the young people clearly have the solution. the future is 77 percent. every weekend on dw, the violence of more violence and no end in sight. a new phase of the war is being declared by both israel and has the people on both sides are getting a taste of what that looks and feels like. rockets and bones ran down on both sides . hundreds already died 11 and tens of thousands of civilians fled south of the country, heading north as the ones with fence for as wells and talk on that come on this on fighters. rigging, pages with explosives is really allegedly killed around a 1000, an engine. and many more that way has been lost once it shows and gaza before it

stops 5 engvall codes into israel until the ve fonts has by attacking has block position. so then thousands of his various can return to the homes of the north without being targeted by has but as roxanne's wheels, israel versus has blocked. we'll that'd be all 11 and the welcome to to the point of introduce you to my panel today. brought it up on me is a journalist from lebanon, christine health. i'm a journalist unless on the middle east and done, it was done by a journalist, an expert from at least a daily newspaper defense here in germany, a little while come to all of you. of course,

let's start with you. it is so 11 and becoming the new gaza. well, although some of the pictures that we see might remind us of what's going on. you guys are, you cannot compare the situation. i mean, live on is not the siege, but this way the bundle does not occupied by is right. and if i is way so and you cannot completely say the tomas and his phone all the same as well as a lot a lot more stronger than homeless is. so it's not as if we are heading to a situation similar to gaza. but gaza is a club life in a way for israel kent, it's still kind of leveling to become a similar problem. well, i think that could be something similar problems, but that depends on how is relax. now, what we're hearing these days is that as well as preparing for ground defensive and loving them, i'm not quite sure this is really an eminence scenario, but it's is a possibility. and if it is a little goes in that direction,

it's might find itself in a clock maya and not been on because that scenario is really so which is moving in and a starting i to really wolf at on these trips. that's what has been a lot has been preparing for during the past. yes, that's what physical is looking for. well, he to the, for many lebanese, this already feels like, like, well, what will be the difference? will it make a difference? i mean, of course it was, can always get much worse, but at the moment, do right, i mean nobody's calling to fill out war, but it is a flat war, i mean, and one day we, so that's, so monday, when it's available, embody the south of lebanon saying that it's attacking gab, artillery, you know, of his vala and other places of lebanon. we, so over 500 people dying. that's and one day and this is, you know, we haven't seen that at 11 and 40 years since the end of the civil war in the 1990

. this is my as of amount of casualties to fall in one day. um. so yeah, for a lot of live in use, it does feel war. we've seen that a piece of pictures of this whole x or this of people from the south. hundreds of thousands of people are leaving their homes going to where i mean they don't have shelters. like and, and is the visitor and they don't have anyone else you know, to go to like in his room as well. but just going a lot of them up, you know, setting up the tense on the streets and sleeping on the streets. and also the difference is we don't have a space 11 in strong states that can afford, you know, give them i've done that gives of open some schools to them. and this means that they have to delay the opening of the schools. kids were supposed to go back to school this week, so it's really, it's whole humanitarian disaster and not just for the people in the south for flooding and has a ripple effect that goes through all. exactly. i mean, a lot of those, uh, you know, the population, the, the, she have populations self government is now going to scenarios on christian areas.

and this is already created some extensions between the people because, you know, i'm like in the 2006 where a lot of lebanese were showing support extreme support to the people in the south. now it's really not the same anymore. and maybe this one will apparel on because i feel that is what it is as they did in gauze, is only for seeing a military solution without really having a political strategy behind it. so this is one big parent a little bit this government of prime minister in the town was really aiming at finishing with their enemies on the military with military means which is not paying off because organizations like homeless as well on not to be finished off only a military that needs to be a political strategy to deal with them. so that's one big problem that i would see were gonna come to the difference between these, these 2 organizations in a moment. but 1st the, when i have a closer look at has belie state within the states, including social welfare and the health system. oh is it just a total organization?

the policy of friends in k ron has with off fits both descriptions day after the hamas turbo tax and the 7th of october, as well as tom's at 5 and walk us on it as well. but one of his has but really so let's have a closer look. the so called positive gold was founded in 11 on in 1982 by a group of she clucks to fight against israel's invasion. today, his bullet also has seats in the lebanese parliament and functions as a defective government and parts of the country running schools and hospitals. his brother stated goals remained the destruction of his route and the expulsion of western powers. from 11 on his bony receives hundreds of millions of dollars yearly from iran, which also supports the organization with training and weapons. many experts say that his bullet is one of the most heavily armed militant groups and the weld. according to is rarely estimates the group has around $150000.00 bro kits. and it

could have as many as 100000 scientists vouchers least is what has bought a lead to have some a strong claims. experts have estimated the number is low. how much has this bullet been? we can get question i'd like to pass on directly. how much, how we could is, is not a bit a good question when we are seeing has been a lot firing rockets at israel and even threatening as little population centers such as to the be yesterday with one messiah. but to me, that still doesn't indicate that his bullet is at its full capacity. because these rockets launches back something they have been preparing for years like something you only need to push a button for. the question really is how much did the pedro attacks and the walkie talkie attacks of last week? how much have they actually failed to come on?

structures with in his folder this is watch remains to be seen. i think they could have fram, this come on, structures considerably. think about 3000 the techs that were conducted through page a on voltage ok explosions. think of an organization. well, probably about 20000 people are actually fighting. so 322-0000. that's a considerable damage. these pedro attacks, i'd like to talk about them. there was some dispute about whether they was strictly speaking legal as well. it's ongoing things and legal dispute internationally. i mean, is right in rightfully claims that it was very targeted and in comparison to any major rocket fire or tags like they did in gauze or they didn't had hits too many civilians. and it was a targeted attack against his bullet fighters interest by members. at the same time, these been of weapons be the communication devices that could be anywhere. it could

be in the supermarket and hospitals at home at the living room of the yes. so the point is that the idea of these attacks was at the same time attacking and targeting his ball at the same time is by creating a state of turmoil. and i think people in the know they few really terrorized by whatever critics do next. i mean, this feeling is now being felt by a lot of people invite the civilian population at the same time. and we have to, i was a little bit shocked by the discourse, especially in germany because people would really celebrate these attacks of, you know, so smart and surgical and saying that, you know, whoever carries the page or is a legitimate target. and i would argue that, you know, nurse or a teacher and one of the schools or hospitals would not be in the didn't the target . so we have 2 different said, it was well calculated that would be civilian casualties. so this is why it's disputed international. i mean, what are you hearing a how we can the is has,

has it has but right now by these attacks and is this feeling of terror? i really primary thing society living. i don't know if it's we can to because um, as then you just said they still have a big costs and a lot of buckets of missiles of you know that they haven't used yet. i mean, they tried a couple of days ago to, to one of them to tell of eve and you know, that they didn't get there. but uh, they still do have a lot of what's induced that they can use. but i think the major issue now as well as a, is a trust issue, a trust within the husband law itself for the organization itself. because it's obviously been infiltrated on a fairly high level of visit, or at least have to mazda of the amount of information on his by lot. that means after the pages attack and the work that they targeted a blonds, it leads to say, lead to nest of hezbollah. that's and they can one of their, you know, you know, very importantly, those, okay, they did attack them, they did have those information and they did attack them in a building that was for the kids and for the other civilians at. but this also

shows that is willing to go that far as is does not care to, but the civilian casualties and is really going after his bottle of so now as well as also has a trust trust within its own members, but also needs to the game that trust with his own people because i don't know if that people still trust them anymore. i mean has well as always to what that people uh best do me purchase. uh, best supporters, the shop population in da here in the south of the route and also in the south 11. and they've always told them we'd here to support you. you know, we can go back to homes after the 2006 for a full them. if i knew that this is was going to cause oldest destruction, i wouldn't have taken kids enough. those kids is a, the soldiers. and since then the people so that they're going to go to the south city but of the houses and be safe. but we discover that this is not sooner what's happening and he can even also, i mean, we ever heard of the report. the hezbollah has boost hospitals,

but those hospitals went even enough to look after that was when to just from the pages attack. i mean, they were bringing the, the people what into 2 of the hospital. so that might have condemned adversity hospice and they lived. and the other hospitals and christian areas and so on, so or not as well or needs to, i don't know what it needs to do, but it does definitely has a trust issue amongst its supporter and definitely amongst etc. and the organization then. absolutely, i mean, all of the only thing i would add to that is uh, the bombing of dia, the very quota of a root, which is his ballade stronghold. when i talk to people close to his on the, in the past few months, asking them what would be the red line flexible. they all told me the red line will be if this will buttons dalia. that will be a moment where was his below will be forced up by the she outrage of its members

to respond in full force. and that's not what we see at the moment, as well as not using its full force and responds instead. also, when a check good was estimated. so, you know, the 1st time i don't think leaders that think it seems assassinated and also has bulletin responds, does not mean that you can argue that it on its main sponsor and create or doesn't want to, to respond to, you know, in a way that they will bring the whole region to war, but this is making his follow definitely lose trust amongst us on support assembly with saying the red line moving upwards again and again. and again, that entails the risk off of things spiraling out of control at some point. the same time, all these leaders can be replaced and all the fighters can be replaced. the question is how effective the strategy being took on the goal, me to terminate against a full while i really tries to connect the whole fight. now to goes on to the war and gather that it says has to and for them to stop sending rockets while at the same time was the is what you think of them is trying to do is to disconnect the 2

subjects when they're really trying to do is to put so much pressure on his bullet for them to re finally to withdraw to north of the tiny river 30 kilometers away from the border by only giving them you know, this the stop something beautiful and stuffing the, the hiring this, bringing it in this position to no longer act for a demand, the ceasefire for guys, which is this is really the calculation because it wasn't, wasn't it? and how wants is really wants to finish off. he wants to stop this switch from the north, no matter what's going on. because he wants to separate the 2 issues, and this is exactly what his bullet has been trying to avoid. they want to connect it because it's the a fight. i mean, they're saying it's kind of that fight it trying to make it like this, i think, is well controlling the timing, at least with these pedro attacks and has block now is on the back foot and has to react. so is, is this a, a rehabilitation of the security forces of the as well and be, is this

a successful from the, is really point of view, a successful strategy? well, that's a very interesting point, and that's also a point where i would slightly so with the lead um there are reports as wanting a very plausible report to me, which might be based on is really intelligence sources which came out drive off to the pedro attacks which basically said these pedro attacks and multi toki attacks we're actually devised, i'm planned for the case of an all out will to be the 1st step in them all out will in order to destroy the communications and come on structures of principal law. we didn't actually want to do with now, but we, we have forced to do it because of these preparations. we're close to b a is. it's called the, it's by his bulk. and that's why we had to do it now. and i think that's more, less credible because a, it is an excellent preparation for

a phone imminent war. but we're not seeing the israel leading this war in full force. now this is not the foot force, $500.00 is dying, get one, no full full and dumping killing civilians. i was telling you, you know, the place where the best noble as old a flat is most. unfortunately, i have to say it is not the worst thing that could happen. it is against the national. no, it was. but we could also see carpet bombings and the yeah, we could see the houses in the south. uh, absolutely. so you know what kinda happened and i'm not saying that what is happening now is good. but i think it's not yet the worst case scenario that we see . and those pedro attacks where preparation for the worst case scenarios. so yes, as well as trying to instrumental law and stuff as a victory for its own security operators whose ability has been called into question likely. um,

but i'm not sure as hell calculated that stuff. step of escalation is an i think. and then i'll be send it and then i'll be finished. i think the biggest problem on the is really side here is that they're moving closer to an extremely dangerous and brutal without actually having a plan. and then it will actually go in a medium run. i think so the, the extra strategy is not so much the problem that in here i would differ with you, i think in 11 and there is a clear goal that can hardly be achieved with um, with a political means that as well. a, a b young, the imminent question of israel, the citizens moving back into the north of the country. and in order to facilitate that and make that possible to move his ball away from the boulder, i think the more essential the security interest of is a visa v. as a butler is destroying it's miss are a couple ability. well, this is mold in the cool security dilemma of the region.

it's, excuse me for interrupting that very interesting discussion, but let's have a look at the other side. let's have a look at these. well, uh for a moment because of israel, the reason escalation does create a dangerous a 2nd front in his fight against as many sworn enemies. but as well seems oblivious to the risk even seems to be seeking the confrontation at all costs. the explosives planted in his the members pages and rule control keys, presumably by is rarely intelligence followed by extensive strikes. it seems that israel has entered a new phase and its conflict with his paula prime minister. and it's an jo has declared that the god of the will is to say for tenants is randy residence, $60000.00. his riley's have had to leave the homes. israel wants to force his paula to withdrawal from the border areas to the north side of the village. county river

let me show that to those who have not yet understood. phil, i want to clarify is rose policy and we do not wait for threats. we anticipate it any way in any arena. at any time. we eliminate senior officials, we eliminate terrorism. we eliminate missiles and there's more to come down on it to you. but it's still unclear whether the strategy will walk to the people in the countries know of the intensification of the conflict as having far reaching consequences. street serenity and hospitals have been evacuated and yet it isn't such an issue as vulnerable given despite the heavy blows dealt with leadership. could 11 also be facing the threat to the ground? defensive yeah, let's pick a broadband of can this whole operation be successful with the other one offensive? well, the ground defensive as something that the now in the past always wants to avoid. basically looking back at the history of the occupation is available. we have to

put a professional stop living then and how they're withdrawn in 2000 was leading to a major victory for his bullet. that was basically the basic. they was celebrated to see what's going over the region. so i think it's something that they want to avoid on this. they feel they really have to go in to destroy all these military facilities in the cells, as well as waiting for the bed for that for them. it would be the fight that they have been preparing for and waiting for for a long time. so from that calculation, this would be a wrong step. the whole question is whether you can really force as bullet to not, you know, attack, they consider themselves to be defending. the been known to be a resistance movement that a part of the excess of resistance. so in the end, everything will be settled on food and diplomatic means. i mean in the end they will sit down and it will that because the question is how to implement the resolution as 17. 0 one. but forces isabella to withdrawal, who could take over in the south and live on the test is not possible because of the week lebanese government that's true. but in this facility age has the military

means you can never rein in these organizations. so the bigger picture here is that is what you is, lynn has an alternative. i would argue it had, it could have partners in the region to control it, to confront iran, which is the very back of all these fits from one. is there any point of view, but this government natania is not calculated in act as he wants to stay and how he has to do what his radical partner says ready to come in. this does miss janik ministers asked him to do, which is actually pined, garza which is annexation officer. so what he needs to do is to form a coalition with the west, with the region was country like so. the already cut of the united arab emirates, which is something that was on the table now for months, is from the bye, didn't administration. this is what everybody has been walking on. where is this? is there any government is refusing to walk down that diplomatic world? i would like to come back to what you mentioned, the lebanese government. i mean, it was only talking about has, but i, we never talking about 11 and as a, as a country and, and is government. what can the lebanese government do, or is it to,

into twined with has the, was the lebanese government at the moment as a caretaker, government, so even government, we don't have a president's. i mean, this is the major issue and 11 on the week or the state becomes the stronger has both become so on like in 2006 when you know the word is the last one month and it ended up with a better solution. 171, but we had a strong government done for us and you know, as you know, very vocal and to, as you know, the international community trusted us and we have the support of the out of countries as well as the gods countries chucked a lot of money 11 and for construction efforts, the saudis put money into the central bank to stabilize the economy of but since then a lot of this change now 11 is isolated on the, on an, at a big level because of as well as the fetus in the region since then, i mean it's interfering since smuggling in the i'm and supporting the who sees the defense media in syria. i mean, the been, you know, sided with the shot of a sudden kidding over syrian who are post of a shuttle. i said,

and this has caused, you know, a lot of people do not support has been the moment. and the fact that the lebanese governments now is the kids take of government and his week by the finish. and of course, it makes everything worse to feel like, you know, there is no one in charge of, in lebanon, and test bullet holes and has been holding, you know, the decisions of peace and war in his end, against the will of most of them. and he's at the moment, but you know, and we don't see and that's thrown it is like we have been silent, has been a lot of the use of incentives, has been the we do not want to be involved in this since the 8th of october, which is what i decided to start finding rockets with israel, despite the lives of everyone else in the country, you know, and now we're at this point and the government to specialize through the. so how can i, how can we put a stop to all this is the reason the initiative this, this joint declaration that we've just seen this week,

this step in the right direction and whether it, whether it have any effect. yeah, i think it is a step in the right direction, but this us sponsored initiative that both france the okay and also germany also pull take and, and we're actually seeing law the coverage, any reactions to that from israel, placed on the done on those rules. you on by so the concept that as well as looking for a diplomatic solution, we might not take these statements at face value, but if you know, don't need along the way she usually presents himself to the public as a finer brand to plymouth. i think it's meaningful that you be wrecked in that way . and i think the reason for that is, 1st of all that as well knows about the cost of going into old out will with a ground defensive. and secondly, i think that's like most policies in the middle east. israel would like to know who

is going to rule in the white house before the next 4 years before make jane other major pathogens and major steps, right? we have one minute left very briefly. you think this crisis and a lot more that can be avoided very briefly. i think it can be avoided and i feel is right and would have an alternative that with this government is not very viable . so i'm afraid that the whole guy's point will only come to an end when we see the results of the american electrons. it needs to stop what it started in gaza. nathaniel has to accept that he has done the work and does on the palestinians to have their own state find that they must all of the say that if this were stops, we would stop. i think it can be as a did, but does. but the security dilemma all that poses with israel on the other side, that's where we may. thank you very much to my panel. that's it for today from a to the point. if you watch sites on youtube,

please make sure to leave us. you'll comment down here in the comments section, i've got to open, the ceiling, fell in for me and the whole to the point team. thanks for the the, the

get ready for breast taking island discoveries, immediate gmc, the extraordinary place, leisure and relaxation. witness stories that won't delights of sense and guest insider tips from long time to experience the greek island and the many faces of their beauty. in 75 minutes on d. w. the

high seas. every single connection mapped out shows that you can disagree odyssey be on the board, is what makes things the way they are mapped out. navigating a changing world now on youtube cost about is off. why does that mean? because like i'm leaving the new host to join us for an exciting is to ation of everything in between. the most is a video and audio production by d w. i hope video with you and then you'll update

interfaces green the green revolution global. so listen to a whole lot of crime, it's probably up to speed is secure. subscribed to this channel. subscribe to plan is a, the frankfurt international gateway to the best connection, solstio, road and radio. located in the heart of europe, you are connected to the world experience outstanding shopping and dining offers. enjoying our services be our guest at frankfurt and board. cd managed by front bought the

this is dw news life from the president of united states of ukraine being to discuss how, how's it sound the tides, the war against russia's nations saw the music landscape presents the circle victory planned to jo, 5 of the white house us the president of promises to speed results as the key of declaring that russia will not prevail. also on the program. israel down place, talk of a cease fire with has fall out and launches a new wave of task strikes against by roots and 5 minutes. and then you made this and yahoo tells the administrator to keep fighting a full full product. and.