horsepower the, it's time for the mobo revolution on the violence of more violence and no end inside a new phase of the war is being declared by both israel and has the people on both sides are getting a taste of what that looks and feels like rockets and bones ran down on both sides . hundreds already died. 11 in tens of thousands of civilians fled south of the country, heading north as well uh once with vents for as wells and talks. will that come on this on fighters? rigging, pages with explosives is really allegedly killed around a 1000, an engine, and many more that way. as bloss,

once it froze and gaza before it stops 5. and while goods into israel, until the v fonts is by attacking has block positions. so then thousands of his various can return to the homes of the north without being targeted by has but as rocky, this wheels israel versus has blocked. we'll, that'd be all 11 and the welcome to, to the point of introduce you to my panel today. brought up on me is a journalist from 11 and kristin help. i'm a journalist, an analyst on the middle east. and daniel, done by a journalist and expert for them, at least at the daily newspaper defense here in germany. a little welcome to all of you. of course, let's start with you. it is so 11 and becoming

a new gaza. well, all those, some of the pictures that we see might remind us of what's going on. you guys are, you cannot compare the situation. i mean, live on is not the seats, but this way, the bundle does not occupied by is right. and it, by his way, so you cannot completely say the time off and just the same as well as a lot a lot more stronger than homeless is. so it's not as if we are heading to a situation similar to god's them. but god is a corporate life in a way for as well can. it's still kind of loving to become a similar problem. well, i think that could be some similar problems, but that depends on how is relax. now, what we're hearing these days is that as well as preparing for ground defense of 11 i'm, i'm not quite sure this is really an eminence scenario, but it's is a possibility. and if it is a little goes in that direction,

it's might find itself in the clock maya, and not been on, because that scenario is really so, which is moving in and a starting. i really will fit on these trips that swats his block has been preparing for during the past. yes, that's wolf, as well as looking for. well, he to the, for many live in these, this already feels like, like, well, what will be the difference? will it make a difference? i mean, of course it will, can always get much worse, but at the moment too, right? i mean nobody's calling to fill out war, but it isn't for that war. i mean, and one day we, so that's, so monday, when it's available, embody the self lebanon, saying that it's a talking. good. ok, tillery, uh, you know, of his buttons and other places of lebanon. we so over 500 people dying that's and one day and this is, you know, we haven't seen that at 11 am for years since the end of the civil war in the 1990

. this is a much as of amount of casualties to fall. and one day, um, so yeah, for a lot of live in use, it does feel, or we seen that a piece of pictures of this whole x or this of people from the south. hundreds of thousands of people are leaving their homes. going to where i mean they don't have shelters like, and is the visitor and they don't have anyone else you know, to go to like in his room as well. but just going a lot of them are, you know, setting up the tense on the streets and sleeping on the streets. and also the difference is we don't have a space 11 in strong states that can afford, you know, give them i've done at this the open some schools to them. and this means that they have to delay the opening of the schools. kids were supposed to go back to school this week, so it's really, it's whole humanitarian disaster and not just for the people of the south for flooding and has a ripple effect that go through all. exactly. i mean, a lot of those, you know, the population, the, the, she have populations self government is now going to scenarios in christian areas.

and this is already created some extensions between the people. because, you know, unlike in 2006, where a lot of lebanese were showing support extreme support to the people of the south. now it's really not the same anymore. maybe this one, the parent and on because i feel that is what it is. as they did in gauze, it's only for seeing a military solution without really having a political strategy behind it. so this is one big parent a little that this government of priming to send it to now is really aiming at finishing with their enemies on the military. the military means which is not paying off because organizations like homeless. and while i'm not to be finished off only militarily, that needs to be a political strategy to deal with them. so that's one big pamela that i've seen. we're gonna come to the difference between these, these 2 organizations in a moment. but 1st that when i have a closer look at has the live state within a states including social welfare and a health system. oh is it just

a total organization with powerful friends and t. ron has with off fits both descriptions day after the hamas turbo tax on the 7th of october, as well as the onset 5 and walk us on as well. but one of those has but really, so let's have a closer look. the so called poverty of god was founded in lebanon in 1982 by a group of she i clucks to fight against israel sensation today. his bullet also has seats in the 11 east parliament and functions as a defective government. and parts of the country running schools and hospitals. his brother stated goals remained the destruction of his route and the expulsion of western powers from 11 on his bottle receives hundreds of millions of dollars yearly from iran, which also supports the organization with training and weapons. many experts say that his bullet is one of the most heavily armed militant groups and the weld, according to is rarely estimates the group has around 150000 bro kits. and it could

have as many as 100000 scientists vouchers, least as what has bought a lead to pass on. the strong claims experts have estimated the number is low. how much has this bullet been weakened? yeah, that question. i'd like to toss on directly how much a we could is, is just a bit a good question when we are seeing has been a lot firing rockets of israel and even threatening as well. population centers such as to be yesterday with one messiah. but to me, that still doesn't indicate that his bullet is at its full capacity. because these rockets launches back something they have been preparing for a year. is that something you only need to push a button for? the question really is, how much did the pedro attacks and the walk you talk your tax of last week? how much have they actually failed to come on?

structures with in has been a lot. this is watch remains to be seen. i think they could have found police come on structures considerably. think about $3000.00 the tax lapse were conducted through page on quilting, talk explosions. think of an organization? well, probably about 20000 people are actually fighting. so 322-0000, that's a considerable damage these pager attacks. i'd like to talk about them. there was some dispute about whether they was strictly speaking legal as well. it's ongoing things and legal dispute. internationally. i mean, is right in rightfully claims that it was very targeted and in comparison to any major rocket fire or tax like they did in gauze or they didn't had hits too many civilians. and it was a targeted attack against his bullet fighters interest by members. at the same time, these been on the weapons be the communication devices that could be anywhere. it

could be in the supermarket and hospitals at home at the living room of these people said yes. so the point is that the idea of these attacks was at the same time attacking and targeting his ball at the same time as by creating a state of turmoil. and i think people in the know they few really terrorized by whatever critics build next. i mean, this feeling is now being felt by a lot of people invite the civilian population at the same time. and we have to, i was a little bit shocked by the discourse, especially in germany because people would really celebrate these attacks, as you know. so smart and surgical and saying that, you know, whoever carries the page or is a legitimate target. and i would argue that, you know, nurse or a teacher and one of the schools or hospitals would not be in the didn't the target . so we have 2 different said, it was well calculated, that would be civilian casualties. so this is why it's disputed international. i mean, what are you hearing a how we can is has,

has it has but right now by these attacks. and is this feeling of terror? i really primary thing society living. i don't know if it's we can to because um, as then you just said they still have a big costs and a lot of buckets of missiles of you know, that they haven't used yet. i mean, they tried a couple of days ago to, to one of them to tell of eve and you know that they didn't get there, but they still do have a lot of what induced that they can use. but i think the major issue now as well as a, is a trust issue, a trust within the husband law itself, the organization itself, because it's obviously been infiltrated on a fairly high level of visit, or at least have to mazda of the amount of information on his by lot, that means the after the pages attack and the walk stroke effects, they targeted a blonds. it leads to say lead to nest of hezbollah. that's. and they can one of their, you know, you know, very importantly, those, okay, they did attack them, they did have those information and they did attack them in

a building that was for the kids and for the other civilians at. but this also shows that is willing to go that far as is does not care to, but the civilian casualties and is really going after his bottle of so now as well as also has a trust trust within its own members, but also needs to the game that trust with his own people, because i don't know if that people still trust them anymore. i mean as well as always, to what that people that you mean such as best supporters, the shall population and da, here in the south for your route. and also in the south 11, and they've always told them we'd here to support you. you know, we can go back to homes after the 2006 for a full them. if i knew that this is, was going to cause oldest destruction, i wouldn't have taken kids enough. those could, is a, the soldiers. and since then the people so that they're going to go to the south city, but of the houses and be safe. but we discovered that this is not soon what's happening and he can even also, i mean, we heard and the report, the hezbollah has boost hospitals,

but those hospitals went even enough to look after that was when did this from the pages attack? i mean that they were bringing the, the people what into 2 of the hospital, so that might have condemned adversity hospice and they lived and the other hospitals and christian areas and so on. so it's not as well and used to i don't know what it needs to do, but it does definitely has a trust issue amongst its supporter and definitely amongst etc. and the organization. absolutely, i mean, all of the only thing i would add to that is uh, the bombing of dia, the very quota of a root, which is his ballade stronghold. when i talk to people close to his mom, not in the past few months, asking them what would be the red line flexible. they all told me the red line will be if this will bottoms dalia. that will be a moment where it was his below will be forced up by the sheer outrage of its members to respond in full force. and that's not what we see at the moment,

as well as not using its full force and responds instead. also, when a check good was assassinated, think you know, the 1st target on think leaders that they said was assessing nathan and also his bullet doesn't respond to this. i mean, well, you can argue that it on its main sponsor and creator doesn't want to, to respond to, you know, in a way that they will bring the whole region to war. but this is making his follow definitely lose trust amongst us on support assigned with seeing the red line moving upwards again and again and again. and that entails the risk both of things, spiraling out of control at some point. but at the same time, all these leaders can be replaced and all the fighters can be traced. the question is, how effective the strategy be to only go me to terminate against a full while i really tries to connect the whole fight. now to goes on to the war and got all that it says has to and for them to stop sending rockets while at the same time was the is what you think of them is trying to do is to disconnect the 2

subjects when they're really trying to do is to put so much pressure on his bullet for them to re finally to withdraw to north of the tiny river 30 kilometers away from the border by only giving them you know, the stump. something beautiful and stuffing the the hi arnie. this bringing it in this position to no longer asked for a demand the ceasefire for guys, which is this is really the calculation because of what the now wants is really wants to finish off. he wants to stop this switch from the north, no matter what's going on, because he wants to separate the 2 issues. and this is exactly what his bullet has been trying to avoid. they want to connect it because it's, they a fight. i mean, they're saying it's kind of verified to try to make it as a israel controlling the timing, at least with these pedro attacks and, and has block now is on the back foot and has to react. so is, is this a, a rehabilitation of the security forces of the as well and be, is this

a successful from the, is really a point of view, a successful strategy? well, that's a very interesting point, and that's also a point where i would slightly differ with proceed. but there are reports as wanting a very plausible report to me, which might be based on those really intelligent sources which came out drive off to the pedro attacks, which basically said these pedro tax and multi tokyo tax will actually devise the implant for the case of an all out will to be the 1st step and them all out will in order to destroy the communications and come on structures of football. we didn't actually want to do with now, but we, we have forced to do it because of these preparations. we're close to be a it's, it's called the, it's by his bottom. and that's why we have to do it now. and i think that's more or less credible because a, it is an excellent preparation for

a phone imminent war. but we're not seeing the israel leading this war in full force. now, this is not foot force, $500.00 is dying. get one, no full, full and dumping killing civilians. i was telling you, you know, the place where the best trouble as all the slot is most unfortunately i have to say it is not the worst thing that could happen. it is a guess. it is, and that's, you know, it was. but we could also see carpet bombings and the yeah, we could see the, i'm just also say the south africa. absolutely. so you know what kinda happened and i'm not saying that what is happening now is good. but i think it's not yet the worst case scenario that we see. and those pedro attacks where preparation for the worst case scenarios. so yes, as well as trying to instrumental law as that as a victory for its own security operators whose ability has been called into question likely. um,

but i'm not sure as hell calculated that stop step of escalation is and i think and then i'll be sending and then i'll be finished. i think the biggest problem on the is really side here is that they're moving closer to an extremely dangerous and brutal without actually having a plan. and then it will actually go in a medium wrong, i think. so the, the extra strategy is not so much the problem that in here i would differ with you, i think in 11. and there is a clear goal that can hardly be achieved with um, with a political means as well. a, a, beyond the imminent question of israel, the citizens moving back into the north of the country. and in order to facilitate that and make that possible to move his ball or away from the boat, or i think the more essential. so security interest of is a visa vi isabella is destroying, it's miss our capability. well, it says mold in the cool security dilemma of the region.

it's excuse me for interrupting them. very interesting discussion, but let's have a look at the other side. let's have a look at these well for a moment because of israel. the reason escalation does create a dangerous a 2nd front in its fight against as many sworn enemies but as well seems oblivious to the wrists even seems to be seeking the confrontation at all costs. the explosives planted in his the members pages and rule control keys. presumably by is rarely intelligence followed by extensive strikes. it seems that israel has entered a new phase and its conflict with his paula prime minister. netanyahu has declined that the goal of the war is the safe for tenants. is really residents. 60000 does riley's have had to leave the homes. is ro wants to forces paula to withdraw from the border areas to the north side of the village county river. let me show that to

those who have not yet understood. phil, i want to clarify is rose policy and we do not wait for threats. we anticipate it anywhere in any arena. at any time. we eliminate senior officials, we eliminate terrorism, we eliminate missiles, and there's more to come down on it to you. but it's still unclear whether the strategy will walk to the people in the countries know of the intensification of the conflict as having far reaching consequences. street serenity and hospitals have been evacuated and yet it isn't such an if his father were given, despite the heavy blows dealt to its leadership, could 11 on also be facing the threat to the ground. defensive yeah, let's pick a broadband of can this whole operation be successful with all the one defensive? well, the ground defensive is something that let them know in the past or was one is to avoid. basically, looking back at the history of the occupation is

a little bit of occupational stop living and, and how they're withdrawn in 2000 was leading to a major victory for his bullet. that was basically the basic, they was celebrated to see what's going over the region. so i think it's something that they want to avoid on this. they feel they really have to go in to destroy all these military facilities in the south, as well as waiting for the fed for that for them. it would be the fight that they have been preparing for and waiting for for a long time. so from that calculation, this would be a wrong step. the whole question is whether you can really force this bullet to not, you know, attack, they consider themselves to be defending. the been known to be a resistance movement that a part of the excess of resistance. so in the end, everything will be settled on food and diplomatic means. i mean in the end they will sit down and it will that because the question is how to implement the re resolution as 1701. but forces isabella to withdrawal for could take over in the south and live on this has is not possible because of a weekly, been east government that's true. but in this facility age has the military means

you can never rain in these organizations. so the bigger picture here is that is what in is lynn has an alternative. i would argue it had, it could have partners in the region to control it, to confront iran, which is the very back of all these fits from an is there any point of view, but this government natania is not calculated and like this, he wants to stay in power, he has to do what his radical partner says ready to come in. this does miss janik ministers asked him to do which is culture pine, gaza, which is annexation of us. so what he needs to do is to form a coalition with the west, with the region, with countries like so the rates are cut of the united arab emirates, which is something that was on the table now for months, is from the bye, didn't administration. this is what everybody has been walking on, whereas this is for any government is refusing to walk down that diplomatic world. i would like to come back to what you mentioned, the lebanese government. i mean, it was only talking about has, but i, we never talking about 11 and as a, as a country and, and is government. what can the lebanese government do, or is it to,

into twined with has the lebanese government at the moment as a caretaker, government, so even government, we don't have a president's. i mean, this is the major issue. and 11 on the week of the states becomes the stronger has both become so on like in 2006 when you know the word is the last one month and it ended up with a better solution. 171. but we had a strong government done for us and, you know, as you know, very vocal and as you know, the international community trusted us and we have the support of the out of countries as well as the gods countries chuck the little money 11. and for construction efforts, the saudis put money into the central bank to sub allows the economy a. but since then, a lot of this change now 11 is isolated on the, on an a big level because of as well as the fetus in the region. since then, i mean it's interference and smelling in the i'm and supporting the who sees the defense media in syria. i mean, the been, you know, sided with the shot of a sudden kidding over syrian who are post of a shuttle. i said,

and this has caused, you know, a lot of the, at a people to not support has been the moment. and the fact that the lebanese governments now is the kids take a government and his week by the finish. and of course, it makes everything worse to feel like, you know, there is no one in charge of, in lebanon, and test bullet holes and has been holding, you know, the decisions of peace and war in his end, against the will of most of that up and he's at the moment, but you know, and we don't see him as phone it is like we have been silent, has been a lot of the can use of incentives, has been the we do not want to be involved in this through the 8th of october, which is what i've decided to start finding rockets with israel, despite the lives of everyone else in the country. you know, and now we're at this point and the government is specialized through the. so how can i, how can we put a stop to all this is the reason the initiative this, this joint declaration that we've just seen this week,

a step in the right direction and will it, will it have any effect? yeah, i think it is a step in the right direction, but this us sponsored initiative that both france the okay and also gemini, a supporting and, and we're actually seeing why the coverage, any reactions to that from israel, placed on the done on those roles. you on by so the concept that israel is looking for a diplomatic solution. we might not take these statements at face value, but if you know, don't need along the way she usually presents himself to the public as a find a brand to plymouth. i think it's meaningful that the we wrecked in that way. and i think the reason for that is 1st of all that as well knows about the cost of going into old out what was the ground defensive. and secondly, i think that's like most policies in the middle east. israel would like to know who

is going to rule in the white house before the next 4 years before make jane other major pathogens and major steps, right? we have one minute left very briefly. you think this crisis and a lot more that can be avoided very briefly. i think it can be avoided and i feel is right. it would have an alternative that with this government is not very viable . so i'm afraid that the whole guy's point will only come to an end when we see the results of say, americans and it needs to stop what it started and gaza. nathaniel has to accept that he has done the work and does not know. the 1st thing is to have their own state find that they must all of the say that if this were stops, we would stop. i think it can be avoided by this, but the security dilemma participle that poses with israel on the other side that will remain. thank you very much to my panel that fits for today from a to the point. if you watch sites on youtube, please make sure to leave

a 0 comment down here in the comments section, i've got the office here in front of me for me and the whole to the point team. thanks for the the, the,

he's the head of a country the deadline is homeland of 2 beds has been occupied by china, so almost 75 years. the deadline. norma, what time is he for his country? this, he received the nobel peace to this business. china, in 15 minutes on the w. yeah, i actually hate live all you know?

yeah. promises of beauty and happiness at affordable prices. this is how turkish clinics attract customers from around the world. but medical malpractice is widespread. sorry for that for me is victims and their relatives are demanding accountability focused on europe. in 19 minutes on the w of the the dw on sticks all the inside. every day the world crashes. are your texas to work for free part of our time. like because we can make the different w call, the world unpack pops up on your info and all the

input, you need w stores now onto the tub instead of 2023. how much loans has a terror attack as well? it is the bloody estate and the history of the 2 estates and the beginning of the roll and gaza when you a nice week 7, the backgrounds of the attack. how content and what role that is really and palestinian. what sort of house? okay. do you have most of the titles the change tel aviv, what he hasn't had on israel's policy capital focused on one year. israel, how most scouts of tobin says on the w the,

this is dw news live from berlin. presidents of the us and ukraine meet to discuss how to turn the tide in the war against russia. a lot of his lensky presents is so called plan for victory to joe biden. at the white house us president promised speed resources to keep clearing the rush. it will not prevail. also on our program, hurricane helene strengthens to a dangerous category for storm. as it bears down on the us state of florida, forecasters warning potentially record breaking storm searches inland flooding the.