or full para military groups in the middle east. and those role and made is a real cause are jeremy cementing hospitalized alliances with a ran and palestinian millage in groups. including a boss. because raleigh was partnered with leading hezbollah as war of attrition, against really forces occupying southern lebanon and leading to their pull out in 2000. that withdrawal turned him into a hero in the eyes of many of the arab world. and full, started influenced inside lebanon. in 2006 has been lost on a 34 day war with is real to a stalemate, further adding to it as well as popularity, but during serious civil war, some of the error will criticize mr. wallace for helping prop up syrian president bush, all of us following how much is october 7th terror attacks on israel has ballade begin firing. that is really positions along the northern part of its loveland, on which, as well acclaimed, would detract as really forces from the war against

a mazda in gaza. but as has the last step up, its cross border attacks is real increasingly turned its attention to the enemy on its northern border is real sadness, rolla was eliminated. it's massive error strike on has below us headquarters in southern bay root lower blooming field is a best selling author and middle east analyst in washington, dc. i asked or what's next for has bola afternoon as well as death, as well as this is a game changer, but it isn't the game over. i mean, after all, israel took out the man but not the missiles. they still have a potent arsenal. um. precision guided missiles and it is really population centers any. this was the, the store house of weapons. i kept this really military leaders up at night for the past decade with night sweats. it wasn't a loss. it was his bo, uh so if they have some kind of succession in place and they still can really

present a deadly threat to israel. the question is, who's standing and who's willing to lead, given the short life span further leaders. so let's get this straight. you're, you're essentially saying that has a bullet can continue to operate and attack israel even after it's leader. and many top commanders are gone and still do damage causation. and they certainly have the capability. and the idea of spokesman stood before his people on the world and said, look, this isn't over. we have 2 goals before this fight is, is finished. the number one is to bring our hostages home, and number 2 is to secure our borders, which means bring the people back. the 60000 is really civilians who have been displaced along the northern border. and israel's country has shrunk, you know, significantly over the past 11 months. not necessarily because there been a fight in the north, but because there has been a war of attrition. so i think israel goal really is to kind of borrow a phrase from hogs, which is to go nasty, brutish and short. you know,

go hard and try to wipe out his bones so that they can bring the people back to the north. but it's castro gaze into a possible future. many observers we've spoken to believe israel would have a hard time in reading lab and on do to as well as strategic advantage on the ground still to some a ground. defensive is a minute. do you think israel will go ahead with the absolutely lessons learned that awful, less than that hard lesson in 1982 and to a certain extent in 2006 of 11 on india's riley consciousness is sort of like vietnam in the united states. it's, it's, this is synonymous with a kind of a long, miserable slide which ultimately ad best you know, was a draw, but perhaps even a loss. so i think they like to avoid the ground floor. on the other hand, they do believe that by threatening and mobilizing the potential for ground war, that's what's going to bring them eventually around to a 2 piece. what they consider a kind of once and for all peace rather than fighting this war every maybe 6 months,

2 or 3 years, this might buy them at best. again, this is a very sad and cynical view, but perhaps realistic. it might get them another 10 years. the occasional viewer might believe that there is not a warrant gauze or right now, but of course there is where do the latest developments leave the war and gaza as well as the we might have missed the announcement because there's so many headlines flying yesterday. but the idea of has declared sort of semi victory, you know, we've, we've defeated hamas and gaza. so that is a good thing for those of us. we're pushing for a cease fire meter from the united states where, where we are pushing for a diplomatic solution. so if natania who can claim victory in gaza, that's a good sign of the other thing that's important to remember is that israel was surprised on october 7th. it was not only an operational disaster and embarrassment, but it was an intelligence failure. these precision strikes leaders like, like, house on us rolla or before that is small on yeah, the mazda of leader who was visiting a ron, that's

a way of re establishing israel's superior already on the intelligence point of view, which again establishes deterrence. so all those kind of wins, but there is role to consider a win and re establishing strength, delivering the 1st blow going back to what they're playbook, which is preemptive strikes. does bring us some momentum and hope that we can reach a ceasefire. i want to talk about iran just for a moment. um it, it's called the latest attacks on 11 on a, by israel, short sighted, and called for a united front by its proxies. does a run have a strategy at this point after both from us and has bola, have sustained significant books? iraq, just a strategy is a long term strategy. they have a clock ticking down backwards in palestine square and to hey, wrong to 2040, which is a doomsday clock for the end of israel. they are playing the long game. they prefer aware of attrition. and that's why israel is pushing really hard to go fast. and

furious, you know, they, they call israel calls you ron and octopus with a arms. richard encircling israel, pass on this raw and, and his bowler. i turned the right arm that israel has just blown off. so when we ask you what will be around do next, i think the most important question to ask on top of that is what we mean i'd states do next. that's who they fear. iran, you know, the president just stood at the un in new york and talked about opening up relations or, or warming relations with the west. if the united states, you know, parks there battleships outside of outside of the rom, in the waters there and say, and sort of shows a real source of strength and power. i think that maybe we can do what we've always done in the past, you know, 11 months, which is that one word don't of deterrence. lower blooming, fill the middle east analyst in washington, dc. many, many thanks for your time and your perspective. thank you. the killing of how sun does roll up. the latest intensive bombing of, of lead shows,

bullet targets in be rude and southern lebanon by israel. some people have called this strategy of escalate to de escalate. but what are the risk involved? a question. i put 2 hands, you all come schindler, senior director of the center extremism project in berlin as well. i mean, the war aims will be as red as defined and announced by israel against his ball, not very different than it was against. i'm asked what i'm us. it was absolutely clear that they want to destroy the organization as such and be seen how long they struck codes to do so in guys out for many, many months right now with this part of the a was always more a military military came, bushing is split up back into the north of leave and on, and we want the lead time and we met to make it out of israel. to strike is to make it harder for his point to strike as route or to do come under rates into israel. now we'll have to see what is the next step for me as well, because as i said,

i'd be surprised that extremely we can state if they want to go after a sustain weakening of the military. and since dr. office black, this would be the moment. you're painting a fairly bleak picture for hezbollah and i think by extension iran as well here. what do you think will be going on inside the ronnie and leadership right at this moment. while i experience from having served of the german embassy for many years in jeron is that this is always a critic district decision making. it's not just if i'm in a wood decides it's the leadership structure of the regime as such in the supreme national security council. now they will have to make a decision if they are reacting in the way that the reacted to the bombing off their consulate. an embassy in damascus, a couple of months ago in april, this could again end up in a embarrassing display of the fire to which would not be a good positioning for them in the region. if they do not react,

as they have not yet done. so before the striking games come here in terra, and then all of the boxes in the region will have to ask themselves one simple question. how reliable is iran as a poplar? if i am going to add on, i can get killed. if i stay home and unprotected, i could get killed and iran is not reacting. so iran is in a very tricky situation, balancing a absolutely need it response from their perspective from did with the danger of actually this escalating into original conflict and drawing in the united states. and tara is quite clear that they do not want to have a direct confrontation with the united states because they know that they can not prevail in supplement. well, that brings up a number of questions, including how much influence does around really have over tactical and strategic decisions by his bo well, eroni,

the influence over its proxies are differentiate. it depends on how close the around really is to these approaches what these are certainly among the more independent ones. it's been on the other hand, east in the rain and creation. it was filled up with you mean and, and see are in health in the eighty's and ninety's in live on. it is the closest they ever have to real proxy force that it can direct from kara and the care on has the ability, especially now that necessarily is no longer with us. to guide is blocked into a response that it's deemed sufficient or helpful. however, to add on itself less too much on the pressure right now to respond itself as well . so i'm curious. what role does the united states play here? washington? it's been appealing for a ceasefire. is israel appearing to be going in the opposite direction of the on

the more well, the united states is in a really difficult situation. now, be very close to the presidential elections business, not the time decided regional war. of course, the united states, as did the french as to the whole range of our country. you germany called for that ceasefire and now seem to be accepted in private but then rejected it in public. it's really hot to see how the united states would come from the moment that we are in to a more stable situation in the short term. in the medium long term. of course it has to be some kind of agreement or motors of into being found. these threat to experience has been being in live and on 18 years until 2000 from 819821 with and then again during the 34 day war in 2006, neither one of these experience were really valued, right? positive indian for as well, so it has to be some kind of the tyrants between both sides. whatever is left off

is paula and israel established because one thing is clear, the military infrastructure office ball lot is we could, but it's still a very powerful political force in the block. and it is a very powerful social for the liberating, especially among the she community. so it's, but it's not going to disappear with it this or that as well. it's weakened in its ability to operationally act, but it's still a positive to for his time. and his perspective, our thanks as always, to hans jakob should learn and again, he is a senior director at the counter extremism project in berlin to get the perspective on all of this within the you, i spoke with dw corresponded jack parents in russell's. he told us where in his role as death fit into the use call for de escalation in the middle east. it's it's a really interesting ones of european union seeing this. it essentially does in some way, highlights that lack of power in this issue. they will have to walk through the tunnels

of the united states. from your perspective, hezbollah was military wing is on the science, but the political wing isn't on the you science. since i don't think any european capitals and not here in the institutions, there wouldn't be any celebrations or any sadness necessarily about the death of us on those are all a, but what they will be thinking about is what they can do going forward. there's been consistent cause for the escalation, we sort of the un general assembly, individual countries has done it. the european union is foreign policy chief. all of them say that they're working to provide a void and or like war in the middle east, but it will be questioning now how to do that. and we've seen that city that the european union since october, the 7th, and the full lights and everything that's happened in gaza that he has really struggled to assess his influence, especially on the used by the government. and a reminder of our top stories this our,

his bullet has confirmed the death of its leader, her son as relevant in, in his really air striking they route on friday. he was credited with turning the lebanese militia into a major fighting force. the group has failed to continue its battle against israel . ron has also announced that a senior general in its revolutionary guard is also killed in the strike that targeted this roller to iran has called for a strong response to israel following the loot strike. israel continues to carry out appear strikes and what it describes as has both sites across level. not these really military says it has hit more than a 140 targets since friday night. as bullock has responded by firing rockets in northern israel as well as the is really occupied. go on hines, and we roll and it, they're coming up. we examine just how saves units october fence. that's next on

your next unlike look and thanks for watching is more news at the top of the hour. bye for the security check. how safe is unix october fast life with mary jane. our house is made of hand good for the environment and trends that are a look at how the model reactivated became a social entrepreneur. all this in more coming up on duramax. the october 1st is in full swing in germany and safety is a top priority,

especially for women attending the festivities. what are some of the dues and.