is taking shape around the world and how we can make a difference. knowledge grows through sharing. download it now for the 2 years after russia invaded ukraine, its troops are surging on multiple fronts, while a dwindling supply of western weapons and munitions leaves ukraine out, got countries on nato's eastern flags are stepping up their warnings that a victorious russia might come for them next, while the desk of russian opposition waiter alex in nevada, they served as a reminder that vladimir put in those few scruples will the west here to call to step up the fight. today we're asking rushes war on ukraine. no strategy in the west. the

welcome to to the point. it is a pleasure to greet our guest, sabina as the reports for the german broadcaster, deutschland folk. she's an eastern europe expert and has just published a book on what will become of russia. it's also a pleasure to welcome raphael las. he's a policy fellow at the european council on foreign relations. his work focuses on security and defense in the euro, atlantic area, and my esteemed colleague roman gunter, and co also joins us. he's a news editor on t w's, europe and russia, desk, and frequently reports from and on ukraine. so i'd like to start out by asking all of you to share your assessment of the situation in ukraine 2 years after russia launched the attack roman. what's the perspective in ukraine at this moment, or?

well, the situation is very, very critical. i would say we cannot say often enough. so a people were not expecting in ukraine. the west, especially the united states, will just stop supplying weapons. in particular, i see a lot of shells which are very important and this will adjust that this moment um they will, they will probably expecting this to happen after the presidential elections in united states. so they are not prepared for this. and europe, the european union is not fulfilling on its promise to deliver 1000000 a to that or shells to ukraine by march. so those 2 developments are very, very dangerous and we see the results. the results. are you grand losing territory again? and exactly, i wanted to ask you about that. the town of, of disc. uh so uh it just uh, in the past weeks. and that had been very important for ukraine. ukraine held it

for 10 years following russians, evasion of john boss in 2014. what's that done tomorrow in ukraine as well? um, of course is a hard blow for your brand because as you've just mentioned of div, which is a small town very close to the in the ask uh now what was the statistic point uh, ukrainians uh, have built very, very in sophisticated facilities the and were able to hold it for, for any other 10 years. things 2014, when the russian under cover invasion, invasion started in don't boss. i bought the, the ukrainians were just out numbered and out. guns today are enough to you've got and a losing that strategic strategic town. ukraine now lose as the opportunity to advance further. and it opens up to them maybe to, to direction advance felt that some of the, to the west. and it's

a good question. no, we don't know the answer yet. how good are the opinions and kind of defense facilities behind of to you've got because the impression is and this is also something that people in ukraine discussed or are discussing. now, if your brain had enough time to build facilities, the 2nd of the 3rd line of defense behind of div, because the opinion presents savanski has only ordered 2 to dig in, as he said, and to build a new concrete facilities in awesome. so somebody that let me come to you, i know you've just come back from a key of your also an expert on russia. so share your perspective if you would, on both sides. and particularly with regard to russia, it's mobilizing fresh troops, it's manufacturing new weapons. it's pushing now on multiple fronts of is it more resilient than many of us had thought? it seems to be bought. uh the last us enough to have caught all is

a very high. what do you heard um? 16000 soldiers on that. and uh, one die. so quote, military block on a road about this. and suddenly he died into the 2nd. and this was in week and obviously it's not a fact which pleases the kremlin and, and president 14 that somebody is so open a speak. so open the about losses about numbers, but on the other hand, i, i would say of to you've got, it's very serious. that's right. it's a dollars. but they're on success as well for ukrainian military for the army, especially when it comes to crimea. when you look at the soul called

a fleet of a restaurant in a sea of us to poor, for example, the loss is also very high. they lost a tour of the whole fleet and that means that the ukrainians, it's more in the shadow on the sides, but we shouldn't forget the crime. yeah. it's the starting point of very, very of, of, of a lot of attacks of ukraine cities and in these, over the whole country, roughly a during last years grinding war of attrition, a word we were using a lot not on here in this program, but elsewhere was stalemate, is it one still, or are things now tilting in rushes favor? i think changes are happening on the ground. i mean, all pointed to the situation in the blacks, the, the russian black sea feed being largely decimated and unable to, you know, threaten ukraine's gray and exports to odessa. for example,

if things are happening in the air as well, we see a precarious situation for the cleaning as far as the f. 16 deliveries from the west med should happen soon. um, but these things sort of happened and yeah, as all was seeing the intense efforts by ukraine's wisdom support us to get more ad defense missiles to ukraine to protect cities. but also to protect the troops on the front lines. just the fact that we don't see changes and the sort of line of contact between the 2 ground forces doesn't mean that we do have a stand made at the strategic level. and both sides, i think, are working hard to, to identify ways to get out of this. they are made on the ground and to exploit opportunities as they arise out of technology increase more likely to be, to take the advantage. to large extent. i think that depends on the west on us, on decisions that we make in the coming days and weeks and months. we've seen now a couple of western countries signing a security agreements with ukraine out of that could emerge animal men term for

a defense deliveries to ukraine. but it's a political decision ultimately. and the fact that in germany and the bonus tag, just this moment, we're still wrangling around the question of whether or not to deliver taurus, cruise missiles, for example, is one that is extremely frustrating, not only from and a difficult perspective, but shortly, also for ukrainians on the ground on the front line. let's drill a little bit deeper now on what the defeat at of these con tells us about the larger picture we've been calling it a pivotal battle for months here on to the point. and as we've heard, it has fallen. what does that tell us about ukraine's situation? exactly 2 years after proteins launched his attack as the last images of ukrainian soldiers, enough deeds costs, at least for now, they had to abandon it to avoid being surrounded by russian troops. for russia, the capture of the almost entirely destroyed town is an important symbol. it

represents its greatest military success in almost one year. the last was when the ukrainian city of buck moved fell. the decisive factor here, russian air superiority, plus a large contingent of tanks, artillery and soldiers. beautiful, this is an obvious success. i congratulate you. it must continue to the right side of god, such as it is now an extremely difficult situation at several parts of the front line. exactly where russian troops had concentrated maximum reserve, if they are taking advantage of delays and aid to ukraine. and this is a very sensitive matter. there are talerie shortages, there was a need for front line air defense and for a longer range of our weapons and offers boy instead of a 1000000 artillery shells. so landscape troops will initially only receive around half from e u countries and in the us, republicans are blocking urgently needed funds. after the fall above discussed, the president visited the front near the strategically important city of coupons.

there could soon be another russian breakthrough here. 2 years after russia's invasion, how long can you crane hold out and let me put that question directly to roman as well. the answer is simple. as long as you can can hold out for a long time, but the west must deliver at the moment to the west is not getting enough weapons until the ukrainians have to retreat. and if this tendency wouldn't, will not change in the coming weeks and months, then we can expect more traits from ukrainian troops, though you cannot just throw in more and more. so we'll just, ukraine doesn't have enough someone just, this is a huge problem and we'll go as ation a new bill is not way new, great empowerment. the but the presence of lensky is very cautious. and with that, because the morning ukraine is also slightly changing. but there are not enough men

. so it is a very tense situation for ukraine is about to answer your question once again. and it's, it's, it's for the west to deliver weapons without less than by pennsylvania and kind will not be able to hold territory. raphael, you mentioned, of course, the same point in the report that we just saw. a president's soleski russo landscape refers directly to, to ukraine's need for front line air defenses. and indeed, the russians took of these gun not least because they had the aerial advantage. where are those gonna come from? who, who are the key partners who could provide what you create needs right now, that is a good question and their defense, i think from the draft respect of consist of, of 2 parts. one is ground based there, defends and we see some capabilities having been supplied to you trying to be trained. also, primarily i'm task with protecting civilian infrastructure and population centers.

what your credit is lacking as mobile ad defends on the front lines and then it's, you know, get parts to dump sort of anti aircraft tanks that are very effective that were provided by germany early on in the war. but there too few when number i'm the 2nd leg of your credit or defends will be the 16 that us with and allowing new claims as false um to replace the losses and mig across that they were using since the war began. but it is not at the scale or at the speed of relevance to the degree that ukraine's f also be able to push back rushes. f was from using these kinds of fly bombs that happened pummeling of these gun and other places on the front line. what is required as a more modern version of this and the more i'm sustained effort at an increasing the scale of less than support in, in the out of funds where i'm both on the ground but also in the year. so the western support at the moment is not increasing. sabina, it is decreasing, or at least suspended, particularly in the us presidents savanski fluid in germany recently to make his

case. and in fact, germany has now become the 2nd biggest donor of military 8. and as a major donor of humanitarian aid, as well can germany make up for the gaps that the u. s. is leaving currently. so i think it's difficult to, but what in difference between the beginning of the war and now is that there is a bill to fill at least a pump the of this gap. and what i saw when i was in key if was how frightening it this when you know that the systems aren't able to shut down or drones or rockets and to sit in the cellar and to wait and not to know whether it's over or not. and this interrupt every day and several times. and this was really in

the capital of ukraine and then other cities, of course, the, the very, very feeling of war, the war isn't over what, what some might think. and in europe and germany as well. we are in the middle of this war and to this war has at least sweep benefits and one better for you to put foot. so quote is valid, but if failed, the concept see liverts in, in different cities which disrupt the everyday life. very much of people and that fee have to consider and when we count on give a good numbers, how many rockets or drones are shut down or bad or shut down? this is really frightening because if it goes are fuel and fewer. and this speaks of the lack of munition and this is really serious. let me ask you briefly if you

would, you said, certainly germany has heard the call. interestingly enough, a recent survey shows that german public opinion is changing. for a long time. there was a lag between what the leadership wanted to do or last schultz with his famous speech that site vendor right after the russian invasion, where he said, we have to step up, public opinion long lagging behind. but it now looks to be that the majority of german say, the situation is serious. we must act. uh, this is essentially a wake up call. we'll that change how rapidly the government responds. no, i think this is really a move we see. and this is very important because it's of the hesitation of the government, of the lead us of, of different punches in the corners. and they responded every time on a certain pacific, a pet sophistic knew it was in the members. and now i would say it isn't over,

but it's not a strong editor used to be. and now the government is an illiterate for you. then if it has been bought, we are in the middle of all the just as a beginning of the discussion with us to spend money for a full veterans for your fame, for own purpose or for social needs. and, and coming with this uh to, to discuss the question whether it's necessary to think about a draft to, to a strength and openness, where at least the needs of 20000 soldiers and a re, this question is really very sensitive. and i would think that as a long way to go room and public opinion, of course,

to shifting not only in germany, but also in the united states. we're seeing particularly among republican voters. and there is a presidential election coming up in the us. so their opinion is very important. a rising on willingness to support ukraine saying that us money should be spent at home to secure the u. s. southern border. in the face of that, and with republican front runner, donald trump saying that he could and the ukraine war in a day, presumably by negotiating with slide them, they're putting, would you say that presidents to lensky is coming under increasing pressure to go to the negotiation table? as well, of course this pressure has been growing for some time now and you're absolutely right. i was at the munich security conference just a few days ago. and i spoke to the western intellectual and analytic yvonne

christophe who just throats and ask her about that, saying that now wars are sometimes decided to develop books and they'll just on the battlefield. and he said that the more just changing, just if, as you've mentioned in the united states in europe, i knew crime himself was there on no more ukrainians and thinking positively that both negotiations negotiations in general. there are still about 90 percent of ukrainians who are not ready to see territories. but what the cost of said, i think is very important. he says we might and might suggest to a point to interest in, in, in, in the coming months this year. probably after presidential elections in russia when rush, i would be ready to negotiate some kind of a cease fire. and he says that that is only would only make sense to talk about it if, if uh, if nato would be ready to, to accept you crying on

a fast track. so that you kind would have security guarantees. otherwise, there is a great danger that the rush i would seek ukraine to become some kind of a how this time. so no man's land, you know, a no rule of law and nothing. this is, this is what motors him and not content or disagree. very interesting, very briefly, if you would raphael of negotiations, even the chairman of the munich security conference prior to the conference, talked about the need for a negotiated solution. is this the time? i mean, if you look at the sort of universe of cases of wars around the world, 12 times most was end of the negotiating settlement. but the single sheet and settlements usually reflect the balance of forces on the ground. and i think no side at the moment, faces incentives to really make a compromises. i don't quite agree with roman's point on the, on the russian presidential election. i think the us presidential election has probably the more decisive factor in both sides attitudes. 20 goal. she, asians. but there's efforts, of course, by all sides. um,

i'm on the coordination of support us of ukraine, ukraine's government incorporation with this, with government organizing a peace conference, various delegations from african states, from brazil, from china, trying to bring the slides together. these haven't produced anything meaningful yet . and so i think over the close of the but probably be on the next year. what was the movement on that front? as western politicians were debating in unit one piece of news temporarily to silence the noisy hall, the death of opposition leader. i'll explain the volume the and his widows. defiance call for justice served as a reminder of pertains perfidy and the consequences of western equivocation. or after alexia of all of these death in a penal colony, russian police are taking action against people who want to pay tribute to the pretend. critics, even if just with flowers mountain,

it never seems that it is now worse than in stallings times. people to me in the most to much them. so it is important to live in a democratic state in the 21st century and not in a dictatorship. what is this is what pollutants russia looks like. here he has shown what soldiers from the forces fighting and ukraine. he's using all his power to ensure support for his vision of a great russian empire defending itself against the hostile west. whoever criticizes the war risks, the rest. whoever like bodies, not the listing has the slightest chance of success and the so called presidential election is not allowed to stand. and now, nope, all of these death. his widow has accused putin of murdering her husband and announced that you are able to continue the work of alex say not only continue to fight for our country, let me just ask you to support me on this diag out those some really valid these

legacy and pollutants power will the resistance and your sabina eulley and the volume they received the news of her husband's death at the munich security conference. a number of experts have suggested that that was no coincidence. you've called russia a mafia state. would you say that this killing was calculated the way a mafia don might do it to achieve a purpose? i'm sure it was calculated, and this speaks about putting citizen towards the upper to us easy opposition. and this task for the opposition to fight this regime is super sure, which it's, it's, uh, i would say it's unbelievable and it's on for, for both if and so will. because this is really a mafia state of what to what is not the state and mafia side by side,

but it's 11 they are the, the old friends of 14, the don't the power and the government. the most important um, and you know, what to what to say the, the most important parts of a economy. what, when it comes to the private armies, everything is in their hand and to fight such a very strong opponent is almost impossible. roman, what would you say that the timing and nature of nevada, these deaths tell us about put into the frame of mind and about putting the intentions as well. the timing was definitely to a signal to the west before the munich security conference. look, you want to negotiate with me. we can negotiate about the ukranian defeat. that's

all. so if you want to show strength, i can show you my strength. so i think it was a very clear message. and i think that there was to receive the message, but what we have to wait for for more, more concrete steps as a response and we'll just sanctions. but the best response on this is what was the morning munich would be to give more weapons through your crime. and as we have talking about the war, we've just had some remarks by the phone. martian says that the medium exhibit for said that the restaurant wants key if they are growing and capital. and so that is ones address a very important lexi port i still held by ukraine. i think the signals coming from moscow are very clear they will, will continue. so the west needs to bear that in mind. and raphael, that is exactly what the nato member countries on the eastern flank of the alliance are saying, most especially developed countries, one of whose foreign ministers lands bag is recently said russians are all in. and

if you create and falls protein will not stop, he is coming for us. would you agree and has the west got that message? does it have a strategy? i think what was slowly moving towards getting it and, and drawing the right contusions from this chapters that impact as presenting to us that has a monitor dimension, certainly, and nato is working on that. but it also has a political dimension of reaffirming level of democracy in europe. and it has an economic that mention about reason making supply chains more resilient. about looking also to china at the join challenge that russia and china present to us europeans and the brought up political best. sabina, the clock is ticking. has the message gotten through one word? i hope so, and thank you so much to all of you for being with us. thank you very much to you, roman for joining us virtually. and thanks to all of our viewers. so you said the,

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