assistance for ukraine is that to outline the so called a victory plan for president bite and vice president harris. but instead of the bi partisan as relation that greeted his 1st washington visit, presidents and advocates worked into a route with republicans about meddling in the us collection on feel game ended by then. and this is the day, the russia prevail. prayer will continue to stand by you every step of the best approach at 5. i know you won't be trained to prevail. you need to allow process liskey to execute this plan. you train and america at the side by side from there. where are you comfortable with all of these terrible russians? nation? ukraine is gone. it's not ukraine anymore. together

we have to wait a little will. thank you. also on the day israel says it will keep attacking, has blah in that. but on, despite the us backed push for a cease 5, you know, face the risk of an all out another full scale war would, could be devastating for both israel and 11. so let me be clear, israel and 11 on can choose a different despite a ship, the sharp escalation, in recent days, a diplomatic solution is still viable. welcome to the day when us voters elect a new president in less than 6 weeks, that also have a big hand in deciding ukraine's future. so there's

a lot at stake for bottom. is that lensky has been meeting political leaders in washington, a waiting for donald trump on the 5th of november could and us support for your principal against russia's invasion. instead of meeting the training present during this trip, mr. trump accused him of refusing to strike a deal with moscow and asked why the us is given ukraine. billions of dollars in aid for them is that landscape. we think the woman reception from joe buying a democratic presidential hopeful complet harris with the us president, pledging more than $8000000000.00 in fresh military assistance. despite the war was an handshakes, however, there was still no public approval for mister design skis, most often repeated request permission to allow his country to use us and we saw it was to hit the foot inside russia. well, dr. mark call, it has had a long career as a foreign policy and defense adviser. most recently, she served as assistant secretary of defense. the strategy plans and capabilities

in the buys of ministration is not professor at johns hopkins university school of advanced international studies. i asked to whether $8000000000.00 and military assistance is all the landscape will be going home. well, that's a whole lot of assistance. and in particular, the suspect the specifics are worth spending a moment on. so for example, pledges to train additionally ukrainian a 16 pilots more long range munitions, more air defense, another system, a patriot air defense system, which has been incredibly important for project for protecting ukraine skies and also interceptors so that that system can work that that's a lot to go home, it is a lot to go home with what he has a country to try and rescue, and we'll know that while he wants most of all is permissions that to use uh, these western supply, the american supply, a long range weapons,

deeper into russia, that's the thing that he really prizes we understand from this meeting is things like me to go home disappointed. if that is the only thing he's focused on, i don't know that this meeting will meet all of his needs. but look, ah, there has been a lot of support as you know, over the last 2 and a half years from the united states and 50 plus countries to support ukraine's military. it's a key reason why ukraine's military is still so successful on the ground. and why ukraine maintained sovereignty over the over whelming majority of its territory. could you take us inside the room? what happens when 2 heads of state meet like this? when one of the one something and the other knows exactly what they they want to do . mine is actually get changed at these meetings. i think minds can absolutely

be changed in the sorts of conversations. it's important to remember, this doesn't all start with one conversation though. right? i mean, be these discussions on the security situation in ukraine. the security situation in russia, what's been effective, what's been less effective that's been going on for, you know, 2 and a half years. so the story doesn't just begin with today's visit. it's a much, much longer one. and it will be important to try to think through what impact could it have to use these weapons deeper into russian territory. and what impact could that have, not just operationally but strategically. how does president put in understand that? and so who, or what to do think could change president bivens mind on this issue? a few cranes a use of these long range weapons because it has changed before, hasn't it has your exactly right. so there was

a lot of debate you might recall earlier in the war over whether or not to give ukraine fighter jets and ultimately that has come through with f sixteens and training of 16 pilots. there was a debate also with tax. and in fact, that was especially relevant for germany, because once the united states pledge to give some tanks to ukraine's so to i didn't germany which made some particularly capable tanks that were especially relevant for that battlefield. and this one is a little bit different though. we have heard the russians talk a lot about strikes deep into their territory. you might know that actually russia is in the throes of updating its nuclear, dr. and so i think what folks will want to hear is operationally, what effect would it have on the battlefield? to use these weapons deep in russian territory, strategically, what effect does it have on russia's thinking on that? as you say,

vladimir postings treats these countries at nuclear doctrine. they said that, assistance by nuclear power would not be regarded as, as a joint. aggression which could be met with a nuclear responds that has been a lot of tool that has been a lot of talk of saber rattling. how seriously do you think that the west is likely to view this newest threat? well, in general, when we're talking about nuclear weapons and threats, we should be a little bit apprehensive, right, and most powerful weapon on earth. and we have seen over the last 2 and a half years of this war, these moments of saber rattling, where present improvement has made threats. where forces had been moved, where nuclear weapons capabilities have been put into bella roost for instance. so i really don't think we should push push in, ignore it. the challenge is figuring out what's rhetoric and what is reality. does this updated dr. and really threaten real support that various countries

had been giving to ukraine to help it survive and thrive in this uh, you know, i missed this conflict or is it more specific? is it bespoke types of assistance that russell will mountain view in a certain light. and that's what i think folks are going to have to try to really understand what does it look like for a nuclear state to support a non nuclear state and really make it seem aggressive and seriously threatening to rush quick. what then about the way that this is probably not in the election. we've already said that the republicans that have criticized present the landscape for visiting this of this weapons manufacturer saying it so it's all time political . have ukraine is ukraine and election the issue to it has become an election issue. although interestingly, polling shows the american public is pretty supportive of continuing assistance to

ukraine. so i want to say that the constituents necessarily on the whole believe that that should stop it's, it's the exact opposite. in fact, indeed, above 60 percent of the us aid to ukraine's military actually gets spent here. so like in my home state of wisconsin, half a 1000000000 has gotten spent and is in the throes of being spent to support ukraine's and. busy at terry, but you are exactly right. this has become a topic of conversation through the election presidents on wednesdays visit to an ammunition production factory to think the factory workers did. did play a part in that further more over the much bigger dynamic is that we've seen president trump talk about um, ideas that he and of vice presidential candidate jamie bands have on how to end the war. unfortunately, their proposal does seem a whole lot like present improvements proposal. right. so the started at

the, starts with this war. there was bipartisan support for ukraine. is it folding away? is it becoming less bipartisan? because the united states all the, the, the, the us politically elite is just tired of this. or is it more because donald trump has posting, has sent out a particular store on this. and republicans are now very much sort of falling behind that. as you know, just a few months ago, we saw a massive a package past congress, right, with a lot of republican support as well to be able to continue assistance to ukraine. and that really stands on my mind this assign that much of congress again, including folks from the democratic side and the republican side. want to continue this aid pulling as a noted shows the american public wants to continue this aid. but we have seen

president trump raised these ideas about ending the war in 24 hours. i don't think anyone's quite clear on what that would look like or how anywhere short of really giving president, putting what he wants in to be clear as you know very well this work would end pretty quickly is present, put and just decided that he wanted to stop trying to eat up ukraine. thanks for joining us through that. so i clearly dr. mark comment from johns hopkins university. thank you so much. thank you so much. is what i was kind of gotten you strikes against this happened on despite the us that called for a temporary cease fire. a joint statement urging a 21 day truce was issued by the us friends get tossed out here right here. and other countries following tulips. on the sidelines of the un general assembly is ready. prime minister benjamin netanyahu has arrived in new york where he's due to

address this catherine of well datas on friday. he says, so he strikes on that, but will not stop until his bloss wps. it's cross border 5, which is full tens of thousands to evacuate the homes in northern israel. the d as riley army has carried out more than 2000 strikes and 11 on since the start of the week. but it appears no closer to stopping hezbollah, firing rockets over the boulder and allowing northern israel residents to return to towns like this one that have been almost emptied by nit daily attacks. now with tanks heading to the folder, it seems israel is preparing to send in ground forces to try and achieve what app, how hasn't moved from the city. you will go in and destroy the enemy. there are, this is, was, will allow us to safely return the residence of the nor have toward the community to hold is really officials have made clear that that a missed a full hezbollah back across lebanon's la toni river,

creating the buffers that the un security council called for back in 2006 at the end of the last war between israel and the group. the area is a strong hold of has bought a while the group has been weakened by israel's killings of senior commanders. it is still full to have between 40 and 50000 fighters, as well as an off know of a 150000 rockets. hezbollah is also believed to built an extensive tunnel network as seen and its propaganda. if it is like this one, according to his really estimates it could cover hundreds of kilometers x, but say hezbollah will likely prove even more of a challenge and whom us has the fullest as a find more bed of hot. and they're much more sophisticated in terms of how they operate more independently because they operate. also, like i said in a way,

but obviously i must is, has never been in the side and touch the come back before most of them. i suppose that has a has why? the idea is always it prepared for us for this war. i don't know, they do know how costly is going to be, but the lebanese people will also be forced to pay the price of any ground invasion . last week's attacks have already killed hundreds. well, tens of thousands more have fled from the homes and southern 11 known in search of safety. those who have made it to shelter like here in a root, have a little faith in the prospect of a cease fire. god, the clearly is wireless lying is actually donovan i'll, i'll put a holier to have been talking about cruising because i want to admit, but it has not happened once they bought the product is the dumbest guess. the truth isn't enough for us to return to our homes because it lasts for a short time, then we'll be displaced again them all right. we want to return to our homes

permanently. liam, with his rarely false, is conducting exercises close to the lebanese border on thursday. those who have left the homes behind condone the weight and height. height of women is the international spices groups, the project director for iraq, syria, and lebanon. a welcome to the w. we seen israel and hezbollah trading rhetoric and rocket fight across this week with thousands on the ground into that, but on running for their lives. what parts does the lebanese government play? it all of this the lebanese government plays very little part and it's because the lemony, the woman has no uh, no bridge in any shape or form over asked by law and the day mediate the day. i couldn't do it between isabella and the international mediators. within the

united states, because into the united states would not talk. so terrorists, such as well as the minister of foreign affairs, to liberty's minister of foreign affairs that she has put that nicely for, for us in a conversation we have to be long ago, he would just say, well, we negotiate hezbollah calls the shots. and obviously that can be taken quite literally. right. so when we see this call for a 21 day, a c's 5 between israel and has a bullet that was issued by the us and others. the wording was interesting. it called on all parties, including the governments of israel and levon on to endorse the a temporary cease fire immediately. and didn't mention has black eyed. this then is because as you say, they don't speak directly to terrace, as i suppose. so, i mean, i'm, i mean it's the you and yeah, it's more, it's, it you and as a for them and the french will also sponsors of this,

of this declaration or the statement. and so the defense to speak to one. so i mean, i don't really see why they would not put them in, except maybe they don't want to have a state or non state doctor in this. but anyway, it's modes this way, these have projected isn't done, you know, has detected it. so it's not flying, it's a, it's not, it's not going to go anywhere. i would appear for an out at least. ok, so told to a small then about the position of hezbollah within a lebanese military and political structure is because it does sound very much like a state within a state as well. it surely is, and some people also describe it as a state within the field stage, right? because even on uh, i mean level, it was never a very strong state. so i had never had a very strong state. and, and so since 2019 the only crisis that one that's already

able state has to be in a road. it's even more so. so as well. um it is the political party as well as look for is represented as empowerment. they have allies in parliament, in the political sphere, all of which allows them to either impose their will or veto whatever others want to do if it's not to their liking enough code that comes, that becomes especially important when you, when it comes to imposing limitations on as well as the ability to wage war by its own decision, without asking the government or the competent institutions in any shape or form. now it is a while as a very big arson of what kids. of course, all we know about the intelligence reports. and they also have 20030000 fighters. nobody knows, of course, again, how many?

so many states does not have any courses means so they cannot tell as well that anything or what, what to do, what not to do. and they cannot force anything upon them is by his decision on itself. and that made very clear in the past that these decisions cannot be charged on the use level by nobody and 11 on the does have an anomaly. but from what you've said, it sounds like the idea of it's trying to for impose a decision on, has a blog by the lebanese government is unthinkable to there's no, it's, it's inconceivable. and we have seen that in the past of various confrontations that occurred specifically one a, 2008. it was one where the, where a lebanese government are to try to impose some of the one as well. it was about

a 10 minute terms and, and then one as well. i decided to take the gloves off and, and respond with a lines to the tentative tend to that government had no means and no means to do anything about it. it's the arm used by the security forces through the by it's generally it's expected that if you where to send the army or, or any of the security force against the law, that the army would split the contents. and you would basically immediately descend into a full fledged civil war. and nobody has tried that. nobody is likely to try that. and it's certainly not going to, it won't do any good stuff. that's an is, has been a popular i, it's a, it's a political and social entity as well. do people back it's so this is a very much divided society. under divisions are mostly sectarian. they also

politicos, or sometimes called across the same thing, can you might and there is a very significant part of the these who are post strongly opposed to what is boys doing. but even in the elections are either through a former pro, several democratic process. uh, they were never able to uh, to assemble a majority big enough to, to really do something about best buy. even the only question again, if they would try to do that. but then the response, the minutes of invalid response would look like i'm about to has a supporters most of the, i mean the movement of this course based in the she a community that have pretty much chief, the one awfully in the representation of the community. they are ideologically very dominant within it, and that there is the sense actually is the sensor. and

a now perhaps more than ever before because people are suffering and not everybody is necessarily subscribe to the, to the, this course describes to the war object. it's not everybody thinks that the suffering is really was this uh, but the party is built in a way and it's rooted in its community in a way that such defense can not comfortable for people like who have these misgivings either shut off of these. but it's, it's inconceivable that you could have a popular movement, right. and that basically goals trust and support from the leadership within shack . and you told him about has been a, as a state within a failed state. i just want to just go back to that because the country's level is political and social frontier with a study much brought into focus in august of 2020, with

a massive explosion in the course of a root that several of the countries made in port all 3, it was suffering that how much had recovered before all this happened. there is no recovery cost, a political leadership of this country and, and also the economic plans and those a lot overlapping to a large extent. so i'm extend the same, these are these leaders of since 2019 uh, since even the year before that explosion have consistently resistance any substantial reforms. anything, all the all with has been proposed from the i'm f, a stands ready already to help leveling on a gift. $3000000000.00 and then others would come in 2019. there were pledges up to $13000000000.00 from other countries with support. and i don't want that,

but there are stairs conditionality, people, i mean, countries do not want to get the seat is money, go down the drain from the corruption mismanagement that has produced across in the 1st place. so that would require substantial reform within the nice political system of government and all of that of the parties involved has no interest in not to destroy it, destroyed that particular model. political model is built on nepotism. the answer doesn't, if you have a choice between like political suicides, by accepting these reforms and continued bankruptcy of the country, i was the one you are able to preserve your position, then choose the 2nd. thank you so much for a guiding us through that hire hi co payment from the international crisis group. thank you. thank you very much.

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