to see the world, the subscribe. now to dw documentary, the violence of more violence and no end in sight. a new phase of the war is being declared by both israel and has the people on both sides are getting a taste of what that looks and feels like. rockets and bones ran down on both sides . hundreds already died. 11 in tens of thousands of civilians fled south of the country, heading north as well. once vent. so as wells and target on that come on this on fighters. rigging, pages with explosives is really allegedly killed around a 1000, an engine, and many more that way. as the last ones have chosen gaza before it stops 5 and rockets into israel until the v fonts has by talking has block position. so then

thousands of his various can return to the homes of the north without being targeted by has. but as roxanne's, we are israel versus has blocked. will that be all 11. welcome to to the point of introduce you to my panel today. bugging it up on me is a journalist from lebanon christian health. i'm a journalist at alice on the middle east and daniel doing. busy journalist and export for middle east, a daily newspaper, defense here in germany. a little while come to all of you. of course, let's start with you. it is so 11 and becoming the new gaza. well,

although some of the pictures that we see might remind us of what's going on, you guys are, you cannot compare the situation. i mean, live on is not the siege, but this way. the one on there's not occupied by is right. and if i is way, so you cannot completely say the tomas and his ball on the same as well as a lot a lot more stronger than homos is. so it's not as if we are heading to a situation similar to gaza. but gaza is a club life in a way for israel kent, it's still kind of leveling to become a similar problem. well, i think that could be something similar problems, but that depends on how is relax. now, what we're hearing these days is that as well as preparing for ground defensive and loving them, i'm not quite sure this is really an imminent scenario, but it's is a possibility. and if it is a little goes in that direction, it's might find itself in the clock, maya, and not been on,

because that scenario is really so, which is moving in and a starting. i do really wolf at on these trips. that swats has been a lot has been preparing for during the past. yes, that's wolf, as well as looking for. well, he to the, for many lebanese, this already feels like, like, well, what will be the difference? will it make a difference? i mean, of course it will, can always get much worse, but at the moment do right, i mean nobody's calling to fill out water, but it isn't for that war. i mean, and one day we saw that on monday, when it had been by the south of lebanon, saying that it's a talking get off, tillery, uh, you know, of his buttons and other places of lebanon. we so over 500 people dying that's and one day and this is, you know, we haven't seen that and 11 and 40 years since the end of the civil war in the 1990 . this is a much as of the amount of casualties to fall and one day um, so yeah,

for a lot of live in use, it does feel we're, we've seen that a piece of pictures of this whole x or this of people from the south. hundreds of thousands of people are leaving their homes, going to where i mean they don't have shelters like in, in the visitor, and they don't have anyone else you know, to go to like in his room as well. that just going a lot of them up. you know, setting up the tense on the streets and sleeping on the streets. and also the difference is we don't have a space 11 and strong states that can afford, you know, give them i've done at this the open some schools to them. and this means that they have to delay the opening of the schools. kids were supposed to go back to school this week. so it's really, it's whole humanitarian disaster and not just for the people of the south, for flooding and has a ripple effect that go through all. exactly. i mean, a lot of those and you know, the population, the, the, she helpful relations self government is now going to scenarios in christian areas . and this is already created some extensions between the people because you know,

i'm like in the 2006 where a lot of what i've been use with showing support extreme support to the people of the south. now, it's really not the same anymore, and maybe there's one more apparel on because i feel that is what it is as they did in gauze, is only for seeing a military solution without really having a political strategy behind it. so this is one big parent a little bit this government of probably me to send it to now is really aiming at finishing with their enemies on the military. the military means which is not paying off because organizations like homeless as well. i'm not to be finished off, only really tell me that needs to be a political strategy to deal with them. so that's one big pedal that i would see. we're gonna come to the difference between these, these 2 organizations in a moment. but 1st, the one i have a closer look at has will live state within as states, including social welfare and a health system. oh, is it just a total organization policy, friends and k. ron has with off fits both descriptions day after the hamas turbo

tax and the 7th of october, as well as the opposite 5 and walk us on it as well. but one of these has below oh really? so let's have a closer look. the so called positive gold was founded in 11 on in 1982 by a group of she clucks to fight against israel's invasion today. his bullet also has seats in the lebanese parliament and functions as a defective government, and parts of the country running schools and hospitals. his brother stated goals remained the destruction of his route and the expulsion of western powers from lebanon. his brother receives hundreds of millions of dollars yearly from iran, which also supports the organization with training and weapons. many experts say that his bullet is one of the most heavily armed militant groups and the weld. according to is rarely estimates the group has around $150000.00 bro kits. and it could have as many as 100000 find to is that at least as what has bought

a lead to have some, a strong claims. experts have estimated the number is low. how much has this bullet been weakened? yeah, a question i'd like to pass on directly how much, how we could is just a bit. a good question when we are seeing has been a lot firing rockets at israel and even threatening as well. population centers such as to be yesterday with one messiah. but to me, that still doesn't indicate that has a bullet as it's full capacity. because these rockets launches back to something they have been preparing for years like something you only need to push a button for. the question really is how much did the pedro attacks and the walkie talkie attacks of last week? how much have they actually failed to come on? structures within his butler, this is watch remains to be seen. i think they could have fram,

please come on. structures considerably. think about $3000.00 the tax laps. were conducted through page on voltage ok, explosions. think of an organization. well, probably about 20000 people are actually fighting. so 322-0000. that's a considerable damage these pager attacks. i'd like to talk about them. there was some dispute about whether they was strictly speaking legal as well. it's ongoing things and legal dispute internationally, i mean is right in rightfully claims that it was very targeted and in comparison to any major rocket fire or tax like that. and guys that they didn't had hits too many civilians and it was a targeted attack against just bullet fighters interest by members. at the same time, these been on the weapons, the, the communication devices that could be anywhere, could be in the supermarket and hospitals at home at the living room of these

people, things isn't yes. so the point is that the idea of these attacks was at the same time attacking and targeting his ball at the same time as by creating a state of taro. and i think people in the know they feel really terrorized by whatever critics do next. i mean, this feeling is now being felt by a lot of people invite the civilian population at the same time. and we have to, i was a little to talk by the discourse, especially in germany because people would really celebrate these attacks, as you know, um, so smart and surgical and saying that, you know, whoever carries the page or is a legitimate target. and i would argue that, you know, nurse or a teacher and one of the schools or hospitals would not be in the didn't the target . so we have 2 different said, it was well calculated that would be civilian casualties. so this is why it's disputed international. i mean, what are you hearing a how we can, is, has, has it has brought now by these attacks and it's this feeling of terror. i really

premier agent society level. i don't know if it's we can to because um, as then you just said they still have a big costs and a lot of buckets of missiles of you know that they haven't used yet. i mean, they tried a couple of days ago to, to one of them to tell of eve and, you know, they didn't get the but uh, they still do have a lot of what induced that they can use. but i think the major issue now as well as a, is a trust issue, a trust within the husband law itself, the organization itself, because it's obviously been infiltrated on a fairly high level of visit, or at least have to mazda of the amount of information on his by lot, that means after the pages attack and the work still kept that they targeted a blonds. it leads to say lead to nest of hezbollah. that's. and they can one of their, you know, you know, very importantly, those, okay, they did attack them, they did have those information and they did attack them in a building that was for the kids and for the other civilians at. but this also

shows that is willing to go that far as it does not care to, but the civilian casualties and is really going after his bottle of so now as well as also has a trust trust within its own members, but also needs to the game that trust with his own people because i don't know if that people still trust them anymore. i mean as well as always to what that people uh best do me purchase. uh, best supporters, the shall population and da here in the south of the route and also in the south 11 . and they've always told them we'd here to support you. you know, we can go back to homes after the 2006 for a full them. if i knew that this is was going to cause oldest destruction, i wouldn't have taken kids enough. those kids is a, the soldiers. and since then the people so that they're going to go to the south city but of the houses and be safe. but we discovered that this is not so you know what's happening and he can even also. i mean we've heard that before. the hezbollah has boots hospitals, but those hospitals went even enough to look after that was when did this from the

pages attack? i mean, they were bringing the, the people what into 2 of the hospital so that metacognitive, varsity alls present and they lived and the other hospitals and christian areas and so on. so or not as well or needs to, i don't know what it needs to do, but it does definitely has a trust issue amongst its supporter and definitely amongst etc. and the organization then. absolutely, i mean, all of the only thing i would uh after that is uh, the bombing of dia, the very quota of a root, which is his ballade stronghold. when i talk to people close to his on the, in the past few months, asking them what would be the red line flexible. they all told me the red line will be if this will bottoms dalia. that will be a moment where was his below will be forced up by the she a outrage of its members to respond in full force. and that's not what we see

at the moment, as well as not using its full force in response instead. also, when a check good was estimated the, you know, the 1st target on think leaders that the streams assessing data and also his bullet doesn't respond to this. i mean, you can argue that it on its main sponsor and create or doesn't want to, to respond to, you know, in a way that they will bring the whole region to war. but this is making has been allowed, definitely lose trust amongst us on support assembly with saying the red line moving upwards again and again and again. and that entails the risk off of things spiraling out of control at some point. the same time. all these leaders can be replaced and all the fighters can be replaced. the question is how effective the strategy be to going to go me to terminate against a full? well, i really tries to connect the whole fight now to goes on to war and gather that it says has to and for them to stop sending rockets while is the same time was the is what you think of them is trying to do is to disconnect the 2 subjects, well they're really trying to do is to put so much pressure on his bullet for them

to re finally to withdraw to north of the tiny river 30 kilometers away from the border. by only giving them you know, this the stump, something beautiful and stuffing the, the hiring this, bringing it in this position to no longer act for a demand. the ceasefire for guys which is this is really the calculation because it wasn't it. i now want this really wants to finish off. he wants to stop this flight from the north, no matter what's going on, because he wants to separate the 2 issues. and this is exactly what his bullet has been trying to avoid. they want to connect it because it's they a fight. i mean, they're saying it's kind of that fight it twice to make it like this, i think, is well controlling the timing, at least with these pedro attacks and, and has blog now is on the back foot and has to react. so is, is this a, a rehabilitation of the security forces of the as well and be, is this a successful from the, is really point of view, a successful strategy?

well, that's a very interesting point, and that's also a point where i would slightly so with the lead um there are reports as wanting a very plausible report to me, which might be based on those really intelligence sources which came out right off to the pedro attacks which basically said these pedro attack some multi toki attacks will actually devise the implant for the case of an all out will to be the 1st step in them all out will in order to destroy the communications that come on structure. as a principle, we didn't actually want to do with now, but we were forced to do it because of these preparations were close to be a. does this call the it's by his button? and that's why we had to do it now. and i think that's more, less credible because a, it is an excellent preparation for a phone imminent war. but we're not seeing the israel leading this war in full

force. now this is not the foot force, 500 is dying, get one, no full full and dumping, killing civilians as telling us you know, the place where the best trouble as old as lot is most. unfortunately, i have to say it is not the worst thing that could happen. it is a good sense and that's, you know, it was, but we could also see carpet bombings and the, yeah, we could see the dentist also say the south. uh, absolutely. so you know what kinda happened and i'm not saying that what is happening now is good. but i think it's not yet the worst case scenario that we see . and those pedro attacks where preparation for the worst case scenarios. so yes, as well as trying to instrumental law and stuff as a victory for its own security operators whose ability has been called into question likely. um, but i'm not sure as how i calculated that stuff. step of escalation is an i think,

and then i'll be sending, and then i'll be finished. and i think the biggest problem on the is really side here is that they're moving closer to an extremely dangerous and brutal without actually having a plan. and then it will actually go in a medium run, i think so the, the extra strategy is not so much the problem that in here i would differ with you . i think in lebanon, there is a clear goal that can hardly be achieved with um, with a political means that as well. a, a be young, the imminent question of israel, the citizens moving back into the north of the country. and in order to facilitate that and make that possible to move his ball away from the boulder, i think the more essential the security interest of is a visa v. as a butler is destroying it's miss are a couple ability. well, this is mold in the cool security dilemma of the region.

it's, excuse me for interrupting that very interesting discussion, but let's have a look at the other side. let's have a look at these well for a moment because of israel. the reason escalation does create a dangerous a 2nd front in its fight against as many sworn enemies, but as well seems oblivious to the risk even seems to be seeking the confrontation at all costs. the explosives planted in his bundle members pages and rookie true keys, presumably by is ready intelligence, followed by extensive strikes. it seems that israel has entered a new phase and its conflict with his bala. prime minister. netanyahu has declared that the god of the will is the safe for tenants is ready residence. 60000 israelis have had to leave the homes. israel wants to force his paula to withdrawal from the border areas to the north side of the village county river. let me show that to those who have not yet understood. phil,

i want to clarify is rose policy and we do not wait for threats. we anticipate it any way in any arena. at any time we eliminate senior officials, we eliminate terrorism, we eliminate missiles, and there's more to come down on it to you. but it's still unclear whether the strategy will walk to the people in the countries know of the intensification of the conflict as having far reaching consequences. street, serenity and hospitals have been evacuated and yet it isn't such. and if his father were given, despite the heavy blows dealt to its leadership, could 11 also be facing the threat to the ground? defensive yeah, let's pick a broadband of can this whole operation be successful with the other one offensive? well, the ground defensive as something that the now in the past always one is to avoid basically looking back at the history of the occupation is available. we have to put occupations solved living then, and how they're withdrawn in 2000 was leading to

a major victory for his bullet. that was basically the basic. they was celebrated to see what's going over the region. so i think it's something that they want to avoid. unless they feel they really have to go in to destroy all these military facilities in the south, as well as waiting for the bed for that for them, it would be the fight that they have been preparing for and waiting for for a long time. so from that calculation, this would be a wrong step. the whole question is whether you can really force as well to not, you know, attack, they consider themselves to be defending liberal, non, to be a resistance movement. they are part of the excess of resistance. so in the end, everything will be settled on food and diplomatic means, i mean, and then they will sit down and it will be requesting this how to implement the resolution as 17. 0 one. but it forces isabella to withdrawal, who could take over in the south and live on this has, is not possible because of a weak lebanese government that's true. but in this facility interests the military means you can never rein in these organizations. so the bigger picture here is that

is what it is when it has an alternative. i would argue it had, it could have partners in the region to control and to confront iran, which is the very back of all these fits from one. is there any point of view, but this government natania is not calculated and act as he wants to stay in power? he has to do what his radical partner says ready to come in. this does miss janik ministers asked him to do, which is actually pined garza, we're just annexation of us. so what he needs to do is to form a coalition with the west, with the region, with countries like saudi arabia, cutoff, the united arab emirates, which is something that was on the table now for months, is from the biden administration. this is what everybody has been working on, whereas this is where any government is refusing to walk down that diplomatic world . i would like to come back to what you mentioned, the lebanese government. i mean, it was only talking about has, but i, we never talking about 11 and as a, as a country and, and is government. what can the lebanese government do, or is it to into twined with hospital?

was the lebanese government at the moment. as a caretaker, government, even government, we don't have a president's. i mean, this is the major issue. and 11 on the week of the states becomes the stronger his bottom up become so on like in 2006. when you know the word is the last one month and ended up with a better solution. 171. but we had strong government done for us and, you know, as you know, very vocal and to, as you know, the international community trusted us and we have the support of the out of countries as well as the gods countries chucked a lot of money 11 and for construction efforts, the saudis put money in the central bank to stop allows the economy a. but since then, a lot of this change now let them in isolated on the, on an, at a big level because of as well as the fetus in the region. since then, i mean it's interfering since smuggling them and supporting the who sees the defense mainly in syria. i mean, they've been, you know, sided with the shadow of a sudden kidding over syrian who are post of a shuttle. i said, and this has caused, you know,

a lot of the people to not support has been the moment. and the fact that the lebanese governments now is the kids take of government and his week by the finish . and of course, it makes everything worse to feel like, you know, there is no one in charge of lebanon and test bullet holes and has been holding, you know, the decisions of peace and war in his end, against the will of most of that up in use at the moment, but you know, and we don't see and that's thrown it is like we have been telling test, a lot of the news have been fedex has been the we do not want to be involved in this since the 8th of october, which is what i decided to start finding rockets with israel, despite the lives of everyone else in the country. you know, i'm a, now we're at this point and the government to specialize through this. so how can i, how can we put a stop to all this is the reason of the initiative this, this joint declaration that we've just seen this week, a step in the right direction and will it, will it have any effect? yeah, i think it is a step in the right direction. this

u. s. sponsored initiative that both france of the okay and also germany also pull take and, and we're actually seeing why the coverage, any reactions to that from israel, placed on the, the known as roles you, i'm by. so the concept that as well as looking for a diplomatic solution, we might not take these statements at face value, but if you know, don't need them on the way she usually presents himself to the public as a finer brand to plymouth. i think it's meaningful that you react in that way. and i think the reason for that is 1st of all that as well knows about the cost of going into old out what wasn't ground defensive. and secondly, i think that's like most policies in the middle east. israel would like to know who is going to room in the white house before the next 4 years before make jaden other

making sure pathogens and major steps, right. we have one minute left very briefly, you think this crisis and a lot more that can be avoided very briefly. i think it can be avoided and i feel is right. it would have an alternative that with this government is not very viable . so i'm afraid that the whole guy's point will only come to an end when we see the results of the american electron and is to stop what it started in gaza. that's anyhow, has to accept that he has done the work and does on the palestinians to have their own state find that they must all of the say that if this war stops, we will stop. i think it can be of the others. but the security dilemma spell that poses with israel on the other side that will remain. thank you very much to my panel. that's it for today from a to the point. if you watch sites on youtube, please make sure to leave us. you'll comment down here in the comments section,

i've got to open the ceiling, fell in for me and the whole to the point team. thanks for the the, the,

into the conflicts own with sim sebastian. as the warning ukraine brings ever more death and destruction. key european officials fail moscow is now preparing for contact with the west. i guess this week goes along with that view. these tougher roofing heads of his phone using television service. but he still believes russia to lose conflict the place in 30 minutes on the w to the point. strong opinions, clear position. international perspective. striking accounts of striking know,

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this is the news, live from berlin. presidents of us and ukraine, meet to discuss how to turn the tide in the war against russia. vladimir zalesky presents his so called plan for victory, joe biden, at the white house. us president promises speed resources to keep and declares that russia will not prevail. also on our program for attain helene strengthens to a dangerous category for storm. as it bears down on the us state of florida forecast, there's more to potentially record breaking storm searches and inland flooding. the .