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tv   Shift  Deutsche Welle  September 28, 2024 2:15pm-2:31pm CEST

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a trinity, what, what are the chances that we're going to see some kind of american intervention to compel some sort of an agreement here? well, we know they're sending more forces to the region and they hope to get the same effect that they've got right at the beginning of the soon after october of deterrence. and they hope that would be enough because left the 40 days for the elections in the us. this is the main thing that you know, the dividing the ministration and americans and as a whole, care for what's gonna happen with their bodies to the white house. and they don't want to find themselves dragged into a wider war in the least though they also know they cannot leave israel high and dry. in case there is a need because there is a wider f offense coming from the ring inside. they will have to step in, but they will try to find the most minimal way and effective way to do it without getting dragged into you know, and need for further than that. it could, the focus is definitely inside america right now. we're not, you know, into the, this is also some of the histone people are seeing was sort of, you know, we've been seeing the american officials in the last 24. i was trying to very much distance themselves from israel's actions. sort of saying, please don't drag,
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i send to us, we don't want anything to do with it. oh, thanks. as always, w's media expert shante rosa. you're welcome, michael. many things as well as death confirmed not only by israel, but now also by has bullet itself, is a massive blow to the round back group which has led since 1992. he's a, here's a closer look at the legacy of hezbollah is long term secretary general, a law the last video showing us on this wallet. your own condemning is realized. pedro attack on has blog members earlier this month. and one of them, i just, rollo was a familiar face on t v screens. but the fiery orator with a loyal shield following rarely appeared in public. this roller was what it has been was bounding members during his 3 decades. as the leader has ballade
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became one of the most powerful para military groups in the middle east. and those role and made is a real cause. our jenna mean cementing hospitalized alliances with the ran and palestinian millage in groups including i'm us. does. raleigh was partnered with leading as well as war of attrition, against really forces occupying southern lebanon and leading to their pull out in 2000. that withdrawal turned him into a hero in the eyes of many in the arab world. and full, started influenced inside love and on in 2006 has bought, bought a 34 day war with is real to a stalemate, further adding to it as well as popularity. but during serious civil war, some of the error will criticize mr. wallace for helping prop up syrian president bush, all of us following how much is october 7th terror attacks on israel has blog again, firing that is really positions along the northern part of its loving on which the
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swallow claimed would detract as really forces from the war against tomas and gaza but his hezbollah stepped up its cross border attacks is real, increasingly turned its attention to the enemy on its northern border. this is real sadness, rolla was eliminated. it's massive error strike on has bless headquarters in southern bay route hans young option or is senior director at the counter extremism project in berlin. with experience in international diplomacy, intelligence and security hands, eoc of hezbollah has confirmed the death of its leader. our son is rela, at the hands of israel. how significant is this moment? how precarious a moment? oh, this is very significant. and so obviously in general terms, anyone could be replaced, but that's why that is really the figure head office ball out they needed. we made
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response from the small group and they've been on really the prevailing force in the country and positioned as well as a key. lynch been in the regional network of proxies of your ok. so he is not easily to be replaced in addition to other things that happened over the last couple of months. once of course, the removal of these block communications infrastructure, the pages, the walkie talkies which now makes it much harder for his but to communicate but also over a longer period. the beginning of the 2nd and 3rd layout of the c'mon infrastructure by his ball. i always ball up by his rail through s trucks. so the organization is in a exceptionally big state right now. it's not just test on his roll out. the math is really strike on b routes. uh that the neighborhood was aimed at his ball as main headquarters. what do we know about how intact or disrupted his bowl is? wider leadership structure is after the strike. to not just after
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this strike after the strikes over the last couple of months is paula is at the moment still missing a number to so for us to critical skills that critical skilled it misses a come out and control structure of the big gate, which is the big acreage just focusing on as well. so it is really hot for his ball not to organize any kind of counter strike at the moment. of course that will be some rockets, but at the moment all eyes off on camera, always going iran to react. not just after losing the need out of our mass near intent on a couple of weeks ago, but also now losing the head of its most significant proxy and most important preference against this rattle deterrence mechanism against this row. this is, i think, district key strategic region, the rest of the, for the region right now. some perspective here, the killing of her son as well. the latest intensive bombing of alleged as bullet targets in be rude and southern 11 on by israel. some people have called this
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a strategy of escalate to de escalate. what are the risk involved? well, i mean, the war aims will be as red as defined and announced by israel against his ball not very different than it was against. i'm asked for, i'm us, it blows absolutely clear that they want to destroy the organization as such and be seen how long they struck codes to do so in god's out for many, many months. right now with this part of the a was always more a military military came, bushing is going on back into the north of leave and on the you want the lead time to the resume compatible as well. to strike is to make it harder for his point to strike as route or to do come on to rates into his room. now we'll have to see what is the next step for me as well, because as i said, i'd be surprised that extremely we can state if they want to go after a sustain weakening of the military. and since dr. office black,
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this would be the most to your painting, a fairly bleak picture for has bala and i think by extension iran as well here. what do you think will be going on inside the ronnie and leadership right at this moment? why experience from having served to the german embassy for many years in jeron is that this is always the critic district decision making. it's not just if i'm unable decides it's the leadership structure of the regime as such in the supreme national security council. now, they will have to make a decision if they are reacting in the way that the reacted to the bombing of their consulate and embassy in moscow as a couple of months ago in april. this could again end up in a embarrassing display. all staff fire which would not be a good positioning for them in the region. if they do not react, as they have not yet done. so before the strike against time you're in chair on.
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then all of the approaches in the region will have to ask themselves one simple question. how reliable is iran as a partner? if i am going to add on, i can get killed if i stay home and i'm projected i to get killed. and iran is not reacting, so iran is in a very tricky situation, balancing they absolutely need it. response from their perspective from did with the dean shelf. actually this escalating into regional conflict and drawing in the united states. and tara is quite clear that they do not want to have a direct confrontation with the united states because they know that they can not prevail and supplement the tank. well, that brings up a number of questions, including how much influence does around really have over tactical and strategic decisions by has bo, as well eroding the influence over its book, sees uh, differentiate it, it depends on how close the around really is to the structure. so what these are
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certainly among the more independent ones is but on the other hand, east in the rain and creation, it was filled up with, you mean, and in syrian health in the eighty's and ninety's in live on. it is the closest they ever had to real proxy force that it can direct from tara and care on has the ability, especially now that last slice no longer with us to guide is blocked into a response. but it seems sufficient or helpful. however, to add on itself less too much on the pressure right now to respond itself as well . so i'm curious. what role does the united states play here? washington's been appealing for a ceasefire. is israel appearing to be going in the opposite direction of the says? well, the united states is in a really difficult situation. now. be very close to the presidential elections business, not the time decided regional war. yeah,
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of course the united states as did the french as to the whole range of our country . you germany called for that ceasefire and the time you always seem to be accepted in private but then rejected it in public. it's really hot to see how the united states would come from the moment that we are in to a more stable situation in the short term. in the medium long term. of course it has to be some kind of agreement or motors to move in to being found. the threat to experience has been being in live and on 18 years until 2000 from 819821 with and then again during the 34 day war in 2006, neither one of these experience were really valued, right? positive indian for as well, so it has to be some kind of the tyrants between both sides, whatever is left of his ball. and israel is fabulous because one thing is clear, the military infrastructure office ball lot is we can, but it's still a very powerful political force in the block. and it is
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a very powerful social pause and liberating, especially among the she community. so it's, but it's not going to disappear with it this or that's, that's rather it's weakened in its ability to operationally act, but it's still a policy for his time and his perspective, our thanks as always to hans yakobelli. thank you so much for more, let's now speak to dw corresponded jack paris, who joins us now from brussels. jack the e u has been calling for de escalation in the middle east. where does know as well as death, sending to that. so it's a really interesting ones of european union seeing this. it essentially does in some way, highlights that lack of power in this issue. they will have to walk through the channels of the united states. from your perspective, hezbollah, military wing is on the sanctions, but the political wing isn't on the you sign. since i don't think any european
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capitals and not here in the institutions, there wouldn't be any celebrations or any sadness necessarily about the death of us on those are all a, but what they will be thinking about is what they can do going forward. there's been consistent cause for the escalation, we sort of the you engine, general assembly, individual countries has done it. the european union is foreign policy chief. all of them say that they're working to provide a void and or like war in the middle east. but it will be questioning now how to do that. and we've seen that city that the european union since october, the 7th, and the full lights and everything that's happened in gaza that he has really struggled to assess its influence, especially on the use right. the government use top diplomat dojo chapparal. it stated yesterday that quote, a tax against 11 non have created such a great number of civilian casualties that it cannot be justified by the right of
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self defense. what is the you doing regarding the latest escalations in the middle east? so the european union, as it consistently does, in all of it, statements wants to save. israel has the right to self defense, but the civilian casualties must be minimized. and that's the case with garza and all of the statements. and that is the continuing case with lab and all night. what's tricky for the european union is that nothing yahoo and this strike that actually hits it, you know, what is essentially part of the city and hits and that, and that's where all that, that those strikes off causing um, causing civilian deaths as well. got it. that's a dw corresponded jack parents in brussels and we'll end things there. you are. max, looks at how to keep germany's october, the kind
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of always in cigna to start over sized run. see with caching and full ways where it's 09 the next on d, w, he's the head of a country that no longer exists. the deadline is homeland of 2 beds has been occupied by china, almost 75 years. the deadline, norma with time to sing for his country this he received the nobel peace to best festus, china in 45 minutes on d. w. we
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say, as i said the giving off every weekend on d w. the security check. how safe is unix october fast life with mary jane? our house has made of him good for the environment and trends that are a look at how the model leah could be. they became a social entrepreneur. all this in more coming up on duramax, the october 1st is in full swing in germany and safety is a top priority,
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especially for women attending the festivities. what are some of the dues and.

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