well, instead he started looking elsewhere for support. so is that enough to give him what he wants? or does he have more dangerous options? the valuable thing has been openly aggressive and ukraine for more than 2 years now. but his for both concourse is not confined to you. he's also clearly exhibiting influence on other fama. so if you have states as well, for instance, in georgia and model of georgia, has foster contribution legislation that labels non governmental organizations as foreign agents leading to be so heavy. but that the legislation is being regarded as a copy of a similar russian law and model of all which is due to lords presidential elections and a referendum on joining the e. u. later this year,

russia is being accused of targeting the public space by settings this information mean by us. that trivial st. anthony blinking is considering allowing ukraine to use american veterans on russian territory. so down to the point we are discussing instructions about the fall into and spreading from ukraine to georgia and model the hello and welcome to, to the point on each of how do you sign in here in berlin? and today, my guess the gustavo dress of a, he is a senior policy fellow on military expert with the europe and council on foreign relations, e c, f r i stuff the all fucking bun. she is on a list for eastern europe, the german council on farms and h. e. d g,

a. be joining us via skype from parcel v. have danny shows. she is, you made the folder, i dw a very warm welcome to you all good stuff. um, the german foreign minister was in ukraine recently and she said that the situation has wilson drastically. now we know she had planned to go to hockey if she could not because of security reasons. how is the situation now in your plan has to be more than 2 years while ukraine is of a very difficult time in small um, it has been difficult to really be difficult. uh, part of that was the delay in 8, both from europe and us. um, it's widely known that the us were late, but also european munition industry to use the the late the problem is the ukraine on forces hot lost a lot of personal because of this delayed losing soldiers means losing skills,

losing people that have experience losing people that have a noise and what they're doing, it's very hard to retrain people to something. um, so that is something that has damage their come with power quite considerably. the 2nd thing is that the russian army has compared to with the russian army. that housing waited in 2020 to grow and to roughly twice the size in terms of man, even more, but in terms of material to crow, twice the size, but on ukraine inside you have not even the losses replaced by wisdom equipment. uh the last is that a court since 20? 22 also you have a large problem of the fact old solicit sense of equipment. you can find i'm a nation full particularly of car sip. so 1st the armies funds or defense me. so i

was by that effects old, a lot of ukraine in artillery tank, forest making eyes vehicles where you don't get spare parts or you don't get, i'm a nation for it. and that has led to ukraine's practical combat power decreasing, and russian compet power increasing and russia now with the some offensive trying to make gains on that for you. cream is clearly not in a good spot on the stuff yet technically silence q 5 yet. um, as president ended on the 20th of me, but of course he will continue being the president because of motion law. now his critique said, but this is non constitutional. how of people looking at best and ukraine? i mean, it's a fair question, and if has been discussed about, especially last year and do the critique, most of it comes from russia, russian allies. it, there was also an idea launched by the us last year,

but it was quickly dismissed as well. and the use pass no support and play and it's not called in collections that i'm multiple reasons why elections would not be appropriate to the current time. for us default, your credit is not able to ensure a safe and fair and secure elections. more than 20 percent of your current territories occupied at the moment. the for people cannot vote and the status orders, it would be very difficult to ensure the people on them control line i able to low due to increased has as well increased security concerns. then your credit has around $8000000.00 references a all around the world, ensuring their presence and devoting stations would be as well, very complicated. and this is not just sticking with the night financial concerns. where would the money come from for elections incentives to has made it very clear that the mind coming formula to the equipment and for continuing the work cannot be used to for elections. and additionally, a group of opposition passed to so,

so agree that the elections would not be now appropriate. because this would also mean electro competition. it would means, as far as this file, all the efforts would cause should go for the war. and i have to say, i mean, they're also constitutionally pen would need to change this constitution to hold elections. but at the same time also, it wouldn't be important. it's not to do go not to have elections at the moment. so we have precedence where the come to can continue the dissertation before before some sort of a piece comes in place. and the last november around is you percent of people in ukraine support to that the idea of waiting group, the elections. so of course it is difficult, extremely difficult to hold elections at this point because of practical reasons. the or the reason i ask you this question is because since the beginning of the war, we're talking about democracy versus an authoritative team. and now if someone's continues to be the president without being elected again, would that not fuel,

within a propaganda machine, as you said it in the beginning, also that the predict mostly comes from joshua. i mean, what, we will not for the, for to the stuff. again, that is whom you know, i think we should not look at what the russian propaganda is. congress. and now we have the 2 mentors and why you created, ken know, told elections. and also i believe us as european partners, which is especially on your plan would not be right just at the moment due to the reasons i mentioned. and i mean, i think, sure what can be done this to dismiss this arguments between the states where we know how the president was elected in russell a racist and democratic concerns about your grade. i think it was, i've been taking the students, this is also, i don't know. what does it say about us and our democracy? i was a mind on none of the opposition parties, ones to run against the president who is commander in chief in the war situation. because if you start to criticize the president and then also for you trained

a lot of what looking at to try and going into the gulf coast, there are some of the things that after the war can be politicized. but now you would you come to cons. have a really good debate about all this stuff. so in so as old content as all possible content as those politicians will think they might challenge to lead ski at a later point. no one wants that this will come off to the wall because now they, they would just lose out and, and do more harm to them in their country than andrew. and that the 1st, the train from all the situation was by you have and no position that wants to run their election against a, a sitting president. i mean, in bella rows of course, they also say she wants to run a fair election against the sitting president of a. but this, this is totally different than ukraine, isn't as we should. we should also talk to the opposition and, and take them seriously on that. right. let's go to tell you quickly. she's been

waiting for us patiently. time for your patients day. now, ever since the beginning of the war now being concerns that ukraine would not be lost, country rev putting would try to have instruments. and there been talks about countries like mando by now dennis, just how one of the is a country like mazda above, which does not even share border with russia to fulton's encroachment. so there been concerns much longer than since the beginning of rushes were on new brain. and that's because putting ensures that mold over worries about this kind of thing. you know, it has a piece of territory trans nature which is about 4000 square kilometers and about 400000 people, which has remained loyal to moscow since the soviet union crumbling. so for more than 30 years. and this is a tiny area. um sometimes even asks for protection. now remember when it says that he needs to protect russian speakers,

this is the kind of language that we heard before. he and dated don boss in 2014 and took crania, he said these kind of things again in 2022 before he went into ukraine. it's sort of language that people in the countries near to russia understand that this could signal that putting wants to go into this territory. he would absolutely love to create a land core door between russia and trends. nice through it because as you mentioned, he doesn't have a border with mold over, but this is something that the country has has always lived with since that since it's re independence. and that's why the pro e u president. my assigned to has very much strengthened ties with brussels. now minova is neutral by constitution. so there's not a lot of talk about joining nato, of course. but she just this week signed a defense agreement with the european union and, and she would also have done this earlier by laterally with friends. and this is going to help security cooperation with the european union in areas like cyber security. uh, uh, counter terrorism. um, even border management,

so this is something that will go but has always known as vulnerable and it's doing what it's can in this, you know, very uh, very vulnerable, a neighborhood to, to strengthen itself to become more resilience. thanks, jerry. now, mazda of our does not share the border with joshua, but george, out of the country, has approved a contribution to farm agent law that has spot weeks of moscow this under the new law. so it was a psyche, organizations, and media that receive more than 20 percent of their revenues from abroad. really be obliged to register as organizations subbing the interest off of form and follow people into please the are continuing to protest without rest. even after the georgian parliament passed the controversial law, classifying certain organizations as foreign agents, opponents. so calling the new regulation russian law from now on, according to russian president n g o's,

an independent media must disclose their financial support from abroad. the here today as the basic one, the resistor, i'm working. so it's both researchers, one of the non governmental organizations organization and now the to day of the off the wall i am calling agents. your understanding here is a foreign good debate about the law is revealing the division in georgia and society. young people especially are afraid of pollutants growing influence. and that their country might turn away from the west. will george and it be the next day to fall back into rushes here in on the stuff you invited georgia, feel the need to bring and such an anti democratic though this to this very

important question because everyone asks this to know. and in fact, george and jim didn't have to do it. they could have preserved the power without bringing in this law. and i would say that is really a fear coming from the leadership of the part of the day. i losing the power at the slaw, whether it's labeled the suppression law and very much inspired by russian legislation doesn't come on. russian dumont, it's really comes from the judge and the district from georgia. dream in the attempt to preserve the power over the country. and the fewest where the desk and the company in collections, georgia, judge and jim was not get the majority to am. however, i mean, i believe that the part to underestimate, to judge and population and this is not so depressive resume. this is the come to full of people who want to preserve the democracy and people will be on the street . so i mean, i think it was really an under estimation from the,

from the ruling 5 to they have been in power already for quite a long time. and this report has been declining of over the past years and talked in 3 months. pacific does a very corrupt power to that, that trying to maintain the grief on the power and really sliding georgia in to look up the project and undemocratic vision. but that people are resilient and the content. and i think this was maybe i, it's very hard to say which was the expectation from the judge and dream. and what was the motivation behind this because they could have, they have been getting the elections before. so i think that could have been of a tool supply to maintain the power. and to me this step is also shows that they at the to good to for, for less than to be on this to the georgia dream. i, i honestly, i mean, i see it's more optimistic, but i really saying that to georgia and population a little bit stronger than this. let's look at the effects of flossing this legislation. while it's not just the process of getting the

e u has one that the adoption of this law behind for chances of joining the blog, georgia has gone to the states the status at the moment. and then you also have us saying that the georgia will become an ad was read rather than a partner. how is the georgian government reacting to all of this? and you also have nato. i should point out. also speaking out against this, and georgia has traditionally very much wanted to become a member of nato. so you really got all the major organizations um, plus the us putting pressure on, on uh, the georgia dream basically. but it has seemed to backfire so far. you know, they haven't back down on this. and in fact they're saying, look, look at all the undue influence that for, and the, you know, for an asters want to put on georgia. this is why we need this rule. so it really hasn't worked so far. of course the law has not been implemented yet, so that there's still time perhaps for these kind of levers to work. but at the moment they don't show any sign of backing down. at the same time you,

you asked about about you membership and they have not also backed away from wanting to become a member of the european union. so that may be where the pressure can still be applied. at the same time, the you is, is so angry about this, but it's talking about rolling back some of the privileges that georgia has had, like visa, free travel, for example. and there are some countries that are saying there shouldn't be sanctions put on georgia. so this is really a long way from the joy where the country was, you know, introduced as a candidate and an e foreign ministers are going to talk about this next week. so security back fighting, talking about, you know, you likes to be seen as this big family, that has the was opinions and it wants to include as many countries as possible. but by doing so isn't you weakening it so now if you have the examples of slovakia, you have the example of hungry ret. we realize that it did become counter productive and now it's not just georgia. e was also thinking about serbia,

about montenegro, about dania. what do you make of it? what was the thing is most enlargement. uh, the, or, or a large one for say the problem is, you need to be tough on the democratic style, the freedom of press independence of the judiciary. because if you let them slide on, not what's happened in hungary, then this opens off for this kind of clause, the author retiree and rule that then destroys a policy making a new uh and, and that is why, for example, on georgia of course, the was no strict uh uh, it's not uh, a just sort of issue of taste, but the problem is the georgia dream has been criticized for states capture for rolling back traditional reform for um, for nepotism uh for hindering the fight against corruption over the

past years. um and um, basically now all these grievances break into the open monday when they try to call tale or criminalize, those organizations that still report on, on all these misdeeds. and that is, that is of course the issue where you can say no, if you, if you're going down that road um the, the, the door to the use coast on the other hand, receive other countries that knock on the used doors that have made remarkable progress. on this and that have reformed and you see country side the you that have done all those they have, like i'm 3 that actually have, you know, enacted was like this and kicked out of the influence positive influence from other countries. so george also sees that example and it's critical to so the issue inside and outside of this will be more principle list of our democratic values and,

and basic freedoms. and that, that is your respective of accession and not. um it is, it is a shame that our article 7 procedures are so cumbersome. and then now of course that hungary, fines allies to protect itself within to you. um. but on the other end, if you look, for example, look at the train and the progress of ukrainian reforms over the years. they rightfully knock on the door and say, look guys, be, i mean, the all bets on democratic stands is much better than hungry itself. why, why shouldn't a so i would, i would separate the issue of enlargement. um, uh, with that is it just in a very i think most of the environment has become part of transactional and hungry is trying to obtain deal. so no, no, to block accessed and then i also think it's would be the same with georgia hungry is loved being very strongly for georgia in terms of the you accessing. and this

can be used to know to offer. now accessing talks for your credit and unload of as a bargain talking and i think here it's really important. what was that was how much of the previous to that you use to maintain. so it's norm sunbelt us and this, but it's transactional environment that's relevant. going on all of the very poisoned offer. i mean the hunger is one serbia and then it won't charge it in because of their damage, the deficits and they, they're not the only ones the austrians also pushing for. so it'd be a because survey on, on the, which would be a road block for the you to be strict on financial controls on fight against aspire niosh on russian in ones on corruption laws. the whole, the new prosecutor reserve is on financial tribes. that is a horrible scenario for victor oil, but it also on the mines to kind of usually the policy making into the n o a practice lava. and they want to have a rescue against that and the see the georgia dream or what judge are or,

and unreformed balls and you are are a kind of risk you service and allies to, to dilute onto corruption policies within you. and so, so, so again, yeah, it's, it, it is about democratic standards and they should govern who we take and then whom not. right it's, it's a, it's a long debate about what's happening into you. but let's come back to ukraine because got and cleared up is that put in maybe getting the upper hand and you came last lead. you do the rest in adequate support. analysts say ukraine hasn't faced such a serial military challenge since the early days of the war. the situation has prompted a new plan that outlined specific steps for ukraine's membership in nato as early as july 2028. the paper suggests that ukraine could become a member of the western military alliance by 2028 regardless of whether the war has ended or not. in the meantime, allied countries are called on to increase their aid to 0.25 percent of their g. d

. p. air defense for western ukrainian border regions could also be managed from new tow territory. and until the ukraine joins and 8 hope all types of conventional weapons could be supplied the stipulation that they not be used against targets and russia should be dropped. what are the chances of this new draft paper being implemented during the 28th? isn't that too late? that was from a position of booker as 2008. it's much to late, but the problem is now the boys already there. um. well looking at sweden and finland on how difficult task force i think it is a bit loose. if to propose exact dates for membership, because this is a negotiation process amongst totally to allied countries and that will be

difficult with the respect of some countries on the other hand, or you see a huge inconsistency in policies that especially looking back at the billing is last year, when you're trained, talked one to a, at least a political commitment to an invitation. if conditions arise, then that those countries who are either formally or informally in favor of a negotiated settlement with russia do not support or are very hesitant on ukraine's nature. membership because if you have a kind of stall, made the agreement, we had these in the past and none of them work. neither means one norman's cool nor any other agreement. if you want to have the war really, to end a, you need a security net for ukraine to a single to most go nothing further. and that would be natural membership. the most

practical and the most actually effective would be natural membership. so here, the worst is all totally inconsistent. and of course, this paper pokes into, into the political inconsistency. we have 2 minutes left. the email we know that russia has military has big andrias involving tactical nuclear weapons. really that have an effect on this decision on this proposal. rather, it didn't rush. it has, has nuclear tests, you know, nuclear exercises. we should say all the time. the important thing is that nato consistently says that they have not seen russia making a true change in its, its military pastor when it comes to nuclear weapons. and that way, that's what would be the key for, for real concern about whether russia intended to use nuclear weapons put and has threatened it many times and has not made those moves that would indicate to the alliance. but it needed to really worry about a russian nuclear attack. thank you. on

a separate last question. now you're clearly seeing here, there are 2 different strategies use um does this military method in ukraine, there's a non military methods, hybrid metro's as they're called in other countries, georgia. armando, which strategy according to you, is working better for to everything. so when it's not a comparison, that's the issue about special all of the stuff that just comes together and this, what question to tear. we shouldn't have to coordinate the military attacks by the hybrid to text, including in the you contest and the candidates which are the same as a package that i put in is having as a strategy together. that's all the time we have. what do you think about 3rd, which strategy is working better? hope with that. if you're watching us on youtube to let us know your thoughts, we really think your comments. thanks for watching. the

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