[000:00:00;00] the the americans argue amongst themselves about continued aid for ukraine. russia is pressing ahead with it's offensive. now while it's made some tactical gains and the don bass region that has come at the cost of many lives. and now some russian women have been protesting the deployment of their sons and husbands, but ahead of russia's presidential elections next month, waterproofed and has been drumming up support for the war and ukraine using an old soviet slogan. everything for victory. but how far is pretty willing to go? welcome to this week's edition up to the points,

the a very warm welcome. i'm so glad to introduce our fantastic panel this week. we have christoph upfront, marshall, a diplomatic correspondent for the german daily tigris. should be the sarah progress program program director for international affairs at big for about foundation and dw used former la scout correspondent for almost 5 years. emily, sherwin very warm. welcome to you all. thanks so much for taking the time. a lot to unpack here today, and i want to start with that speech that we heard from bruton into light, and which is making references to this old soviet slogan. he's saying, every thing for the front, everything for victory. and emily, i'm wondering for you,

what does that tell you about the way that person is thinking about the next stages in the war and ukraine? well, i think, you know, from the beginning and this for, there's been this reference that's being made or this connection being made to the 2nd world war, which is a very emotional topic for russians in russia. it's known as the great patriotic will for almost every family will have some relative who was killed during that war, because over 20000000 soviet citizens were killed. so you know, a huge loss for other russians and that connection is very emotional. and it's one that puts and has been using since the beginning kind of infusing this almost heroic narrative into the current war. and there's this narrative as well now that russia is fighting against ukrainians who the russians have said are nazis but also against the entire west. so i think it's interesting that there's now this reinforcement of that narrative. and it's also interesting to see that by the way of putting this kind of touching his election,

why going to that narrative to that very emotional narrative and also to the war? because we've heard that, you know, potentially the kremlin was actually saying he should, he should talk more about social issues, but he's very firmly connecting himself and his political future to this war. yeah, that is fascinating. that, that he's really, as you say, hitching his bargain to this. um, even when it wasn't necessarily what advisors are saying, christoph, um, as emily says, this is really emotional issue, hearkening back to the soviet union's role in the defeat of the nazis in world war 2. and put in, in that speech was also calling for a social and economic mobilization of russians. and i'm curious of how you think practically, he might be able to do that. well, he certainly has more young men who could solve a sol address. he certainly has enough money to post use this war, but to put it into perspective, i mean it's, it's surprising how difficult it's for russia with so many more people. so it must

be guy, economies and ukraine, that they always, they are. and that's not much farther off as the beginning of the war. so they move 12 up very quickly and sort of key if now they are back into the eastern, in this house, as the ukrainian offensive, as they struggled as well as they couldn't gain much territory in, in, in the last year. but now 40 maybe sees an opening in this election. yeah. which selection you're all over the world for 14. as we heard, he is connecting success is war with he, his re election, but we have also elections in the united states and we see it that's a west struggling to give you. a crane is a financial. and so the military 8, they need to just keep the front as it is. and so we see um, yeah, for a put in election. if something go all in the west is a question whether we can sustain our support for ukraine, or is it politically difficult? so really an x, a central question or questions we should say, sarah,

i'm curious about your thoughts on this rhetoric that we've had it from pretending that speech and toola i'm. there's a suggest to you that mrs. hymn, looking also at a new phase in the war when you hear him say things like everything for the front. everything for victory. so i think this is maybe somewhere autumn, 2022 pollutants game. where rush has game was to basically wait out the west and to support for ukraine and in the west. crumbles future elections due to domestic questions about support, a new crane. and i think that he assumes that this point has finally come when we look at the base that we now have in germany, but also in other european countries. and especially in the us on, i think for him this year a p appears very decisive as really hopes that they support the point of the crumble with all the social economic, political and mobilization that he stages within the contract. and you know, from school needs to, um, to rallies to,

to companies and to different cultural events. you really hopes that he can you like finally win in ukraine and really defeats the west. it's an excellent point and we are going to come back to that again later in the show up 1st. so i think it would be helpful if we can take a look. i at the situation on the battlefield, i mean rushes, incremental gains there have come at a really high human cost. and a rare show of public the sense we've even seen some russian women protesting for the return of their loved ones from war. they are determined to get their husbands back. these russian wives are link flowers on the grave of the unknown soldier. it's a protest, not a ritual or use. this is a war. people are being killed, ordinary civilians, men were drafted in the personal mobilization. we can't pretend that they're not dying over there,

so i need some new this kind of demonstration puts them at risk for harsh punishments, including imprisonment rushes prisons are increasingly filled with more dissenting activists who chose to take a stand against pollutants. we're seeing these pictures paint a different portrait, young russians from the young army movement standing side by side with their president of see what we usually viewed in a short period of time. nearly 5000000 people have already joined the movement to media 1 of july. the worth of this is a massive army. a lot of the russia will hold elections in march. but even though the result is a foregone conclusion, the question remains, how much support this could really have among the people the? that is the question, and i'd like to put it directly to you. sarah, how much support does put we have among the restroom population? i think quite a lot,

even though and i think we have to admit that that what we do have poles and brush, of course, was due to the refreshments and the autocratic system. we have to handle them carefully however. um, i would assess, we have roughly about maybe 20 percent who are strongly supporting war 20 percent, who are really opposing it at of the big mass in the middle. and that's also, i think, something that reflects maybe you know, how people actually support put, put in so how the system has been working over the last, maybe 10 to 15 years is actually not by politically mobilizing people for pollutants costs or for any political costs. but rather about, you know, like the pals full of sizing them so that they're, you know, like not interested in politics. i may take a step back saying, you know, that's not to me. i'm not really interested also because they're partially afraid of for oppression. so i think that is how you know the support for the regime and

the support for the government is structured. however, if we got to look at polls, even though we have to have them carefully put in, is still the most popular politician, which is awesome to you to know that he's all the time on to be doing nice things and helping people. and then of course, you know, reflects in the attitude that people hold to what say yeah, here's a great platform there. of course, you know, if you put it as high as ation is the goal, emily, i'm curious what you think when you look at something like this movement of wives protesting a one thing, their husbands to come back from the front. i mean, i mean, what does this tell us? what are they risking by demonstrating like this, and how much influence do you think they actually have in society in russia? i think that the port is ation that sarah was talking about is exactly why this movement is interesting because these wives, sometimes mothers of, of the soldiers fighting at the front they're, they're the traditional support base for letting me and put in, you know, there what would be considered his loyal core, and these are the people who are suddenly saying actually, you know, this,

we're not okay with this and we're going to take to the streets. so that's one reason why it could be worrying, i think, for the kremlin. and the other reason is that russia has, you know, a long history of women's movements uh, protest, movements during the war in chechnya. there were also um mothers process um for political prisoners when i was uh, covering the events in moscow. and it provides a, it's a, it's a real problem for the kremlin in terms of optics, because what are they going to do? they're going to be down these, these women on the street that the head is not a good look. and yeah, so i think there, there has been some moves to silence these women. they've been talking about the police visiting them about their rallies being banned about their husbands on the front. even getting visits from the f. s be having pressure put on them. but they're continuing and in

a way they're coming up against this repressive system that perhaps they hadn't known about before. so this could be something that radicalize is them, and radicalized as others, but it's still of course, minority. and the russian state is very experienced at, at repressing various a protesting defense. yeah. so if there's something of a thorn and put inside a christoph, maybe we can look at the, the other end of that spectrum. we also saw there in that report of the young army movement of, of these patriarch youth. how big are they? how influential are they? are they really supportive of food? and of course we don't have an exit picture about. i would say that that's mainly propaganda. it's overblown. i don't think of that most young russian think it's a pet throughout take thing to fight and you create and i'm willing to die for fund boss. and so yeah, for let's look for the reference points. i mean, in these 2 years of war, when ever 14 tribes to get more soldiers to the front, a young people were doing the pulling with their feet,

say we're trying to get out of the country. and as long as the sounds of the middle classes is a big city is concerned, it is a political risk football team on scripting at 3 or 4. he has sold us, you know, from prisons, from ethnic minorities, from provincial towns. so it has not these impact on the national picture, and that is the same with the most of soldiers. and as a reference point, when we had see orthodontist on war of that 78 in the eighty's, at that time, the movement of the mothers of soldiers contributed. that's as of yet. so did union have 2 ends of war. we are not, not see our yet because putting controls have pictures of the protest and the demonstration. so most of the russians will not at all, none that they have. so similar movement today, it is fascinating that there's that history there as well. of course, all these political questions are really on the table right now because we are looking ahead 2 presidential elections in march and sir, just,

just for international audience. and when you think about elections in russia, can you paint a picture for us to what degree these are actually free and fair elections and whether there's any kind of real opposition to a lot of their approach. and they're not praying for at all. and there is no room for real a position in any like presidential or also federal elections. which doesn't mean that these kind of electrons doesn't serve a purpose inside russia. it's been the purpose not to, you know, change the government. or maybe, you know, the fact in the end, for example, the president gets less rhodes and maybe learns about, you know, how he should alter his politics. for example. it's rather about, you know, demonstrating the ability of the system to produce a high level to turn out a high support for poetry. and so it's actually creating legitimacy for the whole system and for the person to put it, which is very important for this double ization of the whole system. so if we look at the electrons,

we and i certainly know how it's going to turn out in the end. so put in will, but will the, will, the regions, will the federal agencies all the different parts of the state be able to produce these high water turn? oh, it's plus result, but it's at least as high as the, you know, boats about putting gates in 2018 and i think these are the things that we should look to. and this illusion of the way you put it on allusion of legitimacy. i think is really fascinating. emily of, for a while there was, there was an anti war candidate running in these presidential elections for us in a den dash. and it didn't. we now know which is 5 weeks to go into the presidential elections. he is out to read off the ballot. can you tell us exactly what happened there? and what this says about us or his point. so he's the 2nd anti war candidate that tried to um, qualify for these selections and is now also off the ballot. so i think it's

interesting because while we're seeing these mothers protesting, there are also surveys. sarah pointed out that surveys during wartime or are difficult, but we're seeing some surveys saying that basically the people, the amount of people that would support a piece deal at the moment within russia or now. um, you know, that's a larger percentage than the people who want to keep fighting. so that's interesting. and that's something that the kremlin definitely knows, you know, they, they carry out their own surveys on, on, put in popularity on all kinds of issues behind the scenes that we never see. so it was interesting that the potential of, of an anti war candidate in bodies and ideas and was even on the cards. there was some, seem to be some during over whether he should be whether he should qualify or not. now, due to some procedural things to do with the signatures that he collected, he's out. but i think there was some consideration within the kremlin of whether they need that kind of val pressure vowels to release some of this anti worth

sentiment. and i guess they decided it would be too much of a risk to have him on the ballot. because what if he actually did get, you know, a few percent of percentage points unexpectedly. yeah, christoph, is that, is that our impression to why he's not going to be on the ballot this year? do think that they found him to be too much of a threat to do? i think so again, i would say the war is not popular, at least it's not popular to go to war and say, i said yeah, southern center is a freshman population which is empty. war and not willing to sacrifice of children and wins that would come into the open. how big percentage is even if they have pressure and threats. if you go and vote for him the response to big i would agree . so this has been a really fascinating insight into russian society as far as we can see from here in berlin. i do want to take a look at the situation currently in ukraine on the battlefield keys, of course,

saying that it is lacking ammunition. and that the west hasn't delivered all the a, but it has promised. and it is also at the same time hoping that new aid packages from the you and potentially the united states a could help bridge that gap. let's take a look. a with a shortage of weapons and munition and soldiers, president zalinski is using slogans of perseverance to motivate troops on the front lines in the washing flu shot. you have such a difficult task in a clear mission with them to beat back the enemy and win this war to do so, you pray, not only needs more weapons, but a lot more money to replenish it's empty state coffers. after a lot of wrangling, brussels has finally given the green light of installed, the trunk sits. we've got 27 heads of state governments to reach an agreement that will allow an additional 50000000000 euros,

an aid for ukraine to return. but the real question is, what can you create expect from the usa? the senate has introduced a package worth billions that combines a to ukraine with us border security. but house republicans have already declared their opposition to it. if it passes, will it be enough to ensure you creating survival? to crystal 5? is this picking up on something you were touching on earlier? if it passed as well as a to be enough to ensure you crane survival. i'm afraid sets this. you can change of the course of the of war because it's not enough support from the west. and now we have to make a distinction between financial aid and military aid. as the european union approved that 50000000 euro packets. and in the end, set us enough to keep the government running for the next month. but the more

important it's come from the united states military 8. we see, since this is an election in the united states, we shouldn't expect of that congress to make up some choice whether they want to support your queen military 8, say what to house. in fact, they fax, those white house decides how much military 8 is they sent to ukraine, and that as much more than europe can do europe, it's not even able to produce a 1000000 auto larry issue with with which we need and promised to produce. and deliver and even the military package might come not to an total end of might be reduced strongly if the donald trump wins the election at the ends of the. yeah. so if we have not enough financial support, and we have to prospective that the military 8 of the united states might be reduced, come next year on the trump presidency. then i think you create and will be in deep, deep trouble. and it is

a real risk that that might change the course of the war. and sarah, you know, if we do see trump elected in the united states, or even a further draft toward this nationalist america from south america, 1st policy among republicans in congress. how x a central do you think this is for ukraine? what would the consequences be? i think it's quite, it's essential, not only because the military is 8 in support of the us for ukraine is really crucial. so if we look at the numbers now the european union states are, you know, for supporting ukraine military are roughly a bit more than us. but in total, altogether this just, you know, gives you an idea of the, of the size. what do you actually does? and what i see here is about in case the u. s. reduces its support for ukraine. will also have a kind of development in europe. you know, where's different starts stuff, say ok without the us. we kind of really enjoy this. you know, it doesn't really make sense supporting ukraine without the ask because we kind of

supply enough. so maybe like lesson for peace talk. all that's, that's for us to crate into a position where they have to, you know, get into a position that is really on favorable for them. so i think we're really also have to, you know, make sure that the, your pin consensus to support. you can stay strong, no matter what actually in the last happens. christ off. do you agree? i where the us goes, the you follow is in terms of support for ukraine? yes, that was the situation. what was the last 2? yes. a tons of sites always waited for us. decision was up to deliver battle tanks or whatever it was always he looked what is president find doing? and then i'm trying to to move the drum and a behavior behind him. and when it's now comes to the next year, and what you're up could do was out says leadership of the united states. and that is also an important point. it's not just the financial aid. it's not just military who holds this coalition, pro ukrainian callers and together. that's one guy. so by them, because he has the tory tlc, the united states, as a superpower,

can we imagine here any person in europe who could get in these shoes? if the trumpets electra chancellor thoughts, no monument, my call was a lot for me to lie. no body has this. oh sorry t. and that would be also a huge loss. so my personal hope, but i'm not sure whether you're able to do that, but by personal hope is said you're up finally phase. you know, this is a region of war in europe. we should be able to wins is more what we should be able to enables you in the winds as well. it was also for europe in the union has economic resources 7 times bigger than russia. so it's a question of organizing our resources and defining said, we want your cri, you know, to lose. we want to give them what they need not to lose. and we take pride in being able to do this without the united states. not we have pushed into such a situation which we don't like and would like to avoid. we still take pride in

finally having this moment that you're upset, steps off. well, given how far away we are from that currently. uh, emily. you know, what do you think? how do you think pretend is viewing all of this when he looks at this in fighting within the united states and also even within the republican party there also, you know, the, the inability of european leaders to, to do what kristof is suggesting. does this play in his favor? absolutely. all of this will be music to his ears. i think, you know, i think initially, presumably the kremlin was or funding there put you in was surprised at the strength of that coalition. there kristof was talking about and i know a lot of people have been saying he's just playing a waiting game at the moment. you know, with this war of attrition, basically waiting for the money to run out of when it comes to the west. and now we have this election year in the us, where trump, you know, is the potential republican candid he's been talking about not supporting, you know, or this america 1st policy anyway and,

and also not continuing support for ukraine. and also the world has been looking much more to the middle east with the conflict there. so i think that distraction is, is something that the kremlin has been waiting for and also, yeah, the money, the money running out. and it's interesting because actually right now there's been a big discussion about tucker carlson who you're boss of the house. yeah, it is this, this fox presenter who's gone rogue and has his own show. so super conservative, he's going to moscow to interview, letting me or put in. so it does seem like even letting me put in his right away into the, the debate going on in the us and kind of back up that are top republican narrative that the, that ukraine can't win any way that, that the financial support won't matter. so they're really using that to their favor, i think. and sarah, just your final thoughts here is, but emily says ringing true, it's any. does it seem like food and can out weight the west to i mean at the moment that seems like uh it will have to be like

a legit strategy because if we look at the device that we have in the us but also the, the base that we have in, within the you and within germany, you know, support is crumbling, people are thinking about, okay, what should we invest to, or should we invest into security and should we invest in to ukraine or should route rather invest them to, i don't know digitalization or modernization of infrastructure, for example. um plus, you know, we do see that we have a link between domestic and foreign policy where a lot of political actors in use this of support for ukraine as a leverage. do you know, achieve different things domestically and internally. and i think that is, this is very, you know, dangerous development that really in dangerous support and consensus for supporting your client. well, i can talk to you all about this all day, but i'm afraid that's all we have time for. i thank you to our fantastic panel christoph, emily and sarah. i appreciate your insights today and everybody watching at home. thank you for watching and let us know what you thought in the comments. if you're

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