how this will take her shot to the full of presidents and another high stakes in kansas. will they stick to policy or will the verbal sparring get personal? i'm feel go invalid and this is the day the she's practicing for the debates. she's lock yourself in a room, it's got a lot to learn or i finally got to look at best part of a prep were run by stupid people stupid, stupid people. and we found that out. it's a debate with joe. how does that work out? the st. louis that we're going to find it out again on tuesday night, is anybody going to be watched both

on the day. how is your rescue? the european union from falling behind the us and china report from one of the blocks biggest economic fin, cause ones effects the central challenges for the u economy or so the 1st time since the cold war, we must generally fear for our self preservation. and the reason for the unified response and never being so compelling. welcome to the day. now one of the most hunter's advice in moments of issue is us presidential election campaign is just the day away. tuesday nights t v device will be the 1st of a face to face meeting between vice president couple of harris and donald trump. at the moment it's the only scheduled debate that both companions have a drink too. but the light is po, showing the 2 candidates a neck and neck. there's a lot at stake in tomorrow's show down. since many pundits are predicting that november's result will be decided by just a small number of voters in off. it doesn't key battleground, states,

swaying those fuels could prove decisive over the weekend how this campaign picked up endorsements from former republican vice president dick cheney and his daughter liz list. china used to be a leading republicans in congress until she was sidelined for criticizing donald trump. over his attempt to over tubs, the 2020 election results. i've never voted for a democrat. um and uh, it tells you, i think the stakes in this selection. you know, donald trump presents a challenge and a threat. fundamentally, to the republic, at the end of the day, the vast majority of people in this country want to know fundamentally that, that they're elected officials are going to defend the peaceful transfer of power. and that they are going to put the constitution. first, i'm honored to have their support, and i think it's an important se, but right now a lot of what i think is happening. and i was just talking with some folks here in

pittsburgh about it is that people are exhausted about that division and, and the attempts to kind of divide us as americans were run by stupid people stupid, stupid people. and we found that out at the debate with joe, how does that work out? and we're going to find it out again on tuesday. and i do will be the worst president. he is the worst president's in history. she will be worse than him. she will be worse than them, and trump is never wrong. i am never, ever wrong. may as well now have the election, the next the police to be joined. so i by i didn't list one who is distinguished professor of history at american university. he knows pretty much all there is to know about us elections. professor lisman is the author of the book predicting the next president and is correctly predicted 9 option baton elections going back to 1984. a welcome to the w professor. will ask for you about production for this year

shortly. so. so let's look at, choose the united states, the by the candidates opposing that come back through. we expect this debate to shift been a little a look, i don't care what the poles say, the. busy clothes are snapshots, they are abused by people like nate silver and the princeton pauline can search him as though they were predictors. that's why those compilers or poles were so badly wrong. in 2016 when i called donald trump and they were predicting and overwhelming likelihood that hillary clinton will when the. busy showed as late as october that mitt romney was going to beat for rock obama. i stuck with buck prediction against the poles that brock obama was going to win. as late as june, july of 1988. the pole had george h. w bush. 17 points behind his opponent, mike dukakis,

the post as the pundits were saying, no one can overcome this deficit at the same time. it just the general like in that so, so at the moment, so this type of polls have them that connect your convince that the polls don't, don't know what they're talking about. the polls unpredicted documents, ok. the predictor and the arrow margin is heavier. they tell you the are margins plus and minus about 3 percent, but that's pure a statistical error. what they don't tell you is there is very large non statistical error on top of that. okay. people don't respond. they like they haven't focused, no one's voted yet. so they have to guess the likely voters to the polls are so widely in the era, but you can't use them. given that the, the wealth of your experience, what do you see the strength of each of these kinds of thoughts going into this debate? again,

i'll ask the questions and others in question uh my system. the keys to the white house does not depend upon the candidates. yeah, no, we're going to get to that. i'm the master for you. for your thoughts on the candidates? no, i don't have any thoughts about that cuz it's leads us again down the primrose of error. you cannot predict election results by looking at the characteristics of the candidate with hillary clinton, a worst candidate then donald trump was hubert humphrey, a worst candidate. then richard nixon, one of the most reviled figures, even to that point in us history, was john kerry worse than george w bush. i won't go down that direction because that's another way we create errors . understood. all right, let's talk about your predictions which i, i read you based on what you call your 13 keys to the white house. rise of the conditions that type of the reaction to be incumbent policy. a 5 or few don't hold

true, as you say that you for that be encumbered potty when i 6. so more a false and being convinced that face the face. so what i'm going to go through will 15 tonight, but we'll look at a couple that start with case 5 and 6. the short term long term economy, other riley in august. donald trump criticize what he called couple of harris is bradley co liberal policies, a segment that costs everything, inflation and blaming by the nomics for the profit rise in prices since 2020. what do your keys say about the former president's economic assessment? a sure take the rhetoric of candidates and do with it. what the great philosopher, david hume said, you should do to work some superstition, consign them to the flags my short term and long term economic keys or statistical. there's nothing to do with the candidates, say the short term economic. he says the economy is not in recession during the election year. answer true,

always favors the white house party. there is no recession, no way in the next 2 months, the recession is going to grip the us. that key favors the democrats. my long term economic aid is also statistical. did the growth reopen the capital during the binding term? the current term at least equal the average of the previous 2 terms and growth on divide and it has been. busy than double the average of the previous 2 terms. so that key is also true favoring the incumbents. ok, that's the key number 8, which was sustained social unrest. you say that hasn't been any. what would you call the months of campus demonstrations? the us so protesting for and against the american policy towards these violin indeed is rouse policy towards gaza and they're always demonstrations and protests every year. but again, you've got to stick to the definition of the keys. i've been attacked,

saying my keys are subjective. they're not, they're very carefully defined, and they've been answered at least retrospectively since 18. 60 and prospector lives since 1984 to turn the key. it has to be massive, sustained social unrest sufficient to call into question the stability of the society, like we saw on the 19th sixty's when millions of people were out in the streets, the cities worked up in flames. nothing approaching that. despite the sporadic demonstration, just by the way filled the way of the democratic convention, so that key is clearly true, not close. okay, so what is your prediction then for the outcome of november's election? i am predicting a pass breaking new president that the cala harris will become the 1st woman president of the united states. maybe not shattering the glass ceiling,

but at least cracking it. and she also becomes the 1st president of combined african and east asian to say, remember the keys are measured against the strength and unit and performance of the white house party. it takes 6 keys to count them out. under the worst case scenario, they only lose 5 keys under the more plausible scenario they only leaves for so my prediction is for. okay, so, and how long did it take you to come to the conclusion that these keys, as you say, old, based in statistics? how long do you compile them before you come to a conclusion as well? the not all quite statistical, but they're all carefully defined. i start tracking my keys. the moment a new administration takes place and sometimes not this time, the keys fall into place early. for example,

my 1st prediction was the re election of ronald reagan in april 1982, nearly 3 years ahead of time during the worst recession today. since the great depression, when his approval ratings were down in the dumps, i called the very tough to call 2012 election in 2010. in fact, gratuitously out of the blue, i was attacked by night silver. so you can't make a prediction this early and being a professor. of course i responded with a long paper which boils down to the fact that you can because you're just to compiler, a polls which are useless at this point. but i can because my system tracks how elections really work. so i'm on the job. busy all the time. okay, so november. well, well we'll tell the truth professor alan, listen that from the american university called in november's election, a full come a lot higher. thank you so much for joining us until it gets through that. thank you. my pleasure

for european central bank the chief motto drug a is urging the a you to develop a new industrial strategy. the count of what he says is it's the munition capacitive in us the full, the prime minister of answer that he has released a report warning, but be your opinion risks folding further behind the us and china. the smile was and boom, veiling a star warning from the month cost with telling the you what it needs to do in order to catch up with the economies of china on the us. what we have trying to do now becomes existing show itself, and that's why we care so much. i, us, and this, why do we fall? we loud you for. whether you do finding a imagine this feature rod the go change, which will have to be urgent. and concrete is reporting dorsey is increasing investment in industry by up to 5 percent of the use g,

d p. the equivalents of nearly $800000000000.00 your raise per year. the highest of mine, since the post will period, it stays, the disposable income per capita in the us has grown almost twice as foss than in the uses to size. and meaning households on this side of the atlantic are seeing more of a squeeze. it was you commission president, us live on the line who tossed striking to put together the report. what we have to do is look at the political will to have these common european projects and then the fine. um, are we going to finance them to new, a national contribution or other national contributions or new own resources? those so called own resources a when the e u takes on debt rather than the use governments themselves. it's happened before and it is endorsed in this new report, but it's politically complicated, a rind

e u capitals, who are resistant to handing over power to brussels. the reports blaming, decreasing levels of productivity in the you and says more needs to be spent on innovation. and d called an icing industry in order to come to balance it ones too much effort. it's gone into preserving traditional industrial heavy weights in your at like jam and call me cuz doug is reports, he's being backed by many senior economist here in europe. but they cooling for less toke and more action. we've talked about it, we've actually even claim to agree among ourselves. these are our strategic goals and you're, but we haven't acted on it yet. and until the, your leaders actually act upon an hopefully many of the recommendations in the report. quite frankly, i don't think either badging or washington is going to pay much attention to how being fee is that the report will be used to drive down and work as wages in your up to compete. maria druggie and says that finding the investments need it is the

only way to protect the high quality of life. the citizens of the european union enjoy a report from our brussels correspond to jack power crew joins us now. welcome jack. how bad is the use competitiveness compared to the us in china? so well, according to this reports, pretty bad. so that's what mario drag is saying. there's a couple of things that he highlights here. for instance. he says the gross is just not going to be helped by the rising population like it has done in the past. the report stays that by 2042 1000000 people per year will be dropping out to the use workforce. that's been a big driver for growth in the past to say, says that one of the big issues is the diversification which we seen in the economies of china and the united states, for instance, that the european companies that with the biggest 20 years ago are still the biggest companies now, whereas in china or in the us,

they are companies and companies driving the green and digital transitions in those economies. he also highlights one of the big issues for the european union, which is the loss of its unicorn. so unicorn is a stall top that goes on to be a company with over a 1000000000 dollars and 30 percent of the use unicorns and relocating to the united states rather than staying here in your of providing jobs. i'm providing growth. so hold into my a druggie as a number of other issues are outlined in the reports, but these are some of the major ones. they're showing that the competitive edge versus the us or china is just being lost in europe. ok, so let's this talk about how this report is being received in germany and france to major european countries. it could be seen as being emblematic of the problems of facing the blog. let's start with friends where they seem to rise. if anyone's so

much as thinks about changing light conditions, how does your reach us or china level productivity without big changes to labor conditions? that yeah, that means that is really the huge question and something that the french president i'm on your micro, on his being say for his whole time in office is what he's really trying to do is dying demise the labor market but seems huge. here's a negative reactions to that. and on top of that, at the moment, what the friends government at the new government of michelle bonnie, the new prime minister that is going to have to face is essentially the months to reduce spending. not increase it. as this report by mario drive, he suggests that budget needs to be taught this huge debt, growing debt to him fronds, and they know that they need to reduce it. so there's going to be increased pressure on the not to increase spending. really it's, it's the big question for friends at the moment. but broadly, they do know that in order to increase competitiveness,

that will need to be additional spending an e u level that is something that the french president and manual micron has consistently pushed full on germany. europe's biggest economy, famously, dest of us and with a massive car industry has been slow to embrace electric. vehicle technology is probably really a going to backup plan to increase shad debt and boost an industry that might put its own at a competitive disadvantage. yeah, and another big question, the really difficult thing for this sort of report is to get frogs in germany on board. if they don't, then it's unlikely it's going to move much further. as you say, the big question is whether the german government will get on board with this. it is important to say the previous tongue. so the anger, the mac, well was the one that it's a loud at your bones that collectively shouldering joint debt by the institutions for the 1st time she finally released that. but that's been consistently

a reluctance in germany to a lie about to go further, especially not as a sort of common position where the you does this, the john is on a low, not the does the more whole cuz countries in the north of your a pretty much against seeing this as a, as a way of consistently doing business for the european union. and as you say, there's huge pressure on specifically european commission president us live on the line from head native germany from big voices, especially in the car industry as the how the german car industry and notes to make moves economically. that would actually put pressure back on the german car industry, which is what some of the things in this report seem to suggest to diversify a way from some of those big traditional industries that have been heavily supported by the european union. okay, uh, thank you for that. a jacket. obviously we'll talk again as i said before, it gets knocked a box across your for now though. thank you jack power in brussels or

the out of it as well. the full, the opposition time to that and wonder gonzales says he will continue. he's fine for democracy in exile despite leaving the country to seek assignment in spain. now, mr. gonzales, i flew to the spanish capital madrid over the weekend after defendants by the no fontes issued an arrest warrant issued an arrest warrant for him of the claims of think one, july's disputed presidential election. president nicholas my daughter was declared the winner of that vote. despite the opposition, say it had evidence that gonzales won. it's true through some of this was a john polk, and he can move it shoes and associate professor of political science of the us naval academy where he focuses on latin american politics including 1st white and welcome to the very glad to happy with us. so and wonder gonzales and wrote today that he left to build a new stage for venice white glove and he called for dialogue. what do you think he

wants? i'm going to be able to get it from spain or indeed from anyone else outside venezuela as well. well gonzalez's, i think there a reasonable decision to flee venezuela for the safety of, of spain and certainly is a reflection of fears for his own safety in venezuela. and i think, you know, probably dashes the hopes of the opposition very sadly. right? it, is it deflates a chances for a democratic transition in the country. upon his arrival in madrid, he said that he was confident that is, that we meaning the opposition would continue the fight to achieve freedom and the recovery of democracy in venezuela. that probably means rallying foreign governments defend as well as cause. but there was already a full opposition government worth of leaders living ended in exile in the us of

spain. and i think this leaves them with really limited options. the opposition itself kind of recognize this with a statement that that had sent out a basically lamenting the difficult decision for him to seek asylum. and they said in court underscores the grave reality of state terrorism faced by those of us who defend the people's will open these native maria cleanup machado. she's still in hiding, but says she will stay in the country to continue the struggle and it's her arrest . just a matter of time it may well be she looks increasingly vulnerable as the leading voice of the opposition within venezuela. i think she cut the lonely figure right now. she remains under criminal investigation for the same a legit defenses that were used to justify the arrest warrant against gonzalez. and i do think it's highly possible she will be targeted with arrest forcing her to decide whether to remain in venezuela or fleet. nope,

she is also said on social media that she would not follow gonzalez into anxiety name, right. i think, but she may, she may have reinforced by the way it's, it's interesting to speculate on whether it's how we fight or she could actually be in hiding in the country of writing inside venezuela and gonzales operating outside. certainly, i mean there a team for sure it's worth remembering that you know, gonzalez is a placeholder candidate for for machado after my doodle and the government band, her from running are in band for initial replacement, from wearing for office. and again, he's, he's a 75 year old, formerly retired diplomat. and so i think that even with him, a broad, the real mobilizing force within the opposition remains my child. and she,

you know, she, she will plan outsized role in deciding the face of the opposition at this time, i think much more so than gonzalez and having him a abroad at this moment. know what, acknowledging that at the same time. yeah. i could just click what i'll do it. i was like a grip on power within the country's economy, the droppings to be like 80 percent of. okay. and she's in pilot now. but how, how type is that grip? i think it's probably the strongest. it's been since at least the elections on july 28th. he retains the loyalty of the military high command, which is absolutely essential for his survival. and he controls the vast array of state institutions and that has allowed him to overcome several crises over the past decade. especially in 2019 right. gonzalez gonzales has ex though right now is the best possible outcome for my daughter as well. right. he avoids the turmoil that would've been triggered by imprisoning one side as well simultaneously

removing the only opposition politician who could claim a democratic mandate to replace him as a token. no, sir, that's uh so clearly. so they want to keep an eye on a life in america expo said john poker acumen, which a good talking to you. thank you or not today you can follow out. same on social media at cdw used lasers headlines around the clock . of course the www dot com or on the d. w asked for an item for the entire team on today. suspending off of your day with us. have a good the

eco africa to preserve, but randy's dwindling nature reserves. conservationists have turned ariel serving, sending these technology is crucial if we want to achieve sustainable results with the court sufficient. let's see how local communities are rescuing their for us to save the environment and promote tourism. africa. next, on d, w. 3 distinct estimate groups. 3 religion, one divided states,

a fragile peace in bosnia and herzegovina. the multi ethnic bolton state wants to join the fonts, national publications, and to prevent this false, mia, and how in 45 minutes on d, w, the, the city is highly citizenship. so i'm saying in still place, telling the 32000000 people live here, many of them i understand it. so it has so many people. there must be a way to do business here though, because of my parents wanted me to become a civil servant, but i didn't like the idea of getting such an old fashioned job as being stuck with

a dream coming through making money. having a sun when not, feels injunction stuff, september 19th on d w. the humans have been funding for over 10000. he is and the industry has seen many revolutions right now. of course it is being completely transformed by technology. and i tools not only increase productivity and efficiency, they can also be useful. cool. so they shouldn't purposes. i am central to homes that nobody will ride to income for that. you've done that. and of course jane. but .