common ground, it's really damaged their reputation as parties has less in fact, to a situation where in these regional elections, they're likely to do very badly indeed. well, thank you so much. that is hands brand, our political correspondent, and that is our show at this hour. and i'm clear. richardson, thank you so much for watching the i sorry one on 6 time. so please come into the more people than ever on the move worldwide. in such a regression line, kind of one great timing is very hard to say very difficult to find out about time on storing info migrants the nato,

the north atlantic treaty organization was formed to 75 years ago. it's aim to prevent war between solver and countries, the 75 years of europe and history without a war. that's the ultimate expression of a successful alliance. then, on february 24th 2022. russia launched a full scale invasion of ukraine. war had returned to europe. ukraine itself is not a needle member, but russia's actions have prompted the question. is the western military alliance capable of defending itself? how strong is nato? the

russian president vladimir putin viewed the eastern expansion of nato as both a threat and betrayal of a purported promise and booting size. it was a breach of trust that justified russia's attack on another country. he made that clear and an address to the nation 3 days before a russian troops invaded ukraine. the scene is gonna be just keep close enough to diagnose loaner cars based on a need, but i would like that i substitute system. i be speaking. who does that process? that is the project, right? and they say that again, sort of, i mean, we were supposed to be speaking into that process, the motions. so similar to what was the level of you, this is daniel crane, another. it's a pretty maya mr. holmes. who was the senior a business like like by the mass. oh yeah, no, it seems like it's like, oh my gosh, was name be sure to get something even though some guy who comes up. so for most of us hope you're doing, you get a minute. so you can look at what's the 1st on the sample i beach and to you,

please. i do it as best, but i knew you can see me like him. the piece was to be on that that you might be doing. must push the button when he is still, i mean, yeah, you don't mind your christmas right in your way in. the other thing is that the nothing knows that, that's it. that's not one inch eastward. that's the much quoted promise. nato is said to have made to russia so did the west to betray russia as story and mary isa rocky has spent most of her academic life focusing on that exact question. she's conducted more than $100.00 interviews and scrutinized countless transcripts letters and documents. and ultimately, she found a clear answer. what i would really like would be if the russians would lay down their weapons and go home. i can't make that happen. but in a certain sense, putting this, trying to use history is

a weapon to justify what he's doing. and i am a historians. and so in my own little way, it's very minor compared to what the premiums are doing. but in my own little way, i can perhaps take that weapon away from him by showing and a serious, reproducible scholarly way. the true narrative, the actual narrative of what happened. the story begins shortly after the fall of the berlin wall. germany was on the brink of reunification, but there was a challenge. germany had surrendered unconditionally after the 2nd world war. so the 4 and victor powers of the us, france, britain, and the soviet union still had undisputed legal rights over divided germany, and particularly over divided berlin. so in order for germany to unify, all 4 had to give those powers up the 3 victorious western powers. ask themselves what the 4th power would demand. what would the soviet union's last liter mikhail

gorbachev want in return for allowing the reunification of germany the the former west german foreign minister hans dietrich denture was, was certain that corporate charles would want the security of knowing and dentures words that neither poland nor hungary is going to join nato, so venture thought that was reasonable and felt strongly that the western allies, so america, britain, france, and west germany should offer that to gorbachev. denture, propose the idea to us secretary of state james baker. he too thought it was reasonable. on february 9th 1990 baker visited gorbachev at the kremlin and he says roughly the following. how about you let your part of germany go. and we say that nato nato, in its jurisdiction,

will move not one into sports. after the meeting, baker flew back to the us to report back to his boss and a good friend, president george w bush. bush, however, was anything but impressed with the proposal, the bush says, jim, i'm disappointed in you. i don't think we should negotiate about the future of nato . i think nato just won the cold war. i think nato is great just the way it is. so we're not going to do that. and you need to let people know. so one of my more interesting discoveries was a letter that baker then wrote to the west german 4 and ministry at the end of february, saying, i'm sorry, i should have said that i've caused confusion. we need to stop talking about this. and after that, this offer disappears from you american negotiating position. 2 weeks later, bush invited west german chancellor, helmut kohl and his wife to camp david the us president's country residence

bush said to call pretty much the same thing for the trip to james baker. we're not going to negotiate or the future of nato to help with that. or that's a direct quote to help with that. and coal responded okay. the corporate job is going to want something in exchange for his burdening chips and goals. coal thought about it and said, perhaps it will be a question of money. and bush responded. you have deep pockets. and the later defense minister bob gates, who was basically taking notes around this time, he bob gates later wrote his memoirs. at that moment the strategy became clear. we were going to bribe the soviets out, but with money not with promises about native american the $2.00 plus for negotiations dragged on until september 12th 1990. by then nothing stood in the way

of german reunification. and the line, not one inch eastward was not in any treaty. storage is to send the vague and attack. you would just be fine. you're going to dodge. so and then by talk real. feel 72, it even guns. so this was not an amateur. our, these were professionals negotiating, this was the a team is we say in america, and at the end, what actually was in the contract explicitly allows nato to enlarge across the former cold war front line. that i believe is what is most important. and the soviet union not only signed that accord, not only ratified it, but also cashed the associated check from billions of deutsch marks. that doesn't mention. so what who does is he mentioned the early phase of negotiations where that was a possibility. but then he ignores what actually happened to the end. months later,

the soviet union collapsed. the warsaw pact was officially dissolved. the soviet flag over the kremlin was lowered nato when the west had one. suddenly the question arose. what should they don't do next? month after 1990, there was this idea of the peace dividend all states in europe in the west, but also russia and other former soviet states reduce their arms. the idea was if everyone, that's your weapons, it signaled nobody wanted conflict in that one's view of one kind of conflict. and for a few years at least, the idea seemed to work. relations between russia and the west, improved and 1997 leaders of nato countries and russian president boris yeltsin, signed a cooperation agreement called the nato, russia of founding act. german diplomatic, both gong issue was after negotiations give it to you. in the 1st half of the

1990s, the relationship was by no means confrontational or hostile or russian needed cooperation with the west of a rush. it was later admitted to the g 7 or so suddenly we were the g 8 of going on, but see by the us the nato, russia founding act, literally states, nato and russia. do not consider each other as adversaries there for me, and we would still be even in the spot who is like apps on ok. but see it. if don't see it, i see it choose to be too bad or you know, or your view of it all. in the founding that the west made concessions to rush out just because of didn't give you, couldn't we agreed that no nuclear weapons would be deployed on the territory of future eastern natal member states, go to a period and build and vote so i wouldn't even know if the sort,

but despite the accept you, we also accepted that the deployment of troops from nato member states in those countries would only be allowed to take place in a very limited way. so there's stuff in dawson and tomato honor. that agreement says andre courts who not academic director of the russian international affairs council in moscow. the, the license, too young to me have to do. i agree that between 20142022 the north atlantic treaty organization showed us such and restraint. a yacht, people all up the years unless folks because side side of the machine, you know, the restraint in deploying new troops and heavy weapons to its eastern flank to roll. it would really not for you all of us pushing of long get it to believe this

was evidently done to avoid any accusation of violating the provisions of the nato russia founding act as local guys to uh, act uh uh, the right see not the category the act does not allow the parties to station launch off most of weapons along the russian border. really, uh, probably use it like a saying, yeah, i'm gonna get the most one. on the other hand, russia is doing things very differently. to me this nuclear, we have to assume that there are nuclear capable missile systems and a couple in, in red, which wouldn't get much warning to us sitting here in berlin right here. a lot is happening, they're passing it i because we haven't done any of that needs. we haven't done anything in this domain that didn't already exist before reunification or during the cold war. exist it even when booting came to power in 1999. the relationship between russia and nato was peaceful. the old enemy seemed to have become a friend. meanwhile,

a new adversary had emerged. terrorism to this day, the alliance is article 5 has only ever been invoked once. following the terrorist attacks of september, 11th 2001. today our fellow citizens, our way of life, are very freedom, came under attack in a series of deliberate and deadly terrorist attacks the pictures of airplanes flying into buildings, fires, burning huge, huge structures. collapsing have filled us with disbelief. at the time stephanie bobs was a nato security adviser at headquarters in brussels, watching as events unfolded the as gab down much oh, do you forced along during the attacks but also off too. it's there was

a sense that we should expect to find them or tax fights of an uncle, and we didn't know why. and why, remember very well how unsettled we felt as employees at nato headquarters to use. okay, we so we will also target, we have an even 5 target so again, if it was directed from abroad, i didn't see, and i did see it shall be regardless as an x and some of the signs of the washington t. and you'll find, find us easy, clean that regard. there was a considerable risk and info, king obstacle, 5 pieces by china because nobody knew what the situation would be like in a week's time of their kindergarten. and whether the americans would suddenly demand immediate military support from their allies. and nobody could know that for ca, tile is off to the attacks. then obviously new mustang in response

to the attacks us, president george w bush declared a war on terror and $2170.00 nations took part in the subsequent war in afghanistan, including all nato countries and russia. a few days after the attacks put in speaking german address to the german parliament in berlin, who did the other. the other is foods and was one of the very 1st to express his condolences and a willingness to help after 911. that's relations were still stable. back them w when the of the other day i'm going to have defending happens. when does the united states you see that was so difficult for them to be getting some shoots in his own thing and gave them to them and kind of because i spoke with you, it's from september in the, in the time to finish talking to she is one of in plus mentioned in the guns, severely foggins. this is, this will come and come with we have done. so the issue that definitely ended

honestly dixon for an interview. the political that you're leaving, right. this is beth. this is doing this because i know 5 michelle new in duplicate . how do you get a model? can you give no notes with the polling. ready ready hooton's supported nato in afghanistan in the fight against dial kinda some of nato's logistics were routed via russia at the time, put in even considered the prospect of russia joining nato. the . ready both russia and nato member states benefit from the cooperation economically and politically you're probably and you have certainly used to move to very much. it was

a very good cooperation between the west and russia dollars, essentially in the early 2, thousands a year and then the well yeah, yeah, complete get that goes out. that wouldn't store are the best example is probably the transportation options that russia offered nato during the war in afghanistan or the out of so posting like you all a while you're in the, the so called the northern transport car at all. well, well, so several years you're going to need the prospect me give me a book, it proved to be very effective. you can get the category of option because also effects even from 2000 to onwards. representatives of russia and nato met regularly in the nato, russia council. the mood among leaders was playful and up being more like go set the minute the step. quite a few of them. i think even though i did the dumpster idea of go much do i think the

slippery slope and the i think started to go downhill with the us decision to intervene in iraq. if not before then gosh, i don't. because moscow, of course, had the feeling that a red line hadn't been crossed. oh yes is. and what do you wish with him if the americans were going to start that kind of war means you get the with thousands of tanks and soldiers. and as it turned out, the based on false information and then where, what it ends on it was, it was investing in it was the beginning of the end of good relations between russia and the west. russia, like china and france voted against the invasion of a rock at the un security council. the us invaded any way without a un mandate in 2007, 4 years after the us invaded iraq with its coalition of the willing food and spoke

at the munich security conference. he took the united states and its allies to task over their policies. the bottom i can see and see that, you mean it wasn't worth list, is it is these new book but this uh yeah. okay. give me to go. but it's a google anybody yet? let me know what's the diploma? just give me something it does up with the some fox in the what is the fact that contact was maintained between moscow and brussels was very often seen as some kind of fav from nato towards russia. very near a couple of a r c, a pull would show us as the counselors almost exclusively considered a mechanism for exchanging information mugs, really but one which had no serious decision making functions you've got to you.

and of course, with those 2 approaches were bound to clash sooner or later that you develop. i for the around the loop was not those little bit of salt mode. so we can still void show. but in a position yes, no publication depends a bit moves and there was no problem moisture at the ideally, nor them in the past due to the new system over the semester, usually feel better. so you almost doesn't finish out of the list lane that's on the new the bus with the west. if you look on them, if you find the ticket, you put when you thought i see it in. maybe also it's the beginning of the look i'm with the front of that. come with the brother of actually, physically, i guess we probably reacted unwisely. zillow, the reaction was basically to assume he just needed to let off some steam. with that the next morning, it would be back to business as usual. that turned out to be a miscalculation in the field. so we found that out in 2008 at the latest. i mean,

when russia responded to the georgia uprisings with massive military force, me to tell them after that, when the things really went downhill because of back up in 2014 russian forces occupied crimea. the pro russian insurgents and eastern new crane were supported with arms supplies, logistics, and irregular forces. the official line was that moscow was protecting the russian language and culture. in reality, it was probably also about preventing ukraine from joining nato. after all, no country involved in a conflict is allowed to join the alliance. who rushes face scale track on your brain would follow in 2022. the

rushes for administer essentially declared that the nato, russia council was no more they want to go back to the borders of 1997. they sent a concept treat to text and later in december 2021. and that means that the basically all the members that since 1997 have become a member of nato, would sort of become a 2nd to a class member. of course that is unacceptable. who wants less of nato? instead? he's getting more of it. finland to join the alliance in 2023 suite and applied for membership in 2022, but wasn't admitted at 1st for 20 months, took as president read ship type air to one block, sweden's membership that hungary opposed to even longer

only to members have the right to veto, for example, when it comes to new member states as a just reading obviously shirts which is so sweet and had been preparing for over a year. well, they've made an incredibly important, really quite a historic decision. they had to get it through parliament, which was a difficult political fate to. so the sister from that they were more or less dependent on 2 people, missed a oven and missed a other one and all bundled. so they were on the doorstep and they basically have to beg, quotes i to of you convicted research, are you guys out? dean says everyone has deliberately used nato to make profitable deals for years. and his role at the german institute for international and security affairs id and has observed the turkeys foreign policy of this at all. and there's also a tactical reason for the turkish position with turkey wants to extort more benefits. so to the us, if you want to put it that way and that's was i kind of escaped,

it's about acquiring x. 16 fighter jets, for example, jets. turkey isn't going to make it easy. i mean, the country is negotiating this once a 100. meanwhile, nato once again faces an age old question. how united with the alliance be in the event of an attack. polling suggests that nearly 3 quarters of turks now see it's nato partner of the united states as their greatest threat. nato itself now has just 23 percent support in turkey. nato is most important member was and is the us. it's key to the alliance of strength and its future. we assembled here today are issuing a new degree to be heard in every city, in every foreign capital and in every hall of power. from this day forward, a new vision will govern our land. from this day forward,

it's going to be only america. first, america, 1st the united states, please, an extremely important coordinating role in nato. the president is, is the most important person in the alliance, and without an american president and all of that means in terms of american military and nuclear power. and the, the alliance itself would be just a shadow of itself. good. in july 2018. nato secretary general young sheldon back and us president donald trump launched on camera. out of nato summit in brussels. germany is just a little bit over one percent. whereas the united states and actual numbers has thing 4.2 percent of

a much larger g d p. so i think that's inappropriate roles. you know, we're protecting germany, we're protecting france, we're protecting everybody. and yet we're paying a lot of money to protect. now this has been going on for decades, and then numerous of the countries go out and make a pipeline deal with russia, where they're paying billions of dollars into the coffers of russia. and i think that's very inappropriate. and the former chancellor of germany is the head of the pipeline company that supplying the gas in 2014 nato member states agreed to spend a 2 percent of gdp on defense. but apart from the united states modeling, any country stuck to it, the john bolton was us national security advisor for around 18 months under donald trump until the president forced him to resign. when i took the job is national security advisor. i believe that the weight of the decisions that the president had to make

in the national security field, the gravity of the responsibility would weigh on donald trump and discipline him in the same way it had for 44 american presidents before him. bolton was there on the 2nd day of the nato summit when trump nearly caused the major incident. the while i was in a car over to our embassy residence in brussels, where the president was staying. and he called me in the car and said, uh, i think we should do something historic today. i think we should withdraw from nato . and i said this somewhat surprised by that. i said, well, let's discuss it. i'm almost there. as soon as i hung up with the president, i called the mike pompei o the secretary of state and called john kelly white house chief of staff. i tried to reach matt as the secretary of defense to basically say all hands on deck. i

think this is very serious the for the 1st time and need those history. us withdrawal seemed a real possibility. the . well, i was very worried that the trump would actually announce with roy, all right, they are not that we had considered it not that we had discussed it at the n s c. but because trump, once he started talking about something, i often just went ahead and did. and at one point trump said to me that basically he was going to replace me with someone who didn't argue with him. but who just said yes. when he said things like, i want to get out of nato. the last conversation i had with him, he was literally sitting at the big table in the nato meeting room. he called me up

and said, well, shall we do it? and i said that, go right up to the line, but don't go over the line. and then i went and sat back down. and when i sat down, i had no prediction 40 would do the i think with a normal president, it would have been seen as a blow because people know that come on the united states needs nato, just as much as nato needs the united states. so nobody would have taken him serious. he comes across is not truly appreciating the significance of the alliance or what it even means or understanding the history or why do we do what we do? he, he understands the world and then transactional sense. quit pro crow vin each. if i give you secure, is he what do i get in return? why do i have it was deal when it comes to nature that he didn't appreciate that

nature was impose and for the us in order to create global stability and security for him, it's just to do that. but can you give me this? and i'll give you that keyboard, that's what nato is about, surface the mission of, of, of the not to do nothing came of trumps threats. but nato allies, especially those in europe. we're concerned me. berlin july 2019 simulation was carried out by london's international institute for strategic studies and the cub of foundation security experts from germany, france, the u. k. poland, and the us to part. everything happened in secret. neither the location nor the participants were disclosed. the executive director of international affairs at the club foundation by these and then i ended up them as a sole task for the scenario exercises we invite and government officials but also

people from the academic world. and from the think tanks of the think tank that i was for sure they come from various countries that are relevant for the scenario we're playing out new and then the funds and a and a very important requirement. and these simulation games is that the list of participants remains absolutely confidential, obviously with fatality type. the technician scenario was this. during a 2nd, trump presidency. the us announces its withdrawal from nato. it was in the military scenario. it was a political one. what concessions, what the remaining member states be prepared to make with nato even collapse under the strain of the us threat. as of the start, your team about details for hi, it's of a german team was quite prepared to throw the issue of trade policy into the equation,

voc charlottesville for the pulling volume. and the polish team was relatively quick to enter into talks with the americans along the lines of hey hey, what can we do beyond nato, in terms of a bilateral security policy agreements, be that to are, and in the, the shots pretty to should fine boned. so send that, of course was actually a concern for the other players in the game. yeah. and then up to and these, infuse then, then the and because we start making bilateral security agreements with the west nation. but then the structure, you know, will be undermined to the us to not tool. i spoke to that if you went to the new to that and what they expected would happen. but it was a return to a series of bilateral alliance as alliances between 2 states. maybe 3 states in europe, and what they saw was the return to rickety system of alliances like those that had existed in europe before the 2nd world war. and then in some cases before the 1st world war 2, and they worried that this would be

a very unstable and dangerous situation, where states would have a series of different security obligations that could activate a whole series of dominos, if you will, if a conflict where to begin, the scenario secretly played out in berlin in 2019 became relevant once more in 2024. trump has repeatedly made nato an election issue and his campaign appearances the and we don't get so much out of it. and you know, i hate to tell you this about nato. if we ever needed the help, let's say we were attacked. i don't believe they'd be there. i very much fear if he becomes president again, he will withdraw from data. but he will probably also band and ukraine, that who knows what else he will do. i think it will be very destructive, very counterproductive. i think that the trump will withdraw from nato because he

has felt for so long. but it was something he wanted to do. i think he feels frustrated that he wasn't able to do it. in his 1st term. he probably blames people like myself and several others and, and try in a 2nd. trump term. he will not be burdened by people like me. i can tell you. they asked me that question. one of the presidents of, of the countries stood up said, well sir, uh if we don't pay and were attacked by russia. will you protect us? i said you didn't pay your delinquent. you said yes. let's say that happened. no, i would not protect you. in fact, i would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. so you gotta say, gotta pay your bill. and the money came flowing in. we were like the stupid country of the world and we're not going to be the stupid country of the world any longer. we're not going to be the to see if the real danger

isn't unofficial us withdrawal from nato. that was, that's something that congress made clear again in 2019 with legislation on some of my daughters. you must have the president does not have the power to break the north atlantic treaty suppression. fatiguing treaties have to go through congress if she could. 5. that's the police. a real danger is a lack of political will to do anything. in the case of an ally being attacked by whether the president and the white house, as trump, or someone else, i've been given it. even if the trump is re elected and doesn't officially withdrawal from nato. because the us congress doesn't allow him to come. he can still decide to do nothing. if an attack takes place, then put them on a contract. the us congress would still have the power to disable. but the us presidents from as military commander could simply not send troops from the i could

the world's largest military alliance, and it's famous article 5 be undermined by just one person. and that's not the only threat to nato global power dynamics have been shifting for years to life. and i think for one thing us society is changing some of that. but also in recent years, there's been a dramatic increase in the perception that china is a threat. we own a global play of that could take on the us under the category rushes and a completely different category. when it comes to that, according to the global fire power index, china is ranked just after the united states and russia when it comes to military strength and worldwide. modernization of beijing is military is set to be completed by 2035 plus china already has the largest navy in the world. satellite images from recent years show how china has build up huge military bases on small on developed ad holes in the south. china sea in china is taking an

increasingly aggressive stance towards taiwan and other agents dates those dates are internal, also hoping for assistance from the us and nato. the team that we're also seeing this with you claim increasingly the question is can we be equally active and both sides see it says in both regions magic t that we are now standing on ukraine in terms of weapons and supports. should we already be supplying that to tie $12.00, in case of a conflict from success databases going on in the us, getting types of apps. pnc 5 titles and i wasn't part of a delegation to the us in 20. 19. during our discussions, the americans told us russia is your problem. it's a european problem now. he's not ours anymore. you have to take care of it. and that's, that's not going to change. even if and 10 or 20 years, we have better relations with russia until then,

your parents have to come to terms with the idea that the us may simply not be able to act in a conflict because they may be busy elsewhere. the ones that are on the mantel challenge for europeans in the future will be to show how they can also be useful and not just the beneficiary of us security. or is there a need for a plan be like a unified european army after roll? particle $42.00 of the treaty on european union contains its own mutual assistance guarantees similar to nato's article 5. the needless to say, the us wouldn't be the military power. it is today if it wasn't centralized, and that's exactly why a european army under a unified command structure is so unlikely, because we're not one country like the united states. you have leucon of the european union is made up of 27 countries mind. they will never let us central

command in brussels, for example, take military decision making out of the center. and it's a time come understand the implicit somebody in february 2024 european commission president also to fund the lion support in a proposal to appoint an e u. defense commissioner in the future. but the idea of a european army would have to be approached over the long term, the a festival. what the europeans can do is a line the army so that they are complementary, so that they work together. they still wouldn't achieve the necessary level of deterrence against russia, but at least they'd have a foundation on which they could carry out small to medium sized emissions on their own. and if you want to tapes, fuel small to medium sized dimensions are unlikely to discourage russia in the long term. in january 2024,

nato began its largest truth exercise since the end of the cold war named steadfast defender, 90000 soldiers practicing their reaction to a simulated attack. over several months, the hypothetical opponent, russia, the united kingdom diplomat had said essentially, every time nato gets into trouble, the russians come along and save it was what you deal, not as he just nato is now. in fact, returning to the reason the north atlantic bulk was founded in 1949 else of the keeping moscow, a bay of z. everyone, you must correct whether proven likes it or not. russia's war and ukraine has reinvigorated nato. the

is think is, is the good to your opinions and of course is gemini, it's the biggest test that we have faced since the end of the 2nd world war. this is not some minor crisis that we can manage from the side lisles. it's kind of minutes and regardless of external pressure, the looming risk between europe and the us is unmistakable. europeans are facing completely new challenges. a fight because the ministry power of all european states put together some g to small compared to what the us has creating a european defense policy that could function without nato would take decades. not to mention require much more than the 2 percent of g d. p. that's being demanded today. would escape just providing the money isn't enough. things have to be produced. weapon systems would have to be made the kind europe kind of the dream of today, kind of what it is hopeless with the post cold war piece. dividend seems to have

been used up. the defense is once again, part of every day political discourse been for me didn't fall. i have a family, a lot of us here. our fathers and mothers, we don't want more than, you know, it's the very thing we want to prevent the guns and beat. so how can it be prevented? a, so the by 1st caring for something like it to me and by sending a message to somebody who just over a year ago, carried out an attack on a neighbor he piece by saying get orders to that won't work here. so i'm here to house kind of way after 75 years, nato is once again confronting the task it faced when it was found in preventing a war, the

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