that it's all about saying it's loud as things would have been, you know, say like good everyone to ok. retiring into a microphone. sorry. you're healthy award winning called costs. don't hold back the violence of more violence and no end inside a new phase of the war. is being declared by both is wrote and has blocks people on both sides getting a taste of what that looks and feels like. rockets and bones ran down on both sides . hundred's already died 11 and tens of thousands of civilians fled south of the country heading north as well once vent support as wells and talks to people that come on this on fighters. rigging, pages with explosives is really allegedly killed around a 1000, an engine, and many more that way as black ones have chosen gaza before it stops 5 in vol

codes into israel until the ve fonts is by attacking has blocked positions. so then thousands of his various can return to the homes and then also without being targeted by has but as roxanne's, we are israel versus hezbollah. we'll that'd be all 11 at the welcome to, to the point of, introduce you to my panel today. bringing it up on me is a journalist from lebanon christian health. i'm a journalist at alice on the middle east and daniel doing. busy journalist and exploit for me at least at the daily newspaper defense here in germany. a little while come to all of you. of course,

let's start with you. it is so 11 and becoming of a new gaza. well, although some of the pictures that we see might remind us of what's going on, you guys are, you cannot compare the situation. i mean, live on is not the seats, but this way live on, on. there's not occupied by is right. and by his way, so you cannot completely say the time off and his phone all the same as well as a lot a lot more stronger than homeless is. so it's not as if we are heading to a situation similar to gaza. but gaza is a corporate life in a way for as well, kind of still kind of loving to become a similar problem. well, i think that could be some similar problems, but that depends on how is relax. now, what we're hearing these days is that as well as preparing for a ground defense of 11 i'm, i'm not quite sure this is really an eminence scenario, but it's is a possibility. and if, if israel goes in that direction,

it's might find itself in the clock, maya, and not been on, because that scenario is really so which is moving in and a starting i do really wolf at on these trips. that swats has been a lot has been preparing for during the past. yes, that's wolf, as well as looking for what he to the for many lebanese, this already feels like, like, well, what will be the difference? will it make a difference? i mean, of course it will, can always get much worse, but at the moment too, right, i mean, nobody's calling to fill out war, but it is a flat war. i mean, and one day we saw that on monday when it had been brought to the south of lebanon, saying that it's stuck in good artillery, you know, of his vala and other places of lebanon. we so over 500 people dying that's and one day and this is, you know, we haven't seen that at 11 and 40 years since the end of the civil war in the 1990

. this is as of amount of casualties to fall and one day. um, so yeah, for a lot of live in use, it does feel, or we seen that a piece of pictures of this whole x or this of people from the south. hundreds of thousands of people are leaving their homes, going to where i mean they don't have shelters like and is the visitor and they don't have anyone else you know, to go to like in his room as well. but just going a lot of them are, you know, setting up the tense on the streets and sleeping on the streets. and also the difference is we don't have a space 11 in strong states that can afford, you know, give them i've done at this the open some schools to them. and this means that they have to delay the opening of the schools. kids were supposed to go back to school this week, so it's really, it's whole humanitarian disaster and not just for the people in the south for flooding and has a ripple effect that goes to all. exactly. i mean, a lot of those and you know, the population, the, the, she helpful relations self government is now going to scenarios in christian areas

. and this is already created some extensions between the people. because, you know, unlike in the 2006 where a lot of lebanese were showing support extreme support to the people of the south. now it's really not the same anymore. maybe this one, the parent and on because i feel that is what it is. as they did in gauze, it's only for seeing a military solution without really having a political strategy behind it. so this is one big parent a little bit this government of probably me to send it to now is really aiming at finishing with their enemies on the military. military means which is not paying off because organizations like homeless and spa, i'm not to be finished off only militarily, that needs to be a political strategy to deal with them. so that's one big pamela that i've seen. we're going to come to the difference between these, these 2 organizations in a moment. but 1st the one i have a closer look at has will live state within a states including social welfare and a health system. oh, is it just

a total organization? the pol friends and t ron has with us fits both descriptions day after the hamas turbo tax on the 7th of october, as well as the onset 5 and walk us on it as well. but one of those has, but really, so let's have a closer look. the so called poverty of god was founded in lebanon in 1982 by a group of she clucks to fight against israel sensation. today, his bullet also has seats in the 11 east parliament and functions as a defective government, and parts of the country running schools and hospitals. his brother stated goals remained the destruction of his route and the expulsion of western powers from lebanon. just bought a receives hundreds of millions of dollars yearly from iran, which also supports the organization with training and weapons. many experts say that his bullet is one of the most heavily armed militant groups and the weld. according to is rarely estimates the group has around $150000.00 bro kits. and it

could have as many as 100000 find to is that at least as what his ball the lead to pass on, the strong claims experts have estimated the number is low. how much has this bullet been weakened? yeah, that question i'd like to pass on directly how much, how we could is just a bit. a good question when we are seeing has been a lot firing rockets at israel and even threatening as well. population centers such as to the be yesterday with one messiah. but to me that still doesn't indicate that to isabel is at its full capacity. because these rockets launches back something they have been preparing for a year. is that something you only need to push a button for? the question really is, how much did the pedro attacks and the walk you talk your tax of last week? how much have they actually failed to come on?

structures with in his block. this is watch remains to be seen. i think they could have fram, please come on. structures considerably. think about $3000.00 the tax maps were conducted through page uh, and full control. okay, explosions. think of an organization. well, probably about 20000 people are actually fighting. so 322-0000, that's a considerable damage these pager attacks. i'd like to talk about them. there was some dispute about whether they was strictly speaking legal as well. it's ongoing things and legal dispute. internationally. i mean, is right in rightfully claims that it was very targeted and in comparison to any major rocket fire, all attacks like that. and guys that they didn't had hits too many civilians and it was a targeted attack against his bullet fighters interest by members. at the same time, these been on the weapons be the communication devices that could be anywhere. it

could be in the supermarket and hospitals at home at the living room of these paper things isn't yes. so the point is that the idea of these attacks was at the same time attacking and targeting his ball at the same time is by creating a state of turmoil. and i think people in the know they feel really terrorized by whatever critics do next. i mean, this feeling is now being felt by a lot of people invite the civilian population at the same time. and we have to, i was a little bit shocked by the discourse, especially in germany because people would really celebrate these attacks of, you know, so smart and surgical and saying that, you know, whoever carries the page or is legitimate target. and i would argue that, you know, nurse or a teacher and one of the schools or hospitals would not be in the didn't the target . so we have 2 different said, it was well calculated that would be civilian casualties. so this is why it's disputed international. i mean, what are you hearing a, a, how we can the is, has,

has it has but right now by these attacks and is this feeling of terror? i really premier agent society level. i don't know if it's we can to because um, as then you just said they still have a big costs and a lot of buckets of missiles of you know that they haven't used yet. i mean, they tried a couple of days ago to, to one of them to tell of eve and you know, that they didn't get there. but uh, they still do have a lot of what's induced that they can use. but i think the major issue now as well as a, is a trust issue, a trust within the husband law itself, the organization itself, because it's obviously been infiltrated on a fairly high level of these are, these have to mazda of the amount of information on his by lot that means the after the pages attack on the walks, ok, that's they talk to a blonds, it leads to say lead to nest of hezbollah. that's. and they can one of their, you know, you know, very importantly, those, okay, they did attack them, they did have those information and they did attack them in a building that was for the kids and for the other civilians at. but this also

shows that it is willing to go that far as is does not care to, but the civilian casualties and is really going after his bottle of so now as well as also has a trust trust within its own members, but also needs to the game that trust with his own people because i don't know if that people still trust them anymore. i mean to, as well as always, to what that people uh, the best you mean solutions. uh, best supporters, the shop population in da here in the south of the route and also in the south 11. and they've always told them we'd here to support you. you know, we can go back to homes after the 2006 for a full them. if i knew that this is was going to cause oldest destruction, i wouldn't have taken kids enough. those crew is a, the soldiers. and since then the people so that they're going to go to the south 3, but of the houses and be safe. but we discovered that this is not so you know what's happening and he can even also, i mean, we ever heard of the report. the hezbollah has boost hospitals,

but those hospitals went even enough to look after that was when did this from the pages attack? i mean, they were bringing the, the people what intro to of the hospital, so that might have condemned adversity hospice it and they lived and the other hospitals and christian areas and so on. so it's not as well and needs to i don't know what it needs to do, but it does definitely has a trust issue amongst it supporter and definitely amongst itself and the organization then. absolutely, i mean, all of the only thing i would add to that is uh, the bombing of dia, the very quota of a root, which is his ballade stronghold. when i talk to people close to his mom, not in the past few months, asking them what would be the red line flexible. they all told me the red line will be if this will bottoms dalia. that will be a moment where it was his below will be forced up by the sheer outrage of its members to respond in full force. and that's not what we see at the moment,

as well as not using its full force and responds instead. also, when a check good was estimated the, you know, the 1st tired and can leaders that the streams assessing data. and also his bulletin responds, does not mean that you can argue that it, on its main sponsor and creator doesn't want to, to respond to, you know, in a way that they would bring the whole region into war. but this is making his beloved, definitely lose trust. amongst us on support assigned with seeing the red line moving upwards again and again and again. and that entails the risk of things spiraling out of control at some point. but at the same time, all these leaders can be replaced and all the fighters can be traced. the question is, how effective the strategy be to only go me to terminate against a full while i really tries to connect the whole fight. now to goes on to the war and go, although that it says has to and for them to stop sending rockets while at the same time was these,

what you think of them is trying to do is to disconnect the 2 subjects when they're really trying to do is to put so much pressure on his bullet for them to re finally to withdraw to north of the tiny river 30 kilometers away from the border by only giving them you know, this the stump. something beautiful and stuffing the, the hiring this, bringing it in this position to no longer act for a demand. the ceasefire for guys, which is this is really the calculation because it wasn't it. i now want, this really wants to finish off. he wants to stop this switch from the north, no matter what's going on, because he wants to separate the 2 issues. and this is exactly what his bullet has been trying to avoid. they want to connect it because it's, they are fight. i mean, they're saying it's kind of verified to try to make it like this, i think, is well controlling the timing, at least with these pedro attacks and, and has blog now is on the back foot and has to react. so is, is this a, a rehabilitation of the security forces of the as well and be, is this

a successful from the israeli point of view, a successful strategy? well, that's a very interesting point, and that's also a point where i would slightly differ with proceed. but there are reports as wanting a very plausible report to me, which might be based on those really intelligent sources which came out drive off to the pedro attacks, which basically said these pedro attack some multi tokyo attacks well, actually devised. i'm planned for the case of an allow tool to be the 1st step in them all out will in order to destroy the communications and come on structures of football. we didn't actually want to do with now, but we, we have forced to do it because of these preparations. we're close to be a, it's called the, it's by his bump. and that's why we have to do it now. and i think that's more or less credible because a, it is an excellent preparation for a phone imminent war,

but we're not seeing the israel leading this war in full force. now this is not foot force, $507.00 is dying, get one, no full full and dumping killing civilians. i was telling you, you know, the place where the best trouble as all the flock is most unfortunately i have to say it is not the worst thing that could happen. it is a guess. it is, and that's, you know, it was. but we could also see carpets bombings and the yeah, we could see the, i'm just calling to say the south africa. absolutely. so you know what kinda happened and i'm not saying that's what is happening now is good. but i think it's not yet the worst case scenario that we see. and those pedro attacks where preparation for the worst case scenarios. so yes, as well as trying to instrumental loans that as a victory for its own security operators whose ability has been called into question likely. um,

but i'm not sure as hell calculated. that's the step of escalation is i think, and then i'll be send it and then i'll be finished. i think the biggest problem on the is really side here is that, that moving closer to an extremely dangerous and brutal without actually having a plan. and then it will actually go in a medium wrong, i think so the, the extra strategy is not so much the problem that in here i would differ with you, i think, and 11. and there is a clear goal that can hardly be achieved with um, with a political means that as well. a, a beyond the imminent question of israel, the citizens moving back into the north of the country. and in order to facilitate that and make that possible to move his ball away from the boulder, i think the more essential the security interest of is a visa v. as the butler is destroying it's miss are a couple ability. well, this is more than come to the for the cool security dilemma of the region.

it's excuse me for interrupting them. very interesting discussion, but let's have a look at the other side. let's have a look at these. well, uh for a moment because of israel, the reason escalation does create a dangerous a 2nd front in his fight against as many sworn enemies but as well seems oblivious to the wrists even seems to be seeking the confrontation at all costs. the explosives planted in his the members pages and rule control keys. presumably by is ready intelligence followed by extensive strikes. it seems that israel has entered a new phase and its conflict with his paula prime minister and its. and y'all has declined that the goal of the war is the safe for tenants is ready, residents. 60000 israelis have had to leave the homes. israel wants to force his paula to withdraw from the border areas to the north side of the village county

river. let me show that to those who have not yet understood what i want to clarify is rose policy and we do not wait for threats. we anticipate it any way in any arena. at any time we eliminate senior officials, we eliminate terrorism, we eliminate missiles, and there's more to come down on it to you. but it's still unclear whether the strategy will walk to the people in the countries know of the intensification of the conflict as having far reaching consequences. street, serenity and hospitals have been evacuated and yet it isn't such. and if his father were given, despite the heavy blows dealt with leadership, could levin on also be facing the threat to the ground defensive yeah, let's pick a broadband of can this whole operation be successful with the other one offensive? well, the ground defensive as something that the now in the past always one is to avoid basically looking back at the history of the occupation is available. we have to

put occupations, talk live, and then, and how they're withdrawn in 2000 was leading to a major victory for his bullet. that was basically the basic. they was celebrated to see what's all over the region. so i think it's something that they want to avoid on this. they feel they really have to go in to destroy all these military facilities in the south, as well as waiting for the bed for that for them. it would be the fight that they have been preparing for and waiting for for a long time. so from that calculation, this would be a wrong step. the whole question is whether you can really force as ball to not, you know, attack, they consider themselves to be defending. the been known to be a resistance movement that a part of the excess of resistance. so in the end, everything will be settled on food and diplomatic means, i mean, and then they will sit down and it will be requesting this how to implement the resolution as 17. 0 one. but it forces isabella to withdrawal, who could take over in the south and live on the test is not possible because of the week lebanese government that's true. but in this facility age has the military

means you can never rein in these organizations. so the bigger picture here is that is what you is, lynn has an, a ton of, i would argue it had, it could have partners in the region to control it, to confront iran, which is the very back of all these fits from one. is there any point of view, but this government natania is not calculated in act as he wants to stay and how he has to do what his radical partner says ready to come in. this does miss janik ministers asked him to do, which is actually pined, garza which is annexation officer. so what he needs to do is to form a coalition with the west, with the region was country like saudi arabia, cutoff, the united arab emirates, which is something that was on the table now for months, is from the bye, didn't administration. this is what everybody has been working on, whereas this is for any government is refusing to walk down that diplomatic world. i would like to come back to what you mentioned, the lebanese government. i mean, it was only talking about has, but i, we never talking about 11 and as a, as a country and, and is government. what can the lebanese government do or is it to,

intertwined with has the, was the lebanese government at the moment. as a caretaker, government, even government, we don't have a president. i mean, this is the major issue and 11 on the week or the state becomes the stronger his bottom that becomes so on like in 2006 when you know the word is the last one month and it ended up with a resolution 171 we had to strong government done for us and, you know, as you know, very vocal and to, as you know, the international community trusted us and we have the support of the out of countries as well as the gods countries chucked a lot of money $11.00 and for construction efforts, the saudis put money into the central bank to stabilize the economy of but since then a lot of this change now 11 is isolated on the, on an, at a big level because of as well as the fetus in the region. since then, i mean it's interfering since smuggling and them and supporting the who sees the defense mainly in syria. i mean, they've been, you know, sided with the shot of a sudden kidding over syrian who are post of a shuttle. i said,

and this has caused, you know, a lot of the, at a people to not support has been the moment. and the fact that the lebanese governments now is the kids take of government and his week by the finish. and of course, it makes everything worse to feel like, you know, there is no one in charge of lebanon and test bullet holes and has been holding the, you know, the decisions of peace and war in his end, against the will of most of that up and he's at the moment, but you know, and we don't see and that's thrown it is like we have been telling test a lot of the use of incentives. but the, we do not want to be involved in this since the 8th of october, which is what i've decided to start finding rockets with israel, despite the lives of everyone else in the country. you know, and now we're at this point and the government to specialize through this. so how can i, how can we put a stop to all this is the reason of the initiative this, this joint declaration that we've just seen this week. this step in the right

direction and will it, will it have any effect? yeah, i think it is a step in the right direction. this us sponsored initiative that both france the okay and also gemini, also pull to and, and we're actually seeing law the coverage, any reactions to that from israel, placed on the done on those rules you on by. so the concept that as well as looking for a diplomatic solution, we might not take these statements at face value, but if you know, don't need along the way she usually presents himself to the public as a finer brand to plymouth. i think it's meaningful that you be wrecked in that way . and i think the reason for that is, 1st of all that as well knows about the cost of going into old out what wasn't ground defensive. and secondly, i think that's like most policies in the middle east. israel would like to know who

is going to ruled in the white house before the next 4 years before make j another major pathogens and major steps, right? we have one minute left very briefly. you think this crisis and a lot more that can be avoided very briefly. i think it can be avoided and i feel is right. it would have an alternative that with this government is not very viable . so i'm afraid that the whole guy's point will only come to an end when we see the result, the same outcome electrons and this to stop what it started in gaza. nathaniel has to accept that he has done the work and does not know. the 1st thing is to have their own state find that they must all of the say that if this were stops, we would stop. i think it can be as a did by this, but the security dilemma spell that poses with israel on the other side. that's where we may. thank you very much to my panel. that's it for today from a to the point. if you watch sites on the youtube,

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this is dw news coming to line from berlin. poland militants target. israel's port city of hyphen rocket surveyed israel's defenses and strikes the northern city. meanwhile, israel keeps up, its deadly bombardment of 11 on peasant prepares for a ground defense. also coming up, hurricane helene hits florida. 6 states of declared emergencies with devastating floods predicted a 1000000 residents have already lost power in more damage is expected. plus, ukraine's president's 6 bi partisan support from us leaders. after talks with democrats, loved him,

is the landscape prepares to meet the republican presidential candidate donald trump.