is taking shape around the world and how we can make a difference. knowledge grows through sharing. download it now for the as americans argue amongst themselves about continued aid for ukraine. russia is pressing ahead with it's offensive. now, while it's made some tactical gains and the don bass region that has come at the cost of many lives. and now some russian women have been protesting the deployment of their sons and husbands. by the head of russia's presidential elections next month. why them are approved and has been drumming up support for the war and ukraine using an old soviet slogan, everything for victory. but how far is pretty willing to go? welcome to this week's edition up to the points, the,

a very warm welcome. i'm so glad to introduce our fantastic panel this week. we have christoph front of marshall, a diplomatic correspondent for the german daily tiger should be both sarah, pa go from her program director for international affairs at big for about foundation and indeed, we use our former last guy with correspondent for almost 5 years. emily sherwin a very warm welcome to you all. thanks so much for taking the time. a lot to unpack here today, and i want to start with that speech that we heard from fulton into language. he's making references to this old soviet slogan. he's saying, every thing for the front, everything for victory and emily, i'm wondering for you, what does that tell you about the way that person is thinking about the next stages in the war and ukraine? well, i think, you know, from the getting in this war,

there has been this reference that's being made or this connection being made to the 2nd world war, which is a very emotional topic for russians in russia. it's known as the great patriotic war. almost every family will have some relative who was killed during that war because over 20000000 soviet citizens were killed. so, you know, a huge loss for other russians and that connection is very emotional. and it's one that puts and has been using since the beginning kind of infusing this almost heroic narrative into the current war. and there's this narrative as well now that russia is fighting against ukrainians who the russians have said are nazis but also against the entire west. so i think it's interesting that there's now this reinforcement of that narrative. and it's also interesting to see that by the way of putting this kind of touching his election, why going to that narrative to that very emotional narrative and also to the war? because we've heard that, you know,

potentially the kremlin was actually saying he should, should talk more about social issues, but he's very firmly connecting himself and his political future to this war. yeah, that is fascinating. that, that he's really, as you say, history his back in to this even when it wasn't necessarily what advisors are saying, christoph, um, as emily says, this is a really emotional issue. hearkening back to the soviet union's role in the defeat of the nazis in world war 2 and put in, in that speech was also calling for a social and economic mobilization of russians. and i'm curious of how you think practically, he might be able to do that. well, he certainly has more young men who could surface sold drugs. he certainly has enough money to put skills as for, but to put it into perspective, i mean it's, it's surprising how difficult it is for russia with so many more people so much the guy economies. then ukraine fits the always the are and that's not much farther off as the beginning of the war. so they move, pulled out very quickly,

is the encyclopedia of smells. they are back in the eastern, in the south as the ukrainian offensive, as they struggled as well. as they couldn't gain much territory and in, in the last year. but now putting maybe sees an opening in this election. yeah. which selection the all over the world for 14, as we heard, he is connecting success is war with the his re election. but, but we have also elections in the united states and we see it that's a west struggling to get fuel cream as a financial enter, the military 8 they need to just keeps the front as it is. and so we see ya for a put in election, something go all in and i was a west is a question whether we can sustain our support for ukraine, or is it politically difficult? so really an ex essential question or questions we should say, sarah, i'm curious what your thoughts on this rhetoric that we've had it from pretending that speech and toola i'm so there's a suggest to you that mrs. hymn,

looking also at a new phase in the war when you hear him say things like everything for the front, everything for victory. so i think this is maybe somewhere awesome. 2020 to put in staying with rush has been, was to basically wait out the west and to support for ukraine and in the west. crumbles future elections due to domestic questions about support, a new crane. and i think that he assumes at this point has finally come when we look at the base that we now have in germany, but also in other european countries. and especially in the us. and i think for him this year, if he appears there is decisive as really hopes that they support the point of the crumble and with all the social economic, political and mobilization that he stages within the country. and, and, you know, from schools to, um, to rallies to, to companies and to different cultural events. you really hopes that he can, you know, it's finally when in ukraine and really defeats the west. it's an excellent point

and we are going to come back to that again later in the show 1st, but i think it would be helpful if we can take a look at the situation on the battlefield. i mean, rushes, incremental gains there have come at a really high human cost and a rare show of public this. and we've even seen some russian women protesting for the return of their loved ones from war. they are determined to get their husbands back. these russian wives are link flowers on the grave of the unknown soldier. it's a protest, not a ritual. why not? this is a war. people are being killed, ordinary civilians, men were drafted in the personal mobilization. we can't pretend that they're not dying over there, so i need some new this kind of demonstration puts them at risk for harsh punishments, including imprisonment. rushes prisons are increasingly filled with more dissenting

activists who chose to take a stand against pollutants regime. these pictures paint a different portrait, young russians from the young army movement, standing side by side with their president of see what was huge and you'd be within a short period of time. nearly 5000000 people have already joined to the movement, a manual enough to leave you with the. this is a massive army, a lot of the russia will hold elections in march. but even though the result is a foregone conclusion, the question remains, how much support this really have among the people the? that is the question, and i'd like to put it directly to you, sarah, how much support does probably have among the russian population? i think quite a lot, even though and i think we have to admit that that's what we do have polls and russia, of course, was due to the refreshments and the autocratic system. we have to help them

carefully, however, um i would assess, we have roughly about maybe 20 percent who are strongly supporting war 20 percent, who are really imposing it at the big mass in the middle east. and that's also, i think, something that reflects maybe know how people actually support put, put in so how the system has been working over the last, maybe 10 to 15 years is actually not by politically mobilizing people for putting this cause or for any political cause. but rather about, you know, like, di, paolo's, politicizing them so that they're, you know, like not interested in politics that may take a step back saying, you know, that's not to me. i'm not really interested also because they're partially afraid of for oppression. so i think that is how you know the support for the regime and the support for the government is structured. however, if we got to look at polls, even though we have to have them carefully put in is still the most popular

politician, which is also due to neil that he's all the time on to be doing nice things and helping people. and then of course, you know, reflects in the attitude that people hold to what say yeah, here's a great platform there. of course, you know, if you put it as high as ation is the goal, emily, i'm curious what you think when you look at something like this movement of wives protesting a one thing, their husbands to come back from the front. i mean, i mean, what does this tell us? what are they risking by demonstrating like this, and how much influence do you think they actually have in society and russia? i think that the position that sarah was talking about is exactly why this movement is interesting because these wives, sometimes mothers of, of the soldiers fighting at the front they're, they're the traditional support base for flooding. they're putting, you know, there what would be considered his loyal core. and these are the people who are suddenly saying, actually, you know, this, we're not okay with this and we're going to take to the streets. so that's one reason why it could be one during, i think,

uh for the kremlin. and the other reason is that russia has, you know, a long history of women's movements uh, protest movements during the war in chechnya. there were also um mothers process um for political prisoners when i was uh, covering um, events in moscow and it provides a, it's a, it's a real problem for the kremlin in terms of optics because what are they going to do? they're going to be down these, these women on the street that it is not a good look. and yeah, so i think there, there has been some moves to silence these women. they've been talking about the police visiting them about their rallies being banned about their husbands. on the front, even getting visits from the fs, be having pressure put on them, but they're continuing. and in a way they're coming up against this impressive system that perhaps they hadn't known about before. so this could be something that radicalize is them,

and radicalized as others, but it's still of course, minority, and the russian state is very experienced at, at repressing various protesting defense. yeah. so if there's something of a thorn and put inside a christoph, maybe we can look at the, the other end of that spectrum. we also saw there in that report, the young army movement of, of these patriotic youth. how big are they? how influential are they? are they really supportive of push and of course we don't have them exit picture about. i would say that that's mainly propaganda. it's overblown. i don't think of that. most young russian think it's a pet throughout texting to fighting ukraine. i'm willing to die for i've done boss . and um, so yeah, for let's look for the reference points. i mean, in these 2 years of war, when ever 14 tried to get more soldiers to the front, a young people were doing the pulling with their feet. say we're trying to get out of the country. and as long as the sounds of the middle classes in the big cities

are concerned, it is a political risk football team on scripting at c, a 4 he sold us, you know, from prisons, from ethnic minorities, from provincial towns. so it has not these impact on the national picture, and that is the same with the most of soldiers. and as a reference point, when we hit see orthodontist on one of the $78.00 and the eighty's, that times the movement of the mothers of soldiers contributed. that's as of yet. so did union have 2 ends of war. we and nazi are we have to be costs putting controls, have pictures of the protest in the demonstration. so most of the russians will not at all that they have. so similar movement today. it is fascinating that there's that history there as well. of course, all these political questions are really on the table right now because we are looking ahead to presidential elections in march. and sarah, just, just for our international audience. i mean, when you think about elections in russia, can you paint a picture for us to what degree these are actually free and fair elections and

whether there's any kind of real opposition to a lot of their approach. and they're not praying for at all. and there is no room for real a position in any like presidential or also federal elections. which doesn't mean that these kind of electrons doesn't serve a purpose inside russia. it's been the purpose not to, you know, change the government. or maybe, you know, the fact in the end, for example, the president gets less rhodes and maybe learns about, you know, how he should alter his politics. for example. it's rather about, you know, demonstrating the ability of the system to produce a high level to turn out a high support for poor to him. so it's actually creating legitimacy for the whole system and for the person to put it, which is very important for this double ization of the whole system. so if we look at the electrons, we and i certainly know how it's going to turn out in the end. so put in will, but will, the, will, the regions,

will the federal agencies all the different parts of the state be able to produce these high water turned out as plus result. but it's at least as high as the, you know, boats about putting gates in 2018. and i think these are the things that we should look to. and this illusion of the way you put it on allusion of legitimacy, i think, is really fascinating. emily of for a while there was, there was an anti war candidate running in these presidential elections for us in a den dish. and it didn't. we now know which is 5 weeks to go into the presidential elections. he is out to read off the ballot. can you tell us exactly what happened there and what this says about as far as point. so he's the 2nd anti war candidate that tried to qualify for these selections and is now also off the ballot. so i think it's interesting because what we're seeing these mothers protesting there are also surveys. sarah pointed out that surveys during war time or are difficult, but we're seeing some surveys saying that basically the people,

the amount of people that would support a piece deal at the moment within russia are now. and you know, that's a larger percentage than the people who want to keep fighting. so that's interesting. and that's something that the kremlin definitely knows, you know, they, they carry out their own surveys and put into popularity on all kinds of issues behind the scenes that we never see. so it was interesting that the potential of, of an anti war candidate in bodies and i just didn't, was even on the cards, there was some, seem to be some do the reading over whether he should be um, whether he should qualify or not. now, due to some procedural things to do with signatures that he collected, he's out. but i think there was some consideration within the kremlin of whether they need that kind of vowed blood pressure vowels to release some of this anti worth sentiment. and i guess they decided it would be too much of a risk to have him on the ballot because what if he actually did get you know,

a few percent percentage points unexpectedly. yeah, cruised off. is that, is that the impression to why he's not going to be on the ballot this year? do you think that they found him to be too much of a threat to the right thing? so again, i would say the war is not popular, at least it's not popular to go to war and say a set us up in a center in the prussian population which is empty, the war and not willing to sacrifice of their children. and when that would come into the open or how big percentage is even if they have pressure and threats, if you go and vote for him, the risk must have big. i would agree. so it has been a really fascinating insight into russian society as far as we can see from here in berlin. i do want to take a look at the situation currently in ukraine now when the battle field keys, of course, saying that it is lacking ammunition and that the west hasn't delivered all the a but it has promised. and it is also at the same time hoping that new aid packages

from the you and potentially the united states could help bridge that gap. let's take a look with a shortage of weapons and munitions and soldiers. president zalinski is using slogans of perseverance to motivate troops. on the front lines and wash the flu shots. you have such a difficult task in a clear mission with them to beat back the enemy and win this war. to do so, you pray, not only needs more weapons, but a lot more money to replenish it's empty state coffers. after a lot of wrangling, brussels has finally given the green light of installed the trunk. since we've got 27 heads of state governments to reach an agreement that will allow an additional 50000000000 euros and aid for ukraine to return. but the real question is, what can you create expect from the usa bassinet has introduced

a package worth billions that combines a to ukraine with us border security. but house republicans have already declared their opposition to it if it passes, will it be enough to insure ukrainian survival of crystal 5? is this picking up on something you were touching on earlier? if it passes? will this a to be enough to ensure you crane survival? i'm afraid that this you can change of the course of the war because it's not enough to support from the west. and now we have to make a distinction between financial aid and military aid. as the european union approved that $50000000.00 euro packets and in the end set us enough to keep the government running for the next month. but the more important it's come from the united states military 8. we see, since this is an election in the united states,

we shouldn't expect of that. congress can make up the choice whether they want to support your queen military 8, say what it house, in fact they faxed those white house decides how much military age is. they sent to ukraine and that as much more than europe can do europe, it's not even able to produce a 1000000 auto larry issue. it's with which we need and promised to produce and deliver. and even the military package might come, not to and total end of might be reduced strongly if the notes from when c election at the ends of the year. so if we have not enough financial support, and we have to prospective that the military 8 of the united states might be reduced, come next year on the trump presidency. then i think you create and will be in deep, deep trouble. and it is a real risk that that might change the course of the war. and sarah, you know, if we do see trump elected in the united states, or even a further draft toward this nationalist america from south america,

1st policy among republicans in congress. how x a central do you think this is for ukraine? what, what the consequences be? i think it's quite, it's essential not only because the military is 8 in support of the us for ukraine is really crucial. so if we look at the numbers now the european union states are, you know, for supporting ukraine military are roughly a bit more than us. but in total, altogether this just, you know, gives you an idea of the, of the size. what do you actually does? and what i see here is about in case the u. s. reduces its support for ukraine. will also have a kind of development in europe. you know, where's different starts stuff, say ok without the us. we kind of really enjoy this. you know, it doesn't really make sense supporting ukraine without the ask because we kind of supply enough. so maybe like less and for peace talk. all that's, that's for us to crate into a position where they have to, you know, get into

a position that is really on favorable for them. so i think we really also have to, you know, make sure that the, your pin consensus to support. you can stay strong no matter what actually in the last happens. christ off. do you agree? i where the us goes of the you follows in terms of support for ukraine? yes. that was the situation. what was the last 2? yes. a ton so far it's always waited for us. decision was up to deliver better tanks or whatever it was always he looked what is president by doing? and then i'm trying to to move the drum and a behavior behind time. and when it's now comes to the next year, and what you're up could do was out says leadership of the united states. and that is also an important point. it's not just the financial aid, it's not just military who holds this call, listen pro ukrainian callers and together. that's one guy. so by them, because he has the tory tlc, the united states, as a superpower, can we imagine here any person in europe who could get in these shoes? if the trump is electra chancellor thoughts, no monument, my call was

a lot fun to lie. no body has this, oh sorry t and that would be also a huge loss. so my personal hope, but i'm not sure whether you're able to do that, but my personal hope is said you're up finally says, you know, this is a region of war in europe. we should be able to wins is more what we should be able to enable if you could in the winds as well. it was also for europe in union has economic resources 7 times bigger than russia. so it's a question of organizing our resources and defining said, we want, you cri, you know, to lose. we want to give them what they need not to lose. and we take pride in being able to do this without the united states. not we have pushed into such a situation which we don't like and would like to avoid. we still take pride in finally having this moment that you are upset steps. i will give it how far away we are from that currently. uh, emily. you know, what do you think?

how do you think pretend is viewing all of this when he looks at this in fighting within the united states and also even within the republican party there also, you know, the, the inability of european leaders to, to do what kristof is suggesting. does this play in his favor? absolutely. all of this will be music to his ears. i think, you know, i think initially, presumably the kremlin was or funding there put you in was surprised at the strength of that coalition. there kristof was talking about and i know a lot of people have been saying he's just playing a waiting game at the moment. you know, with a score of attrition, basically waiting for the money to run out of when it comes to the west. and now we have this election year in the us, where trump, you know, is the potential republican candid he's been talking about not supporting, you know, or this america 1st policy anyway and, and also not continuing support for ukraine. and also the world has been looking much more to the middle east with the conflict there. so i think that distraction

is, is something that the kremlin has been waiting for and also, yeah, the money, the money running out. and it's interesting because actually right now there's been a big discussion about tucker costs than we have on his part of the house. yeah, it is this, this fox presenter who's gone rogue and has his own show, the super conservative. he's going to moscow to interview, letting me or put in. so it does seem like even letting me put in his right away into the, the debate going on in the us and kind of back up that are top republican narrative that the, that ukraine can't win any way that, that the financial support won't matter. so they're really using that to their favor, i think. and sarah, just your final thoughts here is, but emily says ringing true, it's any. does it seem like food and can out weight the west to i mean at the moment that seems like uh it will have to be like a legit strategy because if we look at the device that we have in the us but also the, the base that we have in, within the you and within germany, you know,

support is crumbling, people are thinking about, okay, what should we invest to, or should we invest into security and should we invest in to ukraine or should route rather invest them to, i don't know digitalization or modernization of infrastructure, for example. plus, you know, we do see that we have a link between domestic and foreign policy where a lot of political actors and use this of support for ukraine as a leverage. do you know, achieve different things domestically and internally. and i think that is, this is very, you know, dangerous development that really and dangerous support and consensus for supporting your client. so i can talk to you all about this all day, but i'm afraid that's all we have time for. i thank you to our fantastic panel, kristof emily and sarah. i appreciate your insights today and everybody watching at home. thank you for watching and let us know what you thought in the comments. if you're watching on youtube and please join us next time. thanks so much the

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conflicts with tim sebastian, 4 months into the grounds of war and there is no end in sight for the killing of the suffering. how long can is earle continuous ministry campaign as his allies would increasingly, but too many tal opinions of dying? my desk with recent bearing salary. for my head and intelligence service from all sides conflict in 30 minutes on the w to the point. strong opinions, clear position. international perspective. vladimir putin has his eye on the

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you're watching, read up your news life cumberland, ukraine's. when it gets the major of jacob, president of an automated zelinski to police of his talk, my next week, a mando for letting ukraine, florida what's been stuff done with it, the dismissal of dental advisory solution, he suggests the major, the tank of keeps opposed to the conflict on coming up and us ones as well against the major military alteration and drop off the white house as well as pressing it's offensive against from us into the city, with friends, dissolved stuff for the more than a 1000000 guzman showcasing best and focus on balance the votes off to millions take part in the.