the increased costs. it could increase inflation. and again, put us a little back to, to it, to a situation where a fighting inflation would be a lot more difficult. so again, we're hoping that these risks would not materialize, but they're certainly on our radar. okay, patrick brooks from international ministry fund. thank you very much for feeling like the to the point.

strong opinions, clear position, international perspective. hundreds of thousands of people have taken to the streets in germany are right. and yet the country's biggest bar right party is seen record numbers of members and order supports on to the point we ask in defiance, can turn me can mass protest stop to the point next on d w, the most painful things to watch. your kids suffer today. is day 84 of a runaway natural gas leak above los angeles, that it may take more than a 150000000 pounds of leasing the silent killer. they're up to $30000000.00 abandoned wells around the world. and they're more dangerous than previously thought toils lasting in 30 legacy. in 20 is on the w. shannon with c w. 12

or emphasizing the award winning offer is available worldwide. every language level. learning jasmine has never been since the hundreds of thousands of people have taken to the streets in germany. it's the largest social movement in the country in the decades in cities, towns large and small protestors having demonstrating against the far right to advocate for an open society and to protect their democracy. and the supporters of germany's biggest far right party seem on dante with more people than ever joining the organization. how dangerous is the a f d? what is causing such anger within men's, mainstream society? and how resilience is germany's democracy. on to the point, we ask defiance and germany can mass protests stop the far right

the.