is not for me, not for my children without civil rights and with no prospect. but what can we do in david shudder. stats oldest, put on d w. the nato is celebrating its 75th anniversary in the shadow of unprecedented challenges . just as a lion's leaders were gathering, russia bombarded a pediatric hospital in chairs, chilling and wounding dozens of children and profiting ukraine's president to renew his please. for additional care defense systems. whether such support will be forthcoming. even if donald trump for to return to the white house, is just one of the doubts worrying nato members. the alliance is bigger than ever. does that make it stronger or potentially more divided? can 32 members states maintain that united front against oppressors?

are question today, nato, at 75 more allies, less unity, the hello and welcome to to the point. it is a great pleasure to greet our guests. mike is quite leads the department of defense economics at the military academy of this with federal institute of technology. great to have you with us. raphael us is a policy fellow at the european council on foreign relations is work focuses on security and defense in the euro lab, tech area, and christy wright. she joins us from washington. she is a member of the governing council of the german council on foreign relations formerly led the prestige just yet the stone in the 4th policy institute and is now

with the international center for defense security. great to have you with us, christy, as well. and marcus, if i may begin with you, uh, that attack that we just saw in, in the pictures its uh, prompted an outcry, of course, amongst the alliance members. it also prompted denial from russian president vladimir pushing. the question is whether the newest pledges of air defense support for ukraine, whether ukraine can really count on that going forward. the same thing is that this has become the new normal russian war crimes happen every day. and this is just a very stock example of what happens every day. so would you crane really needs is ad defense because it has to little systems at this time to defend both the front and the cities. and so i think it's a rights step in the right direction. um to,

to allocate more patriot systems to prevent these types of war crimes from happening again. can you cry and be sure it's going to get them know? well, i think the pictures were pretty harsh and pretty member of, of what russia is capable of. and the dresser has absolutely no scruples to, to act against international humanitarian law. so what, what other option is there, the rest of those i'm mentioned, russia denied responsibility for the attack on the children's hospital. how sizable is it that this was not intentional? and is it possible that rushing even timed this attack to coincide with the beginning of the nato summit? i think there's sufficient evidence now as that was another case of russian well, crimes. including going back to girls need to a level and to the fullest, get amazing since february 2022 that that this was a russian attack and that it was targeted and timed to deliver a specific message to underlined that nato is somewhat important. um, uh, but uh,

if you look at russian convocation then, but on the one side you have the lines of denials. on the other hand, you have a celebrations of this new very atrocious attack. you know that the russian mission to the united nations in new york recently tearing the security council, put chicken key if on the, on the menu to celebrate the most recent meeting of the console of the suspicious standard russian practice and it christie, you wrote this week as the leaders were gathering in washington on x, that ukraine is absolutely critically important to europeans, security are nato and europe doing enough to ensure that ukraine doesn't succumb to the russian attacks? or does that approach that they're taking so far add up to too little, too late. the nato and the allies are currently doing enough for your trying to be able to,

to defend itself and prevent any major further advances of russia. but as we are seeing, they are not doing enough to enable you're trying to win the war and they are not doing enough to secure sufficient a protection off of the print in skill. yes. so the limits about the allies are think on the assistance or have you patrick, good costs to classes. i talked to somebody so i think we saw a number of practical steps that are positive uh for you. praying uh some further promises of assistance, assurances of the long term commitments of mate. so think nice. so he's very clearly tying it so i'm trying to get it to the end. it's oh, sure. the to the fights of the training this war. but still, i would say we are talking about cost steps and we are going to take

a look at some of those measures that were agreed on and at nato unity as a whole with $2.00 new nordic members. the alliance is now bigger than ever before stretching from the atlantic ocean to the baltic sea. but does that also mean it's stronger? opening the summit, us president joe biden insisted that the allies are united, but that unity could be short lived if donald trump wins the upcoming us election. 90000 soldiers, nate who wants to demonstrate that strength with the law just maneuver since the end of the cold war, a response to the russian invasion of ukraine. the us remains the cornerstone of nature with a total of $1350000.00 troops. it provides more than 40 percent of all native faucet. it also acts as a major financial after investing more in defense than all of the allies combined. this year it's expected that 9 of 30 to nature countries won't even meet the target

2 percent g d p contribution, including spain and belgium. this highlights how different the ally, members to see if the threats of food should highland leads with a contribution of move in full percent and the baltic states also investing heavily into the nature of budgets. the alliance's team is crucial for the protection of the eastern flank, money, weapons personnel, according to the latest estimates, the current $30.00 to nature states will spend a total of around $1.00 trillion bureaus on defense this year. a record amounts, but is this enough? how strong is nature's defense? how great is it determined potential? let me pass that question straight over to you. rafael. how great is the potential of nato to really ward off the kind of aggression that we did just see?

natal has become larger. it's now another lines of $32.00 with sweet and joining already of us here. um, it's also becoming stronger and the decisions that the heads of state and government took at washington are moving in the right direction, i think. but the requirements also increasing significantly in some respects, and that requires the continued move forward to meet the demands that the domain specific regional specific defense plans. unlike anything we've seen since the end of the cold war being translated into forces, capabilities, infrastructure and stop pulse and, and that's where the rubber hits the road. you say it's stronger, but the fact is, as we heard from christie, is that what the alliance is doing now? are the members of the lines in a to itself is not a party to that conflict. is what, what's being done right now is not enough to ensure that ukraine would win this for, would you say to europe, and they don't have been too intimidated by putting those threats. but there are

essentially a central approach is basically too little, too late. to some extent, i would agree with you there again to nato is a, is a consensus organization. a nato didn't organize ukraine support for the longest time, only moving in that direction so far it depended on the leadership of the united states and to a large extent, also on the leadership of, of germany. some other countries have been moving foster, including most prominently the baltic states portland, and delivering certain capabilities to ukraine. france and the united kingdom have provided long wind, straight capable, which is to create and we're seeing restrictions being lifted more and more for the was on russian territory to target russian military capabilities and infrastructure there. but i agree that, that we're moving to sal and not at the scope that's required. and kristi's a to report ended with the question, is it enough to deter russia and the question would be, in your own case, you come from the baltics? is this current approach enough to deter a russian attack on poland and the baltic?

republics, many people say they're at the top of pretense list. if you created this this, this where would you agree? it is. so work in progress and what is important distress us the our prime minister color speed yesterday. any attack against one i like is an attack against may. so as a whole, uh now we have the new defense plans which are approved to us last year. so somebody in the us and there is work going on with the implementation of these plans. and in that regard, the current to somebody or is of course, discussing ways to ensure that there are sufficient to capabilities the manpower arms to actually make these plans credible. and implemented fully, so it is possible they can do it. but as we see this issue of the

increasing defense spending a strengthening dollar defense industrial capacity. it is a difficult one politically, and it is moving ahead slowly. and at the same time, we are speculating about how quickly to what extent a russia is able to uh, request to jump to its military. so that to it's my, it's actually of in future be capable of challenging one of the allies. let me pick up on a couple of those points, a starting with the question of some country spending more than others markets. in fact, many of the countries in the alliance do now meet the 2 percent target, but some are significantly over and a few are also still behind this donald trump. trump actually right when he says that there should be penalties for the laggards. while he was in 2016 because we then we had 5 countries. honestly,

the $29.00 members that match that 2 percent go spending of the, the gross domestic product of things that become better since them. but i, i do stress time, and again the collecting money is not equivalent to military capability. and that's what has to be produced for the future. and that means i'm doing 30 years of appeasement on doing 30 years over europe in policy that's sold. oh, well, russia will eventually move into a freedom and democracy direction that can be a common ground with russia. there can be no such thing. russia, it has become an imperialist state again. and it will try to extend its influence into western europe. and all we can do right now is to the, to that imperialism just speaking of laggards. let me ask you how you see germany. the chancellor of germany made a historic speech right after the russian invasion of ukraine, promising that germany would finally punched out it's economic weight when it comes

to defense and security. but has germany truly delivered or is this biggest economy in europe? still a laggard? well, i must say germany has done a lot for you train in terms of support in terms of the delivery of weapon systems . but if you look at it, and in terms of that gross domestic product, the other states that have done much more, including the very small baltic states. so i would say there's a difference between, again pledging money and putting military capability on the ground. and i think that is what ultimately john and policy has to be evaluated against will they deliver on military capability and not just the money and that, that it relates to both supporting ukraine and rebuilding the bonus. and raphael, let me ask you about a few of the things that donald trump has had to say. i mentioned his remarks about the laggards. he actually went on to say that he would tell russia to do whatever it wants with those that don't pay up. do you think it's just lester,

or would you say it's quite possible that he will deliver on that threat? look, i think donald trump is a very erratic personality. it's the deep on certainty. that's the problem. we've had some, some reports from people around time that as a agenda sort of forming and has circles in his orbit um to shift the burden of defending the euro atlantic area to europeans. that's something that europe and are becoming increasingly aware of. they are aware that the, you need to play a bigger role that they need to european nice, made to in many ways, ultimately do us. this is irreplaceable, as the political and military debt and the alliance. but that's the things that your opinions can do. more off and can do better. and i think the summit communicate shows a path towards moving and the right direction. and now as macros, clubs said it's about implementing those decisions and, and that's where again, the rubber hits the road, putting things on the table. christy that plan that raphael just referred to is

sometimes called the nato door meant plan. it's a plan of one of the think tanks that's been advising. donald trump, that essentially says the us wouldn't have to leave nato altogether or to enforce an icing relation to stance. it could simply recall that you're american commander of the forces in europe or possibly stopped contributing to nato's budget. how much tension did you pick up at the summit, on the sidelines of the meeting in regard to a possible radical shift in the us will. should trump be elected? it is impossible to predict what the potential done by the ministration will actually do regarding the nato. of course a, this is being discussed, but i can also say there is a degree of difference between the debates we are having in the east implant

countries ending ukraine in comparison to the western european countries. thinking that you still planned countries. um, the emphasis is more on the need to maintain a strong transatlantic link no matter what, no matter what would be the next president. and this is what we are preparing to do or something, or the countries are placing a very strong this is not one strengthening of not only the contributions in nature, but also the bi lateral ties to the us. because we see that, you know, if he's not capable low of replacing the contribution of to us anytime soon. and also what is a more emphasized thing, but it seems like countries and especially ukraine, is this dissatisfaction with what's made so has done thus far. of course, a lot of testing done since february 2022, but we kind of say that we are for he fully satisfied and confident that to me is

always doing enough. so the fact that to chop is pressing for your up to do even more does have a such a positive and talk to you just a marcus christie had mentioned earlier on defense industrial policy in europe. in fact, the last e u commission did take some measures to try to reinvigorate the defense industry in europe. but basically, are they just baby steps on speaking of 30 years of policy failure, we, we once all believed in the illusion that the war was over. it pro or oh yeah, it probably was never over, but the thing is there are no more physical capabilities in europe and they have to be recreated right now. and that, that concerns both the production of, of all my vehicles, but especially of an issue of calls about the rate i'm an ocean in particular. and that has to be rebuilt. and for the time being um,

people are trying to to get ammo from no matter where south korea from bucket stone, from any country that still produces them. and at the same time trying to, to reinvigorate their own production of facilities. and i think that is changing right now, but of course it will take a number of years until that industry is at the level where it can really out produce russian really quite briefly, if you would, because i do want to talk about the longer term future but russia has put its entire economy on a war footing. does that mean that it can stay in the war against ukraine indefinitely? well, when you speak about the entire economy of russian, we still have to think about that. that corresponds to approximately the economy of the netherlands in belgium, combined. and nato's complete military capabilities about 15 times in convention times what, what russia house. so we, and in europe, who are often prone to the illusion of, of an old like your russia, but cannot produce at all it's, it's not that simple. but of course,

russia has never deem it tries to such an extreme extent that europe has. and it's, it's about rebuilding that capability. let's look to, at the future of a 75 year old alliance. that faces not only unpredictable conflicts in ukraine in the middle east, but also a shifting geo political landscape. and a change in leadership. a fine with a new secretary general to be netherlands. mark was a, as the former long term prime minister of the netherlands. he's regarded as an experienced foreign policy expert, someone who represents stability and continuity products are very proud. and it is, it also feels like a huge task and big shoes to fill from stilton for hotel wouldn't make any further comments until he takes office book. she doesn't pulse back. he's described the so called russian peace con, as absolutely insane. the dutch politician also has a reputation as a trump whisper ref will someone who knows how to obtain the former president at

the munich security conference. this february also said that your opinions would have to work with any us president or in his words, whoever's on the top floor. before i begin to hold her, might have to stop as a group therapists for the allies in europe. the debates about ukraine's admission to nato will also be a roadblock. since russia has issued a warning that this would cross or red line is nato. ok. so these new challenges and let me ask you to answer that question about the but picking up on one point in particular because amongst the challenges that nato faces is an increasingly powerful china. and in fact, the summit of final communicate is a call out basically of tried his influence including its influence in providing military support to russia. so if we look at the behavior of se hungry, slovakia,

turkey, all of which maintained brother friendly relations with china. would you say that this alliance is up to the task? i mean, the countries that do have plenty of nations with withdrawn on the political level, there are other countries that have been kind of like dependencies on china. so china is certainly a systemic challenge as nato has described it in its strategic concept. $122.00, the summit communicate has found which that is more explicit describing that kind of change. but going beyond china ended support for russia in this war against a crane. that's also talking about iran and north korea. so we're really see consolidation of those excess that that presents a problem to the alliance and that they need to deal with an access that recently has been called the access of upheaval as opposed to the old term access of here for marcus, the outgoing secretary general installed in back says that the most urgent challenge at the moment is maintaining support for ukraine. and they don't allow plants to put that support under a special command right here in germany,

rather than the u. s. lead structure. it has had till now. does that essentially make the support trump proof for this? well, i would say it's institutionalizing what has already been happening since the russian who question the putting all the v spot in places and putting the international don't call the nation center in one central command. and i think that's a step in the right direction because it shows long term commitment. i wouldn't say it's necessarily from prove because trump can still do a lot of stupid things. so making a trump proof is, i think an institutional challenge will nato as a whole. and christy, one of the thorny is challenges facing nato, has been what to do about ukraine's membership about making ukraine a member of the alliance. germany. and the us have been quite hesitant to poland and the baltics in favor. the final communique has sort of squared the circle with

a reference to nato's membership to you and your friends membership. because being your reversible is that enough. if there is a, again, a little half step a for what's also in this regard, understand the expectations where much lower than they were one year ago in the building is when this issue was ok. debated now, it was clear that this language of the reverse ability is the maxime of that can be achieved. and i think it is also important to stress the as the inspector general's thought a birthday yesterday. that at this point, it is more important to look at the actions of the alliance and the role of practical things happening with the strengthening, the role of nato strengthening the interoperability between ukraine and a. so also the long term commitments of assistance. but there again, we could see that the, the stock number initial proposal to creates

a 100000000000 long term commitment of age a was not successful. so now we have a commitment of $40000000000.00 for the next year. and then from there on just the kind of a bad language about the long term commitment to us. we know the political and searching to make this commitment, the fairly a bit shaky. so marcus, summing up and coming back to our tide, or whether a 75 year old nato is fit for the future, we're looking at us unpredictably ability russian relaunch is a chinese ambition. and also some allies opportunism in the face of all of that. would you say nato is up to the challenge? i would say the point is to look to all around systems and to remember why nato was founded to hold on to the, to us. so we had expansion in europe and, well, replace soviet with russia and you have the business case again,

i think it's about the terms. it's about realizing what you of apple and i think that is a very good topic for reflecting of to 75 years. if you're still relevant and if you can still do it, i hope think ralphio, it is a very different uh, global geo political constellation. now then it was, then what do you think is nato up to the demands? i think it is. i think this momentum going in the right direction needs to be accelerated. it needs to be expanded in scope, but let's me to get in 5 years for the idea of number 3. and then we can take a look at the rear view mirror and christy, just in one sentence, you've talked about a lot of half steps on the part of nato. do they add up to the whole a whole or not the buttons? the question for the future paper such as the does have the resources to move ahead to take care of it. stuff of collective defense of the question is also thoughts, political results where i think good. the 2nd half is philip. it's me think thank

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